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Sir Rols

GamesBids 2013 IOC Session Lotto/Final Predictions

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while the IOC has been more or less operating as expected lately, madrid decimating chicago 4 years ago was something of a surprise. so while it seems likely that tokyo will edge out madrid in the 2nd round, madrid must be furiously scrounging up votes as we speak. if this race really is "up for grabs" as everyone says, madrid and its team have the edge over tokyo being european, familiar, and somewhat more approachable.

Host City: madrid

First Voted Out: istanbul

Number of rounds: 2

Sport added: wrestling

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I wish Dick Pound or somebody would spill the beans and let us know which way the wind is blowing.

And here's the gospel according to Dick:

With each bid facing political, economic or other drawbacks, the winner could be determined not for its positive attributes but for having fewer weaknesses than its rivals.

“There’s no obvious choice,” senior Canadian IOC member Dick Pound told The Associated Press. “Where do you go? None of the three is risk free. Probably somebody ends up backing into it this time.”

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And some more IOC members' quotes from the same article:

Kevan Gosper: “We’re looking for the city which we can look toward to be the most secure option at this stage, given global uncertainties and the fact that we’re entering into a new era with a new presidency,” longtime Australian IOC member Kevan Gosper said. “We’re looking for a safe pair of hands.”

Denis Oswald: “Of course we know how serious the Japanese are and we know they would deliver what they propose for sure,” Swiss IOC member and presidential candidate Denis Oswald said.

Jacques Rogge: “I think the ultimate choice will be a matter of a difference of two, three votes, not more than that,” Rogge said.

Gerhard Heiberg: “IOC members vote with their hearts, not with their heads,” veteran Norwegian member Gerhard Heiberg said. “They will look at the presentations and vote right there and then, not thinking that this is seven years ahead. That could decide who will take the gold medal.”

And another pearler from Dick (this'll make Paul's heart soar):

“Japan has got to recover from the real effects and perceived effects of the biggest nuclear meltdown since Chernobyl,” Pound said. “That’s not chopped liver.”

And more from Dick, this time on the presidential vote and Bach's chances:

“If you were handicapping, you’d have him in front, but whether it’s by a nose or a neck or open water, I don’t know,” Pound said.

And Dennis Oswald on wrestling's chances of being re-instated:

“I have no doubt it will happen,” Oswald said. “It was such a mistake. It has to be corrected.”

Edited by Sir Rols

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while the IOC has been more or less operating as expected lately, madrid decimating chicago 4 years ago was something of a surprise. so while it seems likely that tokyo will edge out madrid in the 2nd round, madrid must be furiously scrounging up votes as we speak. if this race really is "up for grabs" as everyone says, madrid and its team have the edge over tokyo being european, familiar, and somewhat more approachable.

Host City: madrid

First Voted Out: istanbul

Number of rounds: 2

Sport added: wrestling

Unfortunately I have to agree with you. I would add that I think Ng Ser Miang is going to be president

Edited by faster

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Unfortunately I have to agree with you. I would add that I think Ng Ser Miang is going to be president

Will I take that as your entry then, Faster?

Gotta admit, that was also the selection I was pondering. May still change it to that!

Edited by Sir Rols

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Based on past votes only, Istanbul never got over the 17 vote ceiling, while Toyko in 2016 peaked at 22. Based on this, there would still be over 20 votes to be allocated among the three cities. Also, I agree that JAS's effect on his friends might've won Madrid votes, but I think that that last plea he made could have had also the opposite effect from those members that wanted to clearly differenciate and break away from the past Samaranch era and urging them not to vote for Madrid. In addition, in 2016 the latin american vote was surely divided, if not going entirely to Rio, this time I guess that they will vote for Madrid for obvious reasons...

In the end we will never know what goes on in the complicated minds of IOC members. :blink:

Yeah, but when Istanbul got those 17 votes, they, along with 3 other cities, were competing against one of the darlings of new frontiers, Beijing. No one was gonna win against the Chinese. Even Paris only got 18 votes, just one more than Istanbul. But yet the French went on to get 50 votes for 2012. Plus, there were only two-rounds for 2008 in a five-city race. And it was clear that the majority wanted Beijing, & the rest were split among the minority votes.

As for Tokyo 2016, I'm sure their 'peak' at 22 votes had to do more that many still thought that is was too soon for Asia again only eight years after Beijing 2008. Tokyo 2020 doesn't really face that hurdle in this race now. While Madrid has remained stagnant in both their previous races at 32 votes. And I can't see them getting too many more than that this time around, either. Especially in a race that the majority of observers are saying that it's a very, very "tight race".

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  • Host city winner: Tokyo

  • First city voted out: Madrid

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner: 2

  • Which sport will be added: Squash

  • Who will be the new IOC president: Thomas Bach

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Yeah, but when Istanbul got those 17 votes, they, along with 3 other cities, were competing against one of the darlings of new frontiers, Beijing. No one was gonna win against the Chinese. Even Paris only got 18 votes, just one more than Istanbul. But yet the French went on to get 50 votes for 2012. Plus, there were only two-rounds for 2008 in a five-city race. And it was clear that the majority wanted Beijing, & the rest were split among the minority votes.

As for Tokyo 2016, I'm sure their 'peak' at 22 votes had to do more that many still thought that is was too soon for Asia again only eight years after Beijing 2008. Tokyo 2020 doesn't really face that hurdle in this race now. While Madrid has remained stagnant in both their previous races at 32 votes. And I can't see them getting too many more than that this time around, either. Especially in a race that the majority of observers are saying that it's a very, very "tight race".

Indeed, I agree with you that for all the cities the circumstances were different than they are now, but my point is that precisely because of that, I think that we should not base ourselves too much on what has happened on past votes, specially when this race has been said as "too tight to call". Past vote ceilings do not mean anything actually, as the circumstances have changed, and this applies to all the cities; like what you said, look at Paris, going from 18 in 2008 to over 50 in 2012. Every election is different.

As someone has said before, I'm sure the three cities as behemently fighting to get votes in Buenos Aires as we speak, and like Athensfan says, I perceive that the Turks are the weakest when it comes to lobbying, again, this is my perception, they may actually be PR beasts. And about Tokyo and Madrid, they have their past experiences, they will have learnt anything from the past about how the IOC works and what they have to do to gain votes. And while I see the Spaniards and the Japanese more or less on the same league in lobbying, I also perceive that the Spanish have a (slight) advantage; after all, they are European, maybe closer or more passionate than the Japanese, and the language barrier is not as big. But both the Japanese and the Spaniards have the same problem of focusing too much on "how" that are going to do it, rather than "why". However, what I am sure about is that the Japanese will need to prop up their final presentation somehow, they tend to be dull to the extreme and also somewhat unattractive; I don't have that concern about either Istanbul's or Madrid's presentations.

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Indeed, I agree with you that for all the cities the circumstances were different than they are now, but my point is that precisely because of that, I think that we should not base ourselves too much on what has happened on past votes, specially when this race has been said as "too tight to call". Past vote ceilings do not mean anything actually, as the circumstances have changed, and this applies to all the cities; like what you said, look at Paris, going from 18 in 2008 to over 50 in 2012. Every election is different.

As someone has said before, I'm sure the three cities as behemently fighting to get votes in Buenos Aires as we speak, and like Athensfan says, I perceive that the Turks are the weakest when it comes to lobbying, again, this is my perception, they may actually be PR beasts. And about Tokyo and Madrid, they have their past experiences, they will have learnt anything from the past about how the IOC works and what they have to do to gain votes. And while I see the Spaniards and the Japanese more or less on the same league in lobbying, I also perceive that the Spanish have a (slight) advantage; after all, they are European, maybe closer or more passionate than the Japanese, and the language barrier is not as big. But both the Japanese and the Spaniards have the same problem of focusing too much on "how" that are going to do it, rather than "why". However, what I am sure about is that the Japanese will need to prop up their final presentation somehow, they tend to be dull to the extreme and also somewhat unattractive; I don't have that concern about either Istanbul's or Madrid's presentations.

much more if now or wait for 8 more years for madrid... so dey push hard, ıstanbul and tokyo a bit more lucky about geo.

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What time do the presentations begin? And what time is the actual vote??

do we have a chance to watch live or it will be secret?

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What time do the presentations begin? And what time is the actual vote??

I can't tell you the hour of the presentations in Spain.

13:00- Istanbul's presentation

15:00- Tokio's presentation

17:00- Madrid's presentation

21:00- first vointg

22:30- second voting (unless having one round)

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I can't tell you the hour of the presentations in Spain.

13:00- Istanbul's presentation

15:00- Tokio's presentation

17:00- Madrid's presentation

21:00- first vointg

22:30- second voting (unless having one round)

Is that local Buenos Aires time?? That late? They usually start in the morning. Oh, they have a dinner break at 19:00pm.

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I've read somewhere that the host city will be announced at around 17:30, in Buenos Aires' local time; the times that Amarillo has posted are CET Times.

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Host city winner: Istanbul

First city voted out: Madrid

How many voting rounds: Two

Which sport will be added: Wrestling

Who will be the new IOC president: Richard Carrion

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Is that local Buenos Aires time?? That late? They usually start in the morning. Oh, they have a dinner break at 19:00pm.

That's the time in Spain, I think it's 5 hours less in Buenos Aires

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So at a rough guess, the announcement should be at around 23:00 UK time (CET-1) I'm sure I've seen an official timetable for the 7th somewhere, does anyone have it please?

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^^^That's it. The whole voting process is going to take place from 15:30 to 16:00 Buenos Aires time (20:30 to 21:00 CET) regardless of how many rounds are needed. At that time we will already know the name of the first city eliminated (unless there's already a winner in the first round). The winning city will then be announced from 17:00 to 17:30 BA time (22:00 to 22:30 CET).

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Great, thanks. :) Is anyone showing this on normal TV here? I can't see anything on Eurosport, they'd normally be the ones. I guess it might be on BBC News, unless another catastrophe hits on Saturday.

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