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Canada in Rio.


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Well holy sh!t that was some start.

London 2012 started off with a 2-1 lose to Japan. So this is an improvement.

Best part is, that if Canada beats Zimbabwe and finishes second in the group they will not be able to face Brazil and USA and likely won't see France either. So it would leave Canada with a very winnable game against Sweden to get to the semi-finals and a likely bronze medal match against Brazil. If the tournament goes to form and it is USA vs. Germany in the final.

Anyways on to the next round of action

Basketball:

Canada plays China at 1:15pm, very winnable game

Beach Volleyball

Canada 2 plays Brazil 2 on the men's side

Cycling

3 Canadians go in the Men's Road Race. Top 20 finish is probably the best that can be hoped for.

Field Hockey

Canada plays Germany, they'll get crushed

Judo

Sergio Pessoa in the 60kg category. He is a skilled Judoka but not skilled enough to get into the medal conversation

Rowing

A couple of boats start their journey. Women's single sculls and Men's quad. This should be interesting

Rugby

Canada plays their two easier opponents of Japan and Brazil

Shooting

Lydia Kiejko is competing in the 10m air rifle, not a hope in hell

Football

Canada plays Zimbabwe, the weakest team in the tournament

Swimming

This is the big highlight of the schedule for Canada. 3 medal chances of various degrees of possibility. Including 2 of the 3 medals from last years world championships. Emily Overholt is a medal contender in the 400m individual medley, Ryan Cochrane in the men's 400m freestyle and the women's 4x100m freestyle relay. Oleksiak could be the biggest difference in the relay, she is a huge improvement over Savard. 

All goes well and Day 1 will have 3 bronzes. 

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Boxing draws are out.. not good for Canada

Bujold will fight an Uzbek boxer than if she wins the Chinese boxer is next (winner wins a medal, but the Chinese boxer is the defending silver medalist 

Fortin will fight a Kazakh boxer than faces a Moroccan who she lost to at the worlds in May.

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Judo draw was very unkind to the men.

Valois Fortier faces a French in the first round (a person who has lost to 3/4 times). He last beat him at the 2014 Worlds, but lost to him at the 2015 Worlds. 

Reyes drew the European Champion in the first round, out of all the unseeded people. However Reyes is kinda of an unknown entity and has shown signs of being among the world's best, so who knows.

Guica has a Russian (top 8 ranked) athlete in the first round, with a win she will enter the medal round. However she is 0/2 all time against her.

Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard and Zupancic are one win each from entering the medal rounds, but both are scheduled to face top 3 ranked athletes in the QF's. BP actually beat the Korean who is ranked above in May (at the last qualification event for Rio, so maybe she is our best chance for a medal). Zupancic is 0/5 against the Dutch athlete who she likely will face in the qf's

Pessoa's first round is against a seeded Gerogian, who he is 0/2 against.

Bouchard faces an athlete from PNG first, should be a comofrtable win, then a seeded Russian is next. 

 

Realistically one medal from CBP ...

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18 minutes ago, Faster said:

Was it ever a medal chance? He did about as well as I had expected.

 

He was the bronze medalist at the 2013 worlds... with a good qualification round he would have avoided the big names early. He could have shot much better.

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A mixed bag for Canada today so far. But Penny Oleksiak...., so happy to see her do well. She was a huge breathe of fresh air at the trials and for her to not become another Annamay Pierce and the other women that have done well in everything but major championships.

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So Day 1 In Review

Basketball:

Canada had a comfortable win against China. 

Beach Volleyball

A good lose against Bruno and Alison. Being so competitive against a probable medalist is a good start.

Equestrian

Meh results, the Eventing Team has never lived up to potential after the silver at the World Equestrian Games a few years back

Fencing

Leonora MacKinnon did about as well as one could have anticipated. She is young and lost to the World Champion. At least she won a match. More then can be said for top 10 ranked Sherraine Schalm.

Cycling

Pathetic, 55th and two DNFs

Gymnastics

Meh results for a meh gymnasts. 

Judo

It was what it was

Rowing

Conditions were sh!t, Carling Zeeman did well, Rob Gibson f-cked up royally. Hopefully they can come back from that because they looked good before the mistake

Soccer

Good result against Zimbabwe, but the scare with Australia vs. Germany. 

Tennis

Bouchard had a great match against a tough opponent. Up against Kerber next is going to be the end of the line.

Swimming

Great round of results today. 3 Canadian records. Two top 5 finishes.

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Wow, what a day. A dissapointment in diving, but great stuff everywhere else. A new star was born in the form of Penny Oleksiak , 3 beach volleyball teams won, and the men's volleyball team with a huge sweep of the powerful Americans. Not to mention the rugby sevens team doing well to move to the semis and avoid New Zealand until potentially the final. 

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Rugby was always going to come down to those four teams. And on any given day any of those teams can beat each other. No offense to our Aussie and kiwi friends but I would love a rematch against Britain in the final to get some revenge. That is not the Canadian women I know and have watched in person. More thoughts when I am not on my phone. 

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Just to put into perspective the Canadian swimmers:

Sydney 2000

13 finals, 1 bronze medal

Athens 2004

3 finals, 5th place as highest finish

Beijing 2008

10 finals, 1 bronze medal

London 2012

7 finals, 1 silver, 1 bronze

Rio 2016

5 finals, 1 silver, 1 bronze from 10 events. 

2 days of swimming and the Canadian team can all thank one surprise bronze medal from Ryan Cochrane 8 years ago.

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Ok so my thoughts from the weekend:

The Good

  1. Canada women's teams. Great early results from the women in football, basketball and rugby
  2. Men's volleyball. A win against Mexico should be enough to get them into the medal rounds. 
  3. Antoine Bouchard in judo, lots of good wins. 4 more years and he should be in the medal conversation again
  4. Shallon Olsen in vault, another 16 yr/old punching above her weight
  5. Tennis, with all the upsets if any of the 3 remaining Canadian chances can keep their heads and cause an upset of their own there could be a tennis medal in the offing for the first time in 16 years
  6. Women's beach volleyball
  7. Swimming, even the men have been beating expectations. Hopefully Kylie Masse can push it in her final

The Bad

  1. Cycling results so far, should have been top 20 finishes. Pathetic results
  2. Slalom canoe/kayak. 
  3. Women's gymnastics. Messy performances and Ellie Black was completely off. 0.2 of a point to get into the final
  4. Missing a medal in synchro by less then a point. Hopefully the other 3 medal chances can convert
  5. Men's beach volleyball

The Ugly

  1. Women's archery. Placing behind the athletes who got pitty places
  2. Men's quads. Huge mistake to not go for the 8's. 
  3. CBC coverage, too much jumping, too many commercials and the interview with Rob Gibson after the Quads today was tactless. 30 yr/old trying not to cry on camera and you had to bring up the oar incident

The Expected

  1. Archery
  2. Fencing
  3. Field Hockey
  4. Shooting, but should be noted that Cynthia Mayer lost a shoot-off to the eventual gold medalist. Great result that will give shooting more money over the next 4 years

So overall a solid weekend for Canada but there is still a wide path that Canada could move through to their eventual performance. Need a few more surprise medals.

Edited by Faster
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