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GamesBids 2013 IOC Session Lotto/Final Predictions


Sir Rols
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  • Host city winner - MADRID

  • First city voted out - TOKYO

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner - ONE

  • Which sport will be added - WRESTLING

  • Who will be the new IOC president - DENIS OSWALD

Madrid has done great first rounds in 2012 and 2016 and - no risk no fun - sooooooooo...

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I was originally a big fan of Tokyo, but their bid just seems so pedestrian to me now. I know both Istanbul and Madrid have challenges, but so does Tokyo. I would prefer to see either Madrid or Istanbul host, but the tide seems to be going Tokyo's way. Personally, I don't understand that and I have a lot of trouble getting excited about it.

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If Madrid wins, there's no way they're doing it in one round. This race is very tight that its hard to place any one of the three claiming victory in one round. This is a two-round race.

Definitely. I don't think even three rounds is an impossibility. I think these candidates are so evenly matched that a tie is conceivable.

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Honestly, I probably would have felt the same way about Rome as I do about Madrid: economy isnt great - and you're a former AND recent host. While Rome is far more of an iconic, well-known city than Madrid could ever hope to be, I still would feel slight apathy to the idea. I just feel if the Olympics are to go back to Europe after only eight years - it might well be someone totally different to London - culturally and geographically - which is part of the reason Istanbul appeals to me over these more traditional European options.

Anywya, each to their own! :)

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You know, quite honestly I was never all that excited about Rome. The Torino thing bothers me. So does the economy. So does the proximity to London. So does the idea of back to back Latin Olympics. All in all, I don't think I would've been much more excited about Rome than I am about Madrid.

Durban definitely would've livened things up. To me, that's the bid that would've added some spice.

I agree that of the available options Istanbul is the most interesting, I just don't think they've campaigned anywhere near as well as they could have or should have. That's how we end up with Tokyo by default and it just doesn't excite me or interest me.

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I agree that of the available options Istanbul is the most interesting, I just don't think they've campaigned anywhere near as well as they could have or should have. That's how we end up with Tokyo by default and it just doesn't excite me or interest me.

Totally agree with that. I was prepared to be forgiving of their tardiness with some things, like their branding and such, early in the race, but as time went on they seemed to be coasting more on the notion that as a "new frontier" they should have it in the bag, rather than put in the hard campaigning needed. That said, this year's protests would have made it hard for any bid to get their message out and gain traction.

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In a less obvious way, if Tokyo 2020 comes to fruition, it will be a bit like LA84 - the pragmatic, safe, former host that went the extra mile to secure the Olympics when nobody else really wanted them.

Except that's not really true. Both Madrid and Istanbul want them. LA was unopposed. I don't see any '84 parallel at all.

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Except that's not really true. Both Madrid and Istanbul want them. LA was unopposed. I don't see any '84 parallel at all.

When you consider the cities that lined up (shortlisted or not) for 2012 - to the amount of interest in 2020, I think there is a comparison to be made. From 1992 to 2012 the Olympics were going from strength to strength. I think the economy, like the 1970's, has much to do with it.

My point is more that Los Angeles wasn't exactly the idea choice for the IOC in 1977, just like Tokyo might not be the ideal 2020 candidate - it is more a means to an end.

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When you consider the cities that lined up (shortlisted or not) for 2012 - to the amount of interest in 2020, I think there is a comparison to be made. From 1992 to 2012 the Olympics were going from strength to strength. I think the economy, like the 1970's, has much to do with it.

My point is more that Los Angeles wasn't exactly the idea choice for the IOC in 1977, just like Tokyo might not be the ideal 2020 candidate - it is more a means to an end.

I disagree with that too.

Los Angeles WAS the ideal choice for the IOC in 1977. The US hadn't hosted Summer Olympics since 1932. The US was the cultural and political epicenter of the 1980s. That choice was totally in tune with the zeitgeist of the era and it resulted in magnificent Games that rescued the Olympic Movement from the real possibility of extinction. Immediately preceding LA the Games had suffered tragedy in Munich, gross overruns in Montreal and boycotted Soviet Games. Countries weren't interested in hosting for multiple reasons.

None of that is true for Tokyo.

Tokyo is not the ideal choice. Ok, there's a 50+ year gap, but Japan is not going to be the cultural or political epicenter of the next decade. They're not in tune with the zeitgeist of the era and are unlikely to deliver magnificent Games that will rescue the Olympic Movement from the real possibility of extinction. Immediately preceding 2020 we've had glamour Games in Beijing, a solid success in London and a somewhat risky, but likely to be splashy Games in Rio. The Olympic Movement is not in trouble as evidenced by the long line of potential bidders for 2024.

I have a really hard time likening Tokyo 2020 to LA '84. I just don't see it at all.

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Durban definitely would've livened things up. To me, that's the bid that would've added some spice.

I agree that of the available options Istanbul is the most interesting, I just don't think they've campaigned anywhere near as well as they could have or should have. That's how we end up with Tokyo by default and it just doesn't excite me or interest me.

From an entertainment perspective, a Tokyo victory now would make for the most interesting 2024 race possible. It keeps all the Euro bidders hopeful, in addition to NA and Africa. Maybe I should root for Tokyo after all.

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Honestly, I probably would have felt the same way about Rome as I do about Madrid: economy isnt great - and you're a former AND recent host. While Rome is far more of an iconic, well-known city than Madrid could ever hope to be, I still would feel slight apathy to the idea. I just feel if the Olympics are to go back to Europe after only eight years - it might well be someone totally different to London - culturally and geographically - which is part of the reason Istanbul appeals to me over these more traditional European options.

Anywya, each to their own! :)

Sorry, but have to disagree with this. With all the talk that goes around on these boards at times, that Europe has so many countries & with many distinct cultures & identities, that they can host more often. And by that, I would qualify Italy being just as distinctly & 'totally different' to the U.K. just like Turkey is. I find nothing really similar between the two other than simply being on the same continent. Heck, to many Western Europeans, Turkey isn't even "European". And I would further say that a London/Rome Olympics would be more different than the Barcelona/Athens Mediterranean-flavor combo that we had before that.

Yeah, the economy wouldn't have been much better for a Rome candidacy, either, but if we still could be faced with that type of option anyway, then why not, like you said & which I agree with, in a much more iconic city like Rome. Yes, a previous host too, but like Tokyo, the Italians haven't hosted the Summer Games in a generation. So I don't see how that's 'recent'. After Paris, I think a Rome Olympics would be incredible.

From an entertainment perspective, a Tokyo victory now would make for the most interesting 2024 race possible. It keeps all the Euro bidders hopeful, in addition to NA and Africa. Maybe I should root for Tokyo after all.

Well, I've said it before, but if the IOC doesn't want another piddly 3-horse Summer race like 2020, then Tokyo would be the best option to keep all their options open for 2024. Like Baron likes to say, the more suckers the IOC has pandering for their over-priced party, the better for them to keep things interesting & open.

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Well, I've said it before, but if the IOC doesn't want another piddly 3-horse Summer race like 2020, then Tokyo would be the best option to keep all their options open for 2024. Like Baron likes to say, the more suckers the IOC has pandering for their over-priced party, the better for them to keep things interesting & open.

It's probably more of an interest to us here on GB than it is to the voters. I'd hope they'd have better things to worry about than finding ways to have more cities gush over them, but I'm not a voter and I'd certainly appreciate an intense and interesting 2024 race. If that means a Tokyo win, fine, sounds good.

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I agree, the 2024 race already looks like it will be an interesting one. With so many US cities given the chance and a chance for Africa's first games, I think it will be much more exciting.

However, many of us imagine that Tokyo is at a safe point of winning now, and I think so too. I am still excited in a way because of how close it is. I'm just hoping that even though the bids don't seem that special, the games themselves from any of the cities could prove to be very glamorous.

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