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Projected medal standings for 2016


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Italian expert predicts that US will top medal charts in Rio, even surpassing China...

http://www.insidethegames.biz/olympics/summer-olympics/2016/1023437-us-to-top-medals-table-at-rio-2016-ahead-of-china-and-russia-projection-claims

United States will finish ahead of China once again on the Rio 2016 Olympic medals table, with Russia in third followed by France, Germany and Great Britain, according to a projection by Italian expert Luciano Barra.

Using a formula based on World Championship results during the current Olympic cycle, Barra, who has reputation as an accurate "projector" of Olympic results, believes the US will win 88 medals,16 less than they managed at London 2012.

But, with 35 golds, they would finish three ahead of China, who would win 80 medals, while Russia would return to third place on the table after being pipped by Britain at London 2012.

Russia would manage 88 medals of which 28 would be gold.

Other projected high achievers are France and Germany, with 19 and 18 golds respectively, while Britain would win 12, well less than half of the 29 they managed in the last Games and would see them fail to achieve their target of doing better at Rio 2016 than they did at London 2012.

Australia would rise to seventh, but only with nine golds, while 2020 Olympic hosts Japan, South Korea, and surprise package New Zealand would complete the top 10.

In a list in which only the top 30 are included, host nation Brazil would finish 17th, with five golds in a total haul of 23, with Kenya the leading African nation one place behind.
Edited by baron-pierreIV
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I find Totallympic is very useful in the lead up to the Olympics to follow the complicated qualification process of all the sports...not sure how I would follow it otherwise...

Oh OK. Then they must've gotten their act together. Other than FS and Volleyball, I don't really follow world champs and all that...

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I'd be amazed if NZ finished in 10th. London was an abberation due to it's similar climate to NZ. The rowing will still do well and cycling a medal or two but the gold tally is expected to be lower. But a rise in silver and bronze.

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It's based solely on the latest world championships results in each sport. Brazil will have at least 10 golds with the home advantage.

Doubtful. Brazil, without a major sports investment system, will likely follow Greece's path from 2000 to 2004, not Britain's from 2008 to 2012. Brazil will probably win 3 to 6 gold and 18 to 24 medals if you look at the general bump hosts get. I cannot imagine Brazil making that huge of a leap and be in the same realm as countries like Germany, France and Korea just because they are the host.

Edited by Faster
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Brazil is making great grounds in swimming- lots of medals there.

The host factor works both ways too- it can be a great boost, but others freeze and choke with home pressure.

Yea Brazil have always produced good swimmers. And currently they've been improving tremendously in men's gymnastics. This past world championships in Nanning the men took won 2 medals, a bronze in floor exercise and a silver in rings. The year before the same one who won a silver in rings this year won the gold last year. They are capable of gaining individual medals, but as a team they've got a lot to improve on.

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Ok, it's 25m swimming pool, but still...

Doha 2014 FINA World Swimming Championships (25 m)

Final medal summary

Rank Nation Gold Silver Bronze Total

1 Brazil 7 1 2 10

2 Hungary 6 3 2 11

3 Netherlands 5 1 6 12

Not bad, right?

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Ok, it's 25m swimming pool, but still...

Doha 2014 FINA World Swimming Championships (25 m)

Final medal summary

Rank Nation Gold Silver Bronze Total

1 Brazil 7 1 2 10

2 Hungary 6 3 2 11

3 Netherlands 5 1 6 12

Not bad, right?

That pretty much means they have more advantage in the jump and the push off part of the event than the actual swimming part, but also most of the big names in swimming don't even compete in the 25m competition. I know Ryan Lochte did a few times, and I think even Michael Phelps.

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^^As I said, it's not THE major World Championship,and it's not even the same size of swimming pool used for Olympics, still, the progress is undeniable. Brazil never got 1st in medal standings for this kind of competition...

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As usual, Brazil will have great chances in:

- Volleyball

- Football

- Judo

- Sailing

- Swimming

Heve some chances in: gymnastics, athletics and women's handball.

With the surprises, approximately 30 medals (6 or 7 golds).

I remember in Barcelona or in Seoul, Brazil was happy to have one or two medals...

The progress of Brazilian athletes and sport is slow but consistent...

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I remember in Barcelona or in Seoul, Brazil was happy to have one or two medals...

The progress of Brazilian athletes and sport is slow but consistent...

And that's a good sign for Rio, Danny.

I'm old enough to remember the dark days of the 70s and then the 80s, when two or three golds was cause for national joy.

These days if we don't get double figures and get beaten by the Brits in the table, and it's cause for media and political debate. Good times! ;)

That's what Brazil should be aiming for. If Rio can help raise Brazil's future expectations and aspirations to that kind of level, it'll have been a great success.

Edited by Sir Rols
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And that's a good sign for Rio, Danny.

I'm old enough to remember the dark days of the 70s and then the 80s, when two or three golds was cause for national joy.

These days if we don't get double figures and get beaten by the Brits in the table, and it's cause for media and political debate. Good times! ;)

That's what Brazil should be aiming for. If Rio can help raise Brazil's future expectations and aspirations to that kind of level, it'll have been a great success.

Here in Brazil the same... When Brazil got a gold in Judo in Barcelona, it was reason for several weeks of joy in the media... Now, people demanding more results, specially because big money was placed in sports in the last 2 decades.

About comparisions, I don't think rivalry will play some role for it in Brazilian case... Our biggest rivals, Argentines, are far behind us in terms of Olympic medals (they even managed to stay 52 years without winning a single gold), still, it seems that to be top-10 in medal count is the goal Brazilian NOC is pursuiting.

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Here in Brazil the same... When Brazil got a gold in Judo in Barcelona, it was reason for several weeks of joy in the media... Now, people demanding more results, specially because big money was placed in sports in the last 2 decades.

About comparisions, I don't think rivalry will play some role for it in Brazilian case... Our biggest rivals, Argentines, are far behind us in terms of Olympic medals (they even managed to stay 52 years without winning a single gold), still, it seems that to be top-10 in medal count is the goal Brazilian NOC is pursuiting.

Danny, we can't possibly compete with you at the olympics. You have 4x our population. It would be like Canada wanting to surpass the US, it just will never happen no matter how much Canada improves.

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