yoshi Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 So if Ng wins, is Madrid on to a winner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phandrosis Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 I really don't think it matters, as if you look at the schedule for the Session, the host city announcement is before the presidential election. http://www.olympic.org/Documents/IOC_Executive_Boards_and_Sessions/IOC_Sessions/125_Session_Buenos_Aires_2013/Programme_of_Events-125th_IOC_Session.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 ^yeah, but some members could vote for the host city with the presidential election in mind. So in that sense, it does matter. For example, in the 2001 Moscow session, it wasn't going to be Beijing 2008 & an Asian IOC member. Which there were a couple on the ballot. And the same thing now, I doubt that we'll see Tokyo 2020 & an Asian IOC president coming out of this Buenos Aires session. And I wouldn't be surprised that Bach & Oswald would be right behind the Tokyo 2020 candidacy, so their ambitions would have greater chances in the presidential election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoshi Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 So if Tokyo wins, Bach gets it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 Most likely. I can't see Asia walking away with both big prizes from Buenos Aires. Either Bach or Oswald. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amarillo Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 Maybe Bach & co are more interested in the 3 spanish votes that in receiving 1 from japan, or maybe they want Japan to win the bid, to leave Ng,.. out of the race. who knows, there are too many factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 There are indeed too many factors. But a lot of times, precedence is a good indicator as to how these things will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 There are indeed too many factors. But a lot of times, precedence is a good indicator as to how these things will go. But what precedence would you apply to this session? And don't we mean "precedents"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted August 23, 2013 Report Share Posted August 23, 2013 The 2001 Moscow session, where the 2008 host city was being elected, as well as Samaranch's successor. Also the election for the 1994 Winter Games, where Ostersund was viewed as the favorite, yet lost, perhaps very likely when Sweden's own IOC member got elected to the Executive Board earlier in the same session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted August 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2013 The 2001 Moscow session, where the 2008 host city was being elected, as well as Samaranch's successor. Also the election for the 1994 Winter Games, where Ostersund was viewed as the favorite, yet lost, perhaps very likely when Sweden's own IOC member got elected to the Executive Board earlier in the same session. And Sama also had eyes to charm the Norwegians into giving the IOC the Nobel Peace Prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted August 24, 2013 Report Share Posted August 24, 2013 The 2001 Moscow session, where the 2008 host city was being elected, as well as Samaranch's successor. Also the election for the 1994 Winter Games, where Ostersund was viewed as the favorite, yet lost, perhaps very likely when Sweden's own IOC member got elected to the Executive Board earlier in the same session. I guess I'm still not seeing a clear parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted August 24, 2013 Report Share Posted August 24, 2013 I think the Spanish votes will at first go to Carrion. Especially Samaranch Jr's. This is the first race where I wouldn't be surprised if anyone of the cities won. We will see. Only a few more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted August 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2013 Bach, Tokyo 2020 and wrestling bookmakers favourites for Buenos AiresAugust 23 - London bookmakers William Hill have installed Germany's long-serving International Olympic Committee (IOC) vice-president Thomas Bach as clear favourite to succeed Jacques Rogge as the new leader of the organisation ahead of the election in Buenos Aires on September 10. The 59-year-old lawyer, a fencing gold medallist in the 1976 Montreal Games, is priced at evens. But coming up fast on the rails in the Presidential Stakes is Singaporean Ser Miang Ng, 63. The former yachtsman is now joint second favourite at 4-1 with Puerto Rican banker Richard Carrion, 60. The bookies suggest Ng, architect of the inaugural Summer Youth Olympic Games in Singapore in 2010, could be the dark horse in the six-strong field. The Ukrainian pole vault legend Sergey Bubka, 49, a late runner, is a their 10-1 outsider with Swiss Denis Oswald, 65, and 66-year-old International Boxing Association (AIBA) President C K Wu, from Taiwan, jointly priced at 6-1. At 4-9 on, Tokyo is strong favourite to host the 2020 Olympic and Paralympics Games, ahead Istanbul at 3-1 and Madrid 9-2, when the decision is made at the IOC Session in the Argentinian capital on September 7 William Hilll also suggest under-threat wrestling looks certain to retain its place in the Olympic sports programme, making it 4-7 on to get IOC approval over squash at 7-4 with baseball-softball given little chance at 8-1 when the decision is made on September 8. Insidethegames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 24, 2013 Report Share Posted August 24, 2013 What shall the IOC have for dinner on the final night of Sept 10? Place your bets... - Chateaubriand? - Fritatas? - souvlaki? - Fugu sushi? - Humble pie? This is the TIE-BREAKER!! So, guess the odds! - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deawebo Posted August 24, 2013 Report Share Posted August 24, 2013 2020 host city: Tokyo First city voted out: Madrid How many voting rounds: 2 (tight results) IOC president: Bach Sport added: wrestling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phandrosis Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 ^^ At this point, I imagine that this is the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 Talking to a few people. One pointed out this, despite Madrid's seeming over-performance in the last two elections, they have never broken 32 votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 That's nothing new. That's been pointed out plenty of times here before. But some still like to say "never underestimate the Spaniards. It was quite clear, even though Madrid surprisingly got to the final round with Rio for 2016, where 2/3rds of the IOC wanted to go, & where they didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 Yes, but now their alternatives are Tokyo and Beijing. Not London, Paris or Rio. I do think that the general consensus is probably correct, but this is too much of a race for me to put money on it. Ugh. I meant Tokyo and Istanbul. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barcelona_'92 Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 Yes, but now their alternatives are Tokyo and Beijing. Not London, Paris or Rio. I do think that the general consensus is probably correct, but this is too much of a race for me to put money on it. Ugh. I meant Tokyo and Istanbul. Sorry. Exactly--none of the 2020 bid cities have done well in previous tries. Since Tokyo hosted in 1964, none of Japan's bid cities have received more than 27 votes (Nagoya for 1988). Istanbul has never garnered more than 17 votes. Obviously, one of these cities is going to receive more votes this time, and I don't think we can draw any conclusions from past results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intoronto Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 That is an interesting tidbit on Madrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 Exactly--none of the 2020 bid cities have done well in previous tries. Since Tokyo hosted in 1964, none of Japan's bid cities have received more than 27 votes (Nagoya for 1988). Istanbul has never garnered more than 17 votes. Obviously, one of these cities is going to receive more votes this time, and I don't think we can draw any conclusions from past results. Actually you can because the IOC that voted for 2012 and 2016 is the same IOC that will vote for 2020. Whereas with Nagoya it was completely different and a lot more bribes were passed to get Seoul those games. Samaranch's influence will only get you so far when it looks like France, Italy, Germany, Sweden, Norway, and Austria will vote as a block against Madrid and Istanbul for their own interests, and there are strong indications that the Americans, Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis will also all vote for Tokyo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intoronto Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 And the Chinese probably won't be voting for Tokyo in the hopes of getting Shanghai to host asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoshi Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 Which of the candidates is best for Africa? That could sway many of the members without an interest themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 25, 2013 Report Share Posted August 25, 2013 Which of the candidates is best for Africa? That could sway many of the members without an interest themselves. None of them can impact Africa's chances. It's a whole different ballgame when a competent African bid will be involved. The whole geopolitical paradigm will shift. A Rio or another Southern hemisphere city would've been a liability for a South African bid. Istanbul would not be good for an Alexandria or north African bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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