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^^ This. It was very obvious Japan was lying about the real numbers due to their (and IOC) initial desperation to hold the Olympics whatever it took. Thankfully, Australia, Canada and the UK finally gave them a reality check. If anything this whole mess kind of diminished my usual respect for the way Japanese do things. 

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But the virus is arriving later at island nations naturally, and because they can limit or cut off access to their territory quickly. 

- look at the late arrival of the virus in Cuba; 

- Japan; very low numbers in the Philippines (a few weeks ago) despite the large presence of Chinese nationals there; 

- Taiwan (which practically does NOT have direct contact with mainland China);

- very late in Oahu, Hawaii.

What about stats from North Korea?  Mongolia?  

Unless hospitals report the numbers to their respective Departments of Health, there really is NO accurate count for this virus.  

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14 hours ago, Ikarus360 said:

^^ This. It was very obvious Japan was lying about the real numbers due to their (and IOC) initial desperation to hold the Olympics whatever it took. Thankfully, Australia, Canada and the UK finally gave them a reality check. If anything this whole mess kind of diminished my usual respect for the way Japanese do things. 

I think a lot of it had to do with the effect COVID-19 would have on the Japanese economy. Their economy was already teetering on the edge of a recession. Now the question isn't whether or not Japan will go into recession but how bad it will be. And Shinzo Abe, like all politicians in democratic nations, often take the fall for a faltering economy come election time.  I mentioned earlier there was an article stating cancelling the Olympics would shave 1.4% off Japan's annual GDP so I imagine Japan was probably desperate to hold the Olympics to avoid any more adverse effects on the economy.

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16 hours ago, baron-pierreIV said:

- Taiwan (which practically does NOT have direct contact with mainland China);

In the last decade they've been more open with mainland China (even though the new anti-mainland government which rules since 2016 has soured these relations) and most of the tourism Taiwan receives is from mainlanders. Taiwan dodged the virus for two months because they banned the entrance of all mainlanders very early. Problem is the virus is not exclusively a mainland China thing anymore hence why their COVID cases are slowly rising now.

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What about stats from North Korea?  Mongolia?  

There are strong rumours the virus did arrived in NK and that the government quietly killed those who were infected. It's difficult to know anything precise from NK given their orwellian censorship machinery. 

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- Japan; very low numbers in the Philippines (a few weeks ago) despite the large presence of Chinese nationals there; 

Philippines now has more than 1000 cases according to this article: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/03/29/virus-cases-in-philippines-exceed-1000-with-272-new-case-recorded

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https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1092504/tokyo-2020-president-warns-ifs-costs

So now the discussion has turned to "how are we going to pay for this?" and it seems Tokyo is eyeing the respective IFs to chip in. The question remains how much extra cash will be needed and which federations pay. To add onto that, suppose an IF says no, how would Tokyo and IOC react? Threaten the IF with removal for the Tokyo Olympics? Hard to see how that would work with IFs like FINA or IAAF. Regardless, the money has to come from some where and while we don't have official figures yet, I'd venture to say that Tokyo doesn't have the cash to pay for all the costs themselves.

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30 minutes ago, stryker said:

https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1092504/tokyo-2020-president-warns-ifs-costs

So now the discussion has turned to "how are we going to pay for this?" and it seems Tokyo is eyeing the respective IFs to chip in. The question remains how much extra cash will be needed and which federations pay. To add onto that, suppose an IF says no, how would Tokyo and IOC react? Threaten the IF with removal for the Tokyo Olympics? Hard to see how that would work with IFs like FINA or IAAF. Regardless, the money has to come from some where and while we don't have official figures yet, I'd venture to say that Tokyo doesn't have the cash to pay for all the costs themselves.

Hasn‘t the IOC in the past bragged about being able to cover the losses in case an Olympics would be cancelled? If that wasn‘t empty words, then here you go.

Many IFs only survive on Olympic money and I wouldn‘t put it past the IOC or the organisers to blackmail them. But if the IF goes bankrupt afterwards, what is won? Or maybe it‘s a cynical way to get rid of some sports like that...

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I don't believe the statistics from any country.

On 3/28/2020 at 8:27 AM, StefanMUC said:

Isn’t it a strange coincidence that we’re seeing a sudden surge in cases in Tokyo this week and the Gov asking people to stay home even during cherry blossoming?

You’d almost think the previous figures were so low while the Olympics weren’t postponed yet. All a bit fishy...

I don't believe the statistics from any country

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19 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

Hasn‘t the IOC in the past bragged about being able to cover the losses in case an Olympics would be cancelled? If that wasn‘t empty words, then here you go.

Many IFs only survive on Olympic money and I wouldn‘t put it past the IOC or the organisers to blackmail them. But if the IF goes bankrupt afterwards, what is won? Or maybe it‘s a cynical way to get rid of some sports like that...

Well this raises a whole other issue. How many IFs, especially those that are smaller and survive on Olympic money, how many will go bankrupt the longer this crisis goes on as events are either cancelled or rescheduled? Your heavyweights like FINA, IAAF, and FIFA can manage but others may not. Frankly I think the IOC could save some money if the likes of tennis, golf, and football sat this next SOGs out.

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14 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

Hasn‘t the IOC in the past bragged about being able to cover the losses in case an Olympics would be cancelled? If that wasn‘t empty words, then here you go.

Many IFs only survive on Olympic money and I wouldn‘t put it past the IOC or the organisers to blackmail them. But if the IF goes bankrupt afterwards, what is won? Or maybe it‘s a cynical way to get rid of some sports like that...

It's rumored that the IOC has at least $20 billion in the bank (supposedly 3rd only to Apple and the Vatican in terms of reserve cash).  This is the time to open that reserve box.  That's what it's there for.  They can easily recoup the amounts by Beijing 2022 and Paris 2024.  

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Tokyo Olympic head expects call from IOC's Bach on new date

Tokyo Olympic President Yoshiro Mori said Monday he expects to talk with IOC President Thomas Bach this week about potential dates and other details for the rescheduled games next year.

The International Olympic Committee and Japanese organizers last week postponed the Olympics until 2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic.

"I anticipate speaking to President Bach this week," Mori said, speaking at the opening of an organizing committee executive board meeting. "He tends to call me directly, and that puts me in trouble because I don't have good command of English."

Mori has repeatedly said the Olympics will be held no later than next summer and many reports suggest it will be in the same July-August slot.

This year's games were to have opened on July 24 and closed on August 9. The corresponding weeks next year would mean a July 23 opening ceremony.

"Opinions on both sides have been compiled, whether spring or summer," Mori said. "There are opinions for both options and they both have advantages and disadvantages that are being compared and then will be decided."

After holding out for weeks, local organizers and the IOC last week postponed under pressure from athletes, national Olympic bodies, and sports federations.

The decision on a date is expected to come quickly. The athletes are demanding it, and any reorganization revolves around a firm time slot.

Both Mori and CEO Toshiro Muto have said the the cost of rescheduling will be "massive" -- local reports suggest several billion dollars -- with most of the expenses borne by Japanese taxpayers.

Date:March 30, 2020 

News source:The mainichi

Link to this article:https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200330/p2g/00m/0sp/071000c

 

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29 minutes ago, stryker said:

Makes sense.  Everything moves exactly 1 year minus 1 day.  Should be relatively easy to reset

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Bit of history:  Who was the Japanese official who said that Tokyo has had bad luck in being named an Olympic host city -- and he may have been right.  Specifically, I wonder if he referred to the late naming of Sapporo to stage the marathon events -- and as a coupling, it recreated the JOINT cancellation of the 1940 Olympiad?  At that time, it was the same country that hosted both Summer & Winter Games.  So, when Nazi Germany grabbed Poland and the Sudetenland, and Imperial Japan bombed Pearl Harbor (crazy nation of Japan pretty much sealing its own fate in terms of Olympic dreams), it was NOT only Tokyo that was the loser for 1940, but Sapporo as well --although of course, preparations at that time were all on a much smaller scale.  

And here we are, 80 years later -- and a Tokyo-Sapporo configuration of the same year, again has to be cancelled.  Is everything on a century cycle? To wit:

- the double awarding of 2024/28 mirrors that of the same horse-trading arrangement of 1924/28/32.  

- the 1918 pandemic of the Spanish flu

- the cancellation of Tokyo/Sapporo 2020 to +1. 

:unsure:

(What will happen to Russia's participation for next year?  They were also not playing in 1940.)  

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11 hours ago, Faiyez said:

Russia will remain wholly banned. Why would that be any different?

Well, that's NOT true.  Their M & W's Indoor Volleyball teams qualified for Tokyo -- if this happened.  I think their flag cannot appear in the OC or at the medal ceremonies -- but select athletes and teams, those who have qualified fairly, are in.  But if they meet all the penalties required of them by next spring, then I don't see the IOC banning their flag from full participation.  

Because only 57% of sports had finished their qualifications (and some Russian teams are already in there), they are going to try everything to change the picture and be fully accredited by 2021.  They have one more year to try and fix things in their favor.  

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Sapporo to remain as Olympic venue for marathons, race walks

Kit McConnell, the International Olympic Committee's sports director, said Thursday he anticipates the marathon and race walking events will remain in Sapporo next year for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, which have been postponed until 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Speaking on a conference call, McConnell said he did not think that either the Sapporo venue – a late change to avoid the extreme heat and humidity of Tokyo's summer – or the events' schedule would change.

All events in Sapporo were to take place over the Olympics' last four days, with the women's marathon now on Aug. 7, and the men's race on the same day as the closing ceremony, now set for Aug. 8, 2021.

The IOC made the decision to move the races to the most northern of Japan's four main islands after the world athletics championships in Doha demonstrated the problems of staging endurance events in extreme heat. In November, Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike finally bowed to the inevitable and accepted the decision.

Although IOC President Thomas Bach generalized after the postponement was announced that every athlete who has qualified for 2020 remains qualified, McConnell added a detail to that, saying the final decision would be up to each national Olympic committee.

"In all sports, the NOC retains the right to select the individual athlete from anyone who is eligible to fill that place," McConnell said, saying that rule was defined in the Olympic Charter.

"That right of the NOC will remain in place for next year."

He also said that ages for qualifying established by international federations would be discussed and hopefully hammered out in the next few weeks, a statement of interest to men's soccer players for whom the Olympics is primarily an under-23 competition.

Date:April 3,2020

News source:The Japan Times

Link to this article:https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2020/04/03/olympics/sapporo-remain-olympic-venue-marathons-race-walks/#.Xobc2Or7TIV

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On 3/31/2020 at 6:13 AM, baron-pierreIV said:

Well, that's NOT true.  Their M & W's Indoor Volleyball teams qualified for Tokyo -- if this happened.  I think their flag cannot appear in the OC or at the medal ceremonies -- but select athletes and teams, those who have qualified fairly, are in.  But if they meet all the penalties required of them by next spring, then I don't see the IOC banning their flag from full participation.  

Because only 57% of sports had finished their qualifications (and some Russian teams are already in there), they are going to try everything to change the picture and be fully accredited by 2021.  They have one more year to try and fix things in their favor.  

Meet what by next spring? Russia's ban is for four years. I don't see how a one year delay to the Olympics changes things.

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5 hours ago, Rob. said:

Meet what by next spring? Russia's ban is for four years. I don't see how a one year delay to the Olympics changes things.

Actually, and this is proof that we are in fact living in a bizarro world.. baron does have a point (sort of).  Russia is trying to appeal the ban.  So perhaps with the Olympics pushed back a year, it gives them more time to appeal.  Obviously they would need to win that appeal, which yes, does seem pretty unlikely

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6 hours ago, Rob. said:

Meet what by next spring? Russia's ban is for four years. I don't see how a one year delay to the Olympics changes things.

Wasn't aware that it was a 4-year ban.  But hey, if Vlady and his merry band of billionaires can round up a few $500 million TOP sponsors, I am sure that 4-year ban might disappear quickly.   Does the ban extend to FIFA and FINA?  So, will Russia make a full appearance to the postponed world championships?  

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Has there been any word on Football qualifications and regulations? Will they extend the 23 year old age limit to 24 so the ones that were on the cusp can still play? Or will the 23 year olds have to sit this one out? What about qualification?

 

As an American, this is important to me, because truly our 18-23 year olds are playing better and stronger football (especially against international sides and in international clubs) than our older players. Want to know if there's any hope for an American appearance in football :D

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1 minute ago, anthonyliberatori said:

Has there been any word on Football qualifications and regulations? Will they extend the 23 year old age limit to 24 so the ones that were on the cusp can still play? Or will the 23 year olds have to sit this one out? What about qualification?

 

As an American, this is important to me, because truly our 18-23 year olds are playing better and stronger football (especially against international sides and in international clubs) than our older players. Want to know if there's any hope for an American appearance in football :D

Actually, I saw this story pop up earlier..

Olympic men's football age limit raised to 24 after Tokyo Games postponement

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