Jump to content

Has The 2020 Race Become a Proper, Interesting, Contest?


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 94
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

An opinion piece which brings up Turkey's doping issues but doesn't once mention Fuentes (!!), which mentions Turkey's protests but forgets about civil unrest in Spain. Also, its use of Barcelona as

Emre, all of those things have been talked about on this forum. There are threads on BOTH the Spanish and Turkish doping cases (I know, I started them both), there was a thread on Fukushima, there has

Here are two bigger question: 1. When will the Expo 2020 winner be named? Izmir winning or losing BEFORE September 7 could have an impact on Istanbul winning or losing Olympic Games 2020. ANd 2.

I think the first round is the one that is most difficult to predict. It seems as though anything could happen there.

The potential final pairings may be easier to call.

Madrid v. Istanbul Advantage: ISTANBUL. I think Tokyo voters are much more likely to favor Istanbul than Madrid. Then again, the Turkish government's response to the protests may prove too much to overcome.

Tokyo v. Istanbul Advantage: probably ISTANBUL. This one is tough to call though. It depends on whether Tokyo comes into the final round with a large lead or not. I do think Madrid voters are more likely to favor Istanbul than Tokyo.

Tokyo v. Madrid Advantage: TOKYO. I think Istanbul voters will probably split fairly evenly between Madrid and Tokyo, but I expect more to favor Tokyo's reliability.

When I break it down this way, it is difficult for me to see how Madrid can chart a path to victory. I assume they'd prefer to face Tokyo in the final rather than Istanbul. They're more likely to pick up Istanbul's second round votes than Tokyo's, but I'm just not sure they can get enough.

The other interesting thing that emerges is that I suspect Tokyo and Madrid would both prefer to face each other rather than Istanbul in the last round. If that preference translates to successful political maneuvering from both opponents, perhaps Istanbul will be the first bid eliminated. Istanbul should be on their guard against this dynamic.

All things considered, logic would seem to suggest that Tokyo will win this, but it is close enough that I certainly wouldn't put money on it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the first round is the one that is most difficult to predict. It seems as though anything could happen there.

The potential final pairings may be easier to call.

Madrid v. Istanbul Advantage: ISTANBUL. I think Tokyo voters are much more likely to favor Istanbul than Madrid. Then again, the Turkish government's response to the protests may prove too much to overcome.

Tokyo v. Istanbul Advantage: probably ISTANBUL. This one is tough to call though. It depends on whether Tokyo comes into the final round with a large lead or not. I do think Madrid voters are more likely to favor Istanbul than Tokyo.

Tokyo v. Madrid Advantage: TOKYO. I think Istanbul voters will probably split fairly evenly between Madrid and Tokyo, but I expect more to favor Tokyo's reliability.

When I break it down this way, it is difficult for me to see how Madrid can chart a path to victory. I assume they'd prefer to face Tokyo in the final rather than Istanbul. They're more likely to pick up Istanbul's second round votes than Tokyo's, but I'm just not sure they can get enough.

The other interesting thing that emerges is that I suspect Tokyo and Madrid would both prefer to face each other rather than Istanbul in the last round. If that preference translates to successful political maneuvering from both opponents, perhaps Istanbul will be the first bid eliminated. Istanbul should be on their guard against this dynamic.

All things considered, logic would seem to suggest that Tokyo will win this, but it is close enough that I certainly wouldn't put money on it.

That's interesting, yeah. I tend to fully agree. Nevertheless, I'm not sure about Tokyo winning Madrid in that final pairing. It would be much easier for many voters clearing Europe out for 2024

Link to post
Share on other sites

A few months ago I would've said that Madrid would be out in the first round and it would all come to a Tokyo-Istanbul showdown. However now I would not be surprised to see Istanbul out the first; i think that both Madrid and Tokyo have powerful base of votes to get them through to the second round. Madrid has a very strong base in Latin America (which it did not in 2016, given to Rio's presence), i'd venture to say that the US and Canada eould also vote for Madrid first option, as well as some European faithfuls

or friends of prince Filipe. Tokyo will surely get most of its votes from the European members and some asian friends. Then I would say that the remaining votes from Africa and Asia would split quite evenly among the three candidates based on personal preferences.

It is just that I can't see Istanbul gathering enough votes to survive, even though it is my favourite candidate. They would need all of the 9 or so muslim votes to have a chance of surviving, and i even doubt that they will secure this, they would need to make a spectacular comeback and their final presentation would need to be pitch perfect to create enough momentum for them.

In addition, I agree with what Athensfan has said, surely both Tokyo and Madrid prefer to face each other in the final round, if they both plot to kick Istanbul out the first, then Istanbul would be pretty much against the wall; too much lobbying against them.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Really, Istanbul should be courting North America. If they can convince the US and Canada that Istanbul makes as much if not more sense than Madrid, they might scrape by the first round.

Also, don't forget that Seb Coe is lobbying for Istanbul and he's well-liked and trusted in the IOC.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Really, Istanbul should be courting North America. If they can convince the US and Canada that Istanbul makes as much if not more sense than Madrid, they might scrape by the first round.

Also, don't forget that Seb Coe is lobbying for Istanbul and he's well-liked and trusted in the IOC.

You're right, but I still can't see Madrid falling the first. The city always had a minimum group of voters of 30 and always managed to survive.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think that there'll be a 2nd round at all. With only 3 bids, it'll be much easier for a 1st round win than in a normal 5 bid race, just look at 2018. The city which is best at lobbying will win this, & with only 2 opponents, any city good at lobbying should be able to secure enough votes for a 1st round majority, as there is much less competition for this than there was in, say, 2012.

Link to post
Share on other sites

You're right, but I still can't see Madrid falling the first. The city always had a minimum group of voters of 30 and always managed to survive.

I hear you. I think it's likely Istanbul will go first, but it's not guaranteed. Things happen.

Isn't it interesting that most of us expect to see Madrid in the final, but we don't expect them to win? We're more confident in predicting second place than first.

I don't think that there'll be a 2nd round at all. With only 3 bids, it'll be much easier for a 1st round win than in a normal 5 bid race, just look at 2018. The city which is best at lobbying will win this, & with only 2 opponents, any city good at lobbying should be able to secure enough votes for a 1st round majority, as there is much less competition for this than there was in, say, 2012.

I disagree on this one. It was foreseeable with 2018, but the 2020 race is tighter. Each city has their supporters and I'm not seeing strong momentum in one direction. The fact that it's still conceivable that any one of the three could win suggests to me that no bid will get 50% plus one on the first round. I can imagine it being divided almost in thirds.

Of course there's still time for the landscape to shift.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I disagree on this one. It was foreseeable with 2018, but the 2020 race is tighter. Each city has their supporters and I'm not seeing strong momentum in one direction. The fact that it's still conceivable that any one of the three could win suggests to me that no bid will get 50% plus one on the first round. I can imagine it being divided almost in thirds.

Of course there's still time for the landscape to shift.

I agree--I think the votes in the first round are likely to be split pretty evenly between the 3 cities. Tokyo could be particularly vulnerable in the first round if they don't get support from the other Asian members. I assume the European members with interest in 2024 will vote for Tokyo, but if the other Asia/Pacific members vote for Istanbul or Madrid, Tokyo might struggle to get to 30 votes.

Link to post
Share on other sites

korea and china can support istanbul due to huge infrastuctre investments and nuclear plants construction. as i know and remember from press USA and UK &greece and russia supports Istanbul too. means 13 votes... + friends supporting Turkey ( lebanon+pakistan+brazil+ and usa uk influence) İstanbul can have about 25/30 in the first round

it will be a very close 1st round

Tokyo 35/40

istanbul 30/35

madrid 28/35

any of those can elliminate :S

Link to post
Share on other sites

korea and china can support istanbul due to huge infrastuctre investments and nuclear plants construction. as i know and remember from press USA and UK &greece and russia supports Istanbul too. means 13 votes... + friends supporting Turkey ( lebanon+pakistan+brazil+ and usa uk influence) İstanbul can have about 25/30 in the first round

it will be a very close 1st round

Tokyo 35/40

istanbul 30/35

madrid 28/35

any of those can elliminate :S

Yeah, you're right. I don't think Asia will back Tokyo as a block. Japan has very few friends in Asia. Maybe is the weakest in first round. However, I don't see either UK & Greece backing openly Istanbul. None of them have interests in 2024 and will be hard to justify in front of Madrid team.

Link to post
Share on other sites

korea and china can support istanbul due to huge infrastuctre investments and nuclear plants construction. as i know and remember from press USA and UK &greece and russia supports Istanbul too. means 13 votes... + friends supporting Turkey ( lebanon+pakistan+brazil+ and usa uk influence) İstanbul can have about 25/30 in the first round

it will be a very close 1st round

Tokyo 35/40

istanbul 30/35

madrid 28/35

any of those can elliminate :S

I'm not sure what makes you think the US will support Istanbul. It's a possibility, but who knows? After all, it's a secret ballot. We'll never know. And people have been known to promise one thing and do another. Especially when there's no accountability and no consequence to breaking your word.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, you're right. I don't think Asia will back Tokyo as a block. Japan has very few friends in Asia. Maybe is the weakest in first round. However, I don't see either UK & Greece backing openly Istanbul. None of them have interests in 2024 and will be hard to justify in front of Madrid team.

greece and turkey has a agreement in istanbul months ago ,

and from press UK supporting too.

well its human world and IOC anything can happen promises broken, suprises eliminate first round or win

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure what makes you think the US will support Istanbul. It's a possibility, but who knows? After all, it's a secret ballot. We'll never know. And people have been known to promise one thing and do another. Especially when there's no accountability and no consequence to breaking your word.

The real gut check will be if Istanbul makes it to the second round. I'm sure there will be a fair amount of "support" for Istanbul in the first round, in part to make sure that it receives a decent number of votes, but when it comes time to make the final decision, will some of the members change their vote?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, you're right. I don't think Asia will back Tokyo as a block. Japan has very few friends in Asia. Maybe is the weakest in first round. However, I don't see either UK & Greece backing openly Istanbul. None of them have interests in 2024 and will be hard to justify in front of Madrid team.

As I pointed out in one of the other threads, the Mayor of London sent a business delegation and his deputy to Istanbul a few months ago - he's certainly of the opinion that an Istanbul win would be the best outcome. Whether that transfers to our IOC members, who knows, but I've not heard the UK doing similar things for either of the other bidding cities.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As I pointed out in one of the other threads, the Mayor of London sent a business delegation and his deputy to Istanbul a few months ago - he's certainly of the opinion that an Istanbul win would be the best outcome. Whether that transfers to our IOC members, who knows, but I've not heard the UK doing similar things for either of the other bidding cities.

I've read somewhere that IAG (Iberia/British Airways alliance) will support Madrid 2020 in the planes. I'm gonna look for the link and post it here.

Link to post
Share on other sites

"I don't see Asia hosting 5 'Olympiads' in 12 years." Huh?! :blink: Are you talking about those senseless youth games that were held in Singapore & the upcoming ones in Nanjing? That doesn't count whatsoever. For starters, only the SUMMER Olympics are known as the "Olympiads". So that means the WInter Olympics in PyeongChang don't count either. So TWO Olympiads in 12 years in an ever more emerging continent is definitely within reason.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I never looked at it that way (most likely cuz the youth games don't even register with me) but you're right. I wonder how much of angle that could play in the vote. But I'm starting to think that if Istanbul wins 2020, that Tokyo certainly wouldn't bother again, & ambiguous South Africa won't come out to play yet again either.

"I don't see Asia hosting 5 'Olympiads' in 12 years." Huh?! :blink: Are you talking about those senseless youth games that were held in Singapore & the upcoming ones in Nanjing? That doesn't count whatsoever. For starters, only the SUMMER Olympics are known as the "Olympiads". So that means the WInter Olympics in PyeongChang don't count either. So TWO Olympiads in 12 years in an ever more emerging continent is definitely within reason.

Curious how someone is right about Madrid fearing YOG in Buenos Aires and wrong about Tokyo fearing Singapore & Nanjing. Really curious.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...