Jump to content

GamesBids 2013 IOC Session Lotto/Final Predictions


Sir Rols
 Share

Recommended Posts

I think Madrid has a real shot this year. Africa if they want 2024 will vote Madrid, and the Americas will vote Madrid, the Asian block could even vote Madrid in hopes of securing 2028. Not to mention the Middle East who may vote Madrid in hopes of Qatar. This seems to look like a fight to kick Europe out of bidding until 2036. That's more than half the world voting for Madrid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hardly think there's such a big conspiration to clear Europe out of the way, that may only be the thinking of a good few members with interests in 2024, but i seriously doubt that half of the votes will go to Madrid just to kick Europe out. As they've said before, a few members will vote with the interests of their countries in their own minds, but i think that we are overestimating geopolitics here; surely most of the members will vote for whichever city they please.

In any case, it is Europe the region/contintent that has the most votes by far, whereas for example Africa only has 12 or so. Europe can almost decide the host city just with their own votes and their opinion should not be underestimated, although the times of block voting (as when the USSR still existed and so on) is now dead.

I think Madrid has a real shot this year.

However, I do agree with this, Madrid getting the thumbs up seems more possible this time round than in 2012 and 2016, although I will not venture into speculating as to which city will win, as any of the three could win know. Curious thing is that I see all the three cities NOT winning rather than winning, which makes it quite difficult for me to make any prediction, anyone having the same problem? :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Turkey is a far cry from the decades circumstances that have lead to the current situation in Egypt. Culturally and politically, they are worlds apart. Every developing country has a risk factor, but Turkey isn't on the same page as Egypt.

Uhmmm... if Egypt, an older civilization, is still trying to come to grips with being a fully functional 21st century one; what more Turkey, a society cobbled together from many different tribes and just PUSHED into 20th century modernity by Ataturk in 1923...but is still facing identity problems today? They are quite similar. I was in Turkey last year so I think I have a pulse on what could happen there.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In any case, it is Europe the region/contintent that has the most votes by far, whereas for example Africa only has 12 or so. Europe can almost decide the host city just with their own votes and their opinion should not be underestimated, although the times of block voting (as when the USSR still existed and so on) is now dead.

Exactly. Europe has 60 IOC members. That's more than all of the other continents COMBINED. So I don't get the fuzzy logic where some say "that's more than half the world voting for Madrid".

And besides, these "voting blocs" get blown way outta proportation a lot times here (especially by the newbies). There's about 110 IOC members & each one will vote based on their own prejudices & preferences. And most aren't gonna be voting based on continental blocs. They're gonna be voting on what fits their personal, or their country's (&/or NOC's) own agenda the best.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How many votes do Europe have, do they have enough power to decide on their own?

Also, could a Western Euro city (Paris) still have a chance at 2024 if Istanbul gets 2020?

I don't think an Istanbul win necessarily precludes a Western European city from winning 2024, but I have a hard time seeing 2024 going to Europe after Istanbul 2020 and Europe 2022, especially if there is a strong North American or African city in the race.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good point. Now, I'm not convinced that 2024 is reserved for Africa, but some think that. If the African contingent is so strong and so united behind South Africa, shouldn't they be voting for Madrid to get Paris/Rome/Berlin out of the way and the pave the road for South Africa 2024? Unless they're so strong that they can vote for whoever they like in 2020 and still feel confident for 2024.

I agree. I think that makes total sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My big hesitation with Madrid is the fact that it offers the least cultural contrast to Rio. Back to back Latin Olympics. Tokyo offers the best cultural contrast to Rio. I do believe these considerations will influence voting, if not consciously then subliminally.

The more I think about it, the more possible it seems that Istanbul will be the first city eliminated.

Consider: If you are Madrid and you make it to the second round, you probably stand a much better chance of picking up Istanbul's votes thank Tokyo's. If you are a Tokyo supporter and you make it to the second round, you probably stand a much better chance of picking of Istanbul's votes than Madrid's. Therefore, both Tokyo and Madrid have good reason to want to see Istanbul go first.

If either Madrid or Tokyo is eliminated first, Istanbul may potential gain a lot of ground in the second round. I can imagine either Madrid supporters or Tokyo supporters switching their votes to Istanbul.

It will be very interesting to see how the math breaks down from the rounds. (I do believe there will be two.) I just wish the ballots weren't secret!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It will be very interesting to see how the math breaks down from the rounds. (I do believe there will be two.) I just wish the ballots weren't secret!

The IOC should do it like the US/Canadian census does it- release this info decades later. 30 years seems like a good time frame to make the release of this info purely academic and non-prejudicial to any of the voting members. Why not? ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am sure very few of the Middle East / North Africa votes would go to Istanbul. After the turkish governmet's stance on what happened in Egypt. There is a declared offcial with Ankara in most of the Gulf states (except Qatar). I am interested to know how would these particular votes go eventually...

Egypt

Jordan

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The majority of the IOC's members in the ME are from the group that is more inclined to support Turkey. Qatar's power-plays are not exactly winning many friends

Exactly. Europe has 60 IOC members. That's more than all of the other continents COMBINED. So I don't get the fuzzy logic where some say "that's more than half the world voting for Madrid".

And besides, these "voting blocs" get blown way outta proportation a lot times here (especially by the newbies). There's about 110 IOC members & each one will vote based on their own prejudices & preferences. And most aren't gonna be voting based on continental blocs. They're gonna be voting on what fits their personal, or their country's (&/or NOC's) own agenda the best.

Some of them go against their NOC's wishes.

Edited by faster
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting question to everyone: if you were an IOC voter and your favourite bid goes in the first round- who would you switch your vote to?

For me, as an Istanbul support, it would be full support behind Tokyo in the event of a Istanbul elimination.

Anyone but Madrid.

Sorta happened anyway. Emotionally, I was all for Istanbul at the start of the race. Still would be happy, but I've developed a soft spot for the Tokyo bid.

For 2012, i was strongly for NYC at first. But the sheer enthusiasm and longing of the Brits here converted me strongly to London (not to mention, NYC started looking more of a lame duck the longer the race went on).

Edited by Sir Rols
Link to comment
Share on other sites

WIth 'Turkey will join the coalition against Syria if the UN does not react' ' Syrian rebels receive four tons of weapons from Turkey' 'United Kingdom and Turkey do not reject an attack in Syria without UN consensus'

I think Istanbul has lost the vote of the syrian member (if it once had it)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the race I've followed the least since the 2010 race, mostly because none of the three cities excite me all that much, so I don't have any prediction, but I'd be okay with any of the three. I think I have a slight preference for Tokyo but Istanbul is very intriguing and Madrid seems like a solid choice.

Ah, **** it, I'll predict anyway:

  • Host city winner (from Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo)

  • First city voted out (Madrid)

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner (Two).

  • Which sport will be added (from baseball/softball, squash and wrestling)

  • Who will be the new IOC president (from Thomas Bach, Denis Oswald, Sergey Bubka, Richard Carrion, Ser Miang Ng, and C.K. Wu)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...