I know that hardly anyone here cares - but who will win?

[Olympian2004]

Now that we are only two weeks away from the least exciting Olympic host city election since "We're glad that we still have LA in the running" in 1977, the tension in this forum is palpable.

But somehow I'm still curious which city you expect to win - even more so because even Rob Livingstone seems to have abadoned this race (--> still no BidIndex this time around). If anyone is still around, opinions are highly appreciated.

[StefanMUC]

I expect Beijing to win, being the safer option. But I'm not totally writing Almaty off.

It is very disappointing to think of this as the day that the name "Munich" could/should have been pulled out of the envelope...

[Faster]

Munich, Oslo, Stockholm, Calgary, Denver, Salzburg, Zurich. Oh if only the any of their Olympic Committees and/or governments hadn't been so blinded by the graftastic price tag of Sochi.

[JO2024]

I'm pretty sure Beijing will win. But I'd prefer Almaty.

[phandrosis]

I hope Almaty wins. Maybe the IOC doesn't want to deal with the Tibet problems again...

When we see the index next week we'll probably be able to tell.

[StefanMUC]

Munich, Oslo, Stockholm, Calgary, Denver, Salzburg, Zurich. Oh if only the any of their Olympic Committees and/or governments hadn't been so blinded by the graftastic price tag of Sochi.

In Munich, it was the voters, all officials wanted it.

[yoshi]

I think it'll be Almaty. Two main reasons:

1) The whole world knows that human rights in China are about as common as tolerance from Donald Trump. Now, obviously Kazakhstan has similar problems but in terms of the IOC's public image (which is what matters to them more than anything), where a games in Beijing would create massive worldwide outcry, giving it to Almaty may lead to a general reaction of 'where's Kazakhstan?', then a massive worldwide outcry (hopefully). But not as loud as a Beijing one would be.

2) I think (& hope) that there is a 'romantic' faction within the IOC that would vote against Beijing to stop it having that magical position of first Summer/Winter host, in the hope that somewhere more deserving, ie Munich (or Barcelona, Stockholm etc) can take that role.

[Roger87]

If Munich, Oslo or Krakow would have stay in the race. Especially Munich...

I think Beijing will win but the difference of votes would have been small.

[FYI]

I think it'll be Almaty. Two main reasons:

1) The whole world knows that human rights in China are about as common as tolerance from Donald Trump. Now, obviously Kazakhstan has similar problems but in terms of the IOC's public image (which is what matters to them more than anything), where a games in Beijing would create massive worldwide outcry, giving it to Almaty may lead to a general reaction of 'where's Kazakhstan?', then a massive worldwide outcry (hopefully). But not as loud as a Beijing one would be.

2) I think (& hope) that there is a 'romantic' faction within the IOC that would vote against Beijing to stop it having that magical position of first Summer/Winter host, in the hope that somewhere more deserving, ie Munich (or Barcelona, Stockholm etc) can take that role.

Neither of these 'reasons' really mean anyone. For one, there's isn't gong to be a "massive worldwide outcry". These aren't the Summer Games where more of the world pays the most attention two. There really wasn't such an 'outcry' for 2008 to speak of other than the worldwide torch relay, where people in these protest group live off the adrenaline of talking such stances.

I agree, thougb, that the image of the IOC is really inportant to them. And really in this case, is where this actually works against Almaty. Precisely why many would say "where's Kazahkstan" is why the IOC is very likely to stay away.

Plus, Sochi - where I think there was more of a "massive worldwide outcry" when in came to Russia's anti-Gay laws, would give Almaty a similar impression. China isn't known either for pro-Gay rights, but they're also not viewed as such stringent fashion like it is in Russia & most of the former eastern block soviet states.

As for the second, if the IOC was really thinking in a "romantic faction", the wouldve given Munich that "magical position" for 2018 instead of giving it to PyeongChang. I believe some people put way too much emphasis on this "first city to host Summer & Winter Games". It's akin to the "centennial" arguments, etc. It's a trivial point that's neither here nor there, & it's more for the history books than it is for the IOC, especially when their not-so-great choices in the matter have other pressing issues to be determined.

*mean anything

**to - not two

[zekekelso]

Beijing. The IOC isn't going to choose to throw their big party in Kazahkstan.

[Nacre]

1) The whole world knows that human rights in China are about as common as tolerance from Donald Trump. Now, obviously Kazakhstan has similar problems but in terms of the IOC's public image (which is what matters to them more than anything), where a games in Beijing would create massive worldwide outcry, giving it to Almaty may lead to a general reaction of 'where's Kazakhstan?', then a massive worldwide outcry (hopefully). But not as loud as a Beijing one would be.

Not just "similar problems." In fact it has even worse human rights than China.

I would pick China if I were voting for the simple reason that the IOC will have to give a winter games to China at some point, whereas they can hope that they won't have to go to Central Asia until it has democratized more. If they pick Almaty for 2022 they will end up having to choose China again soon, whereas if they choose Beijing now they can keep the Chinese placated for a decade or two.

[LatinXTC]

I agree, thougb, that the image of the IOC is really inportant to them. And really in this case, is where this actually works against Almaty. Precisely why many would say "where's Kazahkstan" is why the IOC is very likely to stay away.

While people may not know where Kazahkstan is, I think there's a good amount of people that are aware of the country's existence. We have Borat to thank for that unfortunately. And the question is more "where's Almaty" than Kazahkstan, and that is the same question you can ask in various Olympic cities that still managed to win the right to hold the games: Where's Pyeongchang? Where's Sochi? Where's Torino? Where's Salt Lake City? Where's Nagano? Where's Albertville? Where's Lillehammer? WHERE'S ATLANTA???????

Also, in a WOGs the thing that should matter most above all else is having the right geographic location and weather to host the outdoor events, and Beijing simply is not that. Most of the major cities in the world are not suitable to ever host a WOGs because the right climate is not there and they are inconveniently far from the nearest mountain area to host outdoor events such as alpine skiing. And the IOC is very well aware of that and its past choices in WOGs have proven that.

[FYI]

Where's Pyeongchang? Where's Sochi? Where's Torino? Where's Salt Lake City? Where's Nagano? Where's Albertville? Where's Lillehammer? WHERE'S ATLANTA???????

Ummm, how about in South Korea! Russia! Italy! The USA! Japan! France! NORWAY!! ALL countries with significant winter sports power tradition & major global significance in comparison to Kazahkstan. Really apples & oranges to say the least.

And come on now. Most of us here know why Atlanta won. It was an anamoly. Athens just wasn't ready & the IOC was still on the high of the success L.A. '84 & was hoping to duplicate it. Not to mention the other cities on the 1996 roster weren't stellar candidates either.

Also, in a WOGs the thing that should matter most above all else is having the right geographic location and weather to host the outdoor events, and Beijing simply is not that. Most of the major cities in the world are not suitable to ever host a WOGs because the right climate is not there and they are inconveniently far from the nearest mountain area to host outdoor events such as alpine skiing. And the IOC is very well aware of that and its past choices in WOGs have proven that.

Oslo 2022 to Lillehammer is just about as far as Beijing 2022 to Zhangziakou. And before they dropped out, they were the virtual favorite. Vancouver 2010 to Whistler was a 2-hour trek. But no one complained there. As far as having the proper amenities in place, Beijing is the proper geographic location. The rest I'm quite sure the Chinese can handle. Beggars can't be choosers which is the type of situation the IOC is in now.

[Olympian2004]

So there's still quite a lot of interest in this race left At least I didn't expect so many answers in such a short time.

Here's my two pennies worth: I think it will be Almaty, even if Beijing stands a strong chance, simply because it's China and due to their experience as Olympic host, they might be a safer option than "newbie Almaty" for quite many IOC members.

But I think three important factors are very much in favour of Almaty:

1) Geopolitics. I think that the IOC simply doesn't want to award three Olympic Games in a row to East Asia. Okay, they did the same in 1986 and 1988 by awarding both 1992 Games plus the 1994 Games to European cities, but at least they spread those Games across different parts of the continent. And what also doesn't work in Beijing's geopolitical favour: Never before has the IOC awarded two Olympic Games within only 14 years to the same city - unless they were forced to (as in Innsbruck's case after Denver's withdrawal for the 1976 Winter Games).

2) Agenda 2020. While Beijing still struggles to make sustainable use of its 2008 venues and still would have to build additional venues for the 2022 Winter Games, Almaty has most venues already in place and would also offer "short distance Games".

3) Experience. Oddly enough, since I stated above that Beijing might appear as the safer option to many IOC members, due to its previous role as Olympic host. But unlike Almaty, Beijing and Zhangjiakou have no experience whatsoever in hosting major international winter sports competitions. Almaty, on the other hand, will have hosted the Asian Winter Games and the Winter Universiade by the time of the 2022 Games.

It will be quite a tight race, but Almaty is going to win.

[TorchbearerSydney]

All the way with Almaty for me- always more exciting heading off to a new frontier...it will send us in an absolute tizzy for 7 years!..

I love Central Asia, and Almaty has the resources and (just) enough experience to pull this off.

The inspections - especially Almaty's amazing compact bid, went very well for Almaty. Beijing's spread out plan, not so well.

[Sir Rols]

I'm for Mighty Almaty.

Honestly, I don't think they're as unelectable as some think, and I personally think they're a more appropriate WOG host than Beijing.

[JO2024]

Agreed. Almaty offers a much better bid than Beinjing. It's compact, it's wintery, it has mountains, it has many venues already in place, it's new, it's different. Beijing? AGAIN? Sames venues as in 2008? And come on, who would associate Beijing as a winter sport city? Why have they never hosted major winter sports competition before? At least Almaty did (or will do). But you know, it's China vs Azerbaidjan, so....

[zekekelso]

The IOC voters put the last two WOGs in Vancouver and Sochi. I don't think they care as much about "traditional winter setting" as some of you think.

[FYI]

So there's still quite a lot of interest in this race left At least I didn't expect so many answers in such a short time.

[ /quote]

Actually, it has been discussed ad naseum in the older threads over the past year. It just took a bit of a hiatus until you just brought it back up.

always more exciting heading off to a new frontier...it will send us in an absolute tizzy for 7 years!..

Lmfao, really? You mean like Sochi (& even PyeongChang) has sent everyone "in an absolute tizzy" for seven years?! Yeah, that would be a big non-tizzy, especially being Kazakstan. That's only your extreme partiality to Central Asia talking there.

The inspections - especially Almaty's amazing compact bid, went very well for Almaty. Beijing's spread out plan, not so well.

Guess you read a different report than the one GB posted. Citing that Almaty would pose "several challenges". But Beijjng's only negative was the snow issue.

The IOC voters put the last two WOGs in Vancouver and Sochi. I don't think they care as much about "traditional winter setting" as some of you think.

Yep.

[stryker]

I think it'll be Almaty. Two main reasons:

1) The whole world knows that human rights in China are about as common as tolerance from Donald Trump. Now, obviously Kazakhstan has similar problems but in terms of the IOC's public image (which is what matters to them more than anything), where a games in Beijing would create massive worldwide outcry, giving it to Almaty may lead to a general reaction of 'where's Kazakhstan?', then a massive worldwide outcry (hopefully). But not as loud as a Beijing one would be.

2) I think (& hope) that there is a 'romantic' faction within the IOC that would vote against Beijing to stop it having that magical position of first Summer/Winter host, in the hope that somewhere more deserving, ie Munich (or Barcelona, Stockholm etc) can take that role.

Beijing wins in a landslide.

The IOC cares next to nothing about any country's human rights record. That's well documented. I'm sure there are some within the IOC that would vote against Beijing in the hopes that maybe the honor of hosting both editions of the Olympics would go to Munich (most likely). At the end of the day though, Almaty was not just dead last but way behind all the other candidates in the initial IOC evaluation. They wouldn't even be on the shortlist.

[phandrosis]

I still believe the IOC will at least try to stand by their new standards and avoid China from doing another Sochi. In my opinion, if Beijing wins we can know for a fact Agenda 2020 is just words on paper, not an actual change to the IOC.

[phandrosis]

But Beijjng's only negative was the snow issue.

Beijing not having snow for the winter olympics is like a city not having water for a summer olympics. You can ship it in sure, but why not go somewhere that will always have it?

[Barcelona_'92]

Beijing will win, but I think the difference will be 10 votes or less. I have to believe that many of the IOC members from countries that actually care about the Winter Games will vote for Almaty due to the superior snow venues.

[Nacre]

Ummm, how about in South Korea! Russia! Italy! The USA! Japan! France! NORWAY!! ALL countries with significant winter sports power tradition & major global significance in comparison to Kazahkstan. Really apples & oranges to say the least.

In fairness Kazakhstan has only existed since 1991. So of course they don't have a lot of medals. But they have had a number of athletes who won medals in winter sports for the Soviet Union. And I think it's fair to say that they have more winter sports tradition than China.

[FYI]

In my opinion, if Beijing wins we can know for a fact Agenda 2020 is just words on paper, not an actual change to the IOC.

This isn't a legitimate race whatsoever to make such a boombastic declaration. It's gonna take at least a couple of cycles, with some real CREDIBLE options, whether or not agenda 2020 is the real deal or just talk. But when the alternative to Beijing is the lowest ranking applicant in the 2022 prelimanary evaluation, before all the Europeans dropped out, is hardly any indication that the IOC is not willing to heed their own words.

Considering how many tweaks Tokyo 2020 has done to their bid since agenda 2020 was revealed in order to cut costs, I'd say that they're on the right track already.

Beijing not having snow for the winter olympics is like a city not having water for a summer olympics. You can ship it in sure, but why not go somewhere that will always have it?

Right, because remind what a winter wonderland Sochi 2014 was. Even on some of the days of competition, temps sometimes hovered near a balmy 60*F. At least in Beijing it'll actually be cold.