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IOC To Shortlist 2022 Olympic Winter Games Candidates Monday - What to Expect

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By December it will be very likely that it will be an 2 way race between Almaty Kazakhstan and Beijing China which Beijing China will be an high cost games and Almaty Kazakhstan an low cost games, I think the IOC will go to to Almaty Kazakhstan to keep the cost down and have an high cost games with Harbin 8 years later to keep the interest for Europe to bid again an Beijing China 2022 games will likely to keep Europe away for an while.

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Even with the very low public support figures, Oslo 2022 is still very far ahead of the game here. If most of the people of Norway don't care about their 'score', I think it's quite clear that the IOC does. They must vigorously be working around the clock to keep Oslo in the race & doing everything that they can to try & convince the Norwegians that this is still a worthwhile effort for them.

If it has to take nearly EVERY bid to be outta the picture for Almaty to start looking attractive, how "attractive" of a bid was/is it in the first place. It's like "last call" out at the bars, when all the desirables have left the building, & all you're left with is the unwanted left-overs. But hey, they'd still serve their purpose, I suppose.

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Beijing China will be an high cost games and Almaty Kazakhstan an low cost games, I think the IOC will go to to Almaty Kazakhstan to keep the cost down and have an high cost games

1. There's no reason to expect Almaty to be so much cheaper than Almaty

2. Even if there were, you notice that nowhere in the review criteria does "can host the games cheap" appear.

3. Even if there were, there is no way the games are going to Kazakhstan as long as there are better countries out there.

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With the shocking support for Oslo Norway just 36% I don;t think the people of Norway will care less about the score they clearly don't want the games and an one governing party is against the the bid, All but 1 Youth divisions of Political Parties are against the bid this is an slow and painful death for Oslo 2022 bid, Norway people is not like Japan people were the government was pushing for the 2020 bid in Japan and Japanese are respectful of the governments policy unlike in Norway where is an private group pushing for the bid.

Its way too soon for Norway to host again and they are hosting the 2016 Youth Winter Games leave it for another Generation or 2 then to host another Winter Games is the best way that an Norway winter Olympics Games happen again. So this race is between Almaty Kazakhstan and Beijing China for the 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games.

By December it will be very likely that it will be an 2 way race between Almaty Kazakhstan and Beijing China which Beijing China will be an high cost games and Almaty Kazakhstan an low cost games, I think the IOC will go to to Almaty Kazakhstan to keep the cost down and have an high cost games with Harbin 8 years later to keep the interest for Europe to bid again an Beijing China 2022 games will likely to keep Europe away for an while.

Just keep telling yourself that. Ignore all the negatives against Almaty and harp on the 1 negative for Oslo. The IOC isn't going to be thinking about what may happen 8 years down the line. Right now, for this vote, their only concern should be for 2022. Can't use the "too soon" argument here is Oslo is a good bid and the competition sucks. Ask Atlanta how that worked out for them back in 1990. Yes, the Norway government is an issue, but they're still in it and at this point, I don't think they're going to drop out.

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I'm still willing to say the IOC will give it to Oslo even without rising support or a solid govt guarantee, just as long as they stay in the race.

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Well gee, who would have guessed that Almaty would be so underwhelming.

remember that? :lol:

cy9L5Cc.png

I'm still willing to say the IOC will give it to Oslo even without rising support or a solid govt guarantee, just as long as they stay in the race.

Sounds like another Denver'76 to me... :(

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remember that? :lol:

cy9L5Cc.png

Yeah, it makes those around the rings preliminary "ratings" (along with the people that used them as sacred) seem literally laughable now, don't it.

Sounds like another Denver'76 to me... :(

I tend to agree. I think that the IOC would at least want the Norwegian government guarantees. Then it's absolutely there's. Otherwise, Beijing 2022 here we come.

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I'm still willing to say the IOC will give it to Oslo even without rising support or a solid govt guarantee, just as long as they stay in the race.

Which would be worse for the IOC: a repeat of Denver 1976 or a dictatorial Olympics in Kazakhstan? I'm not sure.

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Which would be worse for the IOC: a repeat of Denver 1976 or a dictatorial Olympics in Kazakhstan? I'm not sure.

Well, either event would result with a dictatorial Olympics in the end. So there on the same level pretty much.

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By December it will be very likely that it will be an 2 way race between Almaty Kazakhstan and Beijing China which Beijing China will be an high cost games and Almaty Kazakhstan an low cost games, I think the IOC will go to to Almaty Kazakhstan to keep the cost down and have an high cost games with Harbin 8 years later to keep the interest for Europe to bid again an Beijing China 2022 games will likely to keep Europe away for an while.

What makes you think Almaty won't attempt to top Beijing's shower of money?

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Almaty seems to be the weakest shortlisted bid since introducing the new rules after SLC scandal. Annecy 2018 looks like a wonderful candidate compared to this.

Sure, Almaty met the benchmark this time, but I made a comparison between their 2014 and 2022 bids:

9bY8ooU.png

They improved their results in some categories, while reducing the notes in the categories where they had been actually rated quite well in 2006 :blink:

Transport concept, safety and security, finance, all of those marks decreased. Olympic villages concept is the same as in 2014 bid, but this time they got worse

rates?
Do the the IOC Working Group actually know what they're doing? :)

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Do the the IOC Working Group actually know what they're doing? :)

Like I said earlier, this just further illustrates that the short-list is much more than merely 'technical merit', as was the initial arguement when the process was first introduced back in 1995 for the 2002 Winter Games.

Clearly, Almaty doesn't seem like a place where the IOC is interested in going. Otherwise, they would gloss over their weaknesses, & catapult their positives, like they did with Rio & Beijing.

This race is almost like 2020 now. With Oslo clearly being the Tokyo, while Beijing & Almaty could easily be interchangeable with Madrid & Istanbul, depending on how one wants to look at it.

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How has the safety and security gone down in Almaty? Curious to know why they view that. And how is the environment worse in Almaty than in Beijing which is probably known as having the worst air pollution in the world. It's a cop out saying they have policies in place to reduce it, said the same thing for 2008 and they ended up doing **** all.

Also noticed they mentioned Almaty was on a fault line yet failed to mention china and their earthquake activity. Anyone remember Sichuan earthquake 2008? 80000 dead? Tremors felt in Beijing? Apparently the IOC has forgotten about that.

And the finance and marketing section, another cop out. Beijing rated higher? The country that blew 30 billion on 2008? Almaty has more venues prepared for the games.

Big suck up for Beijing.

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I'm still willing to say the IOC will give it to Oslo even without rising support or a solid govt guarantee, just as long as they stay in the race.

That would be pretty insane, tbh.

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Like I said earlier, this just further illustrates that the short-list is much more than merely 'technical merit', as was the initial arguement when the process was first introduced back in 1995 for the 2002 Winter Games.

Clearly, Almaty doesn't seem like a place where the IOC is interested in going. Otherwise, they would gloss over their weaknesses, & catapult their positives, like they did with Rio & Beijing.

This race is almost like 2020 now. With Oslo clearly being the Tokyo, while Beijing & Almaty could easily be interchangeable with Madrid & Istanbul, depending on how one wants to look at it.

Definitely agree. Clearly they aren't interested in Almaty, they've pushed Beijing up and beyond Almaty in case Oslo does pull out so it doesn't look like they were left with two mediocre bids. It went from Almaty and Beijing being neck and neck to Almaty being dragged behind.

Well good luck for Beijing if Oslo pulls out!

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And how is the environment worse in Almaty than in Beijing which is probably known as having the worst air pollution in the world. It's a cop out saying they have policies in place to reduce it, said the same thing for 2008 and they ended up doing **** all.

Big suck up for Beijing.

Well, is it really that much of a surprise. It's China. You know, that up & coming global superpower. Yet when someone would try & point that out, you got very ornery & that it's merely a simplistic excuse. It's simple politics is what it is, really.

And the finance and marketing section, another cop out. Beijing rated higher? The country that blew 30 billion on 2008? Almaty has more venues prepared for the games.

Actually, it was 44 Billion. But this one isn't that much of a surprise either. 1.5 Billion people by 2022 obviously presents fiscal opportunity for the first Winter Games in the most populous nation on earth. And obviously China has the financial means to take on the 2022 Games, venues or no venues, like they did with 2008. That's why they're rated so high in those categories.

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Definitely agree. Clearly they aren't interested in Almaty, they've pushed Beijing up and beyond Almaty in case Oslo does pull out so it doesn't look like they were left with two mediocre bids. It went from Almaty and Beijing being neck and neck to Almaty being dragged behind.

Well good luck for Beijing if Oslo pulls out!

Agreed. It's very clear that if Oslo withdraws, Beijing will host.

I am surprised by Almaty's marks. I have to wonder if there was a bit of Rio/Chicago evaluation report wrangling at work. I really don't particularly like Almaty, but I don't think they are that far behind Beijing.

The reality is that politically-speaking I don't think the IOC feels free to bypass China in favor of Kazakhstan. And that's probably prudent. I suspect the reality is that it's six one, half dozen the other. Might as well choose the option that will rock the boat less.

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Yeah, but we all know that once the short list is out, the scores matter less than how the bidders are perceived to be addressing them.

In the, regrettable, event of it going down to two bidders, I'd still give Almaty the slight edge out of two unpalatable options. I think the Mod's "All Roads Lead to Almaty" news item is closer to the reality on the ground than a simplistic ranking of the scores.

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Yeah, but we all know that once the short list is out, the scores matter less than how the bidders are perceived to be addressing them.

In the, regrettable, event of it going down to two bidders, I'd still give Almaty the slight edge out of two unpalatable options. I think the Mod's "All Roads Lead to Almaty" news item is closer to the reality on the ground than a simplistic ranking of the scores.

Hm. That surprises me.

The main thing Almaty has going for it at this point is that it hasn't hosted before and that it's slightly farther west than China. That's pretty much it. They can't claim any other strength. I expected a stronger technical evaluation and they didn't get it.

Up until this report came out, I felt a two-horse race between Almaty and Beijing could go either way. The report, however, seems definitive enough (possibly thanks to some artificial manipulation) that I seriously doubt the IOC would brush past the Chinese to go to Kazakhstan.

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Felli mentioning that they have "excellent raw material, but behind (competition) in understanding the concept" also doesn't sound very encouraging.

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