Beijing/Zhangjiakou 2022

[FYI]

In the end I doubt they could do it, maybe the could, but deep down I don't think they will. Then again who knows?

The only thing that sucks is with Oslo slowly dropping the IOC may have to go with Beijing.

Now I'm not backing Almaty, but these are important questions to ask as the possibility of China hosting becomes more real.

Once again I never said that Kazakhstan could do it. Almaty has a long, long, long way to go before they are 'Olympic ready' and that involves becoming a liberal democracy.

All of these references contradict each other, especially when they're constantly going back & forth. You say you never said Kazakatan could do it. But in the first quote, you end it off with "maybe they could. Who knows". That's not very definitive, just wishy washy. Especially when in the same breath, you're questioning China's abilities.

I really don't think that there's anything to question about the Chinese. They'd be reliable. The IOC also doesn't have the luxury here if they think they could get a bad PR wrap by going with tbe Chinese again. Who's to say that bad PR couldn't be the case with Kazahkstan as well.

It's all seemingly coming down to a bad choice vs a worse choice if Oslo does indeed end up withdrawing. But if you feel that you still need to be on the fence over the two, then that's your business. But it's quite clear, especially after the report, which of the two is the best (of a bad) suitor here.

And lets be real, marketing may cost a good bit of money, but your not going to reach the 50-40 billion dollar mark with it.

Did I say that it would cost $40-50 Billion?! You're taking that way outta context. I said that TYPE of marketing (which you were implying to) would be "expensive". Which would still be a good chunk of an overall budget.

[mr.bernham]

All of these references contradict each other, especially when they're constantly going back & forth. You say you never said Kazakatan could do it. But in the first quote, you end it off with "maybe they could. Who knows". That's not very definitive, just wishy washy. Especially when in the same breath, you're questioning China's abilities.

I really don't think that there's anything to question about the Chinese. They'd be reliable. The IOC also doesn't have the luxury here if they think they could get a bad PR wrap by going with tbe Chinese again. Who's to say that bad PR couldn't be the case with Kazahkstan as well.

It's all seemingly coming down to a bad choice vs a worse choice if Oslo does indeed end up withdrawing. But if you feel that you still need to be on the fence over the two, then that's your business. But it's quite clear, especially after the report, which of the two is the best (of a bad) suitor here.

Did I say that it would cost $40-50 Billion?! You're taking that way outta context. I said that TYPE of marketing (which you were implying to) would be "expensive". Which would still be a good chunk of an overall budget.

I'm not questioning China's abilities, but their promises. Almaty is the city that could never fulfill on their promises and like you say, for a marketing scheme that I call for it would be expensive (but not massively expensive). At the same time we simply do not know what an Almaty games would really look like until they happen, maybe they could pull them off, but maybe they can't. In the end China is still the safest option of the two.

The only respective part of each bid that puts me on the fence are the venues. On one hand Almaty has most of the necessary venues and only two would have to be built with others renovated. Beijing on the other hand has to construct the majority of their venues. But I think in the end each one would cost around the same and I'm expecting that the budgets would be close to 20 billion at the least.

[Tony E Loves Architecture]

I agree with @FYI. The IOC won't care about bad PR, especially in these difficult Times for the IOC. They would prefer a bad PR with Beijing 2022 over a risky, unknown, unrealistic Almaty 2022. At least with China, what You see is what You get and they are not in denial, unlike Kazakhstan, who try to pretend they would stage a 'Low Cost' Games, but realistically, they would be just as expensive as Beijing 2022. Also, the IOC isn't in the position to take risk aswell. They have seen that Beijing can deliver and Host a successful Games (Yeah, 2008 Summer Olympics and Paralympics, I am talking to You). What's Almaty got to offer? An Asian Winter Games they Co-Hosted with Astana (Which Astana got the Good words for) and a 2017 Winter Universiade and 2017 World Expo (Which they will Host after the 2022 decision and were the only Bidders for the 2017 Winter Universiade). Maybe if Sochi 2014 was less controversial, the IOC MIGHT have risked it with Almaty, but then again, they probably wouldn't have. Also, if Sochi 2014 was less controversial, Munich and a Bid from Switzerland might have Bid and Stockholm might have stayed in the race.

I think in these desperate Times, the IOC needs a Host with a reliable economy and a Country that has proven it can deliver. Beijing can offer that despite there faults. MAYBE by 2022, China might have fixed it's Human Rights issues and foreign policy issues, as well as their Environment issues. Whether it's Beijing or Almaty, the Media will bring out bad stories about them, but the IOC knows what to expect with China, because of 2008. This is of course only going to happen IF Oslo withdraws, because they are still officially in the race and are still officially the Favourites.

[phandrosis]

MAYBE by 2022, China might have fixed it's Human Rights issues and foreign policy issues, as well as their Environment issues.

ill try an organize a coup

[mr.bernham]

I agree with @FYI. The IOC won't care about bad PR, especially in these difficult Times for the IOC. They would prefer a bad PR with Beijing 2022 over a risky, unknown, unrealistic Almaty 2022. At least with China, what You see is what You get and they are not in denial, unlike Kazakhstan, who try to pretend they would stage a 'Low Cost' Games, but realistically, they would be just as expensive as Beijing 2022. Also, the IOC isn't in the position to take risk aswell. They have seen that Beijing can deliver and Host a successful Games (Yeah, 2008 Summer Olympics and Paralympics, I am talking to You). What's Almaty got to offer? An Asian Winter Games they Co-Hosted with Astana (Which Astana got the Good words for) and a 2017 Winter Universiade and 2017 World Expo (Which they will Host after the 2022 decision and were the only Bidders for the 2017 Winter Universiade). Maybe if Sochi 2014 was less controversial, the IOC MIGHT have risked it with Almaty, but then again, they probably wouldn't have. Also, if Sochi 2014 was less controversial, Munich and a Bid from Switzerland might have Bid and Stockholm might have stayed in the race.

I think in these desperate Times, the IOC needs a Host with a reliable economy and a Country that has proven it can deliver. Beijing can offer that despite there faults. MAYBE by 2022, China might have fixed it's Human Rights issues and foreign policy issues, as well as their Environment issues. Whether it's Beijing or Almaty, the Media will bring out bad stories about them, but the IOC knows what to expect with China, because of 2008. This is of course only going to happen IF Oslo withdraws, because they are still officially in the race and are still officially the Favourites.

Yeah, because bad PR is what the IOC needs right now...can't the IOC do something like give the games to Oslo without the race thus alleviating the possibility of them dropping out or cut a deal with another country?

[Tony E Loves Architecture]

Yeah, because bad PR is what the IOC needs right now...can't the IOC do something like give the games to Oslo without the race thus alleviating the possibility of them dropping out or cut a deal with another country?

I'm not saying the IOC needs or wants bad PR. I'm saying, that in the bad situation the IOC is in, they would be willing to take Beijing as Host, even with the bad PR.

Also, I don't think giving the Games to Oslo, then Oslo pulling out is the solution. Look what happened with Denver. Also, I assume the Norwegian Public wouldn't like that idea either. The solutions are simple: Either 1) The Oslo 2022 Bid Team and Government ignore the Norwegian Public, carry on Bidding and Win, or Oslo 2022 Bid Team and Government listen to the Norwegian Public, withdraw and Beijing Hosts, despite it's faults. It's not the ideal solution, but they are the only solutions. The IOC messed up, now they have to deal with the consequences, so giving the 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympics to Almaty will only make matters worse.

[mr.bernham]

At least with China, what You see is what You get and they are not in denial, unlike Kazakhstan, who try to pretend they would stage a 'Low Cost' Games, but realistically, they would be just as expensive as Beijing 2022.

Yeah that is why they said a Beijing games would be frugal? All cities are playing the "We will be affordable" card in the hopes it will improve their electability.

They have seen that Beijing can deliver and Host a successful Games (Yeah, 2008 Summer Olympics and Paralympics, I am talking to You). What's Almaty got to offer? An Asian Winter Games they Co-Hosted with Astana (Which Astana got the Good words for) and a 2017 Winter Universiade and 2017 World Expo (Which they will Host after the 2022 decision and were the only Bidders for the 2017 Winter Universiade).

Regardless of what you think or what city got more praise, Almaty still has more winter sports experience. Beijing, zero. Hosting the summer games is very different from winter as both are two completely different climates and sport types. If Beijing had winter experience then Zhangjaku would have a much better infrastructure and connectivity to the capitol.

I think in these desperate Times, the IOC needs a Host with a reliable economy and a Country that has proven it can deliver. Beijing can offer that despite there faults. MAYBE by 2022, China might have fixed it's Human Rights issues and foreign policy issues, as well as their Environment issues. Whether it's Beijing or Almaty, the Media will bring out bad stories about them, but the IOC knows what to expect with China, because of 2008. This is of course only going to happen IF Oslo withdraws, because they are still officially in the race and are still officially the Favourites.

Have you not looked at the predictions saying the China's bubble is about to pop? Plain and simple China's growth is unsustainable and will not last. Also, if the nation survived the attempted democratic coup then went on to change very little other then economically then I doubt China will be some free democratic nation eight years from now. The media will bring out bad stories for anyone and between Almaty and Beijing I would say both would be terrible for the IOC PR wise.

[FYI]

I'm not questioning China's abilities, but their promises.

At the same time we simply do not know what an Almaty games would really look like until they happen, maybe they could pull them off, but maybe they can't.

Well, it's a good thing that you don't have to worry about it then. Like it's been said many times here already, the IOC is not in any position in this race to worry about the Chinese's 'promises'. All they need to know is 'can they deliver for us, when we're down sh!t's creek without a paddle here'. And the answer is a resound - yes.

Exactly, we don't know what an Almaty games would look like. And judging from that preliminary evaluation (which only confirms what many speculated anyway), it doesn't look too promising. But we do know what a Chinese Games would look like. And the report also reflects this. So why take a great risk, with little reward, with such an obscure country with a questionable political outlook. The IOC had to pick up the last of the scraps for this short-list. So it shouldn't be too difficult to see how they are leaning.

[Gold Coast Lions]

Yeah, because bad PR is what the IOC needs right now...can't the IOC do something like give the games to Oslo without the race thus alleviating the possibility of them dropping out or cut a deal with another country?

And the IOC needs another $50 Billion Dollar Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games that will keep the interest in Europe hosting the winter games and bad PR as well with Beijing Real Smart NOT.

Oslo Norway is very very likely to be pulling out and which leaves the IOC with and fresh new place Almaty Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan is an secular liberal democracy with it;s father is still alive and yes there is the prove that the IOC is really impressed with Kazakhstan hosting the 2011 Asian Winter Games and would make an fine host of the Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games.

[FYI]

Regardless of what you think or what city got more praise, Almaty still has more winter sports experience. Beijing, zero. Hosting the summer games is very different from winter as both are two completely different climates and sport types. If Beijing had winter experience then Zhangjaku would have a much better infrastructure and connectivity to the capitol.

Oh, geez. Now you sound like Darcy. How much "winter experimence" did Sochi (a SUMMER resort city) have before they hosted. "Zero". And it's not like Almaty is some winter mecca, either. So this is neither here nor there.

Have you not looked at the predictions saying the China's bubble is about to pop? Plain and simple China's growth is unsustainable and will not last.

Even if that were the case, which I doubt is around the corner anyway, China would still have ten-fold the financial means of Kazakstan. And besides, if you're arguing about overspending, then what difference would that make anyway.

[Gold Coast Lions]

Oh, geez. Now you sound like Darcy. How much "winter experimence" did Sochi (a SUMMER resort city) have before they hosted. "Zero". And it's not like Almaty is some winter mecca, either. So this is neither here nor there.

Even if that were the case, which I doubt is around the corner anyway, China would still have ten-fold the financial means of Kazakstan. And besides, if you're arguing about overspending, then what difference would that make anyway.

Kazakhstan owes less debt then China does the total debt % to GDP Kazakhstan owes is only 12.5% and China owes 31.7% so Kazakhstan is very much indeed an clean economy only owes an small amount of debt.

[ofan]

Kazakhstan owes less debt then China does the total debt % to GDP Kazakhstan owes is only 12.5% and China owes 31.7% so Kazakhstan is very much indeed an clean economy only owes an small amount of debt.

Oh gee, maybe that's because Kazakstan is about a tenth the size of China. Edited August 31, 2014 by ofan

[Tony E Loves Architecture]

Kazakhstan owes less debt then China does the total debt % to GDP Kazakhstan owes is only 12.5% and China owes 31.7% so Kazakhstan is very much indeed an clean economy only owes an small amount of debt.

That didn't affect the IOC's evaluation report. That also doesn't affect the fact that the IOC has made it clear that they don't want to go to Almaty, neither do most of us, neither does some of the Kazakhstan public want Almaty 2022. Also, I don't really believe Your 'Figures' in economics. They don't add up. China has a really strong economy, end of it. China has delivered before and will deliver again.

[ofan]

China's GDP is literally 40 times the size of Kazakhstan's.

[FYI]

Oh gee, maybe that's because Kazakstan is about a tenth the size of China.

Exactly. That's like saying a child or a homeless person has "less debt" than a working-class adult, with a house, car, clothes, etc.

[Nacre]

Have you not looked at the predictions saying the China's bubble is about to pop? Plain and simple China's growth is unsustainable and will not last. Also, if the nation survived the attempted democratic coup then went on to change very little other then economically then I doubt China will be some free democratic nation eight years from now. The media will bring out bad stories for anyone and between Almaty and Beijing I would say both would be terrible for the IOC PR wise.

China's manufacturing growth won't last, in the same way that the industrialization of the UK, Germany and USA didn't result in infinite manufacturing growth, but that doesn't mean that China's economy is going to implode. China is developing a knowledge based economy now as well, and the purchasing power of its public is increasing and will eventually enable a consumption economy just like the industrialization of Europe, Japan, South Korea and North America did.

China would be a very solid Olympic host. We can argue that it's a waste of money to build the venues, but surely shouldn't there be one bobsled track in China, anyway?

The problem is not China. It's the fact that the western world is growing less and less interested in hosting.

[woohooitsme83]

Have you not looked at the predictions saying the China's bubble is about to pop? Plain and simple China's growth is unsustainable and will not last. Also, if the nation survived the attempted democratic coup then went on to change very little other then economically then I doubt China will be some free democratic nation eight years from now. The media will bring out bad stories for anyone and between Almaty and Beijing I would say both would be terrible for the IOC PR wise.

A vague example of a democratic China would be Taiwan

Regardless of what you think or what city got more praise, Almaty still has more winter sports experience. Beijing, zero. Hosting the summer games is very different from winter as both are two completely different climates and sport types. If Beijing had winter experience then Zhangjaku would have a much better infrastructure and connectivity to the capitol.

There is a rail link between them, but it only drops you off at the edge of the city

[Olympic Fan Darcy]

Oh, geez. Now you sound like Darcy. How much "winter experimence" did Sochi (a SUMMER resort city) have before they hosted. "Zero". And it's not like Almaty is some winter mecca, either. So this is neither here nor there.

Oh no, don't bring me into this argument. I'm distancing myself from all these annoying young posters who just post drivel.

But you should stop referencing Sochi seeing as they're the reason the IOC is struggling to attract bids. Maybe if Sochi had some hosting experience, the budget wouldn't have been so damn high. Perhaps having existing stadiums might shave off a few billion from the budget. Luckily Almaty has the most existing venues without work needing to be done.

[mr.bernham]

Oh, geez. Now you sound like Darcy. How much "winter experimence" did Sochi (a SUMMER resort city) have before they hosted. "Zero". And it's not like Almaty is some winter mecca, either. So this is neither here nor there.

Yeah, and Sochi turned out just peachy for the IOC? If people want to bring in experience then be ready for the facts to come out.

Even if that were the case, which I doubt is around the corner anyway, China would still have ten-fold the financial means of Kazakstan. And besides, if you're arguing about overspending, then what difference would that make anyway.

Go spend a few hours reading Foreign Policy or other foreign policy/economic news sites.

China's manufacturing growth won't last, in the same way that the industrialization of the UK, Germany and USA didn't result in infinite manufacturing growth, but that doesn't mean that China's economy is going to implode. China is developing a knowledge based economy now as well, and the purchasing power of its public is increasing and will eventually enable a consumption economy just like the industrialization of Europe, Japan, South Korea and North America did.

China would be a very solid Olympic host. We can argue that it's a waste of money to build the venues, but surely shouldn't there be one bobsled track in China, anyway?

The problem is not China. It's the fact that the western world is growing less and less interested in hosting.

The problem is that China is not a free market like the UK, Germany, or the US. The Chinese economy is still very socialist, this will keep their economy from changing and innovating. Then of course you still have half a billion people who are not in the middle class and rely on manufacturing for jobs, with many of those jobs now either coming back overseas or moving to other nations China will be left with millions of unemployed people. China's economy is a recipe for disaster.

[FYI]

But you should stop referencing Sochi seeing as they're the reason the IOC is struggling to attract bids. Maybe if Sochi had some hosting experience, the budget wouldn't have been so damn high. Perhaps having existing stadiums might shave off a few billion from the budget.

No, what made the budget so 'damn high' was Russia's nature of corruption. The initial budget was only $12 Billion. That's what the IOC voted for. I'm sure in hindsight, had they known that after all was said & done, & every cronie in Russia got their hand in the Olympic pie, that they would've voted for Sochi in the first place.

Also having hosted some little winter Asian games hardly qualifies as "winter hosting experience", either. You guys make it sound as if Almaty is some well-known international winter mecca, hosting winter world championships on a regular basis, when it's clearly not.

Luckily Almaty has the most existing venues without work needing to be done.

Funnily, though, the IOC preliminary report doesn't reflect this. It takes more than having a few "venues" in place to take on a 21st century Winter Olympics. Almaty would also need to upgrade & add infrastructure in order to accommodate the influx of international visitors, media & dignitaries. So to say that "no work needing to be done" is truly a gross misrepresentation on the subject..

[Olympic Fan Darcy]

No, what made the budget so 'damn high' was Russia's nature of corruption. The initial budget was only $12 Billion. That's what the IOC voted for. I'm sure in hindsight, had they known that after all was said & done, & every cronie in Russia got their hand in the Olympic pie, that they would've voted for Sochi in the first place.

You REALLY don't think that having more venues in place would lower the budget? Not at all? Because that's just stupid.

Also having hosted some little winter Asian games hardly qualifies as "winter hosting experience", either. You guys make it sound as if Almaty is some well-known international winter mecca, hosting winter world championships on a regular basis, when it's clearly not.

Counts as something unlike Zhangjiakou which has hosted nothing and I haven't even heard of anything Beijing has hosted winter wise. Almaty is not a well-known international mecca, but "you make it sound like Almaty has hosted nothing".

So to say that "no work needing to be done" is truly a gross misrepresentation on the subject..

I guess it's lucky that I didn't actually say Almaty has "no work needing to be done"... They do have the most venues in place that don't need work done. (8 venues for Almaty, 1 for Oslo and 4 for Beijing).

[Gold Coast Lions]

Almaty Kazakhstan is also hosting an big test event 5 years out from 2022 the 2017 Winter University Games which is regarded the biggest winter multi sporting event after the Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games we got an taste what the Almaty Kazakhstan what would like already when they hosted an impressive Asian Winter Games by the IOC. Kazakhstan is an up and coming global power great links with everyone and a place where East meets west,and would host an amazing winter games.

[Olympic Fan Darcy]

I just want to say I don't support almost anything GCL says...

[mr.bernham]

Almaty Kazakhstan is also hosting an big test event 5 years out from 2022 the 2017 Winter University Games which is regarded the biggest winter multi sporting event after the Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games we got an taste what the Almaty Kazakhstan what would like already when they hosted an impressive Asian Winter Games by the IOC. Kazakhstan is an up and coming global power great links with everyone and a place where East meets west,and would host an amazing winter games.

Seriously just shut the f*ck up.

[FYI]

You REALLY don't think that having more venues in place would lower the budget? Not at all? Because that's just stupid.

Yeah, cuz all you need is a couple of fricken venues & everything's hunky dorey. THAT's whats "stupid".

Counts as something unlike Zhangjiakou which has hosted nothing and I haven't even heard of anything Beijing has hosted winter wise. Almaty is not a well-known international mecca, but "you make it sound like Almaty has hosted nothing" .

Might as well have hosted nothing. The only reason they've hosted what little they have, is cuz they were the only bidders in the two events that they've gone for. And that's the only way they would get this too. By no one else wanting to bother.

I guess it's lucky that I didn't actually say Almaty has "no work needing to be done"... They do have the most venues in place that don't need work.

Oh, excuse me. You said "WITHOUT work needing to be done". Basically the same thing as "no' work needing to be done. Again, the "venues" aren't everything. OTHER work would have to be done. Plain & simple. Again, that's what the report reflects. .