Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

This thread is now unreadable.

Rendering of the Olympic stadium (stade de France) and the aquatic center. 

Because Baron.

RSA came in #3 in the 2004 race, .

That's correct... they came in 3rd. Not first, 3rd. And they almost came in last. Like new-frontier Istanbul, they had to win a runoff to get out of the first round.

Sure, Durban (or Cape Town 2024) could win. But some people here vastly overestimate the IOC's eagerness to actually vote for new-frontier towns. Based on past history, a city would be crazy to sit out because they are convinced an RSA bid is an automatic winner.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on past history, a city would be crazy to sit out because they are convinced an RSA bid is an automatic winner.

Well, they do want to see some sort of a race. And the IOC is too chicken-sh*t to not tell a city to waste its time or money. So all suckas are welcome.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on past history, a city would be crazy to sit out because they are convinced an RSA bid is an automatic winner.

Yet when/if South Africa were to win by a landslide, then as usual afterwards, people will complain - "why did the IOC just waste everyone's time & money then if they knew all along that they wanted South Africa". Just like they did with Beijing, Rio & PyeongChang won. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This idea that Paris shouldn't bid if Durban bids for is complete and utter.. well, it's this...

polls_Image_2B_3D_2BBull_2BShit_2B2_4257

Durban may well be the favorite for 2024 (or 2028 if that's what they wait for), but it is far from a done deal that they're automatically going to win on their first shot. I don't care how much the IOC chirps about wanting to go to Africa. Put Durban up against a major world city like Paris and let's see how badly the IOC wants to go to Africa. This notion all South Africa needs is a semi-credible bid and they'll get it on the first shot, as if they're too smart to fail, is ridiculous. I don't buy the theory that the RSA folks are that good all tehy need to do is enter the race and they can't possibly lose.


Yet when/if South Africa were to win by a landslide, then as usual afterwards, people will complain - "why did the IOC just waste everyone's time & money then if they knew all along that they wanted South Africa". Just like they did with Beijing, Rio & PyeongChang won. Hindsight is always 20/20.

If that does happen (key word: 'if'), I know what the rhetoric will be here.. we'll all compare it to the 1992 bid where Barcelona couldn't be beaten and JAS encouraged competition from other cities to enter just to give the impression that Barcelona didn't already have it in the bag. So yes, that type of situation has definitely happened before. Not sure it will be history repeating with Durban though.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Put Durban up against a major world city like Paris and let's see how badly the IOC wants to go to Africa.

Well, for starters Paris has to bid, don't they. And it's not a given that they will at this point anyway. I've said all along that an African Olympics is going to be all about bringing the Olympics for the first time to Africa rather than it being about some "major world city". If that's an argument that some of South Africa's competition is going to use, then they're in for a rude awakening.

You don't have to "buy" into the theory that all South Africa has to do is present a credible bid or that you don't care how much the IOC is "chirping" about wanting to go to Africa. But one would have to be extremely foolish not to see the compelling factors in such a candidacy to woo the IOC in the first place. It's a hypothesis that some of us can make based on certain things, just like what we constantly do in the USA 2024 thread. So you constantly berating everyone's opinion on the matter makes you no better than a certain you-know-who when it comes to some of these discussions. You don't have to agree. But some of us don't we have to agree with you either.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, for starters Paris has to bid, don't they. And it's not a given that they will at this point anyway. I've said all along that an African Olympics is going to be all about bringing the Olympics for the first time to Africa rather than it being about some "major world city". If that's an argument that some of South Africa's competition is going to use, then they're in for a rude awakening.

Nor is it a given that Durban will bid for 2024. They have to bid too. And I'll refrain from giving the sarcastic response to that line that would only degrade this thread further. Although I will point out that a "major world city" just very comfortably defeated a bid pushing themselves as a new frontier, so I don't know what rude awakening you're expecting. I'm sure if Paris bids, they'll have more to go with than that, but it is worth noting.. they came within 4 votes of a win before. Clearly that had something to offer then. I imagine they could come up with something for 2024 that has a shot at enticing the IOC.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Although I will point out that a "major world city" just very comfortably defeated a bid pushing themselves as a new frontier, so I don't know what rude awakening you're expecting.

Different race, different dynamics. And you're predicting something based on "past precedent" that even you yourself have said one shouldn't do. Plus, it's at least arguable that Istanbul didn't offer as much of the new frontier factor that a South African bid would. Not to mention that Tokyo really won 2020 based mostly on that the other two bids had major defenciencies that the IOC really didn't wanna bother with. Otherwise, we would be talking about Istanbul 2020 right now instead.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Different race, different dynamics. And you're predicting something based on "past precedent" that even you yourself have said one shouldn't do. Plus, it's at least arguable that Istanbul didn't offer as much of the new frontier factor that a South African bid would. Not to mention that Tokyo really won 2020 based mostly on that the other two bids had major defenciencies that the IOC really didn't wanna bother with. Otherwise, we would be talking about Istanbul 2020 right now instead.

I'm not predicting anything. You're the one who seems to already have shaped the dynamics of the 2024 race and is making predictions (not to mention offering your alternate reality on 2020, as if that makes a difference)

Give Paris a little credit here. If they bid, they'll probably do it with something more than just being a major world city. Certainly they won't rely on that argument (or the 3rd time host or the centennial of 1924, for that matter since those both mean nothing) as their case to the IOC.

By the same token, what does South Africa offer other than being the first African Olympics? Is that enough to win, let alone win in a landslide regardless of who the competition is? Obviously some folks here think it is. I just think it's a little premature to say the 2024 race is decided and that nothing any other city does can change that pre-determined outcome.

Link to post
Share on other sites

But from what's come out...even by both discerning French and South African posters here...Paris couldn't care less about bidding again. It's only a core of "dreamy-eyed" Paris-supporters here (and I would not be saddened to see Paris host again anytime soon) who are saying Paris will bid again for '24; whereas we have not heard any "denials" from South Africa, and Dysan1, our one Durbanite here, has at least posted a news report that Durban is still on track in getting all its ducks in a row.

There are stronger chances of a USA 2024 bid happening than a Paris 2024 bid. But even the US move is dependent on South Africa's moves. But if cities want to be reckless and daring, that's their business.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not predicting anything. You're the one who seems to already have shaped the dynamics of the 2024 race and is making predictions (not to mention offering your alternate reality on 2020, as if that makes a difference)

Give Paris a little credit here. If they bid, they'll probably do it with something more than just being a major world city. Certainly they won't rely on that argument (or the 3rd time host or the centennial of 1924, for that matter since those both mean nothing) as their case to the IOC.

Isn't that what you're doing to, predicting the dynamics of the 2024 race when Paris hasn't even made a peep about bidding at this point in time. Unlike South Africa who has given early indicators that they could bid. I'll definitely give Paris credit if they bid, I think even moreso than you would give South Africa for. If anyone could trump the South Africans it could be Paris, IF they bid, which is far from a given yet.

And I'm not giving "alternate reality" on anything. Tokyo mainly won 2020 bcuz the IOC was looking for a safer choice in this race, given the tumultuous competition, versus it just being that Tokyo is a "major world city". And it's something that was reiterated by some senior IOC members. Even Tokyo 2020 knew who their main competition was, & why one of their team members was reprimanded by making under-handed comments about Istanbul. And I still say that it's safe to say that if it weren't for Istanbul's troubles late in the game, they'd be the ones that would've been victorious for 2020.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I put it in here because the theme of sigs & the idea of digging the thread up originated here. Now it's noticed, I suppose finding the thread again & bumping it would suffice, as it's in the 2012 forum.

In any case just to get back to topic, baron, what would you expect from an eventual Paris OC? Albertville on steroids I guess :eek:

Link to post
Share on other sites

I put it in here because the theme of sigs & the idea of digging the thread up originated here. Now it's noticed, I suppose finding the thread again & bumping it would suffice, as it's in the 2012 forum.

In any case just to get back to topic, baron, what would you expect from an eventual Paris OC? Albertville on steroids I guess :eek:

Yoshi, something French? ;):lol: Yoshi, too far ahead and again, that should be a thread all its own -- when the time is right. Let's keep this thread for discussion of whether Paris will bid or not.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Isn't that what you're doing to, predicting the dynamics of the 2024 race when Paris hasn't even made a peep about bidding at this point in time. Unlike South Africa who has given early indicators that they could bid. I'll definitely give Paris credit if they bid, I think even moreso than you would give South Africa for. If anyone could trump the South Africans it could be Paris, IF they bid, which is far from a given yet.

This point in time is less than 2 weeks after the election of the 2020 host. The deadline for applying for 2024 is still 2 years off. I know it's often a point of contention in the USA thread how early on a city has to register interest, but does it mean much of anything that South Africa has given early indicators (which they did in the lead up to 2020 as well) and France hasn't at this point? And isn't it what we're all trying to do.. predicting the dynamics of the 2024 race based on what's going to unfold in the next 2 years? I already said "if they bid" with regard to Paris. It's also far from a given that South Africa is going to bid as well.

Link to post
Share on other sites

While I can see Durban having a strong sentimental pull for 2024/28, the a strong and well considered US bid could be positioned to reveal weakness in the SA bid.

Durban should be careful not to go into a bid with an expectant swagger - it could go a similar way to Athens 1996.

Link to post
Share on other sites

While I can see Durban having a strong sentimental pull for 2024/28, the a strong and well considered US bid could be positioned to reveal weakness in the SA bid.

Durban should be careful not to go into a bid with an expectant swagger - it could go a similar way to Athens 1996.

Or Istanbul 2020.

I get the sense that South Africa is smarter than that though. I also get the sense that the IOC is willing to forgive them almost anything.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Durban should be careful not to go into a bid with an expectant swagger - it could go a similar way to Athens 1996.

I don't think that they'd be that presumptuous. I don't get that from the South Africans. Especially with the overly-cautious attitude that they're taking with this & refrained from 2020.

Lets keep in mind though, that Rio (& particularly Lula) wasn't exactly that humble over their candidacy. Yeah, they campaigned 'til the very end & had a compelling case, but some of things that was coming out of his mouth were borderline offensive & entitlement-like rhetoric.

That said, I still don't see the South Africans talking that type of approach. I think their ambivalence is actually their way to come out with a good strategy whenever they feel the time is right to mount an Olympic bid.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Selecting Tokyo for 2020 proved the IOC perhaps is going back to basics... No more nwe frontiers for a while, in Durban's case.

You really can't prove an IOC hosting "trend" on one result. Up until two weeks ago, many people here and in other media thought the "new frontiers" was the rule.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, but maybe it is going to happen... 2024 is going to Europe 12 years without hosting SOG out of Europe seems a lot of time. If that's the case 2028 race is open for SA, Oceania or North America (maybe China will try there -.- )

Link to post
Share on other sites

Selecting Tokyo for 2020 proved the IOC perhaps is going back to basics... No more nwe frontiers for a while, in Durban's case.

Not really. When push comes to shove, Tokyo was the only viable option in a small, weak field.

Istanbul could've had this if they'd run a better campaign, managed the protests better, maintained purer sport (i.e. no doping) and if the powder keg that is Syria wasn't their next door neighbor.

Much as I didnt want to admit it before the vote, Tokyo was the only choice for 2020.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, but maybe it is going to happen... 2024 is going to Europe 12 years without hosting SOG out of Europe seems a lot of time. If that's the case 2028 race is open for SA, Oceania or North America (maybe China will try there -.- )

That "...12 years w/o Europe..." is a myth now...just as "...no back-to-back Games for Asia (or anywhere else)" is. I think non-Euros make up maybe 45% of the IOC now (who wants to count?) and not all the Euros vote for an immediate Euro candidate becuz they have their own future axes to grind. So I think fear of every 3rd Games for Europe no longer is a rule these days. Geopolitics still work; but each race will be fought on its own dynamics and hopefully result in the best candidate of that race winning.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...