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baron-pierreIV

Which 4 cities do u think will make the 2022 Short List?

Which will be the 2022 Finalist cities?  

116 members have voted

  1. 1. Pick 4 that u think will make the Short List.

    • Almaty
      77
    • Beijing-Yankeejoe
      68
    • Krakow-Jasna
      81
    • Lviv
      27
    • Oslo-Kvitjfell
      108
    • Stockholm-Are
      72


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Well, what makes you think the magic number is four. Not saying I don't agree with that, but it could also be three, maybe to keep a dark horse bid in, which that likely would be Krakow.

So if it's four:

Stockholm

Oslo

Beijing

Krakow

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Well, what makes you think the magic number is four.

4 seems to be a reasonable number to make it a lively race. It could be 3, it could be 5. This is just for a fun exercise; that's all.

U don't have to get soooooooooo defensive about Stockholm.

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I know it's an exercise. I was just wondering your reasoning with the number, that's all. That's why I went on to say "not saying I don't agree with that". And I'm not getting anymore "soooooo defensive" about Stockholm than you get whenever Reno comes into the discussion. Which had Reno been in the running for 2022 now, you'd be all over it & saying that everyone else, including Lviv & Krakow, which you seem to be endorsing now, would all be done for, despite many having contrary opinions.

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Just look at it for fun. We don't know what the 'magic number' will be.

The IOC could say to Stockholm that the distance is too far. They could say no binational bids to Krakow. They could tell Beijing and Lviv their mountains aren't up to snuff. And then we're down to Oslo and Almaty.

And we all remember what happened in the 2006 race!

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Almaty almost made the shortlist in 2006 for the 2014 Games, and have since hosted the Asian Winter Games. They'll have a good case for the shortlist.

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"Almost" making the short-list at one time doesn't mean anything. Look at Doha. Twice they surpassed the technical benchmark, & twice they were overlooked by the IOC. And especially after Sochi 2014, places like Lviv & Almaty could prove too controversial for the IOC to take a gamble again so soon after.

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  1. Oslo
  2. Stockholm
  3. Krakow+Jasna
  4. Almaty

3 cities(1,2,3;Oslo,Stockholm,Krakow+Jasna)will be shortlisted finally,I bet. For Liviv I don't know what the city is like. Beijing + Yangkeejoe :P ,I think China thinks this is an rehearsal for Harbin bid in the future.

*Yangkeejoe is 張= jiang 家 =jia 口 =kou, jiang jia kou

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Oslo and Almaty are the only ones I think will make the shortlist for sure, and I think Lviv certainly will not. The other three have significant drawbacks that could keep them from the shortlist. We'll see what the IOC thinks of the distance between Stockholm and Are, the dual-country nature of Krakow, and the quality of the Zhangjiakou portion of the Beijing bid. I really can't see the IOC keeping China off the shortlist if the bid is even halfway decent--they may not want to snub their most important developing market.

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I would be shocked if Beijing wasn't shortlisted. The shortlist isn't about geopolitics, it's about capability and Beijing is most definitely capable. Plus, I suspect the IOC cares way too much about their relationship with China to insult them by not shortlisting them. Yes, it happened to Harbin, but that was a different set of circumstances. I believe the Chinese will be in the mix.

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In recent history, other than 2006, I'd say about 60% to 2/3 of the cities get shortlisted. That means you can expect up to 4 cities to be shortlisted in my opinion, but then again, maybe even 5.

Obviously, Oslo and Stockholm should get shortlisted if their respective governments go thru with it. I expect one of the two governments to say no in all seriousness, and in my opinion, because of Are and because of their skepticism, Stockholm is more likely to say no, and I think they will in the end. I think that with that, Oslo would say yes and be shortlisted. However, if Sweden does end up saying yes, they will obviously be shortlisted because they have all the infrastructure and funds.

Beijing is a fairly "safe" bet when you get beyond those two cities in my opinion. The way I see it, candidate cities aren't selected based on who is likely to win, they are selected based on infrastructure as a way to "weed out" the cities like Baku. Beijing has all the infrastructure and although very likely to lose, the IOC probably wants them to host down the road and as a result, will give them the opportunity to make this a successful warm-up bid of sorts.

This is where the gray area kicks in. I see no way Lviv gets selected as a candidate city, but heck, you never know with this IOC. As for Krakow and Almaty, either 0, 1, or 2 of them will be selected. I see it largely dependent on Stockholm and Oslo. Should one decline, I tend to think both would be shortlisted. On the other hand, if both go thru, at least one should be shortlisted and perhaps both. Krakow, although a new concept, has the infrastructure under construction and despite people saying that the joint bid hurts their chances, I just don't see it that way. Almaty is similar. They are like Beijing in the sense they are likely to host a games in the near future and as a result, might get shortlisted because of that, but the same goes for Krakow. The way I see it, I think both will get shortlisted, because I don't think both Oslo/Stockholm will follow thru.

I'd say Oslo, Krakow, Beijing, and Almaty will get shortlisted in the end, simply because I don't see Sweden following through with the Are concept, and heck, Oslo might leave the race as well. Also, I don't expect a runaway Oslo victory either, and as unpopular as it is, Beijing is a solid option, and the other two would provide an interesting new frontier for the games. I guess over the next year and a half we will see.

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With it looking like we'll have two cities from Scandinavia, two from Eastern Europe & two from Asia, it's mostly gonna pan out that the short-list, at this point, will be the two from Scandinavia, one from Eastern Europe & one from Asia. Nicely rounding out all the geographical areas from the applicant phase.

With that said, the ones from Eastern Europe & Asia will be Krakow & Beijing. I agree with the sentiment that the Chinese are just too strong of a relationship for the IOC to ignore & insult, much like Moscow getting short-listed for 2012. Plus, with 2018 & 2020 already slated for Asia, the IOC probably would want to curtail the Asian 2022 candidates.

And Krakow is the strongest among the two Eastern European fronts. They could be a dark horse depending on what they're offering. Plus, they'll be the least controversial considering what we're seeing with Sochi 2014. Beijing also has the potential for such too. But at least with the Chinese, they have the proven means to put on a good show & again the IOC mostly likely would want to play nice with them.

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Shortlists are pretty technical, and so the cut off point might be hard to pinpoint this early.

I think Oslo is an easy pass to the Candidate phase.

To me, Beijing is a strange bid (if you don't like the trend of bigger cities hosting the Winter Games, you're gonna HATE this bid), but most of it will depend on their snow region and how developed it is. Iffy.

Almaty should get a pass to the next phase. They have some experience now and the IOC will want some insurance in case anyone pulls a Berne 2010. Likely to make the list.

Stockholm's weakness is the distance to Are. Sweden kinda has all the dream situations the IOC would want for a Winter Olympics - the climate, some wealthy global companies to sponsor it, pristine and picturesque, huge winter culture, efficient and well organized, one of the most successful Olympic countries, and great infrastructure. If it weren't for a 600 km stretch of lakes, land and trees between Stockholm and Are, this would be a slam dunk. For me, Stockholm's chances are iffy and depend on the mood and view of the IOC on that one issue.

I expect Lviv to be cut because it will require too much construction in a country that doesn't have all that big of a Winter Games tradition.

And the Polish/Slovak bid will likely be rejected because the IOC has never been fond of binational bids.

Now...of course, looking back on the list, two risky factors that I kinda of alluded to in the Almaty line - the bid bailers. Switzerland has done it before and if anyone here is going to do it, it would be their northern cousins in Scandinavia. So the IOC is likely to go with a minimum of three candidates (and possibly four) just to make sure a bail doesn't box them into a corner.

Edited by Kenadian

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Even if Oslo &/or Stockholm pull a Berne, Beijing & Krakow are insurance policy enough. And that's already four cities moving forward to candidate stage. Plus, Berne bailed out bcuz of a referendum after the fact. At least Munich had theirs before the application deadline. And Oslo did the same too, but theirs past, so I don't see them going anywhere now, unless their government doesn't wanna back it in the end.

I agree about Lviv, though, I just don't see that bid cutting the mustard. And Almaty, they may have hosted some things, but with all the things going on with Sochi 2014, the corruption, the mega overspending, the controversies, etc, I just don't see the IOC wanting to take a chance in eating another bad apple. Especially at a time when you have great cities like Rome, Munich, St. Moritz & Salzburg all running away from the Games. Certainly the IOC would like so save some face when so many are criticizing their ways. Not to mention, Almaty is only a few hundred miles away from Pakistan & Afghanistan. Isn't that a little too close for comfort. Seems like it would be.

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I see your point, but Almaty is not really that close to Pakistan & Afghanistan. There's a buffer of Uzbekistan, Krygyzstan, and Tajikistan and all their mountains and steppes in between. North Korea is a bigger threat to Pyeongchang than Afghanistan is to Almaty. And let's not get into Sochi...oy! Almaty is as far away from Kabul as Vancouver is to Tijuana and you didn't see Quatchi mugged by a cartel gangster.

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Even if Oslo &/or Stockholm pull a Berne, Beijing & Krakow are insurance policy enough. And that's already four cities moving forward to candidate stage. Plus, Berne bailed out bcuz of a referendum after the fact. At least Munich had theirs before the application deadline. And Oslo did the same too, but theirs past, so I don't see them going anywhere now, unless their government doesn't wanna back it in the end.

I agree about Lviv, though, I just don't see that bid cutting the mustard. And Almaty, they may have hosted some things, but with all the things going on with Sochi 2014, the corruption, the mega overspending, the controversies, etc, I just don't see the IOC wanting to take a chance in eating another bad apple. Especially at a time when you have great cities like Rome, Munich, St. Moritz & Salzburg all running away from the Games. Certainly the IOC would like so save some face when so many are criticizing their ways. Not to mention, Almaty is only a few hundred miles away from Pakistan & Afghanistan. Isn't that a little too close for comfort. Seems like it would be.

Somewhat ironic since Almaty would boast to have the largest production of apples in the region and a huge historical culture behind it. Heck the 2014 bid somewhat emphasized that.

Almaty_2014_Olympic_bid_logo.jpg

After the "partial" success of the 2011 Asian Games and securing of the 2017 Universiade, I think Almaty will make the shortlist this time. Whether it wins is a different story, as I think a good Oslo bid (which is probably the safest) will beat even a culturally significant and compact Almaty bid.

I think it would be 3 cities making the cut. Almaty, Oslo and Beijing. Stockholm will only make the cut because it comes from a stable, wealthy nation where the supposed existing infrastructure in the city itself is there and ready. (or as another sign of the IOC's corruption) Otherwise it will be cut as to show that even major cities bidding won't make it due to some technical reasons (primarily Are being too far a distance from Stockholm).

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Oops, I voted for a fifth city -My bad-

I think the shortlist will be:

Oslo - No brainer there. Only a potential withdraw could stop that

Beijing - If China makes a decent to excellent bid -Which I think they will- they don't have problems to make the shortlist.

After that:

Almaty - I think they'll pass the shortlist, even with not real chances to winning. But it's not sure thing as China and Norway.

Next of that, it could be:

Krakow - If Stockholm came with bigger obstacles or dropped out well, good for Poland/Slovakia

Stockholm - If they overcome the obstacles regardless geographical space, gouvernment support...

Lviv - It's almost out of the race

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U cannot vote in the next poll, Roger87. U have gotten a yellow card!! ;)

***********************************************

Interesting how Krakow has now bypassed Stockholm 31 votes to 30.

Edited by baron-pierreIV

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Interesting how Krakow has now bypassed Stockholm 31 votes to 30.

You shouldn't go with any of the polls on here. The 2020 one was pretty off, too. ;)

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