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2022: A troubling scenario


stryker
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Oslo passed the referendum in September last year already.

So why are some doubting if Oslo will still be in the race?

@GCL, seriously, I have no idea where you get your choice of Hosts from. Harbin? Anchorage? Almaty? Lol, if China Hosts, it will be Beijing. If America Hosts, it will be Dallas. Kazakhstan won't get an Olympic Games anytime soon.

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So why are some doubting if Oslo will still be in the race?

@GCL, seriously, I have no idea where you get your choice of Hosts from. Harbin? Anchorage? Almaty? Lol, if China Hosts, it will be Beijing. If America Hosts, it will be Dallas. Kazakhstan won't get an Olympic Games anytime soon.

Because the Norwegian govt is split over the decision whether to give the required (by the IOC) financial guarantees. The referendum was not nationwide, but limited to Oslo and got a (slim) majority there. The nationwide opinion polls recently, which may well influence the decision of the govt, are all in a majority against the bid/financial guarantees.

This has been widely discussed on here for half a year already.

As for you ridiculing GCL...there's plenty of reasons for doing so, but I'm willing to bet that Almaty will much sooner host (Winter) Olympics than Dallas (Summer) Olympics. Have you actually followed the recent USA 2024 news, including Dallas not making the shortlist?

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I don't see problems with the calendar as such: A Southern WOG would take place outside the usual winter World Cup seasons. So no regular events would need to be rescheduled, unlike for Qatar 2022.

However, the timing would certainly affect the planning of athletes' preparations & regeneration phases. Thst's probably more difficult to overcome.

But elite athletes train for a season that is X number of months in duration. An OWG during the northern hemisphere summer is going to totally throw the rhythm off where training is concerned.

Plus, countries are going to have to hold Olympic trials in many sports many months before the Games finally take place. Certainly not ideal and not a good way to guarantee you're putting forward the strongest team possible. Either that or the trials would have to be held in the Southern Hemisphere as well, which sounds like a nightmare.

Finally, where do all the northern athletes train I during the months immediately leading up to the Games? Do they all have to go south as well? Are there enough world class training facilities to accommodate them all? Not just ski runs, but sliding tracks?

Scheduling around a Southern Hemisphere OWG is very challenging and shouldn't be dismissed lightly.

That's says nothing of whether northern tv audiences would even tune in to watch skiing in August.

Why go through all these difficult gymnastics just for the sake of getting the Games in the Southern Hemisphere? Particularly when the three prime candidates are all still very weak in winter sports? No athletes benefit. No economies benefit. All that is achieved is bringing about an interesting novelty that will quickly be forgotten or possibly remembered for all the wrong reasons. It doesn't make sense. It's not worth jumping through all those hoops.

Until Argentina, Chile or New Zealand becomes a serious force in winter sports and voices an eagerness to host, there's no point in having this conversation. Particularly when the winter edition of the Games is as beleaguered as it currently is.

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As for you ridiculing GCL...there's plenty of reasons for doing so, but I'm willing to bet that Almaty will much sooner host (Winter) Olympics than Dallas (Summer) Olympics. Have you actually followed the recent USA 2024 news, including Dallas not making the shortlist?

I think he meant Denver (I hope).

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The trouble with this race isn't that it's boring - there's been developments enough - but it's all just a progression of sadness. The Swiss and Germans vote their way out, the Swedes think better, the Poles self-implode and the Ukrainians finally face reality... leaving us with a fairly widely acceptable contender that seems anything but enthusiastic, and two others who will likely last the distance but most people can't raise any enthusiasm for.

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This reminds me a lot of the 2016 YOWG contest. Lillehammer was the only one standing and it took a lot of work on the IOCs part to convince the Norwegian government to move forward. I would strongly suspect that the IOC is actively engaging the Norwegian government and using Royal channels (Prince Frederik and Prince Haakon are good friends) to get the government on side with a bid. These are Norway's Games if they are willing to take them. That puts the Norwegians in the most powerful position any bidder has ever been it. Including making demands of the IOC and the federations that they would not normally accept.

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Fully agree. It's a very unhealthy situation for the WOG when it is nearly impossible to put a bid together in countries such as Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Sweden, or France.

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If you look at the comments on Inside the Games biz about Oslo Norway bid then you can clearly see it's over for Oslo 2022, It's an 2 way race between Almaty Kazakhstan and Beijing China.

No offence, but what is wrong with You? You have some sort of obsession with Kazakhstan. Almaty is not Hosting. Get used to it. They will only Host if Oslo AND Beijing withdraw, which won't happen. Almaty is the outsider.

And to my Post before, I did mean Denver and not Dallas.

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You mean we are NOT accurate???

*gasp* How could that be?

...
...
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By December it will be very likely that it will be an 2 way race between Almaty Kazakhstan and Beijing China which Beijing China will be an high cost games and Almaty Kazakhstan an low cost games, I think the IOC will go to to Almaty Kazakhstan to keep the cost down and have an high cost games with Harbin 8 years later to keep the interest for Europe to bid again an Beijing China 2022 games will likely to keep Europe away for an while.

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  • 2 months later...

OK, it's in there now...in the host city contract...

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/sep/25/olympic-anti-discrimination-clause-sochi-gay-rights-row

Now it remains to be seen whether this will be enforced or its merely lip-service.

I get a 404 error when trying to open the link.

But from the headline, my bet is on lip service. It's the IOC, not Amnesty after all.

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2022 Olympic Winter Games Bid Process: composition of the Evaluation Commission

29/09/2014

The IOC is pleased to announce that the Commission to evaluate the candidatures for the 2022 Olympic Winter Games - Oslo (Norway), Almaty (Kazakhstan) and Beijing (China)* - will be composed of the following members:

Chair Alexander ZHUKOV IOC Member

President, Russian Olympic Committee

Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Sochi Organising Committee for the 2014 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games RUS

IOC Members

Barry MAISTER Vice-President, Oceania National Olympic Committees (ONOC)

Olympic Champion, Hockey, Montreal 1976

Olympian, Mexico City 1968, Munich 1972, Hockey NZL

Adam PENGILLY

IOC Athletes’ Commission representative

Olympian, Turin 2006, Vancouver 2010, Skeleton

Board Member, London Organising Committee for the 2012 Olympic Games and Paralympic Games GBR

Tsunekazu TAKEDA

President, Japanese Olympic Committee

Vice President, Tokyo Organising Committee for the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games

Olympian, Munich 1972, Montreal 1976, Equestrian jumping JPN

Advisors

Caroline ASSALIAN

Association of National Olympic Committees (ANOC) representative

Chief Sport Officer, Canadian Olympic Committee CAN

Dwight BELL

Association of International Olympic Winter Sports Federations (AIOWF) representative

President of the United States Luge Association (1989 – 1998, 2006 – 2010) USA

Rita VAN DRIEL

International Paralympic Committee (IPC) representative

Member at Large, IPC NED

Tatiana DOBROKHVALOVA

Senior Vice-President, Sochi Organising Committee for the 2014 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games RUS

Grant THOMAS

IOC advisor, Infrastructure

Senior Vice President for Venues and Transportation, Salt Lake City Organising Committee for the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games USA

John MCLAUGHLIN

IOC advisor, Finance

Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer, Vancouver Organising Committee for the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games CAN

David STUBBS

IOC advisor, Sustainability

Head of Sustainability, London Organising Committee for the 2012 Olympic Games and Paralympic Games GBR

Tim GAYDA

IOC advisor, Sport

Vice President of Sport, Vancouver Organising Committee for the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games CAN

Joining the Commission will be IOC Olympic Games Executive Director Christophe Dubi and IOC Head of Olympic Bid City Coordination Jacqueline Barrett.

Commenting on the membership of the Commission, IOC President Thomas Bach said, “Each member of the Commission brings a wide range of expertise and experience and understands what it takes to host a sustainable, well-organised and ultimately successful Olympic Winter Games.”

“At a time where we are finalising our discussions around Olympic Agenda 2020, the upcoming visits of the Evaluation Commission will reflect some of the new orientations that we foresee for the bidding process. It is an exciting time for the Olympic Movement, and I rely on the Commission to actively contribute to the shaping of our future,” Bach added.

In that context, the IOC has informed the Candidate Cities that the 2022 host city can anticipate a contribution of the IOC to the success of the Games of an overall estimated value of USD 880 Million. This contribution consists of a share of the revenues of Marketing programmes run by the IOC, a contribution related to broadcast revenues, services provided by Olympic Broadcasting Services as the host broadcaster of the Games and assistance provided to the Organising Committee by the IOC and related entities. In addition, the IOC will also grant other rights and benefits and provide other forms of assistance to the Organising Committee for the success of the Games which are described in the Host City Contract.

Changes that will already apply to the 2022 bidding process include the IOC’s obligation to determine and communicate to the city at the time of its election the full composition of the Olympic programme, and the new wording on non-discrimination relating to the Olympic Games and its participants - based on Fundamental Principle 6 of the Olympic Charter. These changes have been included in the intended final draft Host City Contract for the 2022 Olympic Winter Games which has recently been sent to the Candidate Cities.

The 2022 Candidate Cities have until 7 January 2015 to submit their Candidature Files to the IOC.

After an analysis of these files, the Commission will visit each city between February and March and spend five full days with each bid team. Together they will examine the 14 themes of the IOC’s candidature questionnaire, which includes topics such as vision, legacy and engagement, transport, accommodation, finance and sustainability. The Commission will also visit the competition and non-competition venues proposed in the bid.

The Commission’s report, highlighting the risks and opportunities of the Candidate Cities’ projects, will be published prior to the IOC 2022 Briefing for IOC Members to take place in June 2015 and will be made available on www.olympic.org.

The election of the 2022 host city by the IOC Session will take place in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) on 31 July 2015.

IOC

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Didn't think about this until after my last post, but, one has to wonder if the USOC is regretting passing on 2022 right now. I realize hindsight is 20/20 but it appears any U.S. would have this in the bag if the competition was just Almaty and Beijing. To further speculate, if the U.S. had put forth Denver, despite the memories of 1976, would the IOC be forgiving and say yes considering the competition? I think they would.

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Didn't think about this until after my last post, but, one has to wonder if the USOC is regretting passing on 2022 right now. I realize hindsight is 20/20 but it appears any U.S. would have this in the bag if the competition was just Almaty and Beijing. To further speculate, if the U.S. had put forth Denver, despite the memories of 1976, would the IOC be forgiving and say yes considering the competition? I think they would.

I seriously doubt it. Their odds for 2024 are very favorable and they made it clear they strongly preferred Summer Games. They're positioned well to have a good shot at their dream scenario.

They were clear that the objective was not "any Games we can get ASAP." That's Baron's view, not the USOC's.

Plus, the USOC wanted to put a lot of time into evaluation -- something that was much more possible for 2024 than it was for 2022 at the time that decision was made.

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Didn't think about this until after my last post, but, one has to wonder if the USOC is regretting passing on 2022 right now. I realize hindsight is 20/20 but it appears any U.S. would have this in the bag if the competition was just Almaty and Beijing. To further speculate, if the U.S. had put forth Denver, despite the memories of 1976, would the IOC be forgiving and say yes considering the competition? I think they would.

Didn't we say the same thing about 2020, that a U.S. bid there might have been competitive?

The flipside of that is that if the United States got the 2022 Winter Olympics, 2024 is out the window. 2028 is out the window. Maybe by 2032 you've got a shot, but there are pretty long odds there.

There may be some regrets, but the USOC's approach needs to be about landing the right Olympics at the right time. I agree with Athens.. it's not about getting the first available Olympics, and kudos to the USOC for acting that way for a change.

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