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Potential 2026 and 2028 bids

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Who could realistically be bidding for 2026 and 2028, now that 2022 is about to be decided and 2024 is getting more and more into focus?

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^^Well, Paris are considered the Favourites for 2024. So 2028 would be a battle between South Africa and USA.. USA would put in either LA or San Francisco while South Africa try with Durban. If the USA decide to go for 2026, then I'd expect a Bid from either Anchorage, Reno or Salt Lake City. If USA host 2026 then it opens the door for South Africa to 2028. Other Bidders I see for 2026 include Stockholm & Quebec City. I'm not too sure about other Candidates for 2028 since Asia would've hosted 3 Times (If Beijing Host 2022), Europe would have just hosted (Paris 2024), South America have Rio next year & USA would have hosted 2026, I only see Australia or South Africa as contenders for 2028, if the USA do not go for 2026.

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I would love to see New York host 2028 but it all depends on who is in office. I don't really think the USOC wants the winter games right now but if they do go for 2026 which ever city they submit will most likely be the favorite. To me, each race depends on where the US is. If they go for 2026 then South Africa will most likely be the favorites for 2028. On the other hand, US goes for 2028 then Stockholm could be the favorite.

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^^Well, Paris are considered the Favourites for 2024. So 2028 would be a battle between South Africa and USA.. USA would put in either LA or San Francisco while South Africa try with Durban. If the USA decide to go for 2026, then I'd expect a Bid from either Anchorage, Reno or Salt Lake City. If USA host 2026 then it opens the door for South Africa to 2028. Other Bidders I see for 2026 include Stockholm & Quebec City. I'm not too sure about other Candidates for 2028 since Asia would've hosted 3 Times (If Beijing Host 2022), Europe would have just hosted (Paris 2024), South America have Rio next year & USA would have hosted 2026, I only see Australia or South Africa as contenders for 2028, if the USA do not go for 2026.

Kinda like how 2022 was supposed to be all about all those European cities? How'd that turn out.

It's certainly possible that's how 2028 will shape up. Far from a given though. Not the most impossible thing, even if Paris wins 2024, for another European city to host 2024, especially if either South Africa doesn't bid and/or the US doesn't have a bid that's up to snuff.

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2026 won't be in Asia unless we have another 2022 scenario. So based on what happened this time any Western European bid that gets to the ine will take it. Even over a US/Canada bid. The IOC needs the Games to come back to France/Scandinavia/Germany.

2028 - forget Brisbane. The lack of a stadium will kill the bid. QE2/ANZ Stadium/QSAC whatever they call it now is in a completely built up area with abysmal transport options. The Boondall option is gone as that has been completely sold for housing now. The Gabba and Suncorp cannot be retrofit with a track. Building a stadium out Ipswich or down in Chandler is not an option. Melbourne won't get the nod to bid until Brisbane tries again for some stupid reason - though a Melbourne bid (even if held in winter) is a formidable option. The majority of venues are there.

If the Durban Commonweath Games are a success they could nab 2032 - however they would need a flawless preparation to nab the Olympics prior to their Commonwealth Games dry run.

Thus 2028 is for Europe or North America- whoever loses 2024 - regardless of who gets 2026. The only real possible spoiler would be a strong Shanghai bid.

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The only real possible spoiler would be a strong Shanghai bid.

Unless of course Beijing gets 2022. And even if not, I think there's no appetite for (East) Asia in the IOC for some time to come, if they have other options.

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Yea they're going to be burnt out from Asia regardless whether Beijing gets 2022. So North America it is for 2028. Toronto VS whatever US city is chosen to put the bid. More than likely it'll be LA, but it could be San Francisco. I don't envision it being NYC. I'd like Houston to throw in their name as a candidate city for the US bid just to see what comes up. It's a better option than Dallas for a Texas city bid.

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2028 race is dependant of one element; if South Africa enters in the race

If South Africa enters in the race, it would be like 2016 again. The biggest obstacle of South Africa will be passing the shortlist process, after that, finally all the continents have SOG. If not, this is North America's to lose - Most likely Toronto vs. US candidate.

Interesting, without a South African bid and even 12 years after Rio, I could see Buenos Aires as the "dark horse/surprise-alternative" of the race, if it wasn't for the 2018 Youth Olympics. Otherwise, a full North American triumph.

2026 is probably Europe. If the Spaniards are still hungry for Olympics, maybe they could try with Zaragoza-Jaca :D

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If South Africa is going to put in a bid they'll have to enter the 2028 race just to lose so they become the heavy favorites for 2032. Durban, probably SA's best shot, hasn't proven itself in hosting a large sporting event all on its own. Yes they hosted some games for the World Cup but the cup was spread around the entire country. Also, with Toronto's venues for the Pan American Games, the venues for the 2022 Commonwealth Games may not be at the capacity or have the features to meet Olympic standards. The Moses Mabhida Stadium, which was just built a few years ago, isn't even at Olympic capacity. It would require major renovations to meet the capacity, or Durban would have to build a new 80k-capacity athletics stadium from scratch.

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I thought it seated 70000 in the World Cup? How did they cut it down, & could they bring it back to that?

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Well, from Africa they can make some exceptions like they did with Brazil. It's all dependant of the will and the planification of the bid.

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If South Africa is going to put in a bid they'll have to enter the 2028 race just to lose so they become the heavy favorites for 2032. Durban, probably SA's best shot, hasn't proven itself in hosting a large sporting event all on its own. Yes they hosted some games for the World Cup but the cup was spread around the entire country. Also, with Toronto's venues for the Pan American Games, the venues for the 2022 Commonwealth Games may not be at the capacity or have the features to meet Olympic standards. The Moses Mabhida Stadium, which was just built a few years ago, isn't even at Olympic capacity. It would require major renovations to meet the capacity, or Durban would have to build a new 80k-capacity athletics stadium from scratch.

The Moses Mabhida stadium was specifically designed with Olympics in mind. It can be easily expanded to 85,000 with temporary seating added to the third level. Any requirements beyond that would require construction, but plans already exist for the changes required to make it a 100,000 seater venue. However 85,000 is more than sufficient.

The pool will be Olympic ready based on the construction they will do for 2022. The indoor venues dotted around the city will probably need a few additions for an Olympics and we are missing an indoor velodrome which the city has excluded from a 2022 bid but would need to include for an Olympics. Almost all venues exist for the Commies, only a few will be needed extra for an Olympics, Durban is well served with sporting facilities.

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IMO the 2026 Olympics are going to be the telling point as to whether or not Agenda 2020 actually works or not. As much of a nightmare the 2022 race was for the IOC, there's a possibility, albeit a longshot, of an even worse scenario - Almaty is the only bidder for 2026. Sounds far-fetched, but not as much as one might think. Consider the following.

Both Pyeongchang and Beijing are likely to be very expensive with limited legacy. They probably won't have Sochi-like price tags, but the costs will be high. Pyeongchang risks having an Olympics with two major white elephants in the Alpensia Ski Jump and the bobsleigh track. They're tearing down the speed skating oval post-Games.

2026. Unless the USOC changes course I don't see a WOG bid from the U.S. regardless of what happens with the 2024 race. I also don't see one from Canada either as indications seem to point to a Toronto bid. So that leaves either Europe (what the IOC would probably prefer) or Asia. You can eliminate Korea and China obviously. Japan? After the price tag of Tokyo, I don't see them giving Sapporo a chance so soon. That leaves the IOC with Europe. What if, after 2018 and 2022, we see no bids because the support isn't there because of the high costs? Almaty is the only bidder. I'm basing that on the assumption that Almaty bids again.

Would the IOC award the Olympics to Almaty or would they extend the deadline and perhaps be forced to make some painful concessions.

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I don't see the IOC extending the deadline in that case. They would almost have awarded them 2022. Why would they reject them for 2026? Of course, Almaty would not get 2026 in a race with - let's say - Oslo, Stockholm and St. Moritz for sure. Yet I think the IOC is sure about Almaty's capability to host a succesful games - given everything works well at the 2017 Universiade.

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I don't see the IOC extending the deadline in that case. They would almost have awarded them 2022. Why would they reject them for 2026? Of course, Almaty would not get 2026 in a race with - let's say - Oslo, Stockholm and St. Moritz for sure. Yet I think the IOC is sure about Almaty's capability to host a succesful games - given everything works well at the 2017 Universiade.

Yes but let's remember Almaty would've been cut early in the 2022 race. They were only there on the final vote by default. I don't see the close vote as a ringing endorsement of an ability to host an Olympics. At least in 1984 race, Los Angeles was seen as a sure-fire candidate. If the IOC had no other choice than Almaty for 2026, I would have to believe the IOC would be feverishly working back channels to get another city in the race.

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Both Pyeongchang and Beijing are likely to be very expensive with limited legacy.

This does not seem entirely fair. A big issue with Sochi is that Russia already has all of the facilities they built. IE a bobsledding track near Moscow, lots of ski jumps, lots of ice rinks, etc. The problem for them was that Moscow et al are not near large mountains for the alpine skiing. Similarly Canada already had duplicates of all the stuff they built for Vancouver.

China and South Korea are both large cold-weather countries with big economies, but they don't have (or did not have) very good winter sport training facilities. The stuff they build will almost certainly be used by their Olympic winter sports programs. And while the Olympics routinely fail the host financially, they never fail to spark interest and enthusiasm in the host country. Winter games in South Korea and China should absolutely convince their people to ski and ice skate.

The problem for the Beijing summer games venues is that China built a ton of high level venues without having the facilities for grassroots level sports. With the exception of the sliding track, that isn't as big of a problem for the winter games.

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How much use is a sliding track in Korea and or China likely to get post-Games? Not much. And the Alpensia Resort was on the verge of bankruptcy until, if I'm not mistaken, the government bailed it out. China and Korea are both cold-weather countries but how much enthusiasm for winter sports can really be expected? I seem to remember Korea hosting the Biathlon World Championships and it's not likely biathlon is suddenly the next big thing. Between the two countries, I'd give an edge to winter sports development to China if simply for the fact they are the world's most populous country and they have government sponsored sports academies for almost everything the way the old USSR and East Germany did.

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How much use is a sliding track in Korea and or China likely to get post-Games? Not much.

You can say that about any country, though. A new sliding track in Sweden or Poland would not be used much by the general public either. But the Chinese will almost certainly create state-run bobsledding and luge programs to make use of their track.

The winter Olympics in Japan helped develop winter sports there, and I don't see any reason to think it won't have the same effect in South Korea and China.

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Well it's obvious there's no push in Korea to develop speed skating outside of short track. The oval is being built for the Olympics then demolished afterwards. And the Koreans don't exactly have a great track record when it comes to constructing venues that turn into white elephants or are grossly underused. Just look at the World Cup and the recent Asian Games.

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Almaty got 40 votes. The IOC kinda likes them. Don't write them off

I think after the 2026 race (the IOC most likely will go anywhere besides Asia for those winter games) Almaty should definitely bid for another one. So long as they continue to bid on hosting other events to improve their hosting experience the IOC will certainly take them into consideration. I think 2030, with 2034 being more ideal, is their best shot. If they end up building a permanent sliding venue before they bid on a games, then that's an expense they won't have to add to their budget for future bids.

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Almaty got 40 votes. The IOC kinda likes them. Don't write them off

I think after the 2026 race (the IOC most likely will go anywhere besides Asia for those winter games) Almaty should definitely bid for another one. So long as they continue to bid on hosting other events to improve their hosting experience the IOC will certainly take them into consideration. I think 2030, with 2034 being more ideal, is their best shot. If they end up building a permanent sliding venue before they bid on a games, then that's an expense they won't have to add to their budget for future bids.

The IOC kinda liked them when the only other option was Beijing. Let's see how much the IOC likes them when there is anything resembling legitimate competition.

I agree they should look into a future bid, but as you noted, the last 3 Olympics that have been awarded to a European city that geographically is closer to Central Asia than it is to Western Europe, and then 2 East Asian cities. So it might be more than 1 cycle where Almaty isn't where the IOC is looking to go. If they find themselves in the right race, they absolutely have a fighting chance. But I think that could be tough if any or all of the big name European countries jump back into the fray, not to mention 1 or both of the North American countries.

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