I know that hardly anyone here cares - but who will win?

[runningrings]

Well, yes - but I don't think that the difference of cultures within a continent plays any significant role for the decision-making within the IOC. What might count more, though (as I stated before), is that Beijing is in East Asia just like the 2018 and 2020 host cities, and that might play into Almaty's hands which is at least in a different part of Asia.

As we all know, geopolitics is a huge part of the Olympic selection process. I think the fact that Almaty is Central Asia, and not East Asia like 2018 and 2022 may give it some underestimated leveridge.

If we're going to the same continent, at least make it a different part. (Can you imagine a Chinese handover in South Korea? At least Kazn will offer something much more different)

[FYI]

Don't forget that the main reason the European bids were pulled were because the public didn't wants them. The majority of the Almaty and Beijing public have shown that, through the IOC polls which I don't have the numbers, have a desire to host the games. That's why you can't compare Almaty to these european cities because right from the start none of them had a chance, honestly.

Right, bcuz polls from countries with authoritarian dictatorships have so much credibility. But that's beside the point. You're arguing in hindsight.

This point is moot anyway, because even with the low citizenry numbers in Oslo, the IOC was more than willing to give them the 2022 Winter Olympics, & were so ticked off when the Norwegian's pulled out by lashing out at them in an official statement.

So you can't describe that "as not a chance". The IOC pretty much wanted Oslo with low public support over Beijing's & Almaty's "high support".

Also, China is in Asia too, and a good part of China is just as rural as the parts of Kazakhstan you're referring to. With that logic neither should host the games.

Thanks for the geography lesson, but not really. Here's one for you, however. Beijing which is the city actually bidding for 2022, though, is no where near the western rural parts of China next to Kazahkstan.

Read again. That was exactly what I wrote before: "Of all the cities that were on the 2016 shortlist, Rio got the worst rating". And here again, it's not very relevant to me whether there were cities that were ranked even lower originally or not. What actually counts is the shortlist of cities that go into the host city election. And of those in the 2016 race, Rio got the worst ratings.

Regardless, you're trying to make a black-&-white analogy that simply because Rio had the lowest rankings on the short-list & still won, then so could Almaty. Though, I don't see the similarities whatsoever.

Again, one city is in a country of 200+ million people with a growing economy, with picturesque vistas & world reknonwed beaches, etc, etc, on a continent that never hosted before. While Almaty doesn't have any relative components to speak of no matter how hard they tried. There's no comparisons to speak of really.

What I want to say is: The IOC members have to decide under quite a few circumstances which are wholly different from all previous host city elections. This election might be decided on wholly different factors than all previous elections. And therefore, the original preliminary ranking done for the shortlist might turn out "just a piece of paper" even more so now than ever before.

This I agree with. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the IOC is going to totally ignore it. If these two bids (as tragic as they both are) were on more of an equal footing, then I'd totally concur. But they're not Which is why I still give Beijing the total edge on this one.

[Roger87]

I don't think the 2022 WOG bid is comparable to any race we have seen before - it is quite bizarre! ( only 2 bids, 2 one party states/ dictatorships, same continent, third time in a row for a continent, pretty average technical specs etc...)

I don't think the 2022 WOG bid is comparable to any race we have seen before - it is quite bizarre! ( only 2 bids, 2 one party states/ dictatorships, same continent, third time in a row for a continent, pretty average technical specs etc...)

As I said previously, the "Atlantas" of the WOG.

[woohooitsme83]

Apples are awesome (and I'm sure plenty of IOC voters will agree ), so it's Almaty all the way for me. Besides, any amount of "green" and sustainability promises and planning are bound to be a weak counterweight against the ridiculous distance between venues. (Especially after the *wonderous* legacy Beijing 2008 was left with.) Like, whats the point of cleaning up Beijing when a solid amount of the action is an hour away?Pretty sure ya' dont need the Olympics as an excuse to clean your air. Though, I am interested to see Zhangjiakou tranformed into an unnecessary Sochi 2.0 Kazakhstan should have some positive exposure this time.

[Nacre]

On 7/18/2015 at 1:06 PM, Nacre said:

Not just "similar problems." In fact it has even worse human rights than China.

I would pick China if I were voting for the simple reason that the IOC will have to give a winter games to China at some point, whereas they can hope that they won't have to go to Central Asia until it has democratized more. If they pick Almaty for 2022 they will end up having to choose China again soon, whereas if they choose Beijing now they can keep the Chinese placated for a decade or two.

Necro'ing this just to point out what a terrible choice the IOC had in this race with the shooting of dozens of protesters in Kazakhstan last week.

Kazakhstan says 164 killed in last week's protests (msn.com)