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baron-pierreIV

Which 4 cities do u think will make the 2022 Short List?

Which will be the 2022 Finalist cities?  

116 members have voted

  1. 1. Pick 4 that u think will make the Short List.

    • Almaty
      77
    • Beijing-Yankeejoe
      68
    • Krakow-Jasna
      81
    • Lviv
      27
    • Oslo-Kvitjfell
      108
    • Stockholm-Are
      72


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When you have these two, I don't think the others have much of a chance. 31980-princess-madeleine-of-sweden-weddi

Edited by faster

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If the IOC was not willing to make a bi-national exception for Finland, they will not make it for Poland.

Finland was proposing their Alpine venue all the way in Norway, though. A distance of 600 miles is much less feasible than one that is less than 100 miles away, even if it is right across a border. The great distance was likely the main detriment moreso than having to deal with two countries that were both in the E.U. anyway. Not to mention that you also still had Sion & Turin on the table which were much better options TBW.

It just really depends on how much is being proposed on the Slovak side. If it's not that much, I don't see it being that much of an issue, much like Salzburg 2014 wasn't with a venue right across in Germany. What Krakow has to worry about are the two Scandinavian bids. Those are their main problem.

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Finland was proposing their Alpine venue all the way in Norway, though. A distance of 600 miles is much less feasible than one that is less than 100 miles away, even if it is right across a border. The great distance was likely the main detriment moreso than having to deal with two countries that were both in the E.U. anyway. Not to mention that you also still had Sion & Turin on the table which were much better options TBW.

It just really depends on how much is being proposed on the Slovak side. If it's not that much, I don't see it being that much of an issue, much like Salzburg 2014 wasn't with a venue right across in Germany. What Krakow has to worry about are the two Scandinavian bids. Those are their main problem.

As far as I know and can tell from Salzburg's two bids was that the Germany government, nor NOC were involved. The Slovak government and NOC are involved with this bid in a much deeper and more meaningful way than I think the IOC will be comfortable with. I can just see the headaches with automatic qualification now.

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Salzburg's proposal to use the sliding venue in Germany was a logical choice due to location, as well as the fact that the existing sliding track at Innsbruck meant that Austria didn't really require 2 sliding venues in such a small sized country.

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. What Krakow has to worry about are the two Scandinavian bids. Those are their main problem.

They can cancel each other out.

Finland was proposing their Alpine venue all the way in Norway, though. A distance of 600 miles is much less feasible than one that is less than 100 miles away, even if it is right across a border. The great distance was likely the main detriment moreso than having to deal with two countries that were both in the E.U. anyway. Not to mention that you also still had Sion & Turin on the table which were much better options TBW.

Oh that was ridiculous. One country over.

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Like 2020, I think USOC might be regretting not being in on this one.

No way.

The US would not have won 2020. They needed the last cycle to rebuild relationships. It was ESSENTIAL for them to sit out that race.

As for 2022, there's still competition in this cycle. It would not have been a slam dunk. Keep in mind that a Winter win also translates to a Summer loss (or at the very least, long deferral). The USOC has clearly prioritized Summer Games (at least for now) and a 2022 bid would've been an obstacle to that end.

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While I haven't seen Quebec City's bid book for the 2002 Winter Games, they too suffered from this new kind of "Stockholm Syndrome" - or "Helsinki Hangup" or "Krakow Konundrum" - of being an almost ideal winter city, but have a serious mountain problem. Le Massif was at the center of the "Quebec Question", but one proposal I recall was shipping the downhillers out to Mount Allan in Alberta, the 1988 venue, nearly 4000 km away.

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They can cancel each other out.

Right. Just like London & Paris did, & Athens & Rome.

No way.

The US would not have won 2020. They needed the last cycle to rebuild relationships. It was ESSENTIAL for them to sit out that race.

As for 2022, there's still competition in this cycle. It would not have been a slam dunk. Keep in mind that a Winter win also translates to a Summer loss (or at the very least, long deferral). The USOC has clearly prioritized Summer Games (at least for now) and a 2022 bid would've been an obstacle to that end.

Lmfao, he is almost comical, isn't he. In other threads, he's constantly on a rant that the U.S. shouldn't "arrogantly" come in bidding & "expecting" to win. And here he says that the USOC might be "regretting" not bidding for these two races. So which is it! :lol:

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The USOC shouldn't expect to win, but a bid from Denver (as an example) would have been a strong contender in a slot that does look favourably to North America. Also if Denver and Calgary had been put into the equation, the IOC would have been happier than a Senator on the government account. It would have meant being able to gracefully reject Almaty and Beijing.

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  1. Beijing: For political reasons Beijing will be moved through as a candidate. I am sure the IOC would like to see China host an OWG before another OG. Keeping them in the process will allow the Chinese to learn and receive feedback on how to proceed in the future. The IFs will likely be as harsh with the Chinese as they were with the Koreans to see improvement and a more wholly engaged Chinese Sporting Culture with winter sport. But on technical grounds, Beijing has what it takes.

I think you guys have this exactly backwards on Bejing. "Not wanting to piss off China" is why Beijing *won't* make the short list.

If you make the short list but aren't selected, then you are capable of hosting; it's just that the IOC likes somebody else better.

If you don't make the short list, it's not that the voters didn't like you, it's that you have some technical shortcoming that may or may not be fixable. That'll be much more palatable for the Chinese to accept.

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Beijing is the fly in the ointment here, ain't it!

I'm sure Oslo with get an easy pass to the Candidate Phase.

And the IOC will have all sorts of logical reasons to boot out the others: Stockholm (distance), Krakow (binational), Lviv (construction) and Almaty (infrastructure).

But most of the reasons I can think for cutting Beijing seem political.

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I think you guys have this exactly backwards on Bejing. "Not wanting to piss off China" is why Beijing *won't* make the short list.

Beijing 2022 will be in, much for the same reasons why the IOC included Moscow on the 2012 short-list; geopolitics. Plus, unlike Moscow 2012 (which had several challenges) Beijing 2022 is technically capable of hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics. And the short-list process is suppose to be one of only technical matter in the first place.

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any idea when the draw to determine the presentation order will be held?

After they announce the shortlist -- not before. (Or not unless the whole process is revised/overhauled ASAP as Bach I think what's to do.)

Edited by baron-pierreIV

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any idea when the draw to determine the presentation order will be held?

The cities will be listed in alphabetical order until such time as the official drawing of lots is carried out by the IOC EB in December 2013. The order of drawing of lots will then be used until the election of the 2022 host city.

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Why so soon..if there is going to be a Shortlist? And as if jumbling them around in some random order will really improve the chances of any one bid...

Edited by baron-pierreIV

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I think the order of drawing of lots will be used in the Evaluation Committee Report that will be released in June 2014. The Applicant city seminar begins tomorrow, so the drawing might be carried out right there.

Isn't the final presentation order just modified initial order carried out in December 2013?

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They jumble them up now and final order is just the same order with the unsuccessful applicants taken out.

2020 the order was Istanbul, Tokyo, (Baku), (Doha), and Madrid. The difference with 2018 was that none of the cities were eliminated, but the drawing still took place during the Applicant phase. You can see the same order being used in the Working Group (applicant) and Evaluation Commission (candidate) reports.

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I think Oslo and Beijing will make the shortlist definitely. I also think Almaty has a high chance of making the shortlist.

I don't think Krakow/Jasna will make the shortlist because of the bi-national bid. However, the distance between those two places is 600km yet the distance between Stockholm and Are is also 600km. I think the distance between the two cities is too large for a games. I also don't think Lviv will make the shortlist. It doesn't really have the new frontier, i'd give that to Almaty who also has more sporting hosting experience (which they ranked lowest in for the 2014 games) and they have previously bid for the games before.

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I think Oslo and Beijing will make the shortlist definitely. I also think Almaty has a high chance of making the shortlist.

I don't think Krakow/Jasna will make the shortlist because of the bi-national bid. However, the distance between those two places is 600km yet the distance between Stockholm and Are is also 600km. I think the distance between the two cities is too large for a games. I also don't think Lviv will make the shortlist. It doesn't really have the new frontier, i'd give that to Almaty who also has more sporting hosting experience (which they ranked lowest in for the 2014 games) and they have previously bid for the games before.

Krakow/Jasna is not more than 200km, AFAIK.

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I don't think Krakow/Jasna will make the shortlist because of the bi-national bid. However, the distance between those two places is 600km yet the distance between Stockholm and Are is also 600km. I think the distance between the two cities is too large for a games.

600 km? You might have confused Slovakia with Croatia.

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