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2028 or 2032 Combined Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane Bid

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To host, they need three things

1. RSA decides to bid

2. They pick Durban has their candidate city

3. IOC voters pick it over every other city

RSA has chosen to sit out the last four time... and they don't seem all that interested in jumping back in.

If RSA decides to bid, Durban is only one of three possible choices

Even If it bids, Durban is still a city with vastly less infrastructure than we expect from SOG host cities. Sure they have the "Africa Card" to play. But that's all they have. If they were anywhere else, their bid would be a laughing stock.

The most generous estimate I could see for Durban 2028 is 5%... realistically it's more like 1%. Odds are slightly higher if we include 2032 as well.. but it's still a real longshot.

Then who do you think will be Africa's first Olympic host city? It's going to happen sooner or later. 2024 isn't really a possibility, but I'd give them much better odds than 99-1.

As for your 3 things.. #1 will come at some point most likely. Considering South Africa is pushing Durban for the Commonwealth Games (where it was handed to them on a silver platter), that puts them in good position for #2. And with #3, depends on the circumstances of when they bid and who's against them. But ask Rio how that worked out from them from 2012 when they didn't even make the shortlist to 2016 when the won the vote by a pretty significant margin.

We all know that if Durban was in any other country on any other content, they wouldn't stand a chance. But they are in South Africa. And we know the IOC would like to hold an Olympics somewhere in Africa. So when those 2 circumstances come together (and who knows when that will be), I like their odds. That Africa card makes up for a lot of their deficiencies compared to other cities.

Commonwealth Games have never been a springboard to the Olympics.... I don't really think the Pan Am games had much to do with Rio winning

Certainly didn't hurt their prospects. Toronto went after the Pan Ams after losing an Olympic bid and I bet we'll see them again at some point bidding for an Olympics. So what if the Commonwealth Games have never been a springboard to the Olympics. That's because rarely, if ever, do you have a city who hosted them that has then been interested in the Olympics. That was the case with Rio. It may very well be the case with Durban and it could go a lot way towards helping them put in a stronger Olympic bid than you seem to think they are capable of.

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"Bach Rules Out Joint-City Olympic Bids"

By GB Staff | Published April 30, 2015 1:08 PM

During a visit in Australia this week, International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach made it known that the IOC would not accept a joint bid in any form.

The argument for a joint bid from Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane was reportedly put forward Wednesday by former Victorian sports minister Justin Madden who helped oversee the 2006 Melbourne Commonwealth Games and was backed by prominent businessman and major events expert Ron Walker, who said Olympic bids were too expensive for one city to justify.

Late last year the IOC passed Agenda 2020 – a set of charter reforms that in part called for the low cost, sustainable organization of future Games. In order to help achieve this goal, the IOC said they would relax the venue siting expectation of a compact plan. In some cases, it was said, individual venues could be held in another city – or in exceptional circumstances another nation.

These changes have opened the doors to more creative plans from various nations who may have been unable to meet expectations in the past. In December the IOC itself suggested that PyeongChang 2018 halt construction of its costly sliding venue to instead hold bobsleigh, luge and skeleton in Japan. Korean officials refused.

But based on Bach’s remarks, it seems that he and his IOC are trying to rein in any possibility that the use of widespread plans get out of control.

Bach met with Prime Minister Tony Abbot in Canberra Wednesday and discussed a regional bid for the 2028 Summer Games which would see both Brisbane and the Gold Coast host Olympic events, but although he indicated he supports the concept, Bach said it was out of the question for a Summer Games to be hosted in three major cities like Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane as advocated by Madden and Walker.

Madden said Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane could be linked by high-speed rail, making a Games hosting possible in his vision, provided the infrastructure was in place.

Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) head and IOC vice-president John Coates and Bach met with Sunshine Coast mayor Mark Jamieson in Sydney on Thursday and following their discussion, which also involved Brisbane Lord Mayor Graham Quirk, the AOC head said, “we talked about the feasibility of a regional bid which is within 100 km radius around Brisbane. It was clarified that really there will be one village, there will be no breaking from that and that’s critical to the IOC.

“As for having a bid that covers other cities, that’s totally ruled out by the president,” Coates said.

“You can go to other venues for reasons of sustainability for preliminary competitions, but really we want one Olympic Village for the whole of the Games, and for all of the 10,500 athletes and all of the 205 nations”.

Earlier this week, Bach said that he supported an Australian bid for the 2028 Olympic Games for which applications will not be accepted until 2019.

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Even If it bids, Durban is still a city with vastly less infrastructure than we expect from SOG host cities.

Well, they have more Olympic-suitable sporting infrastructure than Boston.

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Host cities for BRICS meetings:

- Yakaterinburg

- Brasilia

- Sanya

- New Delhi

- Durban

- Fortaleza

- Ufa

Not really a collection of city that screams "SOG Host".

As for infrastructure.... pretty sure Barcelona and Seoul had things like an extensive Metro system, intercontinental flights, significant tourist hotels, etc.

Commonwealth Games have never been a springboard to the Olympics.... I don't really think the Pan Am games had much to do with Rio winning

None of those cities had the same value as Durban. And if you read again my point, Durban HAD different events including the World Cup. So, you're twisting my point. The BRICS comment was related to show the current impact of the city.

And from Seoul, people tend to forget how was South Korea at the 70s-early 80s (It wasn't the current Seoul). Seoul was a chaotic city with dreadful infrastructure and lack of appeal. Barcelona was a small city with lack of fame and short development. The SOG gave the city the free pass to construct better projects. Right now, Durban is in the same situation as those cities. And if you can check, also Durban is one of the biggest destinies in South Africa.

Related to these events, yes, it's not the only reason, but in these particular cases, they help to create value and credibility for the bids. It's fine having doubts, but it's crazy having selective amnesia.

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And if you read again my point, Durban HAD different events including the World Cup. So, you're twisting my point. The BRICS comment was related to show the current impact of the city.

It's fine having doubts, but it's crazy having selective amnesia.

Hate to tell you, but that's the typical MO of the poster in question.

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Then who do you think will be Africa's first Olympic host city? I

Today? Johannesburg.

20-30-40 years from now? Who knows. If Cairo and/or Lagos can get 10-15 years of stability they jump up there (that's a big if of course). Will Narobi be ready by then?

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Well, they have more Olympic-suitable sporting infrastructure than Boston.

Do they? They have a big stadium. What about all the smaller venues?

And once you get beyond *sporting* infrastructure, it's not even close. Air transportation... public transportation... hotels... convention space... fine dining... tourist attractions... telecommunications... etc. Boston clobbers Durban. And Boston is a weak candidate compared to, say, Paris.

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And from Seoul, people tend to forget how was South Korea at the 70s-early 80s (It wasn't the current Seoul). Seoul was a chaotic city with dreadful infrastructure and lack of appeal. Barcelona was a small city with lack of fame and short development. The SOG gave the city the free pass to construct better projects. Right now, Durban is in the same situation as those cities. And if you can check, also Durban is one of the biggest destinies in South Africa.

To be fair about 1 thing here.. aside from the #1 reason why Barcelona got elected, they had a decent number of elements in place, many from the 1955 Mediterrean Games, plus a stadium originally built to attract an Olympics. And obviously a lot of their history was related to the Franco era, so they were ripe for urban renewal. So I wouldn't quite put Durban on that same level.

Today? Johannesburg.

20-30-40 years from now? Who knows. If Cairo and/or Lagos can get 10-15 years of stability they jump up there (that's a big if of course). Will Narobi be ready by then?

Johannesburg? At that altitude and with their weather?

This has been discussed before.. if the IOC is going to continue to show a preference for bids in the usual Summer window (and that intent will probably get even stronger after what FIFA is doing with 2022), the most favorable weather is in Durban. Johannesburg is a non-starter less you think the IOC would pick a city where the daily mean is about 55 degrees in August. Not going to happen.

Okay, so if we're talking 20 years from now, is there another city out there that could jump in ahead of Durban/South Africa? It's possible, but you're doubting the 3 choices you just gave us. So who is it going to be then? The IOC isn't going to force an African host ahead of its time just to hold their quadrennial event there, but when such a city comes forward (and I do believe that to be a matter of when, not if), the IOC will give them a long look even if they're not the most well-equipped to host an Olympics.

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Do they? They have a big stadium. What about all the smaller venues?

And once you get beyond *sporting* infrastructure, it's not even close. Air transportation... public transportation... hotels... convention space... fine dining... tourist attractions... telecommunications... etc. Boston clobbers Durban. And Boston is a weak candidate compared to, say, Paris.

Answered http://www.gamesbids.com/forums/topic/23482-durban-202428/page-24#entry475511 to avoid thread clutter.

On topic:

I am disappointed they won't allow dual city bids, but it's predictable. The winter games are de facto dual city bids. Whistler is almost as far from Vancouver as Brussels is from Amsterdam. (120 km vs 200 km.) Was Vancouver 2010 a failure because it had two villages? No. But the orgy in the village could have been much bigger with more people, and that's more important to the IOC than the economic legacy the games leave behind.

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Do they? They have a big stadium. What about all the smaller venues?

And once you get beyond *sporting* infrastructure, it's not even close. Air transportation... public transportation... hotels... convention space... fine dining... tourist attractions... telecommunications... etc. Boston clobbers Durban. And Boston is a weak candidate compared to, say, Paris.

Yeah, Durban isn't Paris, but again, how many cities are like Paris?

Nacre gave a great post of the sporting infrastructure, and still they prove technical efficiency in different events (Even some of them qualified by Olympic institutions) like athletics, football, swimming and others sports.

Air transportation? - Well, the King Shaka International Airport is currently considered one of the busiest airports of the Southern Hemisphere and the ninth busiest African Airport with high notes of efficiency by some studies including Skytrack. Perhaps it's still small in consideration of others, but they can still improve their good notes. And don't forget the Durban Port, as the third biggest container port.

Turist attractions - I guess it wasn't enough to have some of the most visited beaches in Southern Hemisphere, known for surfing? The largest Mall in South Africa? One of the biggest conservatory of birds around the world? The largest Casino and Entertainment Center in South Africa? And being the heart of the Zulu and Xhola nations and having one of the top Indian Overseas Communities in the World? And finally being the home of national teams in soccer, rugby and cricket? So your perception of tourism must be impacable to reach for the mortals.

Fine Dinning - Again, being the exact mirror of the rainbow nation must be a boring gastronomy :rolleyes:

Convention Space - Perhaps having one of the biggest convention centres of the World, with high technology and prestige would solve part of the problem. And that's not counting how Durban is considerated one of the biggest centres for international bussiness in the Southern Hemisphere, according to many economist sources.

Telecomunications - Ditto

The only point I gave you is the public transport. But then, they have the prospect to create new systems. Yes, not of all is perfect, but in highsight all of your "criticism" is wrong and biased in ridiculous standards. For that, Durban has the upper hand in consideration.

Today? Johannesburg.

20-30-40 years from now? Who knows. If Cairo and/or Lagos can get 10-15 years of stability they jump up there (that's a big if of course). Will Narobi be ready by then?

And this is the evidence why anyone wouldn't take seriously your criticism for Durban. Did you write this without checking facts or do you have something against Durban than even need to create fallacies? Because it's cucko.

Quaker explained all of Johannesburg (Beside it's even a ridiculous idea), so I will talk about the others:

Cairo

If Durban is a mess of city with lack of infrastructure as you remark, you need to go to Cairo to understand the real concept of mess. Horrible public transport (The metro isn't enough for a city of 10.2 millions, heck, it's not enough for a city of half of the population), lack of public spaces, real chaos in construction and dirt. And this situation isn't exactly recent.

Lagos

Perhaps Nigeria has money (I recognize that), but also the country is on the edge of a civil war. And that's not counting Lagos is a complete disaster for visiters. The roads have irregular comerciants, there's not public order (Even for minimum) and again, if you constantly downing Durban, why did you put a worse city in these conditions

Nairobi

Not counting for the fact Nairobi has the largest slum of the World. But the most ridiculous aspect, you put Kenya, when the country has only a quarter of the gdp of South Africa (With an economy smaller than Greece, Uruguay and Romania), it's one of the most critical countries related to potable water in the world and the political inestability of the region with close neighborns like Somalia, Yemen and Sudan.

Yeah, some things can change in 10 or 15 years, but even some problems can't be solved or improved in that timeline.

Or you are biased in a terrible way, or this is a full trolling, because nothing of your "arguments" can explain why Durban is so overrated, and even with the counter part, your arguments look worse.

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Also, albeit from the 2022 Commonwealth Games, checking the venues, most of them can be adapted and used for SOG.

http://www.durban-2022.com/

Not only they have a big stadium (As you wrongfully mentioned), but also have two Aquatic Centers, an Exhibition Center and other small stadiums (Like King Park). Yes, Durban is not a Paris or London, but in sporting infrwstructure they can adapt a competent work.

Maybe saying people would suffer attacks of sharks or snakes would have better to justify the negative for Durban LMFAO.

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And Durban will NOT make any legacy plans when bidding for the Olympic Games. They will deteriorate; tear down their existing venues to say: Ha! We were a stupid, useless city to bid for the hosted the IOC in 2011; hosted the CWGs in 2022; and not carry the hopes of a progressing nation of over 50 million people and a continent of over 50 countries. :rolleyes:

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Wow the comments on my city in here are sometimes so enlightening to me. I won't comment on them here, I will do so in the Durban thread. Far too many threads go way way off topic here

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St. Petersburg could well be a danger to that list. You can bet Vlad's gonna try & make that happen sooner rather than later.

Nope, Yoshi. Not happening.

http://gamesbids.com/eng/summer-olympic-bids/2024-olympic-bid-news/russia-says-2024-olympic-bid-off-the-table/?hootPostID=a1fbf5473b8ccbb5e36793aa5ffbf9af

Even the largest land-mass nation on earth wouldn't be so stupid as to think that they could grab the Summer Games again so soon after already hosting the most expensive Winter Games ever. I can't see Russia trying again until after all the sanctions against them are lifted -- for all their adventurism in Ukraine, etc.

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I am from Brisbane - I don't see it as an Olympic host yet.

Plus we only hosted it as a country in 2000 so shouldn't bid before 2036.

I think South Africa should host one for sure, as should the united states again.

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And that's just it, isn't it? We just hosted in 2000 - I don't think there is any lustful urge in the Australian population or political landscape to do it again so soon.

Realistically 2040 is a good starting point . Who knows, Melbourne might be one of few previous hosts that gets to host again on its centennial in 2056.

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Why don't we just scrap any idea of a Summer Olympics again and focus on the Southern Hemisphere's first Winter Olympics?

Canberra and the Perisher Valley region. Expand the SkiTube (railway) and extend it to Canberra. Make it dual track like it was originally supposed to be. Extend the vertical of Thredbo to meet the 800m drop required for Men's Downhill.

Canberra gets a 12,000 seater new arena, a replacement for the AIS arena (with the existing one still being used in a renovated form), both for Ice Hockey II and Curling respectively as well as the Southern Hemisphere's own Speed Skating Oval. A temporary 10,000 arena will serve Ice Hockey I. The new stadium will serve ceremonies.

The Sliding track, Ski Jump and Biathlon/Cross Country Skiing centres will of course be in the Perisher Valley. Canberra hosting the ice events and ceremonies.

It can work, if we tried. I guess once NZ raises their hand up eventually, we gotta just announce ourselves to blow them out of the water.

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Why don't we just scrap any idea of a Summer Olympics again and focus on the Southern Hemisphere's first Winter Olympics?

Canberra and the Perisher Valley region. Expand the SkiTube (railway) and extend it to Canberra. Make it dual track like it was originally supposed to be. Extend the vertical of Thredbo to meet the 800m drop required for Men's Downhill.

Canberra gets a 12,000 seater new arena, a replacement for the AIS arena (with the existing one still being used in a renovated form), both for Ice Hockey II and Curling respectively as well as the Southern Hemisphere's own Speed Skating Oval. A temporary 10,000 arena will serve Ice Hockey I. The new stadium will serve ceremonies.

The Sliding track, Ski Jump and Biathlon/Cross Country Skiing centres will of course be in the Perisher Valley. Canberra hosting the ice events and ceremonies.

It can work, if we tried. I guess once NZ raises their hand up eventually, we gotta just announce ourselves to blow them out of the water.

Computer says no.

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Why don't we just scrap any idea of a Summer Olympics again and focus on the Southern Hemisphere's first Winter Olympics?

Canberra and the Perisher Valley region. Expand the SkiTube (railway) and extend it to Canberra. Make it dual track like it was originally supposed to be. Extend the vertical of Thredbo to meet the 800m drop required for Men's Downhill.

Canberra gets a 12,000 seater new arena, a replacement for the AIS arena (with the existing one still being used in a renovated form), both for Ice Hockey II and Curling respectively as well as the Southern Hemisphere's own Speed Skating Oval. A temporary 10,000 arena will serve Ice Hockey I. The new stadium will serve ceremonies.

The Sliding track, Ski Jump and Biathlon/Cross Country Skiing centres will of course be in the Perisher Valley. Canberra hosting the ice events and ceremonies.

It can work, if we tried. I guess once NZ raises their hand up eventually, we gotta just announce ourselves to blow them out of the water.

48595809.jpg

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Well it's certainly more realistic than a Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane bid!

With less and less cities being interested in the Winter Olympics, eventually a Southern Hemisphere city will host at least once.

When NZ does decide to bid, we'll just bid in that race as well to annoy them and give them ZERO hope of landing the Games.

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Yes, and those Southern Hemisphere cities will be Christchurch or Santiago - not Canberra. Just because it snows in Canberra and is close to ski resorts doesn't make it a viable option.

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Well it's certainly more realistic than a Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane bid!

anigif_enhanced-buzz-13418-1349223535-0.

It's just as realistic as a Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane bid, in that it's not realistic at all.

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Yes, and those Southern Hemisphere cities will be Christchurch or Santiago - not Canberra. Just because it snows in Canberra and is close to ski resorts doesn't make it a viable option.

Umm... and who exactly in NZ or Chile have been winning Winter Olympic medals lately? Will we see the first ever Olympics where the host nation has won NO medals? ;)

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