mr.bernham Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 Big if. Not really, Berlin will unveil their bid in two days and public support for Hamburg is very high. I would say that a German bid is very close to happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 Not really, Berlin will unveil their bid in two days and public support for Hamburg is very high. I would say that a German bid is very close to happening. That's not the only part of the "if." Of course, they could bid. Probably will. You also wrote "and is strong." That's the bigger "if." Will it be a compelling bid that not only has public support and gets the IOC excited? It's far too soon to say with any degree of confidence. The Germans will have to do more than throw their hat in the ring to win. I think they are beatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 That's not the only part of the "if." Of course, they could bid. Probably will. You also wrote "and is strong." That's the bigger "if." Will it be a compelling bid that not only has public support and gets the IOC excited? It's far too soon to say with any degree of confidence. The Germans will have to do more than throw their hat in the ring to win. I think they are beatable. Given that support in Hamburg is 72% and Berlin 52% I think that once full plan for both cities are released (plans I think will be strong) Germany will be on the right track to bidding. Then again there are a lot of "if's" but what bid does not have them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 Given that support in Hamburg is 72% and Berlin 52% I think that once full plan for both cities are released (plans I think will be strong) Germany will be on the right track to bidding. Then again there are a lot of "if's" but what bid does not have them? You are the one who tried to erase the "ifs" by proclaiming that if Germany bids the IOC will go to Europe in 2024. I'm just pointing out the assumptions inherent in that prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 You are the one who tried to erase the "ifs" by proclaiming that if Germany bids the IOC will go to Europe in 2024. I'm just pointing out the assumptions inherent in that prediction. I was supporting the "ifs" with evidence of public support. Germany's biggest hurdles will be public support and judging on early numbers public support is very high. One could assume that this is a good sign that a Germany bid is a very real possibility. One could go further and say that based on the IOC's image in Europe that any strong European bid with good public support will likely win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 I was supporting the "ifs" with evidence of public support. Germany's biggest hurdles will be public support and judging on early numbers public support is very high. One could assume that this is a good sign that a Germany bid is a very real possibility. One could go further and say that based on the IOC's image in Europe that any strong European bid with good public support will likely win. So as long as a European bid has adequate public support it's guaranteed victory in 2024? No. There will be more to the race than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 So as long as a European bid has adequate public support it's guaranteed victory in 2024? No. There will be more to the race than that. If you would have looked at my post you would have know that I said, "...any strong European bid bid with good public support will likely win." The bid itself has to be strong, but public support must be high as well. The IOC has rejected the US more then once and there is no doubt in my mind they would do it again to bring the games to Europe. The IOC is not a dumb bunch, they know that the only way to get more European cities to bid is to not only make visible changes, but also to give the games to countries that will host responsibly. If that particular country can also be one from Europe then I think the IOC would have no hesitation awarding them the games. As far as we can see a German bid may be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phandrosis Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 Don't forget that this is the Oslo thread. There's another one for a Germany 2024 bid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Usa2024olympics Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 I can't see Hamburg beating a US bid (likely LA at this time). Although I can see Berlin beating LA, but IMO a German bid just doesn't really appeal to me as others have said. Sorry for off topic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 If you would have looked at my post you would have know that I said, "...any strong European bid bid with good public support will likely win." The bid itself has to be strong, but public support must be high as well. The IOC has rejected the US more then once and there is no doubt in my mind they would do it again to bring the games to Europe. The IOC is not a dumb bunch, they know that the only way to get more European cities to bid is to not only make visible changes, but also to give the games to countries that will host responsibly. If that particular country can also be one from Europe then I think the IOC would have no hesitation awarding them the games. As far as we can see a German bid may be that. I did read your post. It's ill-considered. You are saying Europe will trump all for 2024. There's no way that can be known at this point. None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 As for Oslo 2022 , it's because of them that we 're having this conversation. If Europe hosted 2022, there would be slightly less impetus for Europe to get 2024. At this point, I will be very surprised if Oslo makes it to the final ballot. There's not much else to discuss about the bid. It's withdrawal, however could impact the rest of the Olympic landscape. Bernham seems to think this means the IOC will jump at the first halfway decent European bid that comes their way. I'm not at all convinced of that. Yes, Europe could end up hosting 2024. But it's very far from a foregone conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanMUC Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 Let me just add one thing, being German: The opinion polls seem favourable at the moment, but by the time the actual referendums may happen, this could well change, once the NO camp gets going, which isn't really the case yet. Berlin seems particularly critical in this respect. And what use would a publicly supported Hamburg bid be when it's up against LA or Paris? I'm not yet convinced there'll be a German bid for 2024, and even if it happens, it's hardly a fave, no matter which city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 As for Oslo 2022 , it's because of them that we 're having this conversation. If Europe hosted 2022, there would be slightly less impetus for Europe to get 2024. At this point, I will be very surprised if Oslo makes it to the final ballot. There's not much else to discuss about the bid. It's withdrawal, however could impact the rest of the Olympic landscape. Bernham seems to think this means the IOC will jump at the first halfway decent European bid that comes their way. I'm not at all convinced of that. Yes, Europe could end up hosting 2024. But it's very far from a foregone conclusion. No, I think the IOC will jump on to a strong European bid with good public support. Not some half arsed bid. Let me just add one thing, being German: The opinion polls seem favourable at the moment, but by the time the actual referendums may happen, this could well change, once the NO camp gets going, which isn't really the case yet. Berlin seems particularly critical in this respect. And what use would a publicly supported Hamburg bid be when it's up against LA or Paris? I'm not yet convinced there'll be a German bid for 2024, and even if it happens, it's hardly a fave, no matter which city. As an outsider looking in and a disappointed backer of the Munich bid, I would have to agree. Although, I have been impressed with Berlin's (and Hamburg's to a lesser extent) interaction with the public. We saw a few weeks back when Berlin and Hamburg both asked the citizens what they would like to see if their city bid. To me this shows signs that each city wants to develop a plan that offers what the people want. However, Munich showed us that the NO camp can be very powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 No, I think the IOC will jump on to a strong European bid with good public support. Not some half arsed bid. As an outsider looking in and a disappointed backer of the Munich bid, I would have to agree. Although, I have been impressed with Berlin's (and Hamburg's to a lesser extent) interaction with the public. Who's talking about a "half arsed bid?" You seem convinced that any German bid with acceptable support will waltz to victory. And what's with the British spelling of "arse?" What has so "impressed" you about Berlin and Hamburg's "interaction with the public?" Almost nothing has happened yet. Silliness. And the doublespeak is tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 Who's talking about a "half arsed bid?" You seem convinced that any German bid with acceptable support will waltz to victory. And what's with the British spelling of "arse?" What has so "impressed" you about Berlin and Hamburg's "interaction with the public?" Almost nothing has happened yet. Silliness. And the doublespeak is tiresome. Well then you must not have been reading the German thread. A few weeks ago Berlin and Hamburg both had online surveys asking the public's opinion on the games and asked what they would like to see in a bid. You are talking about a half arsed bid, "...Bernham seems to think this means the IOC will jump at the first halfway decent European bid that comes their way." Halfway decent can also be said as a half assed or arsed bid. This is not what I think, I have said numerous times that the bid itself must be strong. I am convinced that a German bid will be a strong bid and hope that the public support will be high. I think that this will lead to a German victory. However, the same could happen to another European city with a very strong bid, but at the moment Germany appears to be the only interested European nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 Well then you must not have been reading the German thread. A few weeks ago Berlin and Hamburg both had online surveys asking the public's opinion on the games and asked what they would like to see in a bid. You are talking about a half arsed bid, "...Bernham seems to think this means the IOC will jump at the first halfway decent European bid that comes their way." Halfway decent can also be said as a half assed or arsed bid. This is not what I think, I have said numerous times that the bid itself must be strong. I am convinced that a German bid will be a strong bid and hope that the public support will be high. I think that this will lead to a German victory. However, the same could happen to another European city with a very strong bid, but at the moment Germany appears to be the only interested European nation. You're so obnoxious. Of course I've been reading the threads. They had a survey. You're impressed by that? Get real! I never once mention a "half arsed bid" so I think it's you who need to work on your reading comprehension. "Halfway decent" does not mean "half arsed" and it was in response to some garbage you wrote about the IOC going to Europe in 2024 as long as there was acceptable support (you mentioned no other criteria at all). In fact, I've said clearly that I expect the Germans to present a highly competent bid, assuming they get that far. I've also said I think they're beatable. That doesn't translate to "half-arsed" any way you slice it. And the pseudo-British airs are just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 You're so obnoxious. Of course I've been reading the threads. They had a survey. You're impressed by that? Get real! I never once mention a "half arsed bid" so I think it's you who need to work on your reading comprehension. "Halfway decent" does not mean "half arsed" and it was in response to some garbage you wrote about the IOC going to Europe in 2024 as long as there was acceptable support (you mentioned no other criteria at all). In fact, I've said clearly that I expect the Germans to present a highly competent bid, assuming they get that far. I've also said I think they're beatable. That doesn't translate to "half-arsed" any way you slice it. And the pseudo-British airs are just ridiculous. Well a survey is a lot more then what American cities have done. It is nice to see the Germans looking at the results of Munich's referendum and trying to make Berlin and Hamburgs bids much more in touch with public wants and opinions. On multiple occasions in this thread I mentioned that the bid itself must be strong and public support good (not acceptable). With three Asian games in a row it is obvious the IOC will be begging to go to the west and while any bid can be beat, I see Europe being favored. I do not think that you think a German bid will be halfway decent, I am defending myself from your accusation that I think the IO would welcome any European bid that walked their way. Not everyone here thinks the LA bid is the best bid to ever come out of the US. Not everyone here thinks LA will win, especially when they have never won a bid race with legitimate competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob2012 Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 Mr B, what specifically do you think a public survey could yield that would materially change a bid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 Mr B, what specifically do you think a public survey could yield that would materially change a bid? I think that a public survey tells the bid organizers what the public wants. In a sense it is a direct way to get public input on how the organizers should market, approach, and create the bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob2012 Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 I know what a survey is for, I asked what results you think it would yield that could materially affect a bid. The IOC's own requirements are very definite and a city has to meet those as best it can, and that's hard for even the largest cities. The things people get worked up about (costs, new developments etc) are unavoidable and it's not like there's hundreds of different ways of doing things in any given city. I suppose surveys at least give the impression of engagement from above, but I find it hard to see how much difference they'd actually make to the real substance of a bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 I know what a survey is for, I asked what results you think it would yield that could materially affect a bid. The IOC's own requirements are very definite and a city has to meet those as best it can, and that's hard for even the largest cities. The things people get worked up about (costs, new developments etc) are unavoidable and it's not like there's hundreds of different ways of doing things in any given city. I suppose surveys at least give the impression of engagement from above, but I find it hard to see how much difference they'd actually make to the real substance of a bid. The results for Berlin appeard to convince the Berlin committee to fit the games to the city. They will be using 15 existing venues and redeveloping Tegel Airport into the Athletes village in order to create more community and residential centers. Additionally the survey showed that Berliners want the games to be affordable and legacy minded. After reading (what I could of it) their proposal takes all of these things into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 Well a survey is a lot more then what American cities have done. It is nice to see the Germans looking at the results of Munich's referendum and trying to make Berlin and Hamburgs bids much more in touch with public wants and opinions. On multiple occasions in this thread I mentioned that the bid itself must be strong and public support good (not acceptable). With three Asian games in a row it is obvious the IOC will be begging to go to the west and while any bid can be beat, I see Europe being favored. I do not think that you think a German bid will be halfway decent, I am defending myself from your accusation that I think the IO would welcome any European bid that walked their way. Not everyone here thinks the LA bid is the best bid to ever come out of the US. Not everyone here thinks LA will win, especially when they have never won a bid race with legitimate competition. Bernham, I couldn't care less what you think of LA. The American process is DIFFERENT. Did the Germans start their evaluation process years ago? Did they begin with 35 cities? No. But who cares? A survey is an incredibly easy thing to conduct and they happen constantly. There's nothing remotely "impressive" about it. For all we know the American contenders may have already conducted surveys of their own. Just because it isn't made public doesn't mean it isn't happening. I don't care what bid you support. It does rankle me when you make ill-considered declarations based on what one might charitably term a very spotty understanding of facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikarus360 Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 I had a lot of hopes for Oslo, but it seems that's not going to happen. A huge shame that the games are going to happen again in a country with a very dubious reputation when it comes to human rights. And to be honest i've started to lose a lot of respect I had for the games. The brash truth is that they've became an event for the elite and the rich only, and the olympic ideal and all of that crap doesn't mean nothing. Aw well. Time to support Almaty, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Aw well. Time to support Almaty, then. Yeah, because Kazakstan doesn't have a dubious reputation when it comes to human rights. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikarus360 Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 ^^ Neither does China. We're pretty much being forced to choose between Cancer and AIDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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