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yoshi

UK. EU. Yes? No? Referendum 23 June.

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Boris also got destroyed by Mary Beard in a debate...then again, Mary Beard is amazing.

As an American, I'm very happy with the new PM. I'm a huge Theresa May fan and I honestly think she will be one of the UK's finest PM's. As for BOJO being the Foreign Sec. I think she's trying to force the Brexiters to deliver on their promises...also...May has severely undercut the Foreign Offices power given the two new cabinet positions. Boris is literally just...there. It's going to May and Davis leading negotiations and the PM has outshined the Foreign Sec. internationally since like Thatcher (really, starting with Churchill).

I think Boris will be a non-factor that fucks himself over. But go Theresa, next time she's in the US, that's just going to be an amazing moment. Two most powerful women in the world...HRC and TM. Also, I lowkey think TM is going to be in there longer than Thatcher...maybe even Wampold.

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New Zealand's PM, John Key was visiting last week and had a couple of quite ones with David Cameron.

He also came away with some bad news on Brexit...UK has no strategy in place to manage it. They just didn't expect it to happen and stopped work on a potential event at the start of the year.

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I think it's pretty obvious from the total headless-chickenery that has engulfed Westminster for the last month that nobody, least of all people in power (the Bank excepted) had anything resembling a plan :lol:

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Given I had a bet on Leave (and voted against my own bet), perhaps I should have come up with a Brexit plan while I was at it. The only thing I would say is that economic armageddon doesn't seem to have happened yet.

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On 24/07/2016 at 9:48 PM, arwebb said:

Given I had a bet on Leave (and voted against my own bet), perhaps I should have come up with a Brexit plan while I was at it. The only thing I would say is that economic armageddon doesn't seem to have happened yet.

Early days arwebb and Article 50 has not even been triggered yet! To be honest, if all political parties were to feel that Brexit is going to damage the British economy irrevocably they should have the courage to tell the electorate that they cannot implement  it no matter what the outcome of the referendum (which isn't legally binding anyway).

That's the way I feel no matter how 'undemocratic' this might come across and I'm sure I'm far from alone. Some things are just too important to be left to the passing whims of popular opinion much of which, as is now all too clear, was misguidedly directed by mendacious and deceptive politicians. 

Edited by Mainad

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Hmmmm watching Theresa May give her conference speech it looked like half the people in the hall wanted to drag her outside and shoot her.

my feeling are she wont last as prime minister,

people will come to realize that we cant leave the EU!!!

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10 hours ago, The Tower Bridge Fox said:

Hmmmm watching Theresa May give her conference speech it looked like half the people in the hall wanted to drag her outside and shoot her.

my feeling are she wont last as prime minister,

people will come to realize that we cant leave the EU!!!

A lot hangs on the legal challenges to the claim that the Referendum result gives her executive authority to trigger Article 50. By EU referendum standards, it was woefuily inadequate, and the enabling Act does not specify what is to happen once the result is in, so everything's open to legal manoeuvering.

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To my good friends in England...

After totally fucking up your country, Nigel Farrage is in the US trying to destroy ours. Fortunately, we are going to be smarter than you and not elect the giant orange Cheeto he is drooling over. But he's a totally ass, and we'd like you to take him back. 

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5 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

To my good friends in England...

After totally fucking up your country, Nigel Farrage is in the US trying to destroy ours. Fortunately, we are going to be smarter than you and not elect the giant orange Cheeto he is drooling over. But he's a totally ass, and we'd like you to take him back. 

You're too late, Theresa May closed our borders last week. You're stuck with him. 

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Any thoughts on the prime minister's speech today? I thought it was broadly solid and sensible, though I'm sceptical as to how she will be able to deliver certain aspects of it.

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16 hours ago, arwebb said:

Any thoughts on the prime minister's speech today? I thought it was broadly solid and sensible, though I'm sceptical as to how she will be able to deliver certain aspects of it.

As Helmut von Moltke put it: "Kein Operationsplan reicht mit einiger Sicherheit über das erste Zusammentreffen mit der feindlichen Hauptmacht hinaus"

- simplified in English as " No battle plan survives the first contact with the enemy"

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I preferred Charlie Hebdo's cover the day after the vote

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On 10/10/2016 at 10:14 PM, krow said:

i take some solace in the fact that both our countries are fucked together.

It's my feelings that the stupid Brexit nonsense led directly to that sad farce which took place in Washington yesterday. Biggest facepalm and slowest handclap in the history of the universe for the electorates of both nations!!!:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Not feeling at all proud to be a Brit these days!!! :(:(:(

 

 

 

 

 

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It's becoming pretty clear that the EU is united in its determination to make the whole process of Brexit very painful. I respect them for it and no doubt it's deserved. But - I can't really see any kind of positive relationship being in place at the end of this divorce process. There's a real danger that attitudes will harden and the EU will be increasingly thought of as a threat. There doesn't seem to be anything positive or worthwhile to be gained for the UK. I hoped for more but even as a devout remainer I feel defeated even before negotiations begin. Perhaps it would be more painful but easier just to walk away rather than go through this humiliating charade?

I wonder if the UK will join NAFTA? Given the agreement is being renegotiated I wouldn't be supprised if there was some back channels to Washington about that. How would the US Canada and Mexico feel about 66 million Brits joining the club with our pleading little arms outstretched and our begging bowl - seems ridiculous is some respects but I suppose it would unite the English speaking countries of the North Atlantic in trade terms - minus Ireland of course. I suspect this is where we will end up. We'll bring Adele and some Range Rovers and we can buy your maple syrup, tacos and chervrolets. 

Edited by Ripley

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Considering that the US can pull out of NAFTA anytime our nincompoop of a president wants to, I wouldn't count on NAFTA being around long enough for the UK to join. (Not sure if the story made it overseas, but Trump was just about the pull out of NAFTA, but a 10-minute conversation with his son-in-law changed his mind.)

As for Brexit, it was sold as

- Continental Europe sucks

- Continental Europe needs the UK more than the UK needs Europe, therefore

- UK will get to keep the good parts of the EU without the bad parts. 

Now that people are waking up to the fact that the UK won't get to keep the good parts without the bad parts, they have determined that Continental Europe sucks. Sounds about right. 

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Surely there must be some notice period to end NAFTA - even the Uk and EU have 2 years before the axe falls. NAFTA seems to offer the Brexiteers everything they wanted from the EU but can't have. A free trade agreement with relatively minor political / sovereignty baggage compared to where the EU is headed. No currency union issues and mass immigration. Sounds like Brexit nirvana. 

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NAFTA Article 2205: Withdrawal

A Party may withdraw from this Agreement six months after it provides written notice of withdrawal to the other Parties. If a Party withdraws, the Agreement shall remain in force for the remaining Parties.

So, six month notice and the US is out. There is some quibble as to whether the constitution requires congressional approval to pull out of treaties... Bush jr pulled out of one and was unchallenged. Carter pulled out of one, was challenged... a lower court ruled he needed congressional approval, the supreme court threw out the lower court ruling and allowed it (without actually ruling that the president didn't need approval). 

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7 hours ago, Ripley said:

I wonder if the UK will join NAFTA?

The UK is a large enough economy that it can negotiate individual deals. And in fact the UK already has a draft trade agreement with Mexico.

It is worth noting that it might actually be easier for Britain to negotiate trade deals with other countries outside of the EU than it was when they were inside. The problems with Canada's deal with the EU were based on the self-interest of rival producers in the EU: IE Belgian dairy farmers worried about being outcompeted by Canadian dairy farmers. Since Britain has a much more specialized economy (taking in raw materials and providing services as its export) there should be fewer protectionist interests in a Canada-UK deal than there would be in a Canada-EU deal.

Additionally, as Ripley notes, there is a lot less baggage attending most international trade agreements than there is with anything to do with the EU.

I think the real losers in post-European Britain will be the human lives that are divided by borders rather than the economies: people whose universities, homes or families are on the other side of the English channel will suffer.

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The winners in post-European Britain will be all the sick kids and elderly helped out by the extra  £350m a week in funding NHS will get.

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