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GamesBids 2013 IOC Session Lotto/Final Predictions


Sir Rols
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I think that Madrid could pull a victory. This year they are diamonds in the sky.

and a new moon rises on Istanbuls horizon too... but i dont see neither madrid nor istanbul gonna be the victor. tough the most compact game plan with prince's charming attitude i dont think madrid gonna surplus her 30/35 block votes to 50+ this time. not sure if Istanbul could too..

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So far these are the tallies:

Winning City:

Istanbul: 3

Madrid: 5

Tokyo: 8

First City Out

Istanbul:9

Madrid: 3

Tokyo: 2

Revived Sport

baseball/softball: 4

squash and wrestling: 10

New IOC President: Thomas Bach

So in perspective this is how it looks now:

Winner: Tokyo

First city out: Istanbul

Revived Sport: Wrestling

New IOC President: Thomas Bach

Not sure where you're getting this but there are zero votes for squash. Not 10.

Tokyo seems to be gathering steam -- at least here on GB....

Baseball was the last sported voted into the shortlist, and I don't think they will change that to be the front runner in less then 6 months. However they do have a strong message, with the most combined players in a sport not already on the Olympic program.

Actually, squash was the last to get its spot:

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/05/29/wrestling-baseball-softball-and-squash-make-ioc-shortlist-for-2020-olympic/

Wrestling was first, baseball/softball second, squash third.

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  • Host city winner: Tokyo

  • First city voted out: Istanbul

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner: 2

  • Which sport will be added: wrestling

  • Who will be the new IOC president: No clue

This is what I say, too. And interesting that so far, no one has said that Istanbul will win. Have they really fu@&ed up their own chances. Looks like now it could be an upset of a race if they actually do happen to pull it off now.

While my official prediction is dropping Istanbul on the first round, I have the feeling Istanbul can be an upset of a race. Right now, all the three contenders have dirt on their doors and no one has the "It" factor -Like Rio or Beijjing-. But, in a hypothetical case Istanbul survives the first round, Turkey wins the SOG.

Just a hunch...

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This is my first post on these forums, but I've been watching them for a long time now so I've gathered enough information to make an educated prediction.

  • Host city winner: Tokyo (Honestly seems like the strongest bid, even with the doubts about safety due to the March 11th incident)
  • First city voted out: Istanbul (I don't know if this is just narrow minded thinking, but if Istanbul lost out 5 times in the pas, even after getting to the candidate city stage, there must have been a reason why and it looks like it's happened again)
  • How many voting rounds: 2
  • Which sport will be added: Wrestling (It was a shock and apparent outrage when it was taken out, so I have no doubts it will be added back.)
  • New President of the IOC: Thomas Bach (Don't know much about this race, but I suppose that being a past Olympian and leader of a current Olympic committee gives him the upper hand in this election)
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[*]First city voted out: Istanbul (I don't know if this is just narrow minded thinking, but if Istanbul lost out 5 times in the pas, even after getting to the candidate city stage, there must have been a reason why and it looks like it's happened again)

]

Thats the thing. Many consider(ed) istanbuls best chances were for this 2020 race. No one was winning against Beijing for 2008 (& for 2000, which can be argued that the Chinese were leading all the early voting rounds, until Sydney lucked out on the last one). And for 2012, there was already too many other high caliber cities competing for those Games.

But this time around, istanbul is competing against only two other cities with more or less equal footing. And they actually lost out 4 other times, not 5. This is their 5th attempt & with a bid plan that has been improved upon from their prior bids. If it wasnt for their recent protests, I think Istanbul would have been sailing to an easy victory. But now it remains to be seen if they can pull it off. Which would really be an upset of a rafe at this point, & which I think is still plausible if they did.

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While my official prediction is dropping Istanbul on the first round, I have the feeling Istanbul can be an upset of a race. Right now, all the three contenders have dirt on their doors and no one has the "It" factor -Like Rio or Beijjing-. But, in a hypothetical case Istanbul survives the first round, Turkey wins the SOG.

Just a hunch...

So you think if Madrid loses first round they'll take their votes to istanbul and not tokyo? Wouldn't an asian games be better for a future olympic bid?

And if Tokyo loses first round you think they'll go to Istanbul instead of Madrid?

This is certainly showing to be an interesting final few weeks.

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I still maintain that Istanbul's problem isn't the protests, it's the government's response to them.

Totally agree.

Thought it was funny and ironic the other day when someone mentioned that if Istanbul misses out, Erdogan would blame the protesters. And lo and behold, the very next day he already pro-actively did that!

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Totally agree.

Thought it was funny and ironic the other day when someone mentioned that if Istanbul misses out, Erdogan would blame the protesters. And lo and behold, the very next day he already pro-actively did that!

He doesn't understand that it's exactly that type of behavior that will make the IOC leery.

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Winning City:

Istanbul: 4

Madrid: 7

Tokyo: 10

First City Out

Istanbul: 11

Madrid: 4

Tokyo: 2

Revived Sport

baseball/softball: 4

squash: 0

wrestling: 14

New IOC President: Thomas Bach

So far the GB predictions are the following:

Winner: Tokyo

First city out: Istanbul

Revived Sport: Wrestling

New IOC President: Thomas Bach


What in the world are you even basing this on. I would hardly equate an "austerity Games plan" & a boring narrative as "diamonds in the sky".

Sorry, should have explained this a bit better. In one of Istanbul's promo's the song ''Diamonds in the Sky'' is played; it was a joke that Madrid's bid had better chances of wining than Istanbul's bid. Yet no one beats Tokyo.


Winning City:

Istanbul: 4

Madrid: 7

Tokyo: 11

First City Out

Istanbul: 12

Madrid: 4

Tokyo: 2

Revived Sport

baseball/softball: 4

squash: 0

wrestling: 15

New IOC President: Thomas Bach

So far the GB predictions are the following:

Winner: Tokyo

First city out: Istanbul

Revived Sport: Wrestling

New IOC President: Thomas Bach


Sorry, should have explained this a bit better. In one of Istanbul's promo's the song ''Diamonds in the Sky'' is played; it was a joke that Madrid's bid had better chances of wining than Istanbul's bid. Yet no one beats Tokyo.

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Thats the thing. Many consider(ed) istanbuls best chances were for this 2020 race. No one was winning against Beijing for 2008 (& for 2000, which can be argued that the Chinese were leading all the early voting rounds, until Sydney lucked out on the last one). And for 2012, there was already too many other high caliber cities competing for those Games.

But this time around, istanbul is competing against only two other cities with more or less equal footing. And they actually lost out 4 other times, not 5. This is their 5th attempt & with a bid plan that has been improved upon from their prior bids. If it wasnt for their recent protests, I think Istanbul would have been sailing to an easy victory. But now it remains to be seen if they can pull it off. Which would really be an upset of a rafe at this point, & which I think is still plausible if they did.

I see, I guess I miscounted when reading up on the Istanbul bid. I agree that this bid has been improved off their former bids, as it's the first one from them I've hear a lot of buzz about. I think they could have had the "wow" factor like Rio or Beijing, but all the mistakes from the government leaders backing the bid have really brought them down and lost them the bid. However I think that if they hosted, they could host very nice games showing of their culture but that can easily be said for all three cities.

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I've always thought Istanbul would have had an excellent shot at winning but with all the recent events and the government handling I believe they really blew their chance here. I expect a first round exit. Momentum looks to have gone Madrid's way. It will definitely be a nail bitter final round vote between Madrid and Tokyo. I'm betting it will be a close differential in votes too.

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I think, more than in 2001, the presidential race will impact the host city election. I think Bach might be sacrifaced for a European host or Tokyo for Bach/Oswald.

The Chinese are heavily pushing for Madrid and putting a lot of pressure on the African IOC members to vote for Madrid. Whereas the Italian-French-German forces are heavily pushing for Tokyo. Which is stronger?

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I think, more than in 2001, the presidential race will impact the host city election. I think Bach might be sacrifaced for a European host or Tokyo for Bach/Oswald.

The Chinese are heavily pushing for Madrid and putting a lot of pressure on the African IOC members to vote for Madrid. Whereas the Italian-French-German forces are heavily pushing for Tokyo. Which is stronger?

The Eastern Hemisphere will be very split and the Americas will be the tie breaker. I think the America's will go Madrid as it eliminates any 2024-2028 European rivalry and the strong Spanish culture.

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