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Sir Rols, if you voted for Madrid in the first round, there is a high likelihood that precisely you don't want to maximize the chances for European Olympics in 2024.

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MADRID 2028, MADRID 2032, MADRID 2036, MADRID 2040, MADRID 2044.....

I wouldn't be surprised. But if the competition is heavy, like is already being mentioned after this 2020 Asian win, then they better think long & hard if they really want to go through all of thi

"Thank you for your $50 million bid fee, here is your diploma."

Will some members vote for Tokyo annoyed that Istanbul knocked them out or vote for Istanbul because Tokyo had more :o

I don't believe it will be that petty. It will be more geopolitical.

Consider: If you're a North American angling for 2024 and you voted for Madrid, you're obviously going to change your vote to Istanbul rather than Tokyo, because it will increase your chances at 2024.

If you're European and you voted for Madrid, you're more likely to switch to Istanbul than Tokyo because it's European.

If you're Asian and you voted for Madrid, you're very unlikely to suddenly favor Tokyo.

The question comes with African and South American supporters of Madrid. Where do they turn? It's kind of anybody's guess. Africans may be more likely to turn to Tokyo if they're pulling for Durban, but this is kind of stupid because Durban is going to win no matter what as soon as they come up with a decent bid. South Americans, I really don't know. At that point I suppose it comes down to which bid you like better. Many of the Rio supporters on GB seemed to feel some solidarity with Istanbul because it is also a new frontier of sorts. Perhaps that carries over to the IOC, perhaps not.

Unless Tokyo had a big lead on the first ballot, I think Istanbul's chances are decent.

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I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over.

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Sir Rols, if you voted for Madrid in the first round, there is a high likelihood that precisely you don't want to maximize the chances for European Olympics in 2024.

But Madrid out now is exactly what gives Europe a better chance in 24. So they would have ben in the minority anyway.

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Simple self-interest, surely, would dictate that a lot of madrid backers will move their votes to Tokyo to maximise Europe's chances for 2024.

Why wouldn't they want a European games as soon as possible by choosing Istanbul? Sure it wouldn't be a traditional European site like London or Paris or Rome, but its still an Olympics in Europe. Maybe there will be division within Europe, with Western European members preferring what you just brought up and the rest of the European members having different agendas?

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I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over.

I wish it were always that simple and altruistic, but it's not. At least, not until recently. You cannot tell me people honestly believed the best interests of the athletes were served by sending them to Beijing over Toronto. If that were true, why did Beijing not win the 2000 vote over Sydney? And what about the speculated punitive action in electing Torino over Sion?

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I disagree. I think many votes from the Americas will move from Madrid to Istanbul, to further the chance of a North American bid in 2024.

I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over.

North American votes are only 5 and I am sure two of them were already in Istanbul's court and 1 (Pound) was voting for Tokyo.

I think there is some basis to the continental blocks but there are outliers. I think many African votes supported Istanbul, but someone like Ramsamy or el Moutawakel who do vote on technical merit. Whereas someone like Duke Henri or Albert or Frederick may also vote based on personal relationships.

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I don't believe it will be that petty. It will be more geopolitical.

The question comes with African and South American supporters of Madrid. Where do they turn? It's kind of anybody's guess.

Well, Brazil did a lot of political lobby in Africa, Asia, Arab countries and East Europe to gain support for Rio 2016. I do suppose Madrid got mostly from the South American votes and those votes can migrate to Istanbul more easily than to Tokyo. Even Brazil has more ties to Turkey now giving the issues of new emerging economies. But lets see... its difficult to say anything without knowing the numbers from the first ballot.

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Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia.

In the background Tokyo has said this will be their last bid for awhile.

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Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia.

I could see 2028 going to Melbourne/ Sydney/ Shanghai

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