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2022: A troubling scenario


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I wish Dick Pound was IOC President, instead of Bach.

Giving 2022 to Beijing while Oslo was still in would have meant IOC committing suicide in public. It would never have happened. Never. The IOC loves when hosts splash it out for them, but after Sochi

From what many of the posters say here, though, it will be marketed as a Krakow bid, with one event in Slovakia, as opposed to a joint Krakow-Slovakia bid. Analagous to Salzburg using the sliding facilities across the border in Germany. So not totally out of the question IMO.

Yes, if that's true, I agree. I'm still not totally clear on what Krakow's plans actually are. Their first proposal had quite a few events in Slovakia. Something tells me there may be some fluctuation on this point.

Well, looks like it's Lviv and Almaty right now.

Neither of which feels right so close to Sochi.

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I used Hambantota as an example of what I was trying to say, I thought it would make more sense with an example :)

I wouldn't put it past Qatar to build some ski hills & bid :lol:

After the hyper engineering seen in Sochi - I'd tend to agree that it must at least be crossing their mind. As to if the IOC would be as easily fooled by their ridiculousness is another thing.

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The USA would have been hard to beat if they had presented a bid here. Just sayin' ^_^

The lack of competition is quite sad.

Say that Munich and/or Oslo decide not to bid by the 14th, so the IOC extends the deadline until say January or February. Does anybody think the USOC would remotely consider putting together a bid? I think if that happens, or at least if Munich doesn't bid, they'd stand a much better chance winning 2022 than 2024. It's unlikely, but I have a feeling with only cities like Krakow, Lviv, and Almaty on the table, the IOC might sway the USOC a bit if that were to happen....

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Say that Munich and/or Oslo decide not to bid by the 14th, so the IOC extends the deadline until say January or February. Does anybody think the USOC would remotely consider putting together a bid? I think if that happens, or at least if Munich doesn't bid, they'd stand a much better chance winning 2022 than 2024. It's unlikely, but I have a feeling with only cities like Krakow, Lviv, and Almaty on the table, the IOC might sway the USOC a bit if that were to happen....

I'm starting to come around to the idea that the USOC might have backed away from 2022 prematurely. It could have been a walk in (especially if Munich doesn't eventuate) with a city like Denver. While that would put Canada in a better position to claim the next NA SOG in 2028/32 - it still wouldn't write the US off completely either - I'd say LA, an East Coast US city, or Chicago, could still mount a formidable 2032/36 SOG bid even with 2022 in the US.

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I sort of tend to think that even if only Lviv, Krakow, and Almaty bid, the IOC will be OK with Almaty. I could be wrong though. I kind of feel like there's not much that could entice the USOC to bid for a WOG at this point, but I could be all wet about that.

I thought Oslo's bid seemed like it was going through, though? Or at least the referendum was over 50%?

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I sort of tend to think that even if only Lviv, Krakow, and Almaty bid, the IOC will be OK with Almaty. I could be wrong though. I kind of feel like there's not much that could entice the USOC to bid for a WOG at this point, but I could be all wet about that.

I thought Oslo's bid seemed like it was going through, though? Or at least the referendum was over 50%?

It sounds like it is....but formally the NOC hasn't approved it quite yet, I believe that comes here in the next week or two. Also, even though the referendum was "over 50%," it really wasn't approved by much, as I recall around 53%. That's not something the IOC likes to see in a bid, considering that Tokyo had around a 90% approval rating with the local public, and as I recall similar numbers were seen in Pyeongchang and Rio's bids. If Oslo does bid and Munich doesn't, unless the deadline is extended I think you can be sure Oslo will win, even with the low ratings.

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Unfortunately, the USOC is for the moment controlled by the Summer federations who are hoping that Durban won't bid for 2024. With USOC chairman Larry Probst an IOC member now, I am sure his ear is to the ground as to developments that can happen in either the 2022 or the 2024 races. If Durban declares, maybe there's a chance the USOC might consider a 2022 bid -- Reno and denver are probably ready to go.

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"Controlled by the summer federations." Jeez.

No.

The USOC knows that Summer Games make more sense for the US right now.

I think it's great they passed on 2022 and I think anybody who thinks they could pull off a 2022 plus 2032 or 2036 double is mistaken. This IOC will never go for that.

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I think that Norway and Sweden will be staying out of this race for the 2022 winter Games like Barcelona Spain, Lviv Ukraine, Almaty Kazakhstan, Munich Germany if pass the referenda and Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina will be the 4 bidding cities to host the 2022 Winter Games leaving it a race between Munich Germany and Almaty Kazakhstan as the frontrunners, It is too soon for Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina and Lviv Ukraine is very much like Russia and Eastern Europe is already hosting the Winter games next year, If Munich Germany does not bid then the event will go to Almaty Kazakhstan and have 3 Olympics Games in Asia in a row, Almaty Kazakhstan is becoming a hub for Winter Sports a new region for the Winter Games Central Asia, Kazakhstan is also a fast booming economy hosting the 2017 World Expo in Astana and 2017 Winter University Games both cities co hosted the 2011 Asian Winter Games.

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I think people should not mix up "approval eatings" from polls with actual referendum results. The polls could always be spun a bit, while in referenda people, if they participate, actually make a choice by voting yes/no.

I'm sure a pre-bid referendum in Tokyo would not have given 90% yes votes, for example.

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^^^

Yeah, let's not get ahead of ourselves. If the referendum passes, we know Munich will be in. It's in the hands of the Bavarian voters, But there's no reason to panic yet.

Even if Munich does fail at the poll hurdle, I can't see the IOC explicitly changing the timetable to hunt up more contenders - if they wind up with only Krakow, Lviv and Almaty, that's who they'll go with. And that would make it a very interesting race to observe from the comfort of GBids. Otherwise, if Munich (or Oslo) are in, it's those as favourites... and then daylight.

Edited by Sir Rols
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I thought I would make a list similiar to what runningrings created for USA 2024 to get a good sense of what stage each city is at for bidding in 2022:

Green- The city has officially applied to bid for the 2022 Winter Olympics

Blue- The city has declared its intentions to bid and will make an official application shortly

Yellow- The city has shown/announced interest in bidding but has yet to officially apply (waiting on referendums, etc.)

Red- Cities/countries that were expected to bid but have since cancelled any plans

Almaty, Kazakhstan

Lviv, Ukraine

Krakow, Poland

Munich, Germany

Oslo, Norway

Stockholm, Sweden

Beijing, China

Harbin, China

Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

USA

Canada

Barcelona, Spain

Finland

Switzerland

Ostersund, Sweden

If any of you disagree with this list or I've made a mistake let me know.

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It is official! Oslo will be one of the applicants for the XXIV Olympic Winter games in 2022.

niflogo150.png

Decisions from the Norwegian sports board meeting No. 27 (30.10.2013)

http://www.idrett.no/nyheter/Sider/vedtak_fra_idrettsstyret_27.aspx

OG / PG 2022 " :

With reference to the letter from the IOC to the National Olympic Committees ( NOC) of 06/06/2013 , the responsible national NOC report to the IOC date. 14.11.2013 , whether a city within a NOCs authority will be seeking an interested candidate for the Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2022 .
1. The Norwegian sports Board gave the President and the Secretary-General 's mandate on behalf of the NIF to submit to the IOC the necessary formal confirmation by the deadline 14.11.2013 , provided that Oslo has sent the necessary confirmations as requested in the letter from the IOC to the NOC of 06/06/2013 , including the Oslo accept the legal
position of "the Court of Arbitration for Sport " ( CAS) .
2. The Norwegian sports Board gave further mandate to the President and the Secretary-General to sign the IOC's " Candida Overture Acceptance procedure " ( CAP ) within 01.12.2013 . Incorporated in this mandate is also a payment from the NOC and Oslo of $ 150,000 - which is a non - refundable fee for this applying process first phase , " Candida Overture Acceptance Fee ". NIF portion of this fee would be 50 % , USD 75.000 , - , and inwith the National Olympic Committee and seeking the city is equal seeks candidates.
3. The Norwegian sports Board gave further mandate to the Presidency and the Secretary-General to find a best and effective form for a governing board in a possibly application committee regarding the further application of OG / PG Oslo , 2022. The Norwegian sports Board emphasized the importance of management excellence, consistent and transparent company, budget and control issues and high national and international experience and expertise related to the national and international confidence in the future.
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Big sigh of relief in Lausanne...

Obviously I hope that Munich passes the referendum and eventually is successful in 2015, but now we definitely already have a safe host option if noone else applies.

Lviv, Krakow and Almaty can just as well pack up.

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Almaty, Kazakhstan

Lviv, Ukraine

Krakow, Poland

Oslo, Norway

Munich, Germany

Stockholm, Sweden

Beijing, China

Harbin, China

Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

USA

Canada

Barcelona, Spain

Finland

Switzerland

Ostersund, Sweden

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Big sigh of relief in Lausanne...

Obviously I hope that Munich passes the referendum and eventually is successful in 2015, but now we definitely already have a safe host option if noone else applies.

Lviv, Krakow and Almaty can just as well pack up.

I'd say Krakow and perhaps Almaty has a slight chance should Munich not pass the referendum, otherwise yes, they are as good as dead. I'm kind of hoping they don't pass the referendum because I'm more of a fan of Oslo...

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I think we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves.

This last confirmation is really just a formality. Nothing has changed; the real crux lies at the highest political level.

The more interesting news from the last couple of weeks, is that our new minister for culture and sports personally supports the bid, but I'm concerned whether that really matters. The fact that the economy no longer show signs of over-heating might actually be the biggest, positive factor as it would make it less irresponsible to intensify investments over a short time span.

The plans are currently undergoing critical review in the ministry and a final yes/no to whether Oslo will actually bid in any meaningful understanding of the word, should rise during the first half of 2014.

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I think we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves.

This last confirmation is really just a formality. Nothing has changed; the real crux lies at the highest political level.

The more interesting news from the last couple of weeks, is that our new minister for culture and sports personally supports the bid, but I'm concerned whether that really matters. The fact that the economy no longer show signs of over-heating might actually be the biggest, positive factor as it would make it less irresponsible to intensify investments over a short time span.

The plans are currently undergoing critical review in the ministry and a final yes/no to whether Oslo will actually bid in any meaningful understanding of the word, should rise during the first half of 2014.

So in other words the government still has yet to give its stamp of approval?

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