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Clearly fake,

The few details released by the bid show temporary arenas being built next to the IBC/MPC, and these are not on that list.

Exactly, here is the map:

152541.jpg

In my opinion, pavillon 5 could be the shooting venue because there is an existing shooting center exactly at this place.

(this center renewal could be a legacy of the games).

1, 2 and 4

It seems pavillons 1, 2 and 4 are temporary pavillons (pink) and pavillon 3 seems to be permanent (red).

So, if we don't consider pavillon 5 (shooting), it makes 9 arenas for indoor sports:

2 in arena 92

Bercy arena

Halle carpentier

Grand Palais

4 pavillons at le Bourget.

Is that enough? (there are 11 arenas for Tokyo 2020)

maybe, the Zenith (concert hall) could be added to this list?

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Yea mountain biking is one of those events where having it within city limits should not be obligated. I can't imagine it's worth it to warp your parks or what-not to even meet the demand of such an event. That's costly and unnecessary. I'm sure there are surrounding areas that have landscape suitable enough to have the event.

then, I would propose Chamonix! ;)

(reference to the Chamonix 1924 winter games)

152793.jpg

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Paris has always been the leading favorite for all this, despite Hamburg's withdrawal. Although, I will say that Hamburg did present the only credible European threat to Paris' campaign. This outcome I say, though, only really fuels the idea now that the IOC really NEEDS Europe moreso (than ever before), than Europe needs the IOC. I'd say that all roads definitely lead to Paris 2024 now.

With the latest Hamburg withdrawal, the three (unprecedented) preceding Games all being held in Asia, Europe never going more than two-cycles without a Summer Olympics, South America slated to host their very first Games next year, & South Africa staying out of the picture 'til at least the 2032 campaign, the IOC would be shooting itself in the foot big time if they deny Paris a fourth time, IMHO. Los Angeles would be there again to fight for 2028. Paris & now Germany, would not.

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Paris has always been the leading favorite for all this, despite Hamburg's withdrawal. Although, I will say that Hamburg did present the only credible European threat to Paris' campaign. This outcome I say, though, only really fuels the idea now that the IOC really NEEDS Europe moreso (than ever before), than Europe needs the IOC. I'd say that all roads definitely lead to Paris 2024 now.

With the latest Hamburg withdrawal, the three (unprecedented) preceding Games all being held in Asia, Europe never going more than two-cycles without a Summer Olympics, South America slated to host their very first Games next year, & South Africa staying out of the picture 'til at least the 2032 campaign, the IOC would be shooting itself in the foot big time if they deny Paris a fourth time, IMHO. Los Angeles would be there again to fight for 2028. Paris & now Germany, would not.

I don't think Paris' front runner status has been damaged by this. it might be bolstered actually. I kind of agree with a poster in another thread that said that the climate with this cycle is giving me a feeling LA might sneak in and take it in the end but that is not the point of this. You said you thought LA would bid again for 2028, do you really think so? I mean the USOC didn't do it in 2020 because of the relationship with the IOC and if they lost 2024 it would be harder to convince any US city to bid so soon after 3 losses no? I personally think if LA loses this one they the USOC won't be bidding for a while again.

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You said you thought LA would bid again for 2028, do you really think so? I mean the USOC didn't do it in 2020 because of the relationship with the IOC and if they lost 2024 it would be harder to convince any US city to bid so soon after 3 losses no? I personally think if LA loses this one they the USOC won't be bidding for a while again.

I do think so. The USOC didn't bid for 2020 bcuz the 2016 (first-round) loss was a much more unexpected result than was anticipated. Plus, throw in the immediately preceding 2012 loss & the USOC was at its tail-end. Not to mention the revenue-sharing deal between the IOC & the USOC (which was also part of what undermined their 2016 bid) was still not yet resolved by the time the 2020 bid application dealine was due. So it made absolutely no sense to try & go for 2020 when the USOC was still trying to figure out how their relationship with the IOC got so sour in the first place.

Now fast forward eight years later, the revenue sharing deal has been dealt with, much to the IOC's favor, & you have a city that has always been there, even in the domestic phase, of wanting to bid. I don't see that changing with an L.A. 2024 loss. Especially if they were to finish runner-up to Paris, so unlike the 2016 finish (& which I believe was yet another layer of why the USOC didn't wanna go for 2020). I could easily the USOC wanting a second go this time around.

OTHO, I don't see Paris, nor any other major European contender for that matter, coming back for 2028. The IOC would be better off gambling with the Americans in that regard, their odds would be much better with that one.

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The question was about Lyon: If the sailing is in Marseille why not have mountain biking near Lyon?

And Chamonix is near Lyon (and closer than Marseille)

YOU said Chamonix, YOU didn't say Lyon. So that's what my 400 miles was about.

And Paris and Lyon are less than 300 miles away, that's closer, but not by much lol

The mountain biking venue area really shouldn't be more than a few miles away, at most it shouldn't be farther than the around 80 miles that the mountain biking venue for London in 2012 was. All you need is a hilly terrain, and that shouldn't be too hard to find anywhere much closer to Paris!

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I do think so. The USOC didn't bid for 2020 bcuz the 2016 (first-round) loss was a much more unexpected result than was anticipated. Plus, throw in the immediately preceding 2012 loss & the USOC was at its tail-end. Not to mention the revenue-sharing deal between the IOC & the USOC (which was also part of what undermined their 2016 bid) was still not yet resolved by the time the 2020 bid application dealine was due. So it made absolutely no sense to try & go for 2020 when the USOC was still trying to figure out how their relationship with the IOC got so sour in the first place.

Now fast forward eight years later, the revenue sharing deal has been dealt with, much to the IOC's favor, & you have a city that has always been there, even in the domestic phase, of wanting to bid. I don't see that changing with an L.A. 2024 loss. Especially if they were to finish runner-up to Paris, so unlike the 2016 finish (& which I believe was yet another layer of why the USOC didn't wanna go for 2020). I could easily the USOC wanting a second go this time around.

OTHO, I don't see Paris, nor any other major European contender for that matter, coming back for 2028. The IOC would be better off gambling with the Americans in that regard, their odds would be much better with that one.

That makes sense. However. I kind of think that if 2024 goes to LA then Europe is more likely guaranteed 2028 cause the time from a European games would be even that much longer. I agree Paris might not be as enthused to do so again but their chances of winning would be even greater then, not that it isn't super high now I am just saying. You're right LA is always there trying to get the opportunity to bid but now that they have that opportunity if they were to lose the excitement to bid again might be diminished. remember besides the few of us who follow the bid politics, the average person who votes in a referendum like initiative don't know about the rev sharing deal and the previously cold relationship the USOC had with the IOC. They just see NYC lost, Chicago lost and LA lost I think it would be hard to convince the people of LA to bid again for 2028. Kind of like what happened with Chicago. You couldn't tell those people that the climate was different this time to consider a bid.

To be honest I think the IOC is in a good place either way. if neither returns next cycle, Australia has already positioned themselves to bid. I'm sure other European cities will come forward without a juggernaut like Paris in the mix if they decide against it. So I guess to add to your point I think both will say no to a second consecutive bid if they lost.

Another question to you all.. How important do you think Paris' handling of the 2016 Euro Cup would be in the decision making process for 2024 as it pertains to security and terrorism. We know they can put on the event and though terrorism can happen anywhere in the world but in light of the recent attacks and the widening network of terror cells throughout Europe, what are your thoughts on Euro 2016 being a deal breaker for Paris? As and IOC member would it play a major factor in your mind or would Paris' track record be enough to convince you of their ability to provide safer games?

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That makes sense. However. I kind of think that if 2024 goes to LA then Europe is more likely guaranteed 2028 cause the time from a European games would be even that much longer. I agree Paris might not be as enthused to do so again but their chances of winning would be even greater then, not that it isn't super high now I am just saying. You're right LA is always there trying to get the opportunity to bid but now that they have that opportunity if they were to lose the excitement to bid again might be diminished. remember besides the few of us who follow the bid politics, the average person who votes in a referendum like initiative don't know about the rev sharing deal and the previously cold relationship the USOC had with the IOC. They just see NYC lost, Chicago lost and LA lost I think it would be hard to convince the people of LA to bid again for 2028. Kind of like what happened with Chicago. You couldn't tell those people that the climate was different this time to consider a bid.

Umm, well, the same can be said that if Paris wins 2024, then North America is more likely guaranteed 2028 since it would also be that much longer since North Amerca hosted. And with Asia, South America & Europe outta the way (& South Africa not making a commitment 'til at least 2032), the door would be WIDE open for a U.S. bid.

Like you also said, besides the few of us here that follow these things to the minute of details, another Parisian loss would be absolutely devastating to the average Frenchmen. And they won't see that their chances would be greater for 2028 since it would be an even longer gap for Europe by then. All they'll see is, "we lost not only once. Not only twice. And not only thrice, but FOUR times! The IOC just doesn't want us." It would be extremely hard then, if not impossible, to convince the Parisian citizenry & politicians to try yet a fifth time. Remember, it wasn't a walk in the park for Paris to come out & play this time around after a twelve-year hiatus. And if L.A. (& the USOC) were to shy away, Toronto can just swoop in & take that *ripe* North American 2028 spot then, since they would be fresh & well-rested from the last time that they bid.

Another question to you all.. How important do you think Paris' handling of the 2016 Euro Cup would be in the decision making process for 2024 as it pertains to security and terrorism. We know they can put on the event and though terrorism can happen anywhere in the world but in light of the recent attacks and the widening network of terror cells throughout Europe, what are your thoughts on Euro 2016 being a deal breaker for Paris? As and IOC member would it play a major factor in your mind or would Paris' track record be enough to convince you of their ability to provide safer games?

I believe too much is being made outta this, especially those that would just like to use this against Paris. The Olympic Games are a terrorist target no matter where they are held (Let's not forget how high on the todem pole the U.S. is on these terror group lists. Let's also keep in mind the last time the U.S. hosted we had a pipe bomb incident). It would've made no difference if they're held in Hamburg, Paris, Rome or L.A. They all would be targets.

London, being right in Europe, managed to deliver a safe 2012 Games. And even Athens, right at the doorstep of the Middle East, managed to do the same in 2004. I see L.A. being no worse or safer than Paris would be come 2024. I see another set of roof-top missles on top of buildings & tanks on standby, & a 'ring of steel' no matter who host the 2024 Games.

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Same here I was rooting for Hamburg, and even though I'm American I would hate to see another Los Angeles bid. So Paris it is!

I just want to remind you all of the 2022 bid race, when the population of Munich 2022's bid region said no as well: Many of us thought that Oslo now had the Games in its bag. You know how the story ended.

I already didn't share the "Now Paris has to bid more than ever and now its chances of winning are higher than ever" sentiment after the Paris terrorist attacks. And now I doubt even more that France, which has so many problems to face currently (not only the terror threat but also the rise of Front National and the demise of the current government, the never-ending economical and debt crisis, the ever-growing gridlock that prevents the country from taking necessary economical and social reforms), will take the news from Hamburg lightly.

I would even go as far as saying that the IOC can call itself lucky if it still can make a real choice for the 2024 Games in the end. I see growing opposition now, maybe even in rather authoritarian regimes like Hungary.

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That makes sense. However. I kind of think that if 2024 goes to LA then Europe is more likely guaranteed 2028 cause the time from a European games would be even that much longer.

Remind me how well that worked for 2022 with the "guaranteed" European host,

I think it may not be that clear from a North American perspective how the climate about hosting is in (continental) Europe right now. No bid that had to go through some sort of public approval has made it to the vote since the 2018 race.

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Remind me how well that worked for 2022 with the "guaranteed" European host,

I think it may not be that clear from a North American perspective how the climate about hosting is in (continental) Europe right now. No bid that had to go through some sort of public approval has made it to the vote since the 2018 race.

The question remains whether a referendum is such a smart idea in the first place, especially if the question is a catch-all proposition that invites naysayers to object for the most inane reasons. A specific question, with a specific figure would have been more useful. For example, it could have looked like this:

"Do you agree that the City of Hamburg shall be permitted to spend up to X billion euros on hosting the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, in the event it is awarded this event by the International Olympic Committee?"

That might have been a better approach...alas, we shall never know.

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I just want to remind you all of the 2022 bid race, when the population of Munich 2022's bid region said no as well: Many of us thought that Oslo now had the Games in its bag. You know how the story ended.

I already didn't share the "Now Paris has to bid more than ever and now its chances of winning are higher than ever" sentiment after the Paris terrorist attacks. And now I doubt even more that France, which has so many problems to face currently (not only the terror threat but also the rise of Front National and the demise of the current government, the never-ending economical and debt crisis, the ever-growing gridlock that prevents the country from taking necessary economical and social reforms), will take the news from Hamburg lightly.

On the other hand, all the four contenders have faced similar issues. Italy has a worse economic crisis, with a deep hole in public debt and a growning inestability in government, USA had recently a series of urban riots and violence related to the integration of minorities, USA and Italy are also terrorist threats and all the four countries have seen the rise of nationalistic politicians/parties in the public light.

If we stop waiting for ideal times, there won't be enough spaces, especially in a globalized world with mutual problems.

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Sure, especially Italy is a weak(ened) contender, regarding its political and economical problems, as well. But I think that compared to the USA, France's current problems are particularly grave. They'll even have some very difficult presidential and parliamentary elections only weeks before the 2024 host city election, with most probably a change of power and Front National probably making massive inroads. Okay, the US could have a president named Donald Trump by that time (just kidding - hopefully...), but that's a different matter. ;)


But leaving the current problems aside: The main point I was trying to make is that Hamburg sends an important message to all in France, the US, Italy and Hungary who already had or might start to have concerns about their countries hosting the 2024 Games. And Paris, which had to swallow a particularly big amount of worrying news in recent times, could be particularly sensitive to those news.

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I don't think it'd be just Paris sensitive to those issues. Let's keep in mind that some of the Boston no-campainers went to Hamburg to assist in it's "nolympia" campaign. So I'm sure that they'd also be happy to try & help any "no" coalition trying to form in L.A. Let's also remember that had the Boston 2024 bid went on, they would've also faced their own referendum next year & more than likely would've failed as well.

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I don't think it'd be just Paris sensitive to those issues. Let's keep in mind that some of the Boston no-campainers went to Hamburg to assist in it's "nolympia" campaign. So I'm sure that they'd also be happy to try & help any "no" coalition trying to form in L.A. Let's also remember that had the Boston 2024 bid went on, they would've also faced their own referendum next year & more than likely would've failed as well.

Essentially, a bunch of naysayers who cared less about what was good for Boston and harbour a more pathological dislike for the Olympic Games in general...

Fully agreed with the notion that others face similar problems: Budapest can be safely counted out, as Hungary has increasingly turned into an authoritarian dictatorship which violates human rights left, right and centre. Rome is also a non-starter, regardless of the delusions that Italian politicians may have: the city is deep in debt and had to be bailed out by the central government - Italy itself is suffering from an equally debt-and deficit-ridden, sluggish economy and a crumbling infrastructure. Let's also not forget that Italy has become the main gateway (besides Greece) for the scores of refugees arriving from the Middle East - so, dealing with all of that will be a tall order. Plus, Italy has recently hosted an Olympic Games (Turin 2006), which makes the Rome bid even more baffling.

Paris and LA appear to be the two iconic candidates with the best chance of winning this one - it depends, though, on what the IOC places its emphasis. If it's about security and beautiful coastal scenery, then LA has the edge. If it's about symbolism, a beautiful city and a theme of Olympic redemption after three failed bids, then it's Paris. Both are known the world over, both would host excellent Olympic Games.

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Budapest can be safely counted out, as Hungary has increasingly turned into an authoritarian dictatorship which violates human rights left, right and centre.

Since when do such regimes stand no chance in IOC host city elections? :D

Budapest sure is a weak candidate also in the eyes of the IOC, but most probably not for political reasons.

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One chance of the Paris bid is that France remains a monarchy and as long as the President supports the bid there should be no serious challenge to it. I have checked and I am not even sure that such a local referendum could legally be organized. I have seen the mention of elections in 2017 but the most likely outcome is that our current center left president (Hollande) will be replaced by a center right president (Juppé or Sarkozy). All three are known people, two are or have been President and one has been Prime Minister and I would not expect a surprise from any of them.

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