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LA will always try to bid, at least that's what the SCCOG is set upon.

But of course ultimately the decision is the USOC's. It's quite possible that if LA loses 2024, the USOC might want to sit out the Summer Games and concentrate on going for a Winter Olympics.

And of course there's always the possibility that if the USOC wants to pursue another Summer Games, they might not even pick LA as their candidate.

If the USOC wants to pursue a Winter Olympics, they'd have to start that process before the 2024 vote. Which makes it unlikely. No idea what the USOC would do if they go after the 2028 Olympics, whether or not the process starts from scratch in terms of finding a city or if they give LA the right of first refusal.

There is also the USA's 250th anniversary in 2026. Winter Olympics to start, then a World Cup in the summer? You can certainly do it, & it sounds like a great birthday party to me...

Sounds nice in theory. Do they want either or both events though? And there are 2 different "they"'s involved here, don't forget.

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There is also the USA's 250th anniversary in 2026. Winter Olympics to start, then a World Cup in the summer? You can certainly do it, & it sounds like a great birthday party to me...

Well, remember 46 years ago, that's exactly what the IOC did -- gave the USA a Bicentennial gift by awarding the Winter Games to Denver. But those Denver trolls and tree-huggers f*cked it all up for themselves and future generations. I doubt that the IOC would be so generous now. The USA will have to go for those two commemorative dates!! If the stupid USOC board had played their cards well, they should've gone for Winter 2022; and then Summer 2028 would've fallen right into their laps. But there are half-wits running the USOC for the last decade and a half.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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And indeed, after Games in South America, Asia, Europe, and no planned bid from Africa, where would the 2028 go? Be patient, my American/Canadian friends, your time will come (after such a loooooooooog wait) ^_^

Exactly. That should be a US/Canada bunfight (and what fun that would be on this forum). Throw in Durban 32 & the summer Olympics will have been to every continent since 2000. Perfect :)
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Still more important than what the USOC know, the IOC knows that alienating its strongest market might slap them in the face.

Well, only one city can win each time so you'll always "alienate" someplace, and the IOC has some wriggle room now that the US TV deal is signed up to 2032. As long as one of those three Games is on US soil I don't think there will be a major problem.

As far as I can see, the IOC can have its cake and eat it if LA is happy to bid for 2028, which Paris would be unlikely to do. USOC and LA will be acutely aware of this too.

As far as I can see LA's best chance of snagging an Olympics in the 2020s is for Paris to win 2024 giving LA an almost clear run at 2028.*

The second best chance LA has of getting a Games is if they claim during this bid cycle that they won't bid again for 2028. Then the IOC has a real conundrum.

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* Asia and certainly Europe will be out of the 2028 race if Paris wins 2024. And even if South Africa u-turns and does go for 2028, that bid could well be taken as a warm up for 2032 with the IOC wanting to see how the Commonwealth Games goes in 2022 before awarding them the Big O. c.f. Rio 2012.

Edited by Rob.
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Still more important than what the USOC know, the IOC knows that alienating its strongest market might slap them in the face.

That's why the IOC always signs a few Games ahead of what's going on, so it undercuts the USOC. And NBC-Comcast has been fed catnip by the IOC that it can't resist -- regardless of what the USOC may or may NOT do.

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Still more important than what the USOC know, the IOC knows that alienating its strongest market might slap them in the face.

Is it really alienating the USOC to pass them over for 2024? I don't believe that's actually true. There's always going to be 1 winner in a bid and everyone else goes home a loser. If you're talking about alienating the USOC, that's somewhat to imply it will affect their prospects for 2028. And oh yea, the competition could claim an entire continent in Europe. That's why you can't evaluate these bids in a vacuum as if LA is the only city and bid with circumstances attached and none of the others do.

Well, only one city can win each time so you'll always "alienate" someplace, and the IOC has some wriggle room now that the US TV deal is signed up to 2032. As long as one of those three Games is on US soil I don't think there will be a major problem.

As far as I can see, the IOC can have its cake and eat it if LA is happy to bid for 2028, which Paris would be unlikely to do. USOC and LA will be acutely aware of this too.

As far as I can see LA's best chance of snagging an Olympics in the 2020s is for Paris to win 2024 giving LA an almost clear run at 2028.*

The second best chance LA has of getting a Games is if they claim during this bid cycle that they won't bid again for 2028. Then the IOC has a real conundrum.

Exactly. It makes for nice rhetoric here, but I don't think the IOC voters are thinking along the lines of who will be the most or the least offended if they're not picked and choose that way. Paris doesn't need that element to make a strong case to be selected, just like the 100 year drought isn't necessary to their narrative either. Either way, the IOC doesn't really have the luxury of thinking ahead. They need to do what's best for 2024 and worry about 2028 later on.

And I completely agree about 2032 and the NBC deal. As long as they get one, it doesn't matter as much which one it is.

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But of course ultimately the decision is the USOC's. It's quite possible that if LA loses 2024, the USOC might want to sit out the Summer Games and concentrate on going for a Winter Olympics.

Like Quaker said, even if that were the case, the esrliest for that possibility would be 2030, cuz 2026 would get in the way of the 2024 Summer campaign. And this isn't the USOC of the 80's & 90's where they bid for both sets of a Games simultaneously. These days they're only focusing on one set of Games at a time. So the next opportunity in the event of a 2024 loss is a 2028 attempt, a Summer Olympics which the USOC wants the most of anyway than another Winter Games.

And of course there's always the possibility that if the USOC wants to pursue another Summer Games, they might not even pick LA as their candidate.

Well, who else could step in? New York, Chicago & San Francisco still seem highly unlikely at this point. And we all saw what just happened with the Boston effort. So as with 2024 in the end, L.A. is still the most likely candidate for 2028, too. Especially since the arguments now are "L.A. is 'best equipped' to handle the Olynpics than any other city" rhetoric. So I don't see that changing fot 2028, especially with the huge slap in the face the USOC received with the Boston fiasco. Very doubtful that they'll do that again. But then again, the USOC sometimes appears to never learn their lessons.

Exactly. That should be a US/Canada bunfight (and what fun that would be on this forum).

Oh, I know! I would just LUV so sit back with a bucket of popcorn & read those (inflammatory) posts & seriously just be a spectator of a bid campaign for a change! Almost makes me wish that Toronto did bid for 2024 & then we coulda seen these L.A. cheerleaders & Toronto suppertors FLAME it up!! Here's to 2028, though!! :-D

However in this century the SOGs has been in Europe twice, two times in Asia and 2 times south of the Equator...

Right, this argument is so flawed cause the two times they were south of the equator (which are still half a world away respectively from each other), Europe & Asia, they were all in *different* COUNTRIES. Last time I checked, the United States of America is only ONE *country*.

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IOC needs to show It's Europe's time. Deal with it.

Would you be saying this if it was Rome vs Toronto or Paris vs Toronto. Toronto has never hosted the Olympic Games obviously, so wouldn't that give the edge to them? And considering there hasn't been a North American summer Olympics this century and Europe has already hosted twice this century you can say it's North America's time too.
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That's also why all the talk in this thread about LA offering a "new model" is silly imho. An LA Games will show that Los Angeles can host the Games responsibly, but you won't necessarily be able to transfer what they're planning to smaller cities or those with fewer facilities.

Exactly. I mentioned earlier in the thread that the IOC isn't going to be able to rotate between cities like Paris & L.A. cuz they're the "most prepared". Most of all the other cities around the world that are Olympic worthy are still going to need some type of construction (see the USOC's first pick, Boston 2024). Eventfully, the IOC is going to have to return to places that are going to require more work.

The second best chance LA has of getting a Games is if they claim during this bid cycle that they won't bid again for 2028. Then the IOC has a real conundrum.

Let them. I'm sure the IOC would call their bluff. I don't believe the strategy "gives us the Games or we won't bid again" would work very well in the USOC's case. Didn't work for Athens 1996. And many already think that Americans are arrogant.

The USOC would be so stupid not to bid again for 2028 when the timing couldn't be more ripe for a North American Games all things considered. But then again, they haven't been too smart TBW these last couple of years. And if they were to foolishly refrain, I'm quite sure the Canadians would seize the opportunity, & the IOC I'm sure knows this.

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Would you be saying this if it was Rome vs Toronto or Paris vs Toronto. Toronto has never hosted the Olympic Games obviously, so wouldn't that give the edge to them? And considering there hasn't been a North American summer Olympics this century and Europe has already hosted twice this century you can say it's North America's time too.

No, because 2024 is not Toronto's time either. Canada last hosted in 2010, and 14 years is pretty soon for a country of that size. All signs point towards Europe in 2024.

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If the USOC wants to pursue a Winter Olympics, they'd have to start that process before the 2024 vote. Which makes it unlikely. No idea what the USOC would do if they go after the 2028 Olympics, whether or not the process starts from scratch in terms of finding a city or if they give LA the right of first refusal.

I was thinking maybe Winter 2030.

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It's possible, but they seem to be committed to going after a Summer Olympics and I don't think a loss in 2024 would alter their mindset on that one. Especially if the timing for 2028 finally seems favorable for the first time in a long time.

You never know; the USOC skipped bidding for 2020.

BTW I finally got reading through all pages of this thread and it was TEDIOUS. ¡Uuuu que la!

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The USOC skipped 2020 cause they were regrouping after their 2012 *&* their 2016 losses. 2020 at first, also had the potential to be more competitive & a more open race than 2028 would be if 2024 goes to Europe. Plus, the USOC & the IOC had still not come to a revenue-sharing deal yet (which was a sticking point in the 2016 campaign) when the 2020 bid dealine was due. None of those issues would be present for 2028. And the timing would be much more favorable. The only threat there could come from Canada.

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You never know; the USOC skipped bidding for 2020.

I was just going to say pretty much everything FYI just said. Many people here seem to think the USOC was so pissed off and insulted when Chicago lost that they chickened out of even trying for 2020. That's not the case. They needed to get their house in order - specifically the matter of the revenue deal - and start from scratch before bidding again. Granted, had the US known how thin the competition would be for 2020 and had they been able to work through a revenue deal earlier, maybe they would have tried again. But that's almost irrelevant to 2028. To say it happened then to imply it might happen now is a gross over-simplification that ignores the circumstances that created that situation in the first place.

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The USOC would be so stupid not to bid again for 2028 when the timing couldn't be more ripe for a North American Games all things considered. But then again, they haven't been too smart TBW these last couple of years. And if they were to foolishly refrain, I'm quite sure the Canadians would seize the opportunity, & the IOC I'm sure knows this.

Too true. Still surprised by the USOC overlooking 2020. Even before the candidates started to drop out, they would have stood a significant chance. Most US cities - perhaps even the second tier ones like Dallas or Philadelphia - would have stood a very good chance of landing 2020 over Tokyo and Istanbul,.

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I think BV stands head and shoulders above the other summer sports you named in terms of its games status. It's by far been the most successful "recent" sport added to the SOG roster. It's really stamped itself an a capital O rolled gold Olympic sport and one of the big games events. It's just made for TV, and is also burnishing a reputation as one of the more fun and popular to attend. It's definitely an A grade ticket to snare, not one of the minor sports to pick up to fill in gaps in your visit schedule.

it's also always freaking on tv, at all times always, which is a good way to fold your sport into the olympic brand. also helpful: the fact that athletes are sparsely attired and america is pretty awesome at it. (although water polo is always on, too, and the athletes are similarly half naked and nobody cares about that, so who knows.)

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Is it really alienating the USOC to pass them over for 2024? I don't believe that's actually true. There's always going to be 1 winner in a bid and everyone else goes home a loser. If you're talking about alienating the USOC, that's somewhat to imply it will affect their prospects for 2028. And oh yea, the competition could claim an entire continent in Europe. That's why you can't evaluate these bids in a vacuum as if LA is the only city and bid with circumstances attached and none of the others do.

And I completely agree about 2032 and the NBC deal. As long as they get one, it doesn't matter as much which one it is.

If the US bid city fares as poorly in the voting as NYC and Chicago did then, yes, that will alienate the USOC from the IOC again. But, I don't think that's going to happen with the 2024 voting. As long as LA finishes a respectable 2nd to Paris then the USOC nor LA are going to necessarily feel snubbed like they were, especially in 2016. There's no shame in losing to Paris in the final round of voting and that's what I fully expect will happen. Budapest will be out after the 1st round, then Roma will drop, and Paris will take it in the 3rd round of voting. It probably won't be as close as, say, London-Paris or Beijing-Almaty, because like many others here, I think this race is Paris' to lose. But, I do believe that LA has a very strong plan and there will be sufficient enough support for LA to get them to the final round of voting. I also suspect that there will be a fair bit of "please come back for the 2028 bidding" quiet remarks shared over drinks and behind closed doors to the USOC and the LA organizers, both before and after the vote.

I also completely agree that as long as the US is selected to host a SOG before 2032 then NBC, and the USOC, will be perfectly happy. NBC probably won't want to wait another 15 years (from the time the vote is taken in 2017) and I'd bet they also encourage the USOC and LA to bid again for 2028 should they lose the 2024 vote.

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(although water polo is always on, too, and the athletes are similarly half naked and nobody cares about that, so who knows.)

Well, they're all splashing around in the water; and you don't always know which head belongs to which torso.

that little tid bit of NBCUniversal Evolution (AKA LA24's IBC)

That's nothing. In fact, that's probably an imposition on the NBC-Universal's park operations. And I don't really see where they're going to try and fit that in the Universal/Burbank/Studio City area.

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