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GamesBids 2013 IOC Session Lotto/Final Predictions


Sir Rols
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I really don't think it matters, as if you look at the schedule for the Session, the host city announcement is before the presidential election.

http://www.olympic.org/Documents/IOC_Executive_Boards_and_Sessions/IOC_Sessions/125_Session_Buenos_Aires_2013/Programme_of_Events-125th_IOC_Session.pdf

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^yeah, but some members could vote for the host city with the presidential election in mind. So in that sense, it does matter.

For example, in the 2001 Moscow session, it wasn't going to be Beijing 2008 & an Asian IOC member. Which there were a couple on the ballot. And the same thing now, I doubt that we'll see Tokyo 2020 & an Asian IOC president coming out of this Buenos Aires session. And I wouldn't be surprised that Bach & Oswald would be right behind the Tokyo 2020 candidacy, so their ambitions would have greater chances in the presidential election.

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The 2001 Moscow session, where the 2008 host city was being elected, as well as Samaranch's successor. Also the election for the 1994 Winter Games, where Ostersund was viewed as the favorite, yet lost, perhaps very likely when Sweden's own IOC member got elected to the Executive Board earlier in the same session.

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The 2001 Moscow session, where the 2008 host city was being elected, as well as Samaranch's successor. Also the election for the 1994 Winter Games, where Ostersund was viewed as the favorite, yet lost, perhaps very likely when Sweden's own IOC member got elected to the Executive Board earlier in the same session.

And Sama also had eyes to charm the Norwegians into giving the IOC the Nobel Peace Prize.

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The 2001 Moscow session, where the 2008 host city was being elected, as well as Samaranch's successor. Also the election for the 1994 Winter Games, where Ostersund was viewed as the favorite, yet lost, perhaps very likely when Sweden's own IOC member got elected to the Executive Board earlier in the same session.

I guess I'm still not seeing a clear parallel.

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Bach, Tokyo 2020 and wrestling bookmakers favourites for Buenos Aires

August 23 - London bookmakers William Hill have installed Germany's long-serving International Olympic Committee (IOC) vice-president Thomas Bach as clear favourite to succeed Jacques Rogge as the new leader of the organisation ahead of the election in Buenos Aires on September 10.

The 59-year-old lawyer, a fencing gold medallist in the 1976 Montreal Games, is priced at evens.

But coming up fast on the rails in the Presidential Stakes is Singaporean Ser Miang Ng, 63.

The former yachtsman is now joint second favourite at 4-1 with Puerto Rican banker Richard Carrion, 60.

The bookies suggest Ng, architect of the inaugural Summer Youth Olympic Games in Singapore in 2010, could be the dark horse in the six-strong field.

The Ukrainian pole vault legend Sergey Bubka, 49, a late runner, is a their 10-1 outsider with Swiss Denis Oswald, 65, and 66-year-old International Boxing Association (AIBA) President C K Wu, from Taiwan, jointly priced at 6-1.

At 4-9 on, Tokyo is strong favourite to host the 2020 Olympic and Paralympics Games, ahead Istanbul at 3-1 and Madrid 9-2, when the decision is made at the IOC Session in the Argentinian capital on September 7

William Hilll also suggest under-threat wrestling looks certain to retain its place in the Olympic sports programme, making it 4-7 on to get IOC approval over squash at 7-4 with baseball-softball given little chance at 8-1 when the decision is made on September 8.

Insidethegames

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That's nothing new. That's been pointed out plenty of times here before. But some still like to say "never underestimate the Spaniards.

It was quite clear, even though Madrid surprisingly got to the final round with Rio for 2016, where 2/3rds of the IOC wanted to go, & where they didn't.

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Yes, but now their alternatives are Tokyo and Beijing. Not London, Paris or Rio.

I do think that the general consensus is probably correct, but this is too much of a race for me to put money on it.

Ugh. I meant Tokyo and Istanbul. Sorry.

Exactly--none of the 2020 bid cities have done well in previous tries. Since Tokyo hosted in 1964, none of Japan's bid cities have received more than 27 votes (Nagoya for 1988). Istanbul has never garnered more than 17 votes. Obviously, one of these cities is going to receive more votes this time, and I don't think we can draw any conclusions from past results.

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Exactly--none of the 2020 bid cities have done well in previous tries. Since Tokyo hosted in 1964, none of Japan's bid cities have received more than 27 votes (Nagoya for 1988). Istanbul has never garnered more than 17 votes. Obviously, one of these cities is going to receive more votes this time, and I don't think we can draw any conclusions from past results.

Actually you can because the IOC that voted for 2012 and 2016 is the same IOC that will vote for 2020. Whereas with Nagoya it was completely different and a lot more bribes were passed to get Seoul those games. Samaranch's influence will only get you so far when it looks like France, Italy, Germany, Sweden, Norway, and Austria will vote as a block against Madrid and Istanbul for their own interests, and there are strong indications that the Americans, Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis will also all vote for Tokyo.

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Which of the candidates is best for Africa? That could sway many of the members without an interest themselves.

None of them can impact Africa's chances. It's a whole different ballgame when a competent African bid will be involved. The whole geopolitical paradigm will shift. A Rio or another Southern hemisphere city would've been a liability for a South African bid. Istanbul would not be good for an Alexandria or north African bid.

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