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GamesBids 2013 IOC Session Lotto/Final Predictions


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Since Barcelona has spent nearly all its history telling the rest of the world that it's not Spain, will 92 actually have less of an impact on Madrid?

About 100% of the people who perceive Barcelona as not Spanish live in Spain, so no.

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Host city winner: Istanbul First city voted out: Madrid and Tokyo How many voting rounds to decide the winner: one Which sport will be added: softball/baseball Who will be the new IOC president

a support from "the times" for istanbul http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article3861872.ece

I have been travelling all year so I haven't paid as much attention to this race as I usually do. Nevertheless, my recent week in Istanbul means I have now visited each of the candidate cities. So

Okay, with it now exactly a week till we know who'll be hosting the games in 2020, here's what expectations are so far.

Winning City

Istanbul 6

Madrid 8

Tokyo 15

First City Voted Out

Istanbul 15

Madrid 7

Tokyo 2

Number of Voting Rounds

One 4

Two 26

Sport to be Added

Baseball/Softball 5

Squash 0

Wrestling 25

New IOC President

Thomas Bach 22

Sergei Bubka 1

Dennis Oswald 3

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  • Host city winner (from Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo)

  • First city voted out (or city with lowest number of votes if decided in a single round) Istanbul

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner (minimum one, maximum three – which would only happen if there is a draw for bottom in the first round and a a tiebreak vote takes place to decide the first loser). Two

  • Which sport will be added (from baseball/softball, squash and wrestling) Wrestling

  • Who will be the new IOC president (from Thomas Bach, Denis Oswald, Sergey Bubka, Richard Carrion, Ser Miang Ng, and C.K. Wu) Bach

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Dont think for a moment that this image with the Madrid 2020 logo is real. I dont know if the person who posted the photo is the one who did it, but one have to be a really bad person to do that. At the end of the day, all these non sense attacks to Madrid seems to be because it is a real contender and it seems it bothers them.

And the funny thing is that the person who posted the picture is someone supporting Madrid. Wow, what a nice way to be a supporter, posting a place done by a fascist dictator like the image of Madrid. I dont want to insult anybody but sometimes it seems that homo sapiens brain evolution didnt go the same for everybody.

Two things:

1.- About respect:

You don't know me, you don't know my context, or my life, so don't talk about someone or something that simply you don't know, because this is really disrespectful. "I don't want to insult but..." + "very bad person" or "brain evolution didn't go the same for everybody" What lection are you trying to teaching?

2.- About heritage:

In the picture of my "signature" appears a monument "El Valle de los Caídos". This place is owned by the Spanish State through Patrimonio Nacional, in which money is spent each year, through all the taxes we pay. It is therefore an place considered for our country and also an architectural and sculptural heritage of high value. Its Basilica is consecrated by the Pope Juan XXIII, and actually is under restoration.

Conclusions

-So this heritage place is not only legal, but belongs to all of spaniards and moreover, is supported and promoted by the State. Accordingly don't try to show me as a degenerated only because your ideology or opinion, I'm legal.

-I didn't expect to discuss because of this pic, and I think this is not the forum.

As a Madrid's lover I encourage all of you to visit "El Valle de los Caídos" if someone travel to Madrid, together with "San Lorenzo del Escorial" (are very close) which well worth!

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I don't know if you have seen Madrid's last video, from July.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjS5APpurPA

It's really a good video. But the song is in English?!?!?!?!

Am I crazy or IOC requested songs in English for 2020 race?

Edited by DannyelBrazil
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Are you beginning to feel that there may be a surprise on Saturday because a few hysteric, Spanish trolls are saying that they got robbed in Istanbul five times in a week or do you know anything that we don't? :P

i dont know,but in media too spanish forcing Istanbul much more den tokyo, may be 1st round crises they r living. becomes like paris london duello at 2012.

im sure % 70 tokyo will win but % 30 is still Istanbul. and if ıstanbul can get the final voting; 50-50... it wont be a clear victory like rio or beijing

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For a long time I've had the impression that if Istanbul reached the final round they would win it right away either against Madrid or Tokyo, that's why I believe that both Tokyo and Madrid prefer to face each other in the final round and they may even plot together to prevent Istanbul from reaching the final. In a Tokyo vs Madrid final I don't see a clear winner, It just seems to me that neither of the two cities specially excite the IOC members.

I expect to see Madrid in the final, they've always had a strong base support which can be enough to get them easily into the final, and as for Tokyo and Istanbul... If Istanbul plays their cards well and intelligently and they arouse the necessary excitement in the IOC they might as well win the whole thing, however up till now I don't think that they have been intelligent/astute enough. If they pull a masterpiece of marketing and PR on Saturday (like Rio did) they can stand a very serious chance of winning.

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For a long time I've had the impression that if Istanbul reached the final round they would win it right away either against Madrid or Tokyo, that's why I believe that both Tokyo and Madrid prefer to face each other in the final round and they may even plot together to prevent Istanbul from reaching the final. In a Tokyo vs Madrid final I don't see a clear winner, It just seems to me that neither of the two cities specially excite the IOC members.

I expect to see Madrid in the final, they've always had a strong base support which can be enough to get them easily into the final, and as for Tokyo and Istanbul... If Istanbul plays their cards well and intelligently and they arouse the necessary excitement in the IOC they might as well win the whole thing, however up till now I don't think that they have been intelligent/astute enough. If they pull a masterpiece of marketing and PR on Saturday (like Rio did) they can stand a very serious chance of winning.

we got another map of 1,5billion muslim country:)

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Just wanted to make a little point because I'm not sure if it's been made clear. Madrid 2020 has not used the Valle de los Caídos for any official bid image. Actually, as far as I know, they have not used any monument on any official image with the logo to promote the bid.

But well, I don't want to restart the discussion so let's just leave that aside.

I don't know if you have seen Madrid's last video, from July.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjS5APpurPA

If there's something we should have no complaints about regarding Madrid's bid, that's the promotional videos. They've released lots of videos and of a very good quality in general. I particularly appreciate that they're showing Madrid with its Spanish essence but beyond stereotypes.

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Are you beginning to feel that there may be a surprise on Saturday because a few hysteric, Spanish trolls are saying that they got robbed in Istanbul five times in a week or do you know anything that we don't? :P

You call me troll and liar because I have other point of view that you. Realy, I think it's a forum with sense, but I can see that you don't respect other points of view. Your acts aren't very Olympic. I don't wanna write here anymore. I belived that this forum was democracy but I can see that not.

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spanish are playing on Istanbul very hard these days, i begin to feel there would be a suprise :)

I've noticed that, too. They also have jumped on the "radioactive" bangwagon as of late. Are they seeing this slipping away from them now. Obviously they seem to be very worried about the competition.

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You call me troll and liar because I have other point of view that you. Realy, I think it's a forum with sense, but I can see that you don't respect other points of view. Your acts aren't very Olympic. I don't wanna write here anymore. I belived that this forum was democracy but I can see that not.

1.Troll: One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument.

First, don't expect me to enter into concatenation of accussive and inculpatory posts, this will be the first and last I will write.

Second, you don't know me, I don't know you, therefore don't go accusing me of not respecting other's points of view or not having an "Olympic behavior" and other horsecrap, because you have never, ever crossed any words or had any conversation with me, I may not be an authority on this forum, I have posted a measle 40 posts, but I have always tried to give a developed and reasoned opinion as to why I think so, something which you have NEVER done in here, you just merely attack other the other bids from the one you support, giving NO kind of argument or reasoning, just basing on whether one city ought to organize the OG or not based on your (bad) personal experience.

And thirdly, do not expect to have your opinion taken seriously here and not being accused and don't be surprised of being a troll when, from the 9 or 10 posts you have written so far, not one of them has been anything but picking other bids apart and critizizing them to the point of being illogical, and having no other arguments than mere than saying "this city is dirty, does not deserve the OG".

You claim that you expected to see democracy here, but YOU are the first one that attacks for no plausible reason and feel affronted whenever anyone questions your "reasoning". Good day to you, sir.

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For a long time I've had the impression that if Istanbul reached the final round they would win it right away either against Madrid or Tokyo, that's why I believe that both Tokyo and Madrid prefer to face each other in the final round and they may even plot together to prevent Istanbul from reaching the final. In a Tokyo vs Madrid final I don't see a clear winner, It just seems to me that neither of the two cities specially excite the IOC members.

I expect to see Madrid in the final, they've always had a strong base support which can be enough to get them easily into the final, and as for Tokyo and Istanbul... If Istanbul plays their cards well and intelligently and they arouse the necessary excitement in the IOC they might as well win the whole thing, however up till now I don't think that they have been intelligent/astute enough. If they pull a masterpiece of marketing and PR on Saturday (like Rio did) they can stand a very serious chance of winning.

Madrid never got more than 32 votes in the last 2 selections. And that was when the old man JAS was still alive. He (and many of his contemporaries) aren't around anymore. So I don't think Madrid is going to pull in more than 28 votes and will be dropped after round One.

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Based on past votes only, Istanbul never got over the 17 vote ceiling, while Toyko in 2016 peaked at 22. Based on this, there would still be over 20 votes to be allocated among the three cities. Also, I agree that JAS's effect on his friends might've won Madrid votes, but I think that that last plea he made could have had also the opposite effect from those members that wanted to clearly differenciate and break away from the past Samaranch era and urging them not to vote for Madrid. In addition, in 2016 the latin american vote was surely divided, if not going entirely to Rio, this time I guess that they will vote for Madrid for obvious reasons...

In the end we will never know what goes on in the complicated minds of IOC members. :blink:

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Based on past votes only, Istanbul never got over the 17 vote ceiling, while Toyko in 2016 peaked at 22. Based on this, there would still be over 20 votes to be allocated among the three cities. Also, I agree that JAS's effect on his friends might've won Madrid votes, but I think that that last plea he made could have had also the opposite effect from those members that wanted to clearly differenciate and break away from the past Samaranch era and urging them not to vote for Madrid. In addition, in 2016 the latin american vote was surely divided, if not going entirely to Rio, this time I guess that they will vote for Madrid for obvious reasons...

In the end we will never know what goes on in the complicated minds of IOC members. :blink:

True...altho this is the first time ALL 3 are being pitted against each other. Spain's economy is in the damper...which you didn't have in the last 2 rounds...whereas the Turkic and Japanese economies are humming along. So that is new background on which this will happen...plus we don't know what the Syrian drama will unfold over the next week or so.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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Since I can't figure out how to edit my earlier post, I decided to post my updated predictions:

  • Host city winner: Istanbul

  • First city voted out: Madrid

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner: Two

  • Which sport will be added: Wrestling

  • Who will be the new IOC president: Denis Oswald of Switzerland

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I think it is possible that this race is still totally up for grabs. These bids have totally different strengths and weaknesses and the footing is surprisingly even. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it all came down to the lobbying and the final presentations. This isn't like 2016 where the die was cast much earlier on. My gut feeling is that the Spaniards are best at the politics, the Japanese are next best and the Turks are the weakest. But if the Turks have already won over some key allies, perhaps that will help them. I wish i knew what the buzz was like in the inner sanctum. I wish Dick Pound or somebody would spill the beans and let us know which way the wind is blowing.

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I dunno, I also thought the 2018 vote would be closer than it was, and that turned into a rout. I guess it's time, though, to stop sitting on the fence and make my predictions.

Host City: Tokyo

First Voted Out: Istanbul

Number of rounds: 2

Sport added: Wrestling

New President: Thomas Bach

Pretty conventional and unadventurous lotto card, and I have to stress I'm not overly confident with the host city guesses, but, hey, gotta make my stand finally.

I'm more confident on the sport - I can't really see wrestling losing. As for the president, I'm torn. I tend to think Tokyo would boost Bach's chances, but a Madrid win would boost Ser Miang Ng's.

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