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I know that hardly anyone here cares - but who will win?


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And related for the lack of knowledge of cities like Salt Lake City and Torino. It's not true.

Salt Lake City is the heart of the Mormon Church, one of the most expansive Churchs around the world especially in regions like Africa and Latin America. And that's not counting near of the city is celebrating one of the most important film festivals of indie cinema - Sundance

Torino/Turin is known as one of the top italian centers especially in key industries like automobile industry. It was also one of key political centers of Europe before XVIII century (And the first capital of Italy). Last, for greater fans of football is the home of "La Signora" - Juventus, recently runner-up of the UEFA Championship and crane of some of the most important players of soccer like Platini, Buffon and Pirlo.

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Right, because remind what a winter wonderland Sochi 2014 was. Even on some of the days of competition, temps sometimes hovered near a balmy 60*F. At least in Beijing it'll actually be cold.

The temps don't mean a damn thing if the area where sports such as alpine skiing and snowboarding will take place doesn't conveniently produce snow. Both Sochi and Vancouver definitely have warmer climates than what is needed for a WOGs, but as long as there is a ski resort within a reasonable distance from those cities, then the weather at the location of the indoor events and the O/C ceremonies doesn't matter. Yanqing and Zhanjiakou are not within a reasonable distance from Beijing and they produce little to no snow.

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I think this race has a lot of parallels to the 1988 race between Nagoya vs. Seoul.

Coates and Tomkins will vote Beijing, as will Cinquanta. Heiberg will likely vote Almaty, as will Zhukov and the 3 other Russians. Fasel and Kaspar will both likely vote Almaty. Samaranch will be in Beijing's court. So based on where I think the major figures will line up, I am thinking strongly that it will be a close race. Kazakhstan is limited by not having their own IOC member, but have strong ties to the large Ukrainian and Russian contingent. The Chinese have strong representation but only Cinquanta is really vocally in their corner. The Australians will vote Beijing but I doubt they will lobby.

I think you could see a potential 50-48ish vote. If Beijing wins it is because they get almost universal support from Africa and Latin America. If Almaty wins it will be another testament to Russian power within the IOC.

I also think that there is another significant unknown to this race. There is absolutely no implications for 2024. There is no possibility for horsetrading. And I doubt there are a lot of debts to call in from 2020.

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So there's still quite a lot of interest in this race left ;) At least I didn't expect so many answers in such a short time.

Well, I'm not motivated enough to stay up late for the announcement (when's it happening anyway)' but I will check in to see the result with interest when I wake up.
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Presentations start at 9pm EST/2am GMT and go ok for about 4 hours. Voting starts at 4:15am EST/9am GMT. The announcement is at 5:30am EST/10:30am GMT and goes on for about half an hour. So basically if you live in the Americas you can watch both presentations and go to bed for 2020 Youth and voting, then come back for announcement. Europeans can either get up super early for presentations or just pass and wake up reasonably for the announcement.

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Beijing, if they wanna play it safe, but get ready for another lavish, self-glorification show from the PRC government as well for huge expenses of money (specially since they must build that train to connect Beijing to the distant town where the snow sports will be played). And the sad thing is that Almaty, despite being a more exotic choice, would probably do the same and worse because they would have to build most of the venues from scratch. If they wanted to make the olympics to stop scaring people because of its prices, i'm afraid that's what exactly going to happen in 2022 whoever wins. Which is why i really don't care who wins. We're doomed anyway.

Oslo would had won this easily buuuuut Bach and the IOC gang had to act like spoiled little brats and make ridiculous demands to the norwegians in case they won, which led them to give the IOC the middle finger they deserved.


PS: And no, the Tibet thing won't matter. It didn't mattered back in 2008, it won't matter again here. We should know already the IOC doesn't care about human rights record. They made that clear in 2001.

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I think this race has a lot of parallels to the 1988 race between Nagoya vs. Seoul.

Coates and Tomkins will vote Beijing, as will Cinquanta. Heiberg will likely vote Almaty, as will Zhukov and the 3 other Russians. Fasel and Kaspar will both likely vote Almaty. Samaranch will be in Beijing's court. So based on where I think the major figures will line up, I am thinking strongly that it will be a close race. Kazakhstan is limited by not having their own IOC member, but have strong ties to the large Ukrainian and Russian contingent. The Chinese have strong representation but only Cinquanta is really vocally in their corner. The Australians will vote Beijing but I doubt they will lobby.

I think you could see a potential 50-48ish vote. If Beijing wins it is because they get almost universal support from Africa and Latin America. If Almaty wins it will be another testament to Russian power within the IOC.

I also think that there is another significant unknown to this race. There is absolutely no implications for 2024. There is no possibility for horsetrading. And I doubt there are a lot of debts to call in from 2020.

Good analysis. And yeah, this race will end with small difference between the winner and the loser imo.

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I have two questions about what some of you guys mentioned in this discussion:

1) stryker and FYI, you said that Almaty was "the lowest ranking applicant in the 2022 prelimanary evaluation, before all the Europeans dropped out". What are you referring to? I have never heard so far of an official preliminary evaluation done by the IOC, apart from the evaluation of the (at that time) only three remaining applicant cities Almaty, Beijing and Oslo when the IOC had to make its shortlist last year. And yes, in that ranking, Almaty ranked last. But it was not an evaluation of all original 2022 bid cities.

2) Ikarus360, you said that Almaty "would have to build most of the venues from scratch". How do you come to that conclusion, when Almaty actually has most of the proposed venues already in place? And I wouldn't necessarily call the renovation or expansion of existing venues "building them from scratch". In fact, Almaty would have to build only three venues from scratch: The sliding centre, the figure skating arena and the alpine skiing venue. Beijing, on the other hand, would have to build six venues from scratch: the speed skating venue, the alpine skiing venue, the sliding centre, the biathlon venue, the cross-country skiing venue and the ski-jumping venue.

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1) stryker and FYI, you said that Almaty was "the lowest ranking applicant in the 2022 prelimanary evaluation, before all the Europeans dropped out". What are you referring to? I have never heard so far of an official preliminary evaluation done by the IOC, apart from the evaluation of the (at that time) only three remaining applicant cities Almaty, Beijing and Oslo when the IOC had to make its shortlist last year. And yes, in that ranking, Almaty ranked last. But it was not an evaluation of all original 2022 bid cities.

Isn't that enough? But I was speaking hypothetically. Aside from Lviv (which was a pipe dream of Ukraine's TBW), can you honestly say that Almaty would've ranked higher than Munich, Stockholm, St. Moritz or even Krakow?

Even if Krakow had passed their referendum last year & was only the only European city left at this point, the Poles would've been running away with this vote in less than two weeks time.

Yanqing and Zhanjiakou are not within a reasonable distance from Beijing and they produce little to no snow.

Again, Oslo to Lillehammer (where the Norwegians were proposing Alpine), is virtually the same distance between Beijing & Zhangziakou. Yet the Oslo was seen as the overall favorite before they dropped out. Vancouver to Whister was two hours. But no one had any issues with that. On the contrary, Vancouver 2010 is regarded as one of the best Winter Olympics.

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Isn't that enough? But I was speaking hypothetically. Aside from Lviv (which was a pipe dream of Ukraine's TBW), can you honestly say that Almaty would've ranked higher than Munich, Stockholm, St. Moritz or even Krakow?

Even if Krakow had passed their referendum last year & was only the only European city left at this point, the Poles would've been running away with this vote in less than two weeks time.

That wasn't the question I asked, I referred only to the actual shortlist, and not a virtual one. And even if all those cities had been in the 2022 race at that time, I wouldn't have vouched for higher rankings for all the cancelled bids you mentioned. But again, that is hypothetical. Munich's and St. Moritz' bids never even fully materialised, so it's hard to judge.

Furthermore: Of all the cities that were on the 2016 shortlist, Rio got the worst rating - nevertheless, it got the Games. And judging by the way the preparations go so far, Rio will probably deliver decent Games at the least, if not very good ones. So, in the end, the Evaluation Report could be only a piece of paper - not only for the host city election, but also for the Games themselves.

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If Almaty hosts the 2022 Winter Olympics they should have Borat at the opening ceremony

Something tells me that this won't happen :D But anyway, it's off topic, so please don't let this discussion derail into one about the opening ceremony before the Games are even awarded to one city or the other.

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That wasn't the question I asked, I referred only to the actual shortlist, and not a virtual one. And even if all those cities had been in the 2022 race at that time, I wouldn't have vouched for higher rankings for all the cancelled bids you mentioned. But again, that is hypothetical. Munich's and St. Moritz' bids never even fully materialised, so it's hard to judge.

If you want to get extremely technical & split hairs, go right ahead. But we at least saw what Munich 2018 was capable of delivering, & surely that would've been applied to any 2022 attempt & perhaps even better. Munich 2022 would've been what Paris is very likely going to be for 2024.

Furthermore: Of all the cities that were on the 2016 shortlist, Rio got the worst rating - nevertheless, it got the Games. And judging by the way the preparations go so far, Rio will probably deliver decent Games at the least, if not very good ones. So, in the end, the Evaluation Report could be only a piece of paper - not only for the host city election, but also for the Games themselves.

No, that's not true whatsoever. The city that got the lowest technical evaluation in the 2016 preliminary rating was Prague (or Baku), NOT Rio. Rio was only last AFTER the 2016 shortlist was announced.

Which kinda brings us back to the first paragraph. To compare Rio to Almaty is quite disingenuous, to say the least. Brazil is a booming newer economy, which is home to 200 million people on a continent that never hosted the Games before. That's why Rio mainly got the 2016 Games. It was a compelling narrative.

Kazahkstan, OTHO, is in a remote part of Asia (which as a continent, has already hosted the Games several times already) with only 17 million inhabitants. Not to mentioned ruled by the same person since 1991.

Had all those European bids actually materialized, I seriously doubt that Almaty woiuld've been short-listed. There wouldn't have been any need for the IOC to entertain it like there is now. But anyway, these are all things that have been discussed in some of the older threads on this topic. Perhaps you should review them. This isn't necessarily new conversation.

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If you want to get extremely technical & split hairs, go right ahead. But we at least saw what Munich 2018 was capable of delivering, & surely that would've been applied to any 2022 attempt & perhaps even better. Munich 2022 would've been what Paris is very likely going to be for 2024.

No, that's not true whatsoever. The city that got the lowest technical evaluation in the 2016 preliminary rating was Prague (or Baku), NOT Rio. Rio was only last AFTER the 2016 shortlist was announced.

Which kinda brings us back to the first paragraph. To compare Rio to Almaty is quite disingenuous, to say the least. Brazil is a booming newer economy, which is home to 200 million people on a continent that never hosted the Games before. That's why Rio mainly got the 2016 Games. It was a compelling narrative.

Kazahkstan, OTHO, is in a remote part of Asia (which as a continent, has already hosted the Games several times already) with only 17 million inhabitants. Not to mentioned ruled by the same person since 1991.

Had all those European bids actually materialized, I seriously doubt that Almaty woiuld've been short-listed. There wouldn't have been any need for the IOC to entertain it like there is now. But anyway, these are all things that have been discussed in some of the older threads on this topic. Perhaps you should review them. This isn't necessarily new conversation.

Don't forget that the main reason the European bids were pulled were because the public didn't wants them. The majority of the Almaty and Beijing public have shown that, through the IOC polls which I don't have the numbers, have a desire to host the games. That's why you can't compare Almaty to these european cities because right from the start none of them had a chance, honestly. The second the idea for a bid in any of the European countries was risen, the public outcry erupted.

Also, China is in Asia too, and a good part of China is just as rural as the parts of Kazakhstan you're referring to. With that logic neither should host the games.

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No, that's not true whatsoever. The city that got the lowest technical evaluation in the 2016 preliminary rating was Prague (or Baku), NOT Rio. Rio was only last AFTER the 2016 shortlist was announced.

Read again. That was exactly what I wrote before: "Of all the cities that were on the 2016 shortlist, Rio got the worst rating". And here again, it's not very relevant to me whether there were cities that were ranked even lower originally or not. What actually counts is the shortlist of cities that go into the host city election. And of those in the 2016 race, Rio got the worst ratings.

Which kinda brings us back to the first paragraph. To compare Rio to Almaty is quite disingenuous, to say the least. Brazil is a booming newer economy, which is home to 200 million people on a continent that never hosted the Games before. That's why Rio mainly got the 2016 Games. It was a compelling narrative.

Kazahkstan, OTHO, is in a remote part of Asia (which as a continent, has already hosted the Games several times already) with only 17 million inhabitants. Not to mentioned ruled by the same person since 1991.

Had all those European bids actually materialized, I seriously doubt that Almaty woiuld've been short-listed. There wouldn't have been any need for the IOC to entertain it like there is now. But anyway, these are all things that have been discussed in some of the older threads on this topic. Perhaps you should review them. This isn't necessarily new conversation.

First of all, what I actually wanted to point out is that you shouldn't perceive the evaluation report as a bible or a law for the IOC members. So I didn't want to draw a direct comparison between Rio and Almaty.

That comparison and the whole discussion are fruitless anyway since the whole 2016 and 2022 races are uncomparable to each other. Now is a special situation which the IOC actually has never had to deal with before: Only two cities are left in the race after the original favourites (Munich and then Oslo) have withdrawn. It also has to decide between two cities on the same continent, additionally on a continent which will host already the two previous Olympic Games. What I want to say is: The IOC members have to decide under quite a few circumstances which are wholly different from all previous host city elections. This election might be decided on wholly different factors than all previous elections. And therefore, the original preliminary ranking done for the shortlist might turn out "just a piece of paper" even more so now than ever before.

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Speaking about them being on the same continent, Central Asia and East Asia are very separate cultures. Even if they are on the same continent, their cultural differences make them like separate lands.

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Speaking about them being on the same continent, Central Asia and East Asia are very separate cultures. Even if they are on the same continent, their cultural differences make them like separate lands.

Well, yes - but I don't think that the difference of cultures within a continent plays any significant role for the decision-making within the IOC. What might count more, though (as I stated before), is that Beijing is in East Asia just like the 2018 and 2020 host cities, and that might play into Almaty's hands which is at least in a different part of Asia.

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