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Elections in Germany


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Today kicks off what actually should be the most exciting political week in Germany of the recent few years: Bavaria, the state behind the possible Munich 2022 bid, elections a new regional parliament today - and one week from now, the whole of Germany elects a new parliament, the Bundestag, and the "battleground state" of Hessen elects a new regional parliament as well.

But interestingly, we are in the middle of what is considered the most boring election campaign in Germany's post-war history. Chancellor Angela Merkel seems to head safely into her third term, but leads a campaign almost completely devoid of any content besides the message "You know me, I care for you, I'm the 'mother of the country', so vote for me." The most exciting question of this election remains whether she obtains a new majority for her Conservative-Liberal coalition government or has to resort to another coalition partner, either the Social Democrats with whom she governed already from 2005 to 2009 or, as a first in German history on a federal level, together with the Green Party.

The Social Democrats themselves seem rather opposed to another "Grand Coalition" with the CDU/CSU because that coalition brought them a disastrous result of only 23.0 % at the last federal election. At the same time, they are struggling with their chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück whose campaign was flawed and marred by several blunders. This is only the most recent one:

peer-steinbrueck-stinkefinger.jpg

That was a picture for the "Don't say a word" interview series of the "Süddeutsche Zeitung Magazin" where the interview partners have to answer questions by gestures or mimics. Steinbrück flipped the bird in response to the question, "'Blunder Peer', 'Problem Peer', 'Peerlusconi' - you don't have to worry about nice nick names, do you?". Of course his response was tongue in cheek, but could you imagine Barack Obama, David Cameron or Dilma Rousseff flipping the bird publicly, let alone only a few days before the election?

So how do you abroad perceive this German election? Is it a topic in your media at all? Which party would you like to see winning, especially in the light of the Euro crisis in which Germany played a vital role, preaching austerity to other EU member countries while spending money quite happily itself?

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I for my part am hoping for a leftish coalition of social democrats, socialists and greens. Decades of neoliberal policy have ruined this country: The Germany of today is massively overaged and poverty in old age increases, a vastly growing low-wage sector ruins our internal market making us an easy target during GFCs, our "Energiewende" (including the closure af our nuclear power plants until 2022 and a third of electricity to be preduced from renewable resources in 2030), while currently struggling of a massively outdated power grid, might become a real danger for our energy intensive (heavy) industry and Merkel wrecks the social systems across the continent due to enormous austerity while there seems to be plenty of money ready to help out banks and hedge funds that were too incompetent to understand that higher interest means higher risk.

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That was a picture for the "Don't say a word" interview series of the "Süddeutsche Zeitung Magazin" where the interview partners have to answer questions by gestures or mimics. Steinbrück flipped the bird in response to the question, "'Blunder Peer', 'Problem Peer', 'Peerlusconi' - you don't have to worry about nice nick names, do you?".

Well, we should talk about the "triangle of lvst", the famous body language hand sign of Angie, too ;)

I think it will become very close - I know my, which parties/party I will give my two votes for a long time - I think it will be a very interesting evening next week...

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The Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of Angela Merkel's CDU, has won the absolute majority of seats in the new Bavarian Landtag (regional parliament), as expected, with 49 % of the vote. They had to govern in a coalition government with the liberal FDP for the last five years, which was unusual for Bavaria where absolute majorities for the CSU are actually the normal case. Now the "old order" has been restored in Bavaria, so to speak - sadly. I think it did Bavaria and especially the CSU well that the state wasn't under control of only one party anymore. The CSU governs Bavaria for an uninterrupted 56 years now!

The FDP, meanwhile has failed to pass the five percent threshold in Bavaria, reached 3 % and therefore will have to leave the regional parliament. They will now fight for votes from CDU/CSU supporters in next week's federal election in order to remain in the Bundestag and the federal government.

The Social Democrats gained only slightly and apparently only reached about 20 %. The Greens were surprisingly weak with only about 8 %. And the Leftists have failed massively with only about 2 %. So those aren't very happy news for the opposition either.

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Do you think, if everything seems to go as planned out of Bavaria, that Merkel could possibly end up lasting as long as chancellor like the previous CDU/CSU chancellor leader Helmut Kohl? I'm hopeful for more of a leftist coalition at the federal level in the Bundestag of the SPD, Die Grunen, and Die Linke (PDS) to strongly rival Merkel's CDU for many of the reasons Munichfan sites. If I were a German voter, I'd be more concerned with the issues and their plans for them and less on the tongue in cheek flipping off in the leadup to Wahl 2013. Though there are serious flaws. We're more concerned about the Syria issue here and the economy, for examples.

I'll probrably add Stephen Harper, Enrique Pinto, Tony Abbott, John Key, Jacob Zuma, Jens Stoltenberg, Ian Khama (Botswana), and Abe as ones you can't imagine flipping off too. Putin and Robert Mugabe, yeah. Especially Mugabe after his statement to those who supported MDC's Morgan Tshvangarai after Mugabe's ZANU-PF won again ("All those who who supported the opposition can now go hang yourselves or commit suicide.").

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The voting in the federal election and the regional election in Hesse is underway - polls close at 6 p.m. CET, that is 1:45 hours from now. And it seems that this election sees a significantly higher turnout than the election four years ago. That perhaps gives a little bit of hope for the Social Democrats who still have a large voter potential to mobilise.

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The expansions show right now:

CDU/CSU 42%

SPD 26%

FDP 4,4%

Left 8%

Greens 8%

AfD 4,9%

a party needs 5% to be in the Bundestag - majority of seats 304

It will become a long exciting evening, since

CDU/CSU has nearly the majority of seats (303 seats)

FDP is in the current government and it seems that the party won't be in parliament anymore (the first time in the times of the Federal Republic of Germany)

SPD/Greens/Lefts have nearly the majority of seats (303 seats) [but the SPD doesn't want to form a government with the Left]

The anti-Euro (currency) party of AfD might come into parliament and everything would change


an expansion was just show, in which the CDU/CSU has a majority of 304 seats...

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Those results (and the two glasses of red wine I had ;)) make me feel a bit dizzy. The German voters have become very volatile, they are more willing than ever before to brutally punish parties which didn't deliver in their view - and on the other hand, to reward certain politicians (and less their parties) with great results, as in Merkel's case now.

The formation of the new government will be very interesting now, although I don't really expect any other coalition than the "Grand Coalition" of CDU/CSU and SPD. But the SPD will probably try to make their entrance into the government as expensive as possible. They suffered badly in the 2009 election, after the last Grand Coalition, and they will probably try everything to avoid a repetition of that. It's bad enough for the Social Democrats now that they had such rather weak gains in this election, despite weak Greens and not extremely strong Leftists.

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I hope that there is no CDU/CSU majority - it would be a disaster for LGBT-rights...

The "Grand Coalition" (CDU/CSU with SPD) would be the most stable one

The "red-red-green-coalition" (SPD, Left and Greens) could be still possible too, but the SPD doesn't want to form a government with the Left (that has historical reasons)

The most interesting coalition would be "black/green" (CDU/CSU and Greens)

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I hope that there is no CDU/CSU majority - it would be a disaster for LGBT-rights...

Very true. But the hope is that the CDU/CSU would have a majority of maybe only one seat. Even if Angela Merkel said otherwise - she just won't dare to govern with such a tiny majority. Especially not with all the difficult decisions probably yet to come in the Euro crisis.

Plus: Such a CDU/CSU majority government would stand absolutely no chance in the second chamber of parliament, the Bundesrat. They could only rely on the six votes of the CSU majority government in Bavaria there - but they need 35 to get a majority. If they have all other parties in the German states against them, they surely won't ever get near that majority.

I very much hope that the (probable) Grand Coalition will bring a change also for LGBT rights. It's about time that in the year 2013, in an increasingly tolerant German society, homosexual partnerships gain absolute legal equality with heterosexual partnerships.

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And this is the official provisional result of the federal election in Germany:

CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats) 41.5 %

SPD (Social Democrats) 25.7 %

The Left (Socialists) 8.6 %

The Greens 8.4 %

FDP (Liberals) 4.8 %

AfD (Euro Sceptics) 4.7 %

Pirates 2.2 %

Others 4.0 %

Turnout 71.5 %

That means: The liberal FDP, Angela Merkel's coalition partners for the last four years, have failed to pass the 5 % threshold and will have to leave the federal parliament for the first time in German post-war history. The Euro sceptics of the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland - Alternative for Germany) also narrowly failed to pass that threshold.

Now only four factions will be represented in the federal parliament: CDU/CSU, SPD, Leftists and Greens. The latter three theoretically have a narrow majority but won't form a government because of political incompatibilities. So it's most probable that CDU/CSU and SPD will form the new government under the leadership of Angela Merkel, the same kind of government that governed from 2005 to 2009. Rather improbable is that CDU/CSU and Greens will form the new government instead.

This was really an election that shook up German politics, even if it looks as if nothing has changed in general, since Angela Merkel will remain Chancellor. The fact that the FDP will now become an extraparliamentary party could seriously harm that party's self-esteem and identity, since it not only was part of the federal parliament in all those 64 years since 1949, but also was part of the national governments for 45 of those 64 years. There were times when they were practically indispensable for the formation of government. And now it has come to this, unexpected to many since all opinion polls before the election showed them at 5 % or more and it was widely expected that CDU/CSU voters would give their so-called "secondary vote" to the FDP in order to secure their remaining in parliament.

The CDU/CSU has the best result since 1994 when Helmut Kohl was Chancellor, the SPD has the second-worst result in its post-war history on the federal level. The Greens are even weaker than originally expected - you must bear in mind that they had up to 25 % in the opinion polls shortly after the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. Their chances were harmed by a loss of the "anti-nuclear momentum", controversial tax plans in their election platform and an ongoing discussion about pedophiles who were politically active in the party in its early history in the 1980s. The Leftists, the successors of the GDR state party SED, become the third-largest party in Germany for the first time and therefore would provide the leader of the opposition against a Grand Coalition government. Plus: The good AfD result shows that Euro scepticism has to be taken seriously in Germany. You must bear in mind that the AfD was founded only a few months ago.

So, after all, that allegedly most boring of all German federal elections has turned out to be a very interesting one.

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