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2015 Canadian Federal Election


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Bit surprised this hasn't come up since people here tend to discuss the elections of the major contributors here.

Just some background. Our federal political scene is very similar to the United Kingdom. A Right, Centrist, Leftist and Separatist party represent the vast majority of voters. Unlike the UK though, it is the centrist that are routinely the natural party of government, not the Tories. The system is almost identical to how the UK elections function.

Also this past weekend marked record voting in advanced polls. Much more often then not higher voter turnout indicates results that are going to change government. I would love to see voter turnout in the high 60's.

The Liberal Party of Canada (to which I am a member) is currently polling highest, but things can change and has has been seen in many elections in recent times, polls can be wrong. But momentum and trendlines are clearly indicating a Liberal government. With the return to 24 Sussex of Justin Trudeau. Some extrapolations of polls indicate that there has been a coalescing around the Liberal Party. If that continues (the Liberals have taken the lead in 5 of 7 regions, while polling above almost all historical results in the other 2) a surprise majority government is in the cards.

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I will only vote for the person who offers poutine subsidies, promises a Joe Beef franchise in every town of 2,000 people or more, declares war on Minnesota/Alanis Morissette, repeals the unpopular 'Right Of Return' act of 2003 that allows Celine to come back from Vegas, allows Quebec to secede and bids for at least 3 Olympics in the next decade.

I assume being Australian gives me the right to a vote? Commonwealth buddies, eh?

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I will only vote for the person who offers poutine subsidies, promises a Joe Beef franchise in every town of 2,000 people or more, declares war on Minnesota/Alanis Morissette, repeals the unpopular 'Right Of Return' act of 2003 that allows Celine to come back from Vegas, allows Quebec to secede and bids for at least 3 Olympics in the next decade.

that seems a sensible platform. can get avril a comeback too? poor girl's life's in shambles. and we need the government to put more pressure on fefe's label to release new music.

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that seems a sensible platform. can get avril a comeback too? poor girl's life's in shambles. and we need the government to put more pressure on fefe's label to release new music.

Maybe we can get Avril and Fefe to make music together? Like when Michelle Branch formed a country duo with that irrelevant blonde chick?

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I may be completely wrong, but I've heard that Harper and the Conservative party have been growing more and more conservative, similar to the US Republican party, and that people aren't too happy with that.

Yes Harper is the furthest right of any recent (or probably any) Prime Minister. But he does things and supports policies (child care benefit, 18 months maternity leave) that would cause the Tea Party-ers to shriek with disgust. And it is not so much the party has moved to the right but that the right flank (what was the Reform Party) has subsumed traditional conservativitism to Canada. This, combined with the highly centralized power structure in Canadian Government, has resulted in a handful of very right-wing people taking over the direction of the party. It is in some ways the opposite of the populist-pandering that has seen the more moderate Republicans having to bow to the wishes of the extreme right.

Looking up polls this looks very interesting & close over the whole campaign. You have FPTP right? Could be a pretty fraught next week or 2, like we had in 2010. Brace yourselves :P

Polls are actually starting to creep into majority territory for the LPC. Only 2 or 3 more points. There could also be a vote surge to ensure stable government (like what happened in Britain recently).

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While John Tredeau would certainly be the hottest global leader in a long time...I'm gonna say Harper is in for another term. I'm predicting a voter surge like what happened in the UK back in May. I wouldn't mind a Liberal win though.

Watch the NDP win...I would LMAO. Have fun with this one Canada, lot more options then what we have in the US.

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It is Justin Trudeau.

The vote surge in the UK (like the one in Canada in 2011) was for the party that was leading the polls. Also there is something that is going to be massively different about this election compared to any election before it. There will be no results blackouts. So as the results get tallied in NFLD and the Maritimes things could get interesting.

For my fellow Canadians that plan to watch Election Night, important ridings to watching:

St. John's East - Mount Pearl. Seamus O'Regan is running as a Liberal and him defeating a popular NDPer could be the start of some interesting things

Central Nova Peter McKay's old riding

Halifax. Another popular NDPer in trouble

Saint John-Rothesay.

Those will be some pretty big indications of voting intentions

I just don't know though. This could be like the 2013 BC election or the 2012 Alberta election where the polls had it all wrong.

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Ofan. Liberal majority would require the Liberals winning every riding in the GTA with the sole exceptions of Thornhill and Toronto-Danforth. Plus sweeping through Southwestern Ontario and making a breakthrough in Hamilton, and putting pressure on the NDP in the North. Plus taking back the Quebec side of the Capital Region, sweeping Montreal and the Maritimes. Plus taking almost every suburban riding in Vancouver.

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Liberals looking good with only 24 hours to go: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polls-oct18-1.3276755

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories manage to get a win or enough seats for a minority government. Polls have been wrong before, this time in 2012 Republicans thought the White House was theirs and earlier this year Labour thought it had a chance until those exit polls came.


Still, it would be nice to see a Liberal Government with the upcoming Climate Talks in Paris.

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I just want to make a slight alteration to my statement. It is now (based on the last round of polls) possible for the Liberals to have a majority. But it would require a near perfect storm of vote splitting in Quebec or a red crush of the province. But given that Forum and Nanos have both given the Liberals a touch of the 40% majority territory anything can happen.

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I just want to make a slight alteration to my statement. It is now (based on the last round of polls) possible for the Liberals to have a majority. But it would require a near perfect storm of vote splitting in Quebec or a red crush of the province. But given that Forum and Nanos have both given the Liberals a touch of the 40% majority territory anything can happen.

Those were my thoughts exactly. With NDP support waning, especially in Quebec, the Liberals could take advantage of many ridings in la Belle Province that are currently orange, or were predicted to be orange for much of the campaign. Add in the usual wins in the GTA, a stellar performance in Southern Ontario and a sweep of the Maritimes, and you could be getting close to majority territory. I think that the Liberal ad campaign, especially in the last few days and weeks, has been much more effective, and that might stick in voters minds tomorrow (or I guess today). Not to mention that the current provincial government in Quebec is currently Liberal, which to me shows that the Bloc aren't really going to be all that successful in this election, despite the fact that NDP support is dropping, putting the Liberals in prime position in a very left-wing region.

Just to add on to what I said, as I now look at the polls, the Bloc is projected for a slight resurgence from 2011, surely attributed to the reemergence of Duceppe.

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It is a lot more complicated and unfortunate then late. The Liberals had (and probably still have) a traditional base of support that left them during the 90's and the Sponsorship scandal. In these regions (the Eastern Townships, Saguenay, Gaspe, the Outauoais) there can be substantial vote splitting. In Saguenay, the Townships and one riding in Quebec City (Louis Herbert) it s between the Liberals, NDP, BLOC and Conservatives. And some ridings will be won with 28 or 30% of the vote. The Liberals would need separatists and conservatives with a desire to oust Harper to hold their nose. Gaspe is between the NDP, Liberals and BLOC and the Outauoais will be decided by how many federalists coalesce their vote around the Liberals. 3 prominent NDP in the Outauoais are potentially in trouble (Nycole Turmel, Francois Boivin and Ruth Brasseau). Polls be Legar (the most prominent Francophone polling company) has a 3-way tie among Francophone voters. Desire for change and an appettite to be apart of government instead of in opposition would have to be very strong. If Couillard have come out in favour of the Liberals things would have been a lot different.

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Consider me one in the minority of Americans in general geniunely interested in the Canadian federal elections--and have been for years. Sadly, most Americans don't much think about it. We need to and learn about other nations and cultures around the world big and small. As a nation that I am a major fan of and would very much like to live in, I would be more of NDP/Green supporter if I were Canadian. With all of Tom Mulcair's credentials that he's earned over the years and likes to present himself publicly as one that's ready, he lacks some of Jack Layton's charisma no matter how hard he tries--and bumbles. If Layton was still alive, I would be thrilled to see him win the PMship and move into 24 Sussex. I personally expect the Liberals will eke out a majority of seats in the House of Commons. As already mentioned by Faster and Ofan, NDP's support in Quebec is already waning; one thing I don't like about the NDP right now is the shift to attract the middle. All these three mainstream parties try to attract like we've seen here Statesside and in the UK for years and years. This may very well be alienating voters in the most socially progressive province in all of Canada. I kinda hate to see the NDP losing many of those seats in Quebec that it earned four years ago because it would giove them a chance to further build upon them and influence greatly Quebec politics as a meaningful alternative to the long-running Bloc Quebecois-Liberal choices. This one--78 days--is the longest Canadian one on record since the 19th Century. We Americans can use more of that electorial campaign with more free political advertising and truer multiparty democracy at the national level

As far as Justin Trudeau is concerned, I wonder are Canadians are willing to accept him because, despite his good looks, the major knock on him is that he's "just not ready" for leadership with less intelligence than that his late dad legendary PM Pierre Elliot Trudeau had and his lightweight political rep. He hadn't done much voting in the House in the early part of his MP span, if I recall correctly. Thus hadn't thought through of the positions. His opponents already attack him for this. Do Canadians have the appetite for a political family dynasty that so many others, ours included, endured at times? I would rather wait for him until 4-5 more years. They're more like the Democrats here to me in a lot of ways, though Canada is more liberal than us generally. I much rather see a NDP majority of seats but much of Ontario is a tough sell for them. I kinda worry it could like ushering in Dalton McGuinty a bit.

Not sure what kind of role afterwards would Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois, a social democratic party with more separatist tendencies, have regarding Quebec after being beaten so soundly. Thought Duceppe resigned after 2011. After the NDP winning Quebec in 2011 with a majority of seats there under the strength of Layton, a new era I thought was ushered in and would put the idea of separatism into bed. What do they want this time on their political platforms in wooing Quebec voters, never how split things are among the four major parties with strong interest there: NDP, BLOC, Liberals, and Conservatives? Can only surmise it wants to maintain Quebec's "distinct society" wishes in the fact of an English majority society. I would like to see more of a orange, red, and green (and maybe a little blue for the BQ) majority coalition. Too bad that Elizabeth May can't help form a government by herself--she needs more fellow Green MPs in there with her in Ottawa to start with.

Time for Harper to go. But as we've seen earlier with the British election, things can go crazy and the Conservatives could win a majority again. Despise this Islamaphobia going on Harper and the fellow Conservatives. But in the past Irish Catholics, Japanese-Canadians, and Sikhs have previously been targets. The important thing for the fear-mongers is that the group be readily identifiable and not have much power, so the politicians can credibly promise to be able to protect their supporters against this manufactured threat in an "us-versus-them" move. Fear doesn't produce great decisions, we all should know this as humans. If you're power-hungry that works. Especially on something that relatively simple than complex problems like the niqab issue.

The following is explicitly geared towards us Americans, many of whom again don't think much about Canada as we should, with help from John Oliver on HBO. Many of us aren't aware about the FPTP/Westminster parliamentary system it has like many Commonwealth nations have (Australia's and NZ's not much better). Never mind the fact there's an HBO Canada. I do care about Canada and its direction it is going as a society. Fearmongering Harper is like that jerk douchbag boyfriend our neighbor is dating (and there's plenty of Muslims in Tory country he hails from). Not to mention his horrible band (his drummer was facing paedophilia charges recently). I'll speak more about other issues on my next post

PS: Go Blue Jays! You better win the next three games all up in Toronto starting tonight. Preferably the next 4 and go to the World Series. I'm far more of a Jays fan than a Cardinals one. Time to bring the World Series back to Canada!

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Liberals are dominating electorally in the Maritimes (or Atlantic Canada) right now winning 10 ridings and leading in all districts counted so far. Quebec will be interesting when it's their turn. Might be the start of a Liberal landslide. It's Stop Harper time so far.

One thing I gotta tell you: that Section 331 in the Canada Elections Act John Oliver talked about. He can rest easy. This law is no different from ours prohibiting foreign money donations in our US elections (hard to track there because it's hidden in those PACs) because what he says is an opinion and not a tangible inducement:

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/19/john-oliver-flouts-canadian-election-law-to-blast-harper.html


Rather have Mulcair and May since the NDP and the Greens and their platform is more aligned with me politically. But Trudeau is tolerable. Hope he's mature soon into his PMship.

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The 4 key ridings in the region that a lot of pollsters had as important have all gone to the Liberals and ridings that were thought not competitive like Acadie, Chezzetcook etc have gone Liberal.

Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia have gone 100% Liberal

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Canada officially now has the hottest national leader in the entire world.

#congratssexgodJustinTrudeau

image.jpeg

Sex god **chuckles** Surely a lot of ladies everywhere would ogle him not limited to just Canada. There's also Rahul Gandhi from the India Congress Party to choose too. He himself comes from a political family dynasty.

NDP and Greens could've been better with the amount of seats nationwide in the House of Commons they wound up having and/or maintaining yesterday. But this election was far more about "Stopping Harper and the Conservatives" under the first past the post electorial system than anything else. If it weren't for that, Tom Mulcair could've had his victory speech in Montreal's Outremont neighbo(u)rhood instead.

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