stryker Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 The logistics of a postponement seem impractical to overcome (isn't the Olympic Village set to have tenants move in shortly after the Games?) IN\n addition to all the accommodation as far as hotels and ticketing, if we do see a postponement, then I think we see a highly scaled down version of a Tokyo Olympics, one that probably also comes in at a loss financially. I'd have to search for the link but it was from insidethegames, a cancellation of the Olympics would shave off something like 1.4% of Japan's annual GDP. That doesn't seem like much until you consider the fact that Japan is already in the beginnings of a recession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 Just now, stryker said: The logistics of a postponement seem impractical to overcome (isn't the Olympic Village set to have tenants move in shortly after the Games?) IN\n addition to all the accommodation as far as hotels and ticketing, if we do see a postponement, then I think we see a highly scaled down version of a Tokyo Olympics, one that probably also comes in at a loss financially. I'd have to search for the link but it was from insidethegames, a cancellation of the Olympics would shave off something like 1.4% of Japan's annual GDP. That doesn't seem like much until you consider the fact that Japan is already in the beginnings of a recession. We're setting a new standard for impractical these days as the world tries to figure out how to react to the pandemic. Yes, there are a zillion logistical challenges to figure out that make this near impossible. At this point though, what's the alternative? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyliberatori Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, stryker said: The logistics of a postponement seem impractical to overcome (isn't the Olympic Village set to have tenants move in shortly after the Games?) IN\n addition to all the accommodation as far as hotels and ticketing, if we do see a postponement, then I think we see a highly scaled down version of a Tokyo Olympics, one that probably also comes in at a loss financially. I'd have to search for the link but it was from insidethegames, a cancellation of the Olympics would shave off something like 1.4% of Japan's annual GDP. That doesn't seem like much until you consider the fact that Japan is already in the beginnings of a recession. This point makes me think about the money the TV companies would make off of an Olympics if a larger percentage of the population is at home watching on TV. While unethical on many levels, from a business standpoint, more people stuck in their homes = more people watching on TV, and considering an already-lax July/August TV schedule for sports besides the Olympics, I wonder if the TV companies will also lobby in favor of an on-time Olympics, unethically betting on the increase in streaming revenue. It is very shady and almost inhumane that it could come at the health of the athletes, but we are talking about the IOC ... they're no stranger to that. And god forbid they can help bring some peace and happiness during or at the end of this tragedy, I think both Japan and the IOC want to be on their version of the "positive" side of history. That's truly the only justification I can think of for not only not postponing Tokyo 2020, but being so adamant about not doing it. I think that's what's getting me, is how strong they are in their position. While I agree with them that an on-time Games could very well happen, as the virus didn't even exist three months ago, so it's hard to justify canceling something in four months, the qualification period which ensures that the best athletes from the best NOCs compete, which is going on now, which will create, as a previous poster said, a "watered-down" Olympics. Tough times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stryker Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, Quaker2001 said: We're setting a new standard for impractical these days as the world tries to figure out how to react to the pandemic. Yes, there are a zillion logistical challenges to figure out that make this near impossible. At this point though, what's the alternative? I don't disagree. My point is it will be impossible to simply postpone the Olympics and have them go on as they would. The OV? I assume you'd have a smaller number of athletes participating that probably would stay in hotels (I'm not familiar with property laws in Japan so I don't know if there is any way the government could step in and hold off on people moving in until the following year). I'd expect smaller crowds, maybe even some events being moved to smaller venues. In terms of alternatives outside of cancellation, the only other one that comes to mind is giving Tokyo the 2032 Olympics so they can still use most of the venues though they'd probably need some touching up after 12 years and I am sure by that point Tokyo would need additional housing so a 2nd OV would be built. Needless to say, it would still be a costly decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, stryker said: I don't disagree. My point is it will be impossible to simply postpone the Olympics and have them go on as they would. The OV? I assume you'd have a smaller number of athletes participating that probably would stay in hotels (I'm not familiar with property laws in Japan so I don't know if there is any way the government could step in and hold off on people moving in until the following year). I'd expect smaller crowds, maybe even some events being moved to smaller venues. In terms of alternatives outside of cancellation, the only other one that comes to mind is giving Tokyo the 2032 Olympics so they can still use most of the venues though they'd probably need some touching up after 12 years and I am sure by that point Tokyo would need additional housing so a 2nd OV would be built. Needless to say, it would still be a costly decision. The Village is the big sticking point. I don't know how they get around that one. But they need to figure it out. Yes, it's possible they'll need to reserve alternate housing for people and crowds may be smaller as a result. Although I don't smaller venues are an option.. what's not being used that would be available? I'm confident the next Summer Olympics will be held in Tokyo. I'm guessing 2021 at this point, but who knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikarus360 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 It had to be done. Still though, it's fucking depressing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Quaker2001 said: Ahhh baron, I do miss telling you how dead wrong you are. So thank you for this opportunity. You are wrong. These are extremely unprecedented times. It is very possible - and I would argue likely - that we could have a Summer Olympics in 2021. The IOC has said cancellation is NOT an option. Postponement is. NBC will not have a major say in this and if they did, they would probably advocate to move it to next Summer, not to push it back by a month. And don't forget there's also the matter of the Paralympics as well Forgot about the Paralympics -- but they're really secondary to everything. The Olympics are the main star; and the Paras only exist on the largesse of the IOC. It is what it is -- but to me, the P's shouldn't even be in the picture. Sorry, I disagree, Quak. I think you're wrong. Overall, a slightly delayed SOGs or full cancellation is the lesser evil from postponement for one year. I just don't see it happening in 2021. Edited March 22, 2020 by baron-pierreIV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, baron-pierreIV said: Forgot about the Paralympics -- but they're really secondary to everything. The Olympics are the main star; and the Paras only exist on the largesse of the IOC. It is what it is -- but to me, the P's shouldn't even be in the picture. Sorry, I disagree, Quak. I think you're wrong. Overall, a slightly delayed SOGs or full cancellation is the lesser evil from postponement for one year. I just don't see it happening in 2021. A full cancellation is a lesser evil than a postponement? Seriously? Again, we are living in unprecedented times. I had said for weeks that a postponement would be nearly impossible. Well, now the limits of possible are going to be tested. There's going to be an Olympics in Tokyo, I'm very confident of that. But I don't think pushing them back a month or 2 will be the answer. I think we're looking at a full postponement. And I'm more confident of it now that you don't think it's possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tower Bridge Fox Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 "On the one hand, there are significant improvements in Japan where the people are warmly welcoming the Olympic flame. This could strengthen the IOC’s confidence in the Japanese hosts that the IOC could, with certain safety restrictions, organise Olympic Games in the country whilst respecting its principle of safeguarding the health of everyone involved. On the other hand, there is a dramatic increase in cases and new outbreaks of COVID-19 in different countries on different continents. This led the EB to the conclusion that the IOC needs to take the next step in its scenario-planning. " I still hope for the first of these options . I prize the event in itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, The Tower Bridge Fox said: "On the one hand, there are significant improvements in Japan where the people are warmly welcoming the Olympic flame. This could strengthen the IOC’s confidence in the Japanese hosts that the IOC could, with certain safety restrictions, organise Olympic Games in the country whilst respecting its principle of safeguarding the health of everyone involved. On the other hand, there is a dramatic increase in cases and new outbreaks of COVID-19 in different countries on different continents. This led the EB to the conclusion that the IOC needs to take the next step in its scenario-planning. " I still hope for the first of these options . I prize the event in itself. I am hopeful as well, but this can't ignore what is missing from the lead-up to these Games for so many athletes. So the question to be answered is this.. Is it better to hold an Olympics on schedule which will undoubtedly lack spectators and where the competition has clearly been compromised? Or deal with the headaches of a postponement in hopes of creating a more level playing field? Tough to decide which of those is better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arwebb Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 If this is true, a postponement is surely looking increasingly inevitable. World Athletics call on IOC to postpone Tokyo 2020 because of coronavirus crisis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikarus360 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 China should be stripped of 2022 if the cancellation/postponement happens. I refuse to believe there won't be consequences/punishment for these actions. And i'm getting extremely sick at how their propaganda tool is trying to slide the entire world to make them unironically believe the US caused the virus. Trusting in the PRC was the worst mistake the world ever did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, arwebb said: If this is true, a postponement is surely looking increasingly inevitable. World Athletics call on IOC to postpone Tokyo 2020 because of coronavirus crisis That's going to carry a lot of signifigance. The 2021 World Athletics Championships would likely be postponed as well if the Olympics were moved to next summer. 3 minutes ago, Ikarus360 said: China should be stripped of 2022 if the cancellation/postponement happens. I refuse to believe there won't be consequences/punishment for these actions. And i'm getting extremely sick at how their propaganda tool is trying to slide the entire world to make them unironically believe the US caused the virus. Trusting in the PRC was the worst mistake the world ever did. For all the calls for China to lose the Olympics, if you want to pin this on them, there would need to be proof that their government was complicit in all this. Easy to make that claim. Not so easy to try and make it stick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rio2016man Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 the Olympics being on TV right now would be the perfect thing to keep people entertained while quarantined 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 As much as this is probably the one time NBC could abandon time delay, broadcast it all live at a god-awful (for American viewers) time slot, and still get record ratings, it’s really not an option. Postponement is inevitable (and apparently Abe’s conceding as much now). My bet’s on 2021. In a world that’s basically shutting down and we’re all retreating into our shells, while trillions are being pumped into keeping some semblance of an economy on life support, tweaking an Olympics village occupancy plan should be trivial. Surprised the village is not already being drafted into emergency isolation accommodation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 57 minutes ago, rio2016man said: the Olympics being on TV right now would be the perfect thing to keep people entertained while quarantined Hard to have a sporting event when no sporting events can be held. Of course, that's what YouTube is for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faiyez Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Sir Rols said: Surprised the village is not already being drafted into emergency isolation accommodation. There is no "lockdown" or declared state of emergency in Tokyo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, Sir Rols said: As much as this is probably the one time NBC could abandon time delay, broadcast it all live at a god-awful (for American viewers) time slot, and still get record ratings, it’s really not an option. Postponement is inevitable (and apparently Abe’s conceding as much now). My bet’s on 2021. In a world that’s basically shutting down and we’re all retreating into our shells, while trillions are being pumped into keeping some semblance of an economy on life support, tweaking an Olympics village occupancy plan should be trivial. Surprised the village is not already being drafted into emergency isolation accommodation. That's the read I'm getting. It's being hinted that the IOC has already decided on postponement, they just don't have everything in place to make an official announcement. Along those lines.. Canadian athletes will not compete at Tokyo 2020 Olympics due to risks of COVID-19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Faiyez said: There is no "lockdown" or declared state of emergency in Tokyo. I’m truly glad to hear that. Hope their medical system continues to cope. Still, if they don’t, it’s possibly a good asset to have. I do wonder if this means all the Tokyo 2020 memorabilia i picked up in Tokyo last year is gonna shoot up in value on the collectables market. Another thought - the IOC seems pretty determined that cancellation isn’t an option being considered. That said, we know they always have pretty hefty insurance in case of cancellation. Would they also be insured for postponement, which would entail costs and losses of their own? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 Okay, the word here is the Australian Olympic Committee has now officially advised athletes to prepare for a Tokyo Olympics in the northern summer of 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, Sir Rols said: Okay, the word here is the Australian Olympic Committee has now officially advised athletes to prepare for a Tokyo Olympics in the northern summer of 2021. Just saw the tweets about it. Kinda gives away the IOC's plans if they're already starting to talking about 2021. I can't imagine they'd mention that without some knowledge of potential scenarios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 Yeah, I’d read a lot into it too, especially considering this would have gone past John Coates, who as well as being president of the AOC is vice-president of the IOC and chairman of the Tokyo coordination commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanMUC Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 So it’s game(s) over for this year. Canada already out and Australia not being subtle about things. The IOC can set itself a four week deadline to come up with an alternative, but it’s probably only four days until they say it’s not going to happen 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) So that kills Eugene 2021. Wonder what they do with the Villages for a year? Rent them out as Air B&Bs? Do they replay all TEAM sports qualifications? Do they restage the Lighting of the Flame (or just keep it lit in some temple there?) What if a NEW virus pops up in spring 2021?? Quaker, Edited March 23, 2020 by baron-pierreIV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigVic Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 July-August 2021 is a sure bet now for the Olympics then we have Beijing in 2022 6 months later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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