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GamesBids 2013 IOC Session Lotto/Final Predictions

Sir Rols

By Sir Rols
in 2020 Olympic Games Bid

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Athensfan Flag Bearer Level 8

Athensfan

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I think the Madrid article is very interesting. One must wonder about their sources. It's difficult for me to believe that some of those people (particularly the higher-ups) would allow their positions to be known.

I also found it surprising that Madrid expects a couple of votes from Italy and one from Australia. I was under the impression that all of those would support Tokyo.

It's also interesting to see that none of the Americans appear on Madrid's list. Come to think of it, I don't recall seeing Canadians either.

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Athensfan Flag Bearer Level 8

Athensfan

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Ok. I guess I'll dive into the pool. I've resisted making predictions because this race has been so even. However, it's not as though the stakes are terribly high (if there even are stakes).

The general expectation seems to be:

Tokyo wins

2 rounds

Istanbul out first

Bach

wrestling.

I think that consensus makes a lot of sense and still looks probable, but I think I've decided to throw caution to the win and predict a crazy outcome instead. In my gut, I think the following scenario is less likely, but I'm gonna throw it out there anyway because it's more fun than going with the favorites. You just never know how things will play out. I would enjoy the surprises if they actually happened.

Host city: ISTANBUL (by a nose)

First city out: TOKYO (by a nose)

Number of rounds: 2

President: NG SER MIANG (by a nose)

New sport: WRESTLING (comfortably)


Ugh. That was supposed to be "caution to the wind".

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intoronto Flag Bearer Level 8

intoronto

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"An IOC source said the Japanese capital is cruising towards the finish line. However, mounting concerns about leaks of radioactive water at the Fukushima nuclear plant are a potential game-changer."

Source

------------------------------------------------------------

2020 Olympics Likely To Go To Madrid: Source

NEW YORK -- Just three days before the International Olympic Committee is expected to decide which city will host the Summer Games in 2020, an expert familiar with the organization told The Huffington Post Wednesday evening that it seems increasingly likely the IOC will choose the Spanish capital of Madrid.

“To my astonishment, it seems like it’s going to be Madrid,” Wolfgang Maennig, a professor of economics at Hamburg University, told HuffPost.

Maennig, an expert in sports economics, is in Buenos Aires, Argentina, at a sports business symposium. Not coincidentally, representatives of the national Olympic committees are also currently in Buenos Aires, meeting to decide where the Summer Olympics will be held seven years from now.

Maennig said he met with two Olympic officials, including the president of a national delegation he declined to name, and both said Madrid was quickly pulling away as the favorite to host the Olympic Games over candidate cities Istanbul and Tokyo.

“I talked today to the president of a national federation and people are still afraid of Syria and even Iraq, even though that was years ago, affecting Turkey,” Maennig said on Wednesday. “There are also many concerns about the level of radiation in Japan.”

Maennig's report contrasts with other popular perceptions swirling around the IOC's decision. In June, organization officials issued preliminary scores for the three candidate cities, and both Madrid and Tokyo were in close contention, with Istanbul a dark horse. The officials' scoring was done based on visits prior to the civil unrest that gripped Turkey in June.

Prior to Wednesday, some forecasters were giving a slight edge to Tokyo, seemingly playing down fears Japan might be experiencing elevated levels of radiation as a result of a 2011 nuclear disaster. Further bolstering that city's case, Japan's prime minister said early Monday he would fly to Buenos Aires to personally explain how radiation levels were not an issue for Tokyo. The Japanese Olympic delegation is already at the summit doing a full-court press to push Tokyo's case. According to Reuters, the group "dangled dollar signs in front of the IOC" Wednesday, arguing that Japan is the most economically stable host country of all the candidates.

But fears of radiation remain, Maennig said.

Maennig, who has attended every Olympic Games since 1984 when he competed in rowing, said his personal preference would be Istanbul. As an economist, he has researched the effects hosting the Olympics have on a country’s economy and believes Turkey would greatly gain from the event.

“My personal view is that Istanbul would benefit the most because it’s not a well-ordered city, even though it’s an incredibly important city to Europe historically,” Maennig said. “But of course, they lost their credibility with the protests.”

Madrid has bid for the Olympic in the last three rounds and was the runner-up to host the 2016 games, behind Rio de Janeiro.

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Sir Rols Cauldron Lighter 20000 Club

Sir Rols

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Rols, in reply to what you said earlier, can I change my presidential prediction to Bach? I didn't know anything about the race then & assumed that the world renowned athlete would get it because of his profile. Thanks :)

Heheh - of course. But you were the only one who voted for Bubka - I quite liked that!

I'll do the final Bingo card up with changes and new predictions just before the IOC session kicks off tomorrow.

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fatixxx Flag Bearer

fatixxx

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Roland, you can refresh the Bingo-Thing ..

I will give it a throw..

  • Host city winner: IST - MARGINAL WIN OVER MDR

  • First city voted out: TKY - MARGINAL LOOSE UNDER MDR

  • How many voting rounds to decide the winner: 2

  • Which sport will be added: FILA - wrestling

  • Who will be the new IOC president: TB - NG (equal in first round) needs 2nd round with win for TB

fingers crossed for all the 3 candidate cities

may the best win

love you all

fatih

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runningrings Flag Bearer Level 2

runningrings

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Host city: ISTANBUL (by a nose)

First city out: TOKYO (by a nose)

Number of rounds: 2

President: NG SER MIANG (by a nose)

New sport: WRESTLING (comfortably)

Ugh. That was supposed to be "caution to the wind".

I increasingly have NO IDEA who will win. However, I can't shake this gut feeling that Tokyo might be destined to the Chicago upset in this race, and possible bow out first.

I'd feel desperately sorry for them, but I wonder what this does for Istanbul's chances.

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world atlas Flag Bearer

world atlas

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Just liked this tweet and want to share it with you here .. it's hard to predict this race final result even for IOC members!

My fav quote of the day on Olympic bidding comes via a seasoned IOC Member: "Some people assume, some guess, some hope, but nobody knows"

Retweeted by Michael.R Payne
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hektor Flag Bearer

hektor

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My prediction is Madrid beating Tokyo by a handful of votes.

Host city winner - Madrid
First city voted out - Istanbul
How many voting rounds to decide the winner - 2
Which sport will be added - Wrestling
Who will be the new IOC president - Bach

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FYI Torch Bearer 10000 Club

FYI

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I just keep thinking that the presidential race is going to have an impact on the host city. I just can't see Europe nor Asia walking away with both big prizes.

Didn't happen in 2001, & I have a hard time seeing it now Although an Istanbul win would make it ambiguous enough that I could see either continent taking the presidential prize.

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Sir Rols Cauldron Lighter 20000 Club

Sir Rols

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I just keep thinking that the presidential race is going to have an impact on the host city. I just can't see Europe nor Asia walking away with both big prizes.

Yep, I think it'll definitely be an influence.

Are we allowed to change still lol?

Sure! I'm still hoping we'll get more entries as well.

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Faster Torch Bearer 10000 Club

Faster

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Krow you pay want to bookmark this post 'cause I might be red faced tomorrow.

Having a discussion with my former Olympic history/politics professor something stood out. All the effort the likes of Austria, Sweden, Italy, Switzerland et al put in to ensuring 2018 went elsewhere are not going to suddenly give up and potentially postpone their own Olympics for the benefit of Spain or Turkey. In the case of the Italians and Swiss (who the Spanish press say support Madrid) it is far more likely they support Madrid over Istanbul, not over Tokyo and Istanbul.

I just think the desire to see the presidency stay in European hands and the games to be held in Europe in 2022 and 2024 are too strong.

As for the presidency I think it matters what order the candidates go out.

If Wu and Carrion go out first Ng stands a strong chance of getting enough of the anybody buy a European vote to get over the line. If Bubka is out first than the presidency will be heading to Europe again.

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mr.bernham Flag Bearer Level 2

mr.bernham

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I Presnt the Games Bids 125th IOC Session in 2013 predictions

Win

Madrid – 21

Tokyo -18

Istanbul – 11

Out First:

Madrid – 11

Tokyo – 11

Istanbul – 31

IOC President

Thomas Bach

Revived Sport

Wrestling – 42

Squash – 3

Softball/Baseball – 6

_______________________________________________________________________

Overall Results According to the Predictions of Games Bids:

2020 Host City: Madrid Voting Rounds: Two

First City voted out: Istanbul Revived Sport: Wrestling

New IOC President: Thomas Bach

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