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GamesBids 2013 IOC Session Lotto/Final Predictions


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I think if the African IOC would see Istanbul as their closest competitor is dampening an attempt to bid the next time, so they will most likely vote for Tokyo or Madrid. As for the other Asian IOC, there is a possibility that they may vote for Tokyo. Even though there's this thousand year long hatred between them all for one reason or the other, maybe some sort of close-to-home factor could play in there.

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Host city winner: Istanbul First city voted out: Madrid and Tokyo How many voting rounds to decide the winner: one Which sport will be added: softball/baseball Who will be the new IOC president

a support from "the times" for istanbul http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article3861872.ece

I have been travelling all year so I haven't paid as much attention to this race as I usually do. Nevertheless, my recent week in Istanbul means I have now visited each of the candidate cities. So

Which of the candidates is best for Africa? That could sway many of the members without an interest themselves.

Madrid or Istanbul would be best for Africa. A Tokyo win almost guarantees a strong European field for 2024. I still don't see why any member who is primarily interested in Africa or North America for 2024 would be voting for Tokyo.

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But the South Africans are still being wishy-washy about the whole thing. While the Europeans are more likely to come out & play. And if a Tokyo win "almost guarantees a strong European filed for 2024", then I don't see how that's good news for Madrid 2020. Since that would mean that there could be many behind the scenes dealings.

And while Tokyo & Istanbul may not be the Beijjng, London, Rio & Paris, they're still both arguably more exciting options than Madrid. Especially with their "fiscally responsible" Games plan.

And come on, one can't really compare Nagoya, a bid from 32 years ago, which was even from Japan's top two cities. Apples & oranges to say the least. Plus, I'd say that Istanbul, once looking like the front-runner, has once again become the dark horse in this race.

*wasn't even from Japan's top two cities.

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  • Host city winner ( i want Istanbul to win. but if Tokyo get it, i'll be ok with it.[because it's a bit near to me])

  • First city voted out (mardid)

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner (minimum two).

  • Which sport will be added (wrestling)

  • Who will be the new IOC president (i won't decide because i can't make an informed decision)

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Actually you can because the IOC that voted for 2012 and 2016 is the same IOC that will vote for 2020. Whereas with Nagoya it was completely different and a lot more bribes were passed to get Seoul those games. Samaranch's influence will only get you so far when it looks like France, Italy, Germany, Sweden, Norway, and Austria will vote as a block against Madrid and Istanbul for their own interests, and there are strong indications that the Americans, Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis will also all vote for Tokyo.

North America would probably vote Madrid to knock out any European competition for 2024. South America would go the same route considering their strong ties to Spain. The only block against Madrid so far is Europe.

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It's flawed reasoning to assume that all of the South American votes would go to Madrid. We don't know what other idiosyncrasy criteria these members could be using before casting their vote. That's like saying that all of the Muslim votes will go to Istanbul, or all of the Asian votes will go to Tokyo, which they won't in each respective case.

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It's flawed reasoning to assume that all of the South American votes would go to Madrid. We don't know what other idiosyncrasy criteria these members could be using before casting their vote. That's like saying that all of the Muslim votes will go to Istanbul, or all of the Asian votes will go to Tokyo, which they won't in each respective case.

I do not think that ME will vote Istanbul or that Asia will vote Tokyo, but I think that SA will vote Madrid.

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  • Host city winner (from Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo)

  • First city voted out (Madrid)

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner (two).

  • Which sport will be added (from baseball/softball, squash and wrestling)

  • Who will be the new IOC president (from Thomas Bach, Denis Oswald, Sergey Bubka, Richard Carrion, Ser Miang Ng, and C.K. Wu)

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Which of the candidates is best for Africa? That could sway many of the members without an interest themselves.

Many of the African IOC members will be voting in line with the wishes of the Chinese. That is to say probably a 1/3rd of Madrid's support will be from Africa on direction of the Chinese.

Madrid or Istanbul would be best for Africa. A Tokyo win almost guarantees a strong European field for 2024. I still don't see why any member who is primarily interested in Africa or North America for 2024 would be voting for Tokyo.

The North American voters are more looking at who would host the best games, who has the best bid. Tokyo is more inline with that thinking. And the Americans are still bitter over Madrid's performance in 2016.

North America would probably vote Madrid to knock out any European competition for 2024. South America would go the same route considering their strong ties to Spain. The only block against Madrid so far is Europe.

Japan's support in 2016 swung completely behind Rio for 2016. There are debts to be settled.

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Many of the African IOC members will be voting in line with the wishes of the Chinese. That is to say probably a 1/3rd of Madrid's support will be from Africa on direction of the Chinese.

What is China's interest in supporting Madrid? Are they looking to bid themselves soon, or is it just for the sake of keeping the Games away from Japan?

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What is China's interest in supporting Madrid? Are they looking to bid themselves soon, or is it just for the sake of keeping the Games away from Japan?

A little from column A, a little from columb B. China and Korea worked feverishly leading up to 2016 to knock Tokyo out of the race. Japan did the same to Pyeongchang for 2018. It is happening again, though without the support of Korea. They are pre-occupied at the moment. As for why the Chinese would support Madrid over Istanbul in their quest, that is easy. Samaranch.

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Actually you can because the IOC that voted for 2012 and 2016 is the same IOC that will vote for 2020. Whereas with Nagoya it was completely different and a lot more bribes were passed to get Seoul those games. Samaranch's influence will only get you so far when it looks like France, Italy, Germany, Sweden, Norway, and Austria will vote as a block against Madrid and Istanbul for their own interests, and there are strong indications that the Americans, Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis will also all vote for Tokyo.

Why in the world would Americans or Canadians vote for Tokyo? Aren't they interested in 2024 and wouldn't it be better to eliminate European competition?

Why would Germany, Sweden, Norway and Austria all vote Tokyo? 2022 WILL be in Europe so there's no advantage to those countries if they vote against Europe for 2022.

I can see why Oceania would vote Tokyo: time zone, proximity. I can see why France and Italy would vote Tokyo: potential designs on 2024. But all your other "strong indications" look very doubtful to me.

What are these "strong indications" anyway?

Edit "if they vote against Europe for 2020."

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Many of the African IOC members will be voting in line with the wishes of the Chinese. That is to say probably a 1/3rd of Madrid's support will be from Africa on direction of the Chinese.

The North American voters are more looking at who would host the best games, who has the best bid. Tokyo is more inline with that thinking. And the Americans are still bitter over Madrid's performance in 2016.

Japan's support in 2016 swung completely behind Rio for 2016. There are debts to be settled.

Totally disagree with your analysis of the North American votes. I don't believe there's any bitterness towards Madrid at all. If any city foiled Chicago's dreams it was Tokyo by outscoring them in the first round.

As for Tokyo's votes going to Rio, I wouldn't read much into that and I don't think there are "debts to be settled." The vast majority of people, when faced with a choice between Madrid and Rio were going to pick Rio. Especially in the immediate wake of London.

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Not sure if it has been mentioned in this thread - but Australia's Federal Election is also occurring on September 7. For Australian Olympic fans it will certainly be weekend of two very maligned races coming to a close.

I have a bottle of vodka under the sink in a glass box labelled "SITUATION: ABBOTT+MADRID"

Anyway - my bets:

Host city winner: TOKYO

First city voted out: ISTANBUL (I'm afraid I'll have a Chicago broken heart on Sept. 7)

How many voting rounds to decide the winner: TWO

Which sport will be added: WRESTLING (the one outcome I'll be happy with)

Who will be the new IOC president: {b]BORING BACH[/b]

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HOwever I MUST say that IF Istanbul survives the first round (eg/ Tokyo or Madrid bow out first) I think it either WIN by a LANDSLIDE against Madrid - or WIN/LOSE by a slight margin against Tokyo. I'm thinking of the 2000 race here with Sydney and Beijing.

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I have a bottle of vodka under the sink in a glass box labelled "SITUATION: ABBOTT+MADRID"

I think I'd need more than a bottle of v0dka to anaesthetise myself against the pain of THAT double.

:unsure:

Host city winner: TOKYO

You were the last person I expected to give up the faith on Istanbul!

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I think I'd need more than a bottle of v0dka to anaesthetise myself against the pain of THAT double.

:unsure:

You were the last person I expected to give up the faith on Istanbul!

I haven't given up faith - I do strongly believe that they are the best CITY to win the 2020 Olympics - but I won't deny that Tokyo has delivered the best BID.

I still think that Istanbul has the goods - and the capability to deliver the best Olympics in 2020 of all three options by a country mile... it is just a matter of if the voting body will also share this view and allow it to happen. I have a gut feeling they will go with Tokyo, and Istanbul will be the shock first exit - even if by a few votes. HOWEVER as I said, IF Istanbul gets past this vital first stage their chances leapfrog, and I think that they have a BIG chance of winning a final around against either Tokyo and (much moreso) against Madrid.

In summary, I think Istanbul has a better chance and knocking over Madrid in a final round than Tokyo would.

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I think everyone gave up Istanbul hope BUT that would be funny if Tokyo was out in round one. I have a feeling that many would say, " Tokyo is out! Tokyo is out! Madrid is still in?! Istanbul is still in?! Tokyo is out?!" :P:P


I haven't given up faith - I do strongly believe that they are the best CITY to win the 2020 Olympics - but I won't deny that Tokyo has delivered the best BID.

I still think that Istanbul has the goods - and the capability to deliver the best Olympics in 2020 of all three options by a country mile... it is just a matter of if the voting body will also share this view and allow it to happen. I have a gut feeling they will go with Tokyo, and Istanbul will be the shock first exit - even if by a few votes. HOWEVER as I said, IF Istanbul gets past this vital first stage their chances leapfrog, and I think that they have a BIG chance of winning a final around against either Tokyo and (much moreso) against Madrid.

In summary, I think Istanbul has a better chance and knocking over Madrid in a final round than Tokyo would.

I know a may be biased for Madrid, but Istanbul has ruined their chances. They need to undergo serious political reforms before they can host these games.

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HOwever I MUST say that IF Istanbul survives the first round (eg/ Tokyo or Madrid bow out first) I think it either WIN by a LANDSLIDE against Madrid - or WIN/LOSE by a slight margin against Tokyo. I'm thinking of the 2000 race here with Sydney and Beijing.

Interesting scenario. And I guess most just think about who goes first, but doesn't really look into much who would fare better against the other in the final. It's a theory that was thrown around a lot for the 2016 race many cited that Rio's real threat was Chicago, & how perhaps the Brazilian's tried to make a stealthy move by making sure that they were the first ones to go.

You were the last person I expected to give up the faith on Istanbul!

I still think that Istanbul could be the dark horse here.

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I know a may be biased for Madrid, but Istanbul has ruined their chances. They need to undergo serious political reforms before they can host these games.

I'm sorry, but this is seriously ambiguous. Firstly, I agree that Erdogan isn't a positive force for those that fancy a liberal democracy - but we need to remember that he is democratically elected - and Turkey is vastly more successful as a functioning non-corrupt democratic society than other previous hosts (such as Russia and China). With the Sochi situation as a notable exception, the IOC can't push away all developing democracies because they're not Norway. The world has some shitty politics at play, however the Olympics could be instrumental in bringing about a greater degree of scrutiny on the Turkish state. I believe it is one example of where the Olympic Games would be a positive force for nation and region.

Istanbul hasn't ruined it's chances, and if it has, it is cultural bias that has catastrophised the situation.

You're claim that Istanbul can't have the Olympics until it undergoes political reforms is laughable coming from a Spaniard- given what your own country is attempting to navigate, while attempting to undertake one of the most expensive projects a nation can shoulder.

*Your claim not you're claim (sorry for the grammar freaks out here and my lack of editing abilities - cant really justify the money on my student budget!)

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.You're claim that Istanbul can't have the Olympics until it undergoes political reforms is laughable coming from a Spaniard- given what your own country is attempting to navigate, while attempting to undertake one of the most expensive projects a nation can shoulder.

*Your claim not you're claim (sorry for the grammar freaks out here and my lack of editing abilities - cant really justify the money on my student budget!)

His handle, though, says that he's from the U.S. Which makes his 'bias' for Madrid even more bewildering. Unless his ethnic background is of such.

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I do not think that ME will vote Istanbul or that Asia will vote Tokyo, but I think that SA will vote Madrid.

Why? "Strong, cultural ties" to Spain? Not all Latino's are that found of the Motherland. Many have resentment over the rape & pillage of their indigenous ancestors from the Spaniards. Besides, there's only about half a dozen South American votes. But I'd still say that it's still a stretch to say that all of them will vote for Madrid, since again, it's not just "strong, cultural ties" that the members strictly vote on. There's a whole slew of other factors as well.

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