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Johannesburg 2024


MissEurasia
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yeah, yeah, yeah. The cities are stupid if they don't use Agenda 2020 to their benefit.

I still say bid everything that the IOC wants to hear. And when you got the package, just start deleting.

Not all cities need the Agenda 2020 though. The Agenda 2020 is only there to help cities that wouldn't have stood a chance before the Agenda 2020. Cities that have hosted a modern day Olympics obviously didn't need Agenda 2020, along with some other cities that haven't hosted yet. I think Durban would still stand a good chance of hosting, even without using Agenda 2020 to it's advantage.

We all know the IOC wants to take the Summer Olympics to Africa, so that the Olympics has been hosted on every Continent. I would be very surprised if Durban still hasn't hosted the Summer Olympics within the next 20-25 years. It's perfect timing for Durban, having hosted some Football matches during the 2010 Fifa World Cup, still in the bidding for the 2022 Commonwealth Games, which is why I think Durban should wait to bid for 2028 instead, so that it has that bit more experience. Yes, I know the 2028 decision will happen in 2021, but by 2021, if Durban is the 2022 Commonwealth Games host, a lot of the Venues and Infrastructure projects in Durban would have been completed. Also, I assume many of us would agree that a Summer Olympic Games in Africa is going to happen. All I have to say now is, Geopolitics.

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Well, Tony, I think we'll see by spring where Durban has its head at. As our main in Durban, dysan1, says it looks like Durban and the SAOC really aren't all that jazzed about going for the 2022 CWGs. So, we'll see what the spring brings and if Durban tosses its hat into the 2024 race, I think that'll turn everything upside down.

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Well, it does look like Durbans bid for the 2022 Commonwealth Games is starting to lose interest, Edmonton looks like they're miles ahead of Durban, considering they've got their logo etc and that was months ago, we have no logo fron Durban and does it even have a website? If it's starting to lose more interest then Durban should just drop the bid and give it to Edmonton....

What I think is going to happen is a domestic bid race between Durban and a joint bid from Johannesburg and Pretoria and possibly a Cape Town, Durban would probably be the front-runner with Cape Town being the Dark Horse? Or should that be Johannesburg? I don't know, anyways, Durban would probably win the domestic bid race and apply for 2024, but, I would say Johannesburg would be the backup for 2028.

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Even though Durban aren't showing much progress in there bid for the 2022 Commonwealth Games, they still seem to be South Africa's favourite bidder for future Summer Olympic bids. I assume Cape Town would be the back up plan, I don't know. Either way, South Africa seem serious about bidding for a Summer Olympics.

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True.... But you have to consider the other African bidder too, like Nairobi and Casablanca, Maybe Cairo and Abuja (Long Shot) might bid too

I can't see another African country getting shortlisted. It's really South Africa or bust for the continent at this point. Maybe way down the road it may be a different story....

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Unless it's changed, the two cities in Africa with anywhere nears enough hotel accommodation for a major event like the OSGs are Cairo and Durban. Both have issues, obviously, but on balance Durban is the more likely bid.

Capetown is stunning but surprisingly small. Where would they build the hotels, let alone the additional sport venues? Joburg is ostensibly larger, but it's got major international PR issues. Though Durban isn't exactly safe, it doesn't have the negative reputation that Joburg has.

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  • 1 month later...

Neither is Durban. If the Olymics come to RSA, they IOC will have to be serious about redefining an Olympic City.. or they will have to make some compromises.

Well why is Durban not?

Again it comes down to what you as an individual define an Olympic city to be. To be it is a close knit festival of sport that becomes the centre of the city and world. I personally believe many of the world cities are too big for the Olympics to really men anything in that environment.

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Well why is Durban not?

Again it comes down to what you as an individual define an Olympic city to be. To be it is a close knit festival of sport that becomes the centre of the city and world. I personally believe many of the world cities are too big for the Olympics to really men anything in that environment.

Is that a long-held belief or something you've conveniently come to believe just because it happens to fit Durbans' likely hosting model?

Sorry to sound cynical Dysan, but we do get posters on this forum who rather than just supporting their city become quickly convinced what their city proposes is the only "right" way of doing it.

Edited by Rob.
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Is that a long-held belief or something you've conveniently come to believe just because it happens to fit Durbans' likely hosting model?

Sorry to sound cynical Dysan, but we do get posters on this forum who rather than just supporting their city become quickly convinced what their city proposes is the only "right" way of doing it.

I think it's arguing semantics here, particularly how we're looking at the situation. I mean, Atlanta is an Olympic city. New York and Chicago are not. So what does that really mean anyway? Especially the Americans here have gotten in some heated discussions over what cities could or couldn't host an Olympics (which is different than the list of cities who stand any legitimate shot of getting elected as host city by the IOC). Still, if we are to believe that a city in South Africa is destined to host an Olympics someday, than that city is going to be an Olympic city, whether it's an alpha or not. And I think the standards that we think of in terms of a London or a Beijing or a Sydney may not apply equally.

To dysan's point, I get somewhat what he's saying. When the Super Bowl was here the New York area last year, there were some that felt this city was too big for the game, that it didn't touch everyone in the area like it would a smaller city. Aside from our own personal viewpoints though, if Durban has the means to put on an Olympics and might eventually curry enough favor with the IOC to get elected (and I believe that to be true, at least in theory, particularly as compared to Jo'burg) then it's more of an Olympic city than we might want to give it credit for.

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I think it's arguing semantics here, particularly how we're looking at the situation. I mean, Atlanta is an Olympic city. New York and Chicago are not. So what does that really mean anyway? Especially the Americans here have gotten in some heated discussions over what cities could or couldn't host an Olympics (which is different than the list of cities who stand any legitimate shot of getting elected as host city by the IOC). Still, if we are to believe that a city in South Africa is destined to host an Olympics someday, than that city is going to be an Olympic city, whether it's an alpha or not. And I think the standards that we think of in terms of a London or a Beijing or a Sydney may not apply equally.

To dysan's point, I get somewhat what he's saying. When the Super Bowl was here the New York area last year, there were some that felt this city was too big for the game, that it didn't touch everyone in the area like it would a smaller city. Aside from our own personal viewpoints though, if Durban has the means to put on an Olympics and might eventually curry enough favor with the IOC to get elected (and I believe that to be true, at least in theory, particularly as compared to Jo'burg) then it's more of an Olympic city than we might want to give it credit for.

Part of the problem with the Super Bowl in New York was it wasn't actually in New York, it was in New Jersey. If it was in say Manhattan or Queens perhaps there's a different feel to it.

Durban might not be the traditional "Olympic city" but if the IOC really wants to go to Africa, there's going to have to be concessions, and given the recent events regarding the farce the 2022 race has become and the reforms with Agenda 2020, I think that combined with the appeal of the first African Olympics, that Durban won't have a problem if and when they decide to bid. I've stated before all South African bid has to be is credible. If they can meet minimum IOC guidelines, they'll have no problem winning.

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Durban is the best choice when the IOC takes the Olympics to Africa. I can't see the 2022 Commonwealth Games getting in the way of 2024.

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Part of the problem with the Super Bowl in New York was it wasn't actually in New York, it was in New Jersey. If it was in say Manhattan or Queens perhaps there's a different feel to it.

Durban might not be the traditional "Olympic city" but if the IOC really wants to go to Africa, there's going to have to be concessions, and given the recent events regarding the farce the 2022 race has become and the reforms with Agenda 2020, I think that combined with the appeal of the first African Olympics, that Durban won't have a problem if and when they decide to bid. I've stated before all South African bid has to be is credible. If they can meet minimum IOC guidelines, they'll have no problem winning.

I think a South African bid has to be more than just credible. It has to be desirable to the IOC. I think after Sochi, Rio, Pyeonchang and, possibly, Almaty (though I think Beijing will prevail), the IOC will desire something more tried and true, something more stable, a place it thinks it *needs* to be, something that re-establishes its cred among its 1st world membership. To me, that says 2024 will be in Europe (possibly the US if European cities' bids falter).

Durban and South Africa may get its shot, but I am a strong believer that it will absolutely not be 2024 and likely not 2028, either.

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And what makes you think that the IOC doesn't "desire" an African Olympics already? Bcuz all early indicators is that they all already do, unless one hasn't been paying attention to them over the last few years.

The IOC already has a "tried & true" host already set up for 2020 with Tokyo. So unless no real desirable &/or credible European bid doesn't come forth but South Africa does, they would be a formidable opponent. Barring a total disaster from Rio (which I don't foresee anyway), the IOC is going to want to extend their brand once again, sooner rather than later. Especially when again, the IOC can already relax with 2020.

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Durban might not be the traditional "Olympic city" but if the IOC really wants to go to Africa, there's going to have to be concessions, and given the recent events regarding the farce the 2022 race has become and the reforms with Agenda 2020, I think that combined with the appeal of the first African Olympics, that Durban won't have a problem if and when they decide to bid. I've stated before all South African bid has to be is credible. If they can meet minimum IOC guidelines, they'll have no problem winning.

I think a South African bid has to be more than just credible. It has to be desirable to the IOC. I think after Sochi, Rio, Pyeonchang and, possibly, Almaty (though I think Beijing will prevail), the IOC will desire something more tried and true, something more stable, a place it thinks it *needs* to be, something that re-establishes its cred among its 1st world membership. To me, that says 2024 will be in Europe (possibly the US if European cities' bids falter).

Durban and South Africa may get its shot, but I am a strong believer that it will absolutely not be 2024 and likely not 2028, either.

And what makes you think that the IOC doesn't "desire" an African Olympics already? Bcuz all early indicators is that they all already do, unless one hasn't been paying attention to them over the last few years.

The IOC already has a "tried & true" host already set up for 2020 with Tokyo. So unless no real desirable &/or credible European bid doesn't come forth but South Africa does, they would be a formidable opponent. Barring a total disaster from Rio (which I don't foresee anyway), the IOC is going to want to extend their brand once again, sooner rather than later. Especially when again, the IOC can already relax with 2020.

Seeing the phrase "first African Olympics" used in that context is like nails on a chalkboard to me at this point. Rio bid twice to have the "first South American Olympics" and failed to make the shortlist. Then they bid a 3rd time and won. Did that factor change? No. It was something that was appealing in the right time and place. Obviously any African city that bids is trying to be the first African host of the Olympics. So we need to stop treating that as a thing as if its not an inherent quality of any city bidding from Africa.

I'm largely with aquaman on this point. We know the IOC would like to hold an Olympics in Africa, but they need the opportunity to present itself. And it needs to happen in a time and place where the IOC wants to choose them over the competition they're up against. For me, the geopolitics of 2024 are pointing towards Europe. I think all things considered, it will be their desire to award the 2024 Olympics to a European city. Obviously a lot depends on their options. Right now though, it seems like we're going to get a least 1 strong city from Europe and it doesn't seem like we'll get an African bid. Certainly that could change, as if we've forgotten the lessons of 2022.

So no, Durban (or whoever gets put forward from Africa) needs to be more than a halfway decent bid. They still need to be the city that stands out from the rest as the one that IOC voters want to choose as their Olympic host. That "desire" to go to Africa will get measured relative to other candidates. And I disagree with FYI that the IOC can relax based on their 2020 pick. If Durban did in fact bid for 2024 but was in a field that included 1 or more of the European heavyweights, I think they'd lose. I absolutely think the IOC would make them wait a cycle. However, should Europe land the 2024 Olympics, then come 2028, I think Africa would have a much easier path to victory.

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Durban is the best choice when the IOC takes the Olympics to Africa. I can't see the 2022 Commonwealth Games getting in the way of 2024.

I can. South Africa is weary of hosting 1 of these events. Now you're asking them to go after 2 in a very short timeframe? If they do host the CWG in 2022, they'll probably want to wait before hosting another big event. As much as 1 will help the other in terms of costs, it's still an expensive endeavor for either/or. Both of them might be more than they're willing to take on.

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I can. South Africa is weary of hosting 1 of these events. Now you're asking them to go after 2 in a very short timeframe? If they do host the CWG in 2022, they'll probably want to wait before hosting another big event.

Not only that of course but the IOC will be less likely to pick them for 2024 as well even if they did bid, knowing they have a great opportunity to asses them as they prepare for 2022,

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Not only that of course but the IOC will be less likely to pick them for 2024 as well even if they did bid, knowing they have a great opportunity to asses them as they prepare for 2022,

That too. For all that Rogge wanted South Africa to enter the 2020 race following the World Cup, SASCOC wasn't feeling it. So I give them a lot of credit for showing some restraint. They'll bid when they feel they're ready. And if the lead up to the 2022 CWG (assuming that happens) is looking good, then the 2028 Olympics might be there's for the taking.

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Rio bid twice to have the "first South American Olympics" and failed to make the shortlist. Then they bid a 3rd time and won. Did that factor change? No. It was something that was appealing in the right time and place.

This is precisely the point. But I think we're looking at the same results with a different set of lenses yet again when it comes to this particular subject.

Yeah, Rio bid twice before until they finally got the Games on their third try. But what was that one & only crucial difference on that third try? That Rio was actually on the 2016 shortlist! So the FULL IOC membership was then able to vote on where they actually "desired" to take those Games to. I've always acknowledged anyway that would be South Africa's major intitial hurdle is to get on that short-list. But when/if they did, then all bets would then be off, just like it was for Rio.

I also think it's safe to say that the IOC has been more vocal about Africa in recent years than they ever were about South America. And of course, let's also not forget that same old argument around here on how the IOC views "the Americas" as one continent anyway.

We know the IOC would like to hold an Olympics in Africa, but they need the opportunity to present itself. And it needs to happen in a time and place where the IOC wants to choose them over the competition they're up against.

So no, Durban (or whoever gets put forward from Africa) needs to be more than a halfway decent bid. They still need to be the city that stands out from the rest as the one that IOC voters want to choose as their Olympic host. That "desire" to go to Africa will get measured relative to other candidates.

That's obviously stating the obvious, though. And of course any South African bid would have to be more than halfway decent. No one here is suggesting that they just throw something together & voila! South Africa here we come!

For me, the geopolitics of 2024 are pointing towards Europe. I think all things considered, it will be their desire to award the 2024 Olympics to a European city. Obviously a lot depends on their options. Right now though, it seems like we're going to get a least 1 strong city from Europe and it doesn't seem like we'll get an African bid. Certainly that could change, as if we've forgotten the lessons of 2022.

And I disagree with FYI that the IOC can relax based on their 2020 pick. If Durban did in fact bid for 2024 but was in a field that included 1 or more of the European heavyweights, I think they'd lose. I absolutely think the IOC would make them wait a cycle. However, should Europe land the 2024 Olympics, then come 2028, I think Africa would have a much easier path to victory.

So are you saying that Tokyo is somehow some sort of risky endeavor? If so, then you & I must be thinking about two totally different Tokyo's.

I've never suggested that South Africa would come in sweep the day & get 2024. Of course Paris & perhaps Berlin would give them a good run for their money. However, I think taking it to the other extreme (like another person did) that Paris would "easily" defeat Durban, is also not very sound, with all things considered.

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This is precisely the point. But I think we're looking at the same results with a different set of lenses yet again when it comes to this particular subject.

Yeah, Rio bid twice before until they finally got the Games on their third try. But what was that one & only crucial difference on that third try? That Rio was actually on the 2016 shortlist! So the FULL IOC membership was then able to vote on where they actually "desired" to take those Games to. I've always acknowledged anyway that would be South Africa's major intitial hurdle is to get on that short-list. But when/if they did, then all bets would then be off, just like it was for Rio.

I also think it's safe to say that the IOC has been more vocal about Africa in recent years than they ever were about South America. And of course, let's also not forget that same old argument around here on how the IOC views "the Americas" as one continent anyway.

Not questioning for a sec that the IOC wants to go to Africa more than they wanted to go to South America. If we're looking at Rio's history, look at the 3 times they bid. The first time, for 2004, there were 11 candidates. For 2012, there were 9 including all the European heavyweights. By 2016, there were only 7 and that included Doha and Baku who failed to make the shortlist. So yes, that was a big hurdle for them, but that part of it had a lot to do with the competition they were up against, even moreso than the experience from the Pan Ams that we also cite as what got them over the hump.

Let's say Durban bids for 2024 and makes the shortlist. This is definitely where you and I disagree because I still don't like how they stack up in a field with some notable European cities. So to say all bets are off.. I don't see it that way. As much as the IOC talks about going to Africa, I still question whether they'll be top vote getter in this race.

That's obviously stating the obvious, though. And of course any South African bid would have to be more than halfway decent. No one here is suggesting that they just throw something together & voila! South Africa here we come!

Semantics. All depends on people's definition of "credible." But yes, some have suggested that Durban could present a flawed bid but the IOC would be willing to overlook those flaws. And like I said, give credit to South Africa that they are holding back on bidding until they think they're ready.

So are you saying that Tokyo is somehow some sort of risky endeavor? If so, then you & I must be thinking about two totally different Tokyo's.

I've never suggested that South Africa would come in sweep the day & get 2024. Of course Paris & perhaps Berlin would give them a good run for their money. However, I think taking it to the other extreme (like another person did) that Paris would "easily" defeat Durban, is also not very sound, with all things considered.

Did I say Tokyo is a risky endeavor? Am I suggesting that you're suggesting South Africa is an easy winner? No on both counts. No, Tokyo is not a risky endeavor. But I don't necessarily see the attitude of the IOC being that Tokyo is safe and therefore they can take a risk on a new frontier for 2024. I still think their preference, if they had the option, would be a big city in Europe. Who knows if they'll get that, though.

I think this is another one of those situations where our viewpoints are similar, we're just expressing them differently. If the 2024 race did include Durban and a couple of the European heavyweights, in addition to Boston of course, I think it would be a close and interesting battle, No one would run away with it, but not know what each city has to offer, at this point I still put Paris at the top of the pecking order. IMO, Durban would need to stand out for something other than being in Africa to get the win. But no doubt they'd be competitive either way.

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Yeah, Rio bid twice before until they finally got the Games on their third try. But what was that one & only crucial difference on that third try? That Rio was actually on the 2016 shortlist! So the FULL IOC membership was then able to vote on where they actually "desired" to take those Games to. I've always acknowledged anyway that would be South Africa's major intitial hurdle is to get on that short-list. But when/if they did, then all bets would then be off, just like it was for Rio.

Rio's shortlist for the 2016 games was not without its controversy. Its evaluation score was the lowest, rated lower than that of Doha, and made the shortlist. Realistically though no one believes Doha would have been given a fighting chance in the race, as well they shouldn't.

And Rio proved itself to be fully capable of hosting a large event as proven by the 2007 Pan American games, which Rio just finished hosting less than 2 months before the application deadline for the 2016 games, so it was fresh in the mind of the IOC.

I believe any African city that is hopeful of hosting the Olympics should have to prove themselves like Rio did that they are fully capable of hosting an event like the Olympics, and that doesn't include the Rugby and soccer/football World Cups, or any other large event that is scattered throughout one country. Those events like the World Cup do not put all of the strain on just one city during the whole event, except for maybe just a couple of days here and there like the first and last game.

Never understood why those African cities interested in hosting the Olympics tried to prepare and show their worth by hosting the Commonwealth Games sooner, or even the All-African games.

*by lowest I meant the lowest in the field of shortlisted cities.

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I'm well aware of all of that. It's not like any of it hasn't been addressed here before. However, I'm not the one trying to make the argument on "did the South America factor change" between Rio's first two bids & their third one when they ultimately won.

And I'm sure a multi-sport experience would help Durban's cause. But at the same time, I think some on here make too much of that aspect at times. It's not like Seoul, Barcelona & Atlanta hosted one of those before they got *elected* to host the Olympics. And it's also not like some cities that have hosted such things would be catapulted to the front of the line of hosting the Olympics, like Perth, the Gold Coast, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Cardiff, Kingston, Santo Domingo or Indianapolis for example. Far from it.

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