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Oslo 2022 Olympic Bid Shouldn't Be Approved - New Poll

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Athens: "Home" of the Olympics.

South Korea: never hosted a Winter Olympics (& first Winter Olympics in mainland Asia) & they easily have the money to put on the show.

I've said all along, krakow could still be a darkhorse in this, but I've yet to be surely convinced on that. Just have to wait for the bid books to see what they propose.

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I just find it extremely naive, & moreso bias in your case, to dismiss the Norwegians as "been there, done that", considering all the variables. With the danger of Oslo pulling out now, the IOC will take them very seriously if they stay in, & if they don't want to see the trend of caliber cities running away to continue. Oslo 2022 is the most practical of them all.

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What is Norway?

Norway pretty much *is* the Winter Games. Most medals, huge stars. It's not just a country of 5 million. It's a country of 5 million of the biggest winter olympic sports fans on the planet.

If they don't want the games, it's a very. big. deal.

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. Oslo 2022 is the most practical of them all.

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Maybe so; but I think equally good bids --EVEN if they are newer -- should also be given a chance, if they want to have a fresh supply of future bidders. Oslo can always be the "old standby" as LA, as we know, is the IOC's standby summer city in case a SOG falls through.

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Also, be careful where the population argument leads to because then someone is going to offer up the GDP argument. As it turns out, the GDP of Norway and Poland are pretty darn close to each other. So if you're talking about buying Olympic-related goods and merchandise, Norway has as much to spend as Poland does, but their per capita GDP is obviously a lot higher (among the highest in the world, in fact). So I don't know how much the population argument helps Poland in this case.

Yes, Norway has as much to spend as Poland does, but market saturation could be significant here. Theoretically speaking, if every Polish citizen buy at least one olympic-related good, it'll be potentially 40 mln purchases. To get to that point, every Norwegian should buy about 8 of those goods. They obviously have money to spend, but why on earth should they buy so many of that?

And it's probably easier to feed olympic-related goods to the country where majority of people actually supported the bid, than to the country that looks like floating away (at least based on that poll).

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Maybe so; but I think equally good bids --EVEN if they are newer -- should also be given a chance, if they want to have a fresh supply of future bidders. Oslo can always be the "old standby" as LA, as we know, is the IOC's standby summer city in case a SOG falls through.

This is not really about "equally good bids" or not. It is at least debatable whether any of the others would come close to Oslo at all in terms of technical merit etc.

However, if Norway as the motherland of skiing with all of its huge successes doesn't manage to get its people to support a bid, who else really will (out of own volition, not because their autocrat leader tells them to)?

Really, Oslo withdrawing would just be the icing on the HUGE cake baked from the Swiss, German and Swedish withdrawals. Any 2022 winner would have to live with the tag "only won because nobody of the suitable ones wanted it".

Why are you so bullishly denying Oslo's chances? I really don't get that kind of irrational argumentation.

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Yes, Norway has as much to spend as Poland does, but market saturation could be significant here.

The same can be said of Japan's 123 million severely saturated market. But that's what the IOC chose instead of a virgin market of 77 million.

And it's probably easier to feed olympic-related goods to the country where majority of people actually supported the bid, than to the country that looks like floating away (at least based on that poll).

Tokyo 2020's early polls also indicated very low support. But in the end, most of the Japanese were on board. Granted, it still could be a tough sell for Norwegians, but it's still to early for such definite numbers.

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China I think has a legitimate shot to win now if Oslo withdraws. China is 2020's Tokyo. Krakow is Istanbul. We shall see

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Yes, Norway has as much to spend as Poland does, but market saturation could be significant here. Theoretically speaking, if every Polish citizen buy at least one olympic-related good, it'll be potentially 40 mln purchases. To get to that point, every Norwegian should buy about 8 of those goods. They obviously have money to spend, but why on earth should they buy so many of that?

And it's probably easier to feed olympic-related goods to the country where majority of people actually supported the bid, than to the country that looks like floating away (at least based on that poll).

2 things to keep in mind here..

1) The results of the poll are not that Norway doesn't support the Olympics. It's that they don't support the financial guarantee involved in backing them. If Oslo were to get the Olympics, I have no doubt the population would back them in full force just like they did back in 1994.

2) If you're going to make the population argument, then yes, Norweigans per capita need to purchase 5-6 times what the Poles would to make it even. I think they're up to that challenge. I forget the number, but in `94, didn't they get an insane number of ticket requests for the men's cross-country relay? And that's relative to a country of any size. Think about all the venues that would no doubt be filled with Norweigan fans cheering on their athletes.. speed skating, cross-country/biathlon, ski jumping, alpine, curling. All those sports are where Norway has traditionally done well. I know Poland has a higher population, but it's not like Norway would have that much trouble selling tickets and souvenirs and other Olympic-related items.

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And I've just called the eventual winner early; why blame me if the cards are going to fall that way anyway and eventually?? B)

We're not blaming you.. we're trying to have a discussion on the merits of these games. You placed your bet already. That's fine and maybe you'll wind up being right. But I don't think it's as cut and dry and you seem to think, especially with for the reasons you've stated. If your opinion is that strong in favor of the Krakow bid, but if your support of that is that Oslo is some old tired nabe that the IOC will have no interest in, don't blame the rest of us if we disagree with that and can present a counter-argument or 2 of our own. You say that maybe newer cities/countries wouldn't line up to bid if they didn't get picked?.. well boo-hoo for no Baku. Doha would be over. I think what Athens said earlier is spot on though. If the IOC loses Stockholm and Oslo out of the same race due to funding concerns, that definitely needs to be a wake-up call. I know a couple of people have framed Stockholm's departure as being about them coming to the realization over the distance issue. I can see that argument, even though I don't think it's that accurate. But with Oslo, if they were to drop out, I can't see it being about them getting cold feet about their chances.

The IOC had 2 cities in the 2020 race that had never hosted an Olympics before and 1 city that did. And it was the city that had hosted an Olympics that won that race. Krakow 2022 is far from a done deal. It wouldn't surprise me if they won. I think they would put on a great show, but I think it's foolish to discount Norway simply because you've hitched your wagon to Poland's bid already.

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Having read that article more closely, I don't believe that poll is representative of the population, and I don't believe Oslo will withdraw. A poll done for the Minerva magazine, which is already against using state funds for the Olympics? Ill believe it when I see it. The IOC will make sure through Heiberg that doesn't happen.

Oslo is still the favourite.

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Having read that article more closely, I don't believe that poll is representative of the population, and I don't believe Oslo will withdraw. A poll done for the Minerva magazine, which is already against using state funds for the Olympics? Ill believe it when I see it. The IOC will make sure through Heiberg that doesn't happen.

Oslo is still the favourite.

Exactly, has anyone actually read the article? Oslo isn't in danger and isn't going to pull out. if it does it won't be because of one poll done for a magazine.

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Even with it in the race, I'm not totally behind Oslo. I'm sure it would be magical and rada, rada, ra... but its safe and boring. But perhaps that would work well after the equally safe Tokyo.

At this point the 2022 race is already more interesting than 2020.

At this point I'm rooting for Beijing, Krakow and Almaty. The former would make an interesting precedence in terms of first summer-winter and an Asian trifecta, but there has to be a first. Plus, I know others disagree, but Beijing would be far more sustainable than Sochi or even PC, as it would be utilising existing venues within Beijing.

Like Beijing with PC, Almaty and Krakow might be too similarish to Sochi - but at this point, who cares. They're all interesting.

Maybe this is how it is meant to be - the Olympics are retreating from the poor Western nations for a little bit while we get our sh!t together.

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2022 will NOT go to Beijing. The IOC wasn't totally crazy about the way Beijing handled 2008:

- they were too dictatorial;

- they submitted one of the most amateurish Official Reports; and wore the IOC down on that subject.

- Despite written agmts that no other major sports festival would take place in Beijing in the 6 months leading up to and after the Games, the PRC still staged a giant Wushu championships shortly after the regular Games that had a lot of the Official accoutrements of the regular Games.

I wouldn't take this Chinese 2022 bid too seriously. I know the IOC won't.

Edited by baron-pierreIV

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I wouldn't take this Chinese 2022 bid too seriously. I know the IOC won't.

Not unless they have no other choice but to, at the rate this race is shaping up. Or better put, shaping down.

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Beggars can't be choosers.

I agree there is a lot wrong with a Chinese bid in terms of human rights, and all the other issues raised with 2008. However, if the IOC is confronted with a situation of having to choose between Krakow, Almaty, et al... it would be narrow to dismiss Beijing as a no hoper. If they table a good bid, have a good story to tell, learn from 2008, and reassure the IOC with their concerns (event sustainability, etc. ) then I think they could very well nail it.

All these issues, like Wushu, etc. wouldn't come into it.

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2 things to keep in mind here..

1) The results of the poll are not that Norway doesn't support the Olympics. It's that they don't support the financial guarantee involved in backing them. If Oslo were to get the Olympics, I have no doubt the population would back them in full force just like they did back in 1994.

2) If you're going to make the population argument, then yes, Norweigans per capita need to purchase 5-6 times what the Poles would to make it even. I think they're up to that challenge. I forget the number, but in `94, didn't they get an insane number of ticket requests for the men's cross-country relay? And that's relative to a country of any size. Think about all the venues that would no doubt be filled with Norweigan fans cheering on their athletes.. speed skating, cross-country/biathlon, ski jumping, alpine, curling. All those sports are where Norway has traditionally done well. I know Poland has a higher population, but it's not like Norway would have that much trouble selling tickets and souvenirs and other Olympic-related items.

1)

"The results of the poll are not that Norway doesn't support the Olympics."

Of course not, the results of the poll are that they don't support that particular Oslo 2022 bid, because "they don't support the financial guarantee involved in backing them".

Oslo should just go ahead with that non-supported financial guaranteed bid, win the whole thing, and the Norwegian population would just magically change their mind and back them in full force? OK, why not...

2) What makes you think that 40mil-people country wouldn't beat that insane number of ticket sold in a 5mil-country? I know that Norway is more passionate about winter sport, but the Polish potencial is there, just waiting for a proper call. Norway has hard numbers behind them, because they hosted WOG twice, and they're up to Youth Winter Games in 2016.

"Think about all the venues that would no doubt be filled with Norweigan fans cheering on their athletes"

Think about all the venues that would no doubt be filled with Polish fans cheering not only on their athletes, but also foreign athlets. (you didn't suggest that Norwegians wouldn't be cheering only on Norwegian athlets, didn't you? :) )

- speed skating? the second most medal-awarded winter discipline scored by the Polish athletes

- cross-country/biathlon? Justyna Kowalczyk and Tomasz SIkora made it really popular in Poland, people watch it on the TV, so now they would have chance to see that olympic event live

- ski jumping? The third highest attendance in the whole ski jumping events history is Zakopane'62 FIS Nordic World Ski Championships. With WOG awarded to Krakow I think we might beat Holmenkollen'52 (and they weren't even close to that record from Ga-Pa 1936 WOG)

- alpine? Only venue in Slovakia? It'll be packed with Slovaks

- curling is the only one that I have some doubts about. But I think many people will go for the matches just out of pure curiosity, plus Cracovia Ice Rink (the proposed curling venue) belongs to the one of few Polish sport clubs that actually have a proper team and care about curling.

And don't you all forget about Czech Republic and Slovakia just behind the (non-existing)border. Both nations are well known for their love for winter sports (especially for ice hockey). Germany isn't also that far, and I can't see any reason why the foreigners from neighburing countries wouldn't buy those remaining tickets.

Even if there would be a shortage in ticket selling we all learned the lesson coming from FIFA World Cup 2002, didn't we? You just fill the venues with school students and teachers, awarded with free time, and having bought tickets for a half price.

I know Poland has a higher population, but it's not like Norway would have that much trouble selling tickets and souvenirs and other Olympic-related items.

I know they wouldn't have that much trouble, I'm not really on that higher-population point. It isn't really that supportive for a Krakow's bid anyway, Beijing is obviously winning here.

Any 2022 winner would have to live with the tag "only won because nobody of the suitable ones wanted it".

I was thinking the same way.

From a Krakow's perspective:

- being shortlisted, getting to the final voting round with Oslo, and finaly being awarded, would be a huge ennoblement, probably resulting in a bigger public support rate,

- being shortlisted with Beijing and Almaty, and winning is OK, but it's just... meeeh

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From a Krakow's perspective:

- being shortlisted, getting to the final voting round with Oslo, and finaly being awarded, would be a huge ennoblement, probably resulting in a bigger public support rate,

- being shortlisted with Beijing and Almaty, and winning is OK, but it's just... meeeh

Uhmmm...beggars can't be choosers. ;)

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Wow Oslo is the only frontrunner... The "safe, traditional choice" (I'm still digesting that my favorite Stockholm withdrew) If the drop of the race, it will be so unpredictable Maybe Krakow or Almaty.

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Wow Oslo is the only frontrunner...The "safe, traditional choice" (I'm still digesting that my favorite Stockholm withdrew)

Do you think that Stockholm was a safe, traditional choice? Stockholm bid required four venues being built from scratch, in a completelly flat area, some of them to be constructed on the artificially increased hills. Are venues are placed 600 km form Strockholm.

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Compared to the competition (other than Oslo), yeah Stockholm was the next safest choice, with the compelling narrative at that.


And compared how much of a Winter sports power Sweden is, yeah, traditional, too.

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Compared to the competition (other than Oslo), yeah Stockholm was the next safest choice,

Yep, as I said: "four venues being built from scratch, in a completelly flat area, some of them to be constructed on the artificially increased hills. Are venues are placed 600 km form Strockholm." The whole bid of course didn't have a government support.

Definitely sounds like a next safest choice to me.

with the compelling narrative at that.

Six failed WOG bids, three consecutive failed Östersund bids. What's the narrative behind that? "We failed so many times. We are winter sport nation. Gib the olympics, plox"?

Seriously? If I were a conspiracy theory fan, I would think that there's a huge anti-Swedish plot in the IOC organization.

And compared how much of a Winter sports power Sweden is, yeah, traditional, too

We just might have some different definition what "traditional" means, when it comes to the WOG hosting.

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Someone just posted this article in the Oslo 2022 thread. You really need to read it:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-11-14/sports/chi-iocs-2022-winter-olympic-choice-could-be-made-today-20131114_1_winter-olympics-winter-games-ioc

Obviously it's not just some of us here that hold that view.

How much work does Krakow have to do, btw. And why do they need to use Jasna, in another country, if they have everything up to speed.

And the narrative is that Sweden, a Winter Sports power that's never hosted the Winter Olympics before, much like Russia's plea with Sochi 2014. The failed bids have nothing to do with it, but they could've be in the background of some IOC members' mind come voting time.

And seriously, don't sound like Pillan here. There's no conspiracy plot against Sweden within the IOC. Most of Sweden's bids were ill-timed, TBH. The only one that really had the best shot at winning was 1994. Ostersund wasn't gonna win 1998 anyway when next door neighbor Lillehammer was hosting 1994. And 2002 was going to Salt Lake City anyway after just being in Europe & Asia previously. Even senior IOC member Dick Pound said as such.

And yes, you do have a different "definition" of traditional then. An extremely bias one, that is.


Look, I have nothing against Krakow here. I've said all along that they could be a darkhorse in this race, but it's really NOT a "slam-dunk" like a certain someone here likes to portray it.

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