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Well, they could be American. I just assumed they were Spanish based on their heavy handed bias. Even by looking in this thread, the extent that the Madrid supporters are so blinded by bias is ridiculous. They can't even admit that Tokyo IS the most likely winner at this point.

In this race, I'd be more upset by Madrid winning 2020 than I would Istanbul itself losing. If Tokyo wins 2020, I'll get over it and look forward to an exciting and bold former host doing it again. If Madrid wins I think it is a devastatingly inane outcome for the Olympic movement (moreso than Atlanta ever was)

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Host city winner: Istanbul First city voted out: Madrid and Tokyo How many voting rounds to decide the winner: one Which sport will be added: softball/baseball Who will be the new IOC president

a support from "the times" for istanbul http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article3861872.ece

I have been travelling all year so I haven't paid as much attention to this race as I usually do. Nevertheless, my recent week in Istanbul means I have now visited each of the candidate cities. So

Well, they could be American. I just assumed they were Spanish based on their heavy handed bias. Even by looking in this thread, the extent that the Madrid supporters are so blinded by bias is ridiculous. They can't even admit that Tokyo IS the most likely winner at this point.

You don't have to tell me that. And they'll never admit that Tokyo is the better bid. Otherwise, you get accused of being "criticizing & despising & simply against Madrid". And that you have no arguments to base that conclusion on. Not so much him, but two other Spaniards that roam around here that have disgusted me to no end with their insane accusations.

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I'm sorry, but this is seriously ambiguous. Firstly, I agree that Erdogan isn't a positive force for those that fancy a liberal democracy - but we need to remember that he is democratically elected - and Turkey is vastly more successful as a functioning non-corrupt democratic society than other previous hosts (such as Russia and China). With the Sochi situation as a notable exception, the IOC can't push away all developing democracies because they're not Norway. The world has some shitty politics at play, however the Olympics could be instrumental in bringing about a greater degree of scrutiny on the Turkish state. I believe it is one example of where the Olympic Games would be a positive force for nation and region.

Istanbul hasn't ruined it's chances, and if it has, it is cultural bias that has catastrophised the situation.

You're claim that Istanbul can't have the Olympics until it undergoes political reforms is laughable coming from a Spaniard- given what your own country is attempting to navigate, while attempting to undertake one of the most expensive projects a nation can shoulder.

*Your claim not you're claim (sorry for the grammar freaks out here and my lack of editing abilities - cant really justify the money on my student budget!)

I am a German American. While Istanbul would undoubtedly host a great Games I think they need to wait a bit. Erdogan has really ruined their chances of winning.

You don't have to tell me that. And they'll never admit that Tokyo is the better bid. Otherwise, you get accused of being "criticizing & despising & simply against Madrid". And that you have no arguments to base that conclusion on. Not so much him, but two other Spaniards that roam around here that have disgusted me to no end with their insane accusations.

Tokyo's bid is great and I will admit they have the best shot, but I'm still holding hope out for Spain. As for the truly biased Madrid supporters here *cough* paul *cough* their claims that the media is biased is total BS.

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I am a German American. While Istanbul would undoubtedly host a great Games I think they need to wait a bit. Erdogan has really ruined their chances of winning.

So... Istanbul needs to "wait a bit" based on the the ambiguity of political health... but Spain, who hosted as recently as 1992, and is in the midst of an economic crisis, is perfectly timed? Thats some stella logic there.

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So... Istanbul needs to "wait a bit" based on the the ambiguity of political health... but Spain, who hosted as recently as 1992, and is in the midst of an economic crisis, is perfectly timed? Thats some stella logic there.

I'm not saying it would be easy for Spain to host, but they have a better chance of wining than Istanbul, look at the predictions most say will Istanbul out first- and us Madrid supporters blind ourselves . On another note I'm not sure the IOC would want to head to another nation struggling with human rights after harsh criticism of Beijing and Sochi.

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Erdogan has really ruined their chances of winning.

It's not just Erdogan. Istanbul/Turkey is really a very mixed, unsure bag whereas Tokyo is a solid bid -- its financing, the discipline of the Japanese, a very advanced, non-drama culture and they've done it before. The only thing that gets checked off in an Istanbul win is "...it goes to a moderate muslim country". But is that really enough to award something as complex and gargantuan as an Olympic Games to a society that could become another Egypt in the intervening years?? Tokyo is the completely safe choice; Istanbul isn't; and Madrid is the quixotic alternative.

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I have been travelling all year so I haven't paid as much attention to this race as I usually do.

Nevertheless, my recent week in Istanbul means I have now visited each of the candidate cities.

So from a personal perspective, I certainly hope Tokyo hosts in 2020. I have been somewhat confused by replies on this thread saying Istanbul is not competing against a "London, Paris or Beijing". No, its competing against another of the world's greatest cities.

I wouldn't begrudge an Istanbul Olympics, because it is a great city. It would, however, leave a bad taste for me because of the economic disparity between Istanbul and the Kurdish dominated South-East of Turkey.

I really hope that Madrid is not awarded the games because it is among my least favourite cities I have ever visited.

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I have been travelling all year so I haven't paid as much attention to this race as I usually do.

Nevertheless, my recent week in Istanbul means I have now visited each of the candidate cities.

So from a personal perspective, I certainly hope Tokyo hosts in 2020. I have been somewhat confused by replies on this thread saying Istanbul is not competing against a "London, Paris or Beijing". No, its competing against another of the world's greatest cities.

I wouldn't begrudge an Istanbul Olympics, because it is a great city. It would, however, leave a bad taste for me because of the economic disparity between Istanbul and the Kurdish dominated South-East of Turkey.

I really hope that Madrid is not awarded the games because it is among my least favourite cities I have ever visited.

excuse me but, in every developing country u can see more developed or less parts in whole country. even in Usa. altough its a contradiction, most wealthy families are from south east Turkey comes to Istanbul later.

i wont suprise if Istanbul wins or kick out at first round but will surprise if she gets second. and more if madrid gets i ll be shocked :)

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It's not just Erdogan. Istanbul/Turkey is really a very mixed, unsure bag whereas Tokyo is a solid bid -- its financing, the discipline of the Japanese, a very advanced, non-drama culture and they've done it before. The only thing that gets checked off in an Istanbul win is "...it goes to a moderate muslim country". But is that really enough to award something as complex and gargantuan as an Olympic Games to a society that could become another Egypt in the intervening years?? Tokyo is the completely safe choice; Istanbul isn't; and Madrid is the quixotic alternative.

Turkey is a far cry from the decades circumstances that have lead to the current situation in Egypt. Culturally and politically, they are worlds apart. Every developing country has a risk factor, but Turkey isn't on the same page as Egypt.

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I agree. There is a strong chance China has its sights on 2028- if not the 2026/30 Winter Games. But they might be more interested in staging a second Summer Games than being a new frontier for the Winter Olympics.

I think if a bid for 2022 or 2026 doesn't eventuate- it will be all systems go for Shanghai 2028. Honestly, if there is no super compelling bid going for 2028, I'd support them. Beijing was great fun.

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But 2028 could land up being either Europes turn or North Americas turn or even Africas turn. This race really will decide the fate of the Summer games through to 2032 IMO, & that ordering could begin right here, on September 8.

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I don't know what to expect from the ballot. I think I wouldn't be surprised by almost any result.

Istanbul started as the top favourite, but it seems to have deflated during the last weeks. However, it's still an attractive new frontier, so I think it still has a shot at winning, although as of today it is the most likely to be dropped first. I find it hard to find a geopolitical block vote for Istanbul. Arab and Middle East countries would be the ones, but Qatar's interest in 2024 could have some (negative) impact on Istanbul.

Tokyo is the clear favourite now. It has a good technical bid and geopolitics work in its favour. It will get the votes from all those who support Paris/Rome/etc for 2024 and also from other Asian and Oceanian countries. I don't think it will be eliminated in the first round and in the final round it will probably gather the most votes from the eliminated city. It's the one to beat, but still its victory doesn't look as clear as Rio's four years ago once Chicago was eliminated.

Madrid is looking stronger than what could have been ever thought, especially one year ago, but I don't know if that will be enough for it to win. The bid is technically as good as Tokyo's and geopolitics are much better than for 2016. If Samaranch's death hasn't made its 32 supporters change their minds, it will probably make it through to the second round, but if it can't get more second-option votes, it will be a clear victory for the other finalist. I think Madrid will get most of the American votes, either because of cultural ties or to rule Europe out for 2024.

The block that makes me doubt is Africa and those who want Africa for 2024, so I'd say it's them who have the key to decide the winner in Buenos Aires.

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The block that makes me doubt is Africa and those who want Africa for 2024, so I'd say it's them who have the key to decide the winner in Buenos Aires.

Good point. Now, I'm not convinced that 2024 is reserved for Africa, but some think that. If the African contingent is so strong and so united behind South Africa, shouldn't they be voting for Madrid to get Paris/Rome/Berlin out of the way and the pave the road for South Africa 2024? Unless they're so strong that they can vote for whoever they like in 2020 and still feel confident for 2024.

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Thing is there are only 12 African IOC members. If South Africa is going to be award the games it is going to be on the support of Europe. And South Africa is not exactly universally loved within Africa.

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its a very complicated calculation if we think about future games and country benefits.

if i was an african member ill think a possible madrid games will strong asian and american hands as a block for 24. a tokyo will break asian votes for 24 also europe will divide in their own ( roma paris istanbul) istanbul can be dangerous also cause 5th time new frontier with wg. but better for 24 cause will kill european games also possible doha.

if i was an american def. i will back up istanbul or tokyo cause for 24 euro bids can step on others foot, and an african + american city can be final. and with istanbul 20, it could be enough new frontiers and back to safe ones again.

if im a muslim , it could change if im a capable host muslim country wont back istanbul def. but an african future games can have 24, and 28 will back to europe and 32 to america must wait for 4 games till a possible open area.:S damn

:)

whatever happens 24 will be the most excited race :)


altough 20 billion infrast. investment will make some countries mouths wet from now. thats another point.

+ 50b.usd energy investment inc. nuclear plant, a bridge on dardanelles channeles, 15b usd istanbul channel...

nearly a 100b usd investment in turkey and a good carrot for many countries......

thts another point

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As I see it, there are two factors regarding Africa that might be more relevant for 2020 than we think.

One of them is how many IOC members form the pro-Africa block. They can be 5, 10 or 30. If they are a significant number they will decide the 2020 host. If they're not, we can forget about all this.

The other factor is when (South) Africa wants to host. If they're happy with 2028, this hypothetical block would probably vote for Tokyo, let Europe and North America battle for 2024 and get 2028 after two traditional hosts. But if they're going after 2024, Tokyo is the one they shouldn't vote for, so they could support either Istanbul or Madrid and in this case I think they'd choose Madrid instead of Istanbul because three consecutive new frontiers could be too much for the IOC and because as Istanbul is selling itself as half European half Asian, Madrid would be the only one that would definitely take Paris/Rome/etc out of their way.

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money rulez the world. we dont know what they talk behind doors...

im sure like UK ( said on press) will like to have piece from this HUGE investment boom from Istanbul. 19bUSD may seen too much but for sponsors and companies its a new breath in this stucked economical situation. Turkey can play this card. USA Russia china korea and EU countries like UK and germany wont dissapoint turkey with this mve.

vote for us so we can give u the new aircraft order usa, vote for us we can give u nuclear power korea, ;)

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I am sure very few of the Middle East / North Africa votes would go to Istanbul. After the turkish governmet's stance on what happened in Egypt. There is a declared offcial with Ankara in most of the Gulf states (except Qatar). I am interested to know how would these particular votes go eventually...

Egypt

Jordan

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

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Regarding to African votes, I'm almost sure that Moroccos's member will support Madrid, and if i was from Senegal, Cameroon, Gambia or Nigeria, and i wanted my country to host the olympics once in history, i will vote to Madrid, so ' We don't need to have 4B in the bank to bid' 'Oh a country in crisis can bid'

However I think we are focusing too much in the future Olympic Games, How many countries will bid in 2024? 3,4,5? are the 100+ members going to vote regarding to the future bid? don't think so, Are the 12 African members going to vote Tokyo/madrid/Istanbul thinking thinking in a future Southafrican bid? mmm no. There are 100+ people choosing, and i'm sure some will vote just to the city they like most, where they think they will enjoy more, ore where their sport has better facilities, etc

Geopolitics are important but they aren't everything, as some like to say, the election of the city is as unpredictable as the election of a new pope.

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Regarding to African votes, I'm almost sure that Moroccos's member will support Madrid, and if i was from Senegal, Cameroon, Gambia or Nigeria, and i wanted my country to host the olympics once in history, i will vote to Madrid, so ' We don't need to have 4B in the bank to bid' 'Oh a country in crisis can bid'

However I think we are focusing too much in the future Olympic Games, How many countries will bid in 2024? 3,4,5? are the 100+ members going to vote regarding to the future bid? don't think so, Are the 12 African members going to vote Tokyo/madrid/Istanbul thinking thinking in a future Southafrican bid? mmm no. There are 100+ people choosing, and i'm sure some will vote just to the city they like most, where they think they will enjoy more, ore where their sport has better facilities, etc

Geopolitics are important but they aren't everything, as some like to say, the election of the city is as unpredictable as the election of a new pope.

Gambia? :blink:

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