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2022: A troubling scenario


stryker
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In the run-up to a similar poll in Vancouver the vote was expected to be No. It ended up a clear Yes. Like the Polish bid, the surrounding communities--including Whistler, which hosted about 40% of the OWGs--were not included in the vote.

If the Polish vote tanks Krakow, we might see the IOC decide only 2 bids go forward--and offer a call for additional bids to round out the field. Unprecedented circumstances lead to unprecendented actions. Like the 76 OWGs being handed to Innsbruck.

Salt Lake 2022 anyone?

To have only 2 bidders is not unprecedented. Haven't seen it in awhile, but it would hardly be a first. It's not cause to reopen the bidding. We've discussed it here before.. who else would jump into the fray if the IOC were to re-open bidding? Doubtful it'd be anyone from Europe who all said no in the first place. Not Salt Lake.. as Athens noted, the USOC probably won't want to detract from their 2024 aspirations. Maybe Vancouver, but I don't see that happening.

The circumstances in 1976 were that the IOC's host pulled out, so they had 0 cities in the running and had to find an alternate. The IOC has more than 0 cities for 2022. Until that happens, it's as the topic title says, a troubling scenario. It is not cause for unprecedented actions.

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Yeah but the big difference is that Almaty has almost zero experience hosting international calibre winter sporting events. Being ready isn't just about mountains and arenas, it's about sporting culture. Where, for example. will they get the hundreds of officials needed for mountain events--who are mostly local people? Vancouver struggled with this for snowboard and freestyle and it's CANADA.

Beijing is marginally better because of figure skating and short track. But the alpine venues are untested. After the impending Rio fiasco the IOC wants a safe pair of hands. BTW I supported Rio's bid...but it's looking bad.

Salt Lake comes to mind because there's scope to build another village. There's nowhere in Vancouver to do so. Besides the "ZOMG we're gonna make lots of money selling the village" turned out a bust. Zero appetite for that again.

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Yeah but the big difference is that Almaty has almost zero experience hosting international calibre winter sporting events. Being ready isn't just about mountains and arenas, it's about sporting culture. Where, for example. will they get the hundreds of officials needed for mountain events--who are mostly local people? Vancouver struggled with this for snowboard and freestyle and it's CANADA.

Beijing is marginally better because of figure skating and short track. But the alpine venues are untested. After the impending Rio fiasco the IOC wants a safe pair of hands. BTW I supported Rio's bid...but it's looking bad.

Salt Lake comes to mind because there's scope to build another village. There's nowhere in Vancouver to do so. Besides the "ZOMG we're gonna make lots of money selling the village" turned out a bust. Zero appetite for that again.

Almaty hosted the Asian Winter Games in 2011 and will host the Winter Universade in 2017. That's very respectable experience. They don't build venues, leave them empty and hope the IOC will come knocking. There's a reason they are as prepared as they are.

Regarding officials, the host country does not supply them all -- nor should they, or the results would be biased. The IFs supply officials. The host supplies support staff who do not necessarily need in depth knowledge of the events they are helping with. There's plenty of precedent for nations with no experience in a given sport staging successful Games. When was the last time you saw a Japanese bobsled team? And yet Sapporo and Nagano were just fine.

Before pleading for a backup candidate, the IOC would have to eliminate both Almaty and Beijing from the shortlist -- in effect saying "you are not capable of hosting the Games." That won't happen for at least 4 reasons: 1.) they are capable. 2.) The IOC won't risk political backlash of giving offense -- especially where China is concerned. 3.) The IOC want to make sure their brand looks strong and won't want to beg for help.

4.) there's no obvious replacement. In this hypothetical scenario Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Poland would all have said "no." The US and France are looking at Summer Games. Canada just hosted. Who is the IOC going to get that will be so much better than Almaty or Beijing?

The host of the 2022 Games will come from the IOC's shortlist.

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The problem with experience for winter host cities is that winter sport events are few and far between. There are many more opportunities for summer candidates to gain experience. Almaty has hosted and will host two of the four major winter Multi-sport competitions in the world. That's pretty damn good for a winter candidate. Beijing hosting a bunch of fencing tournaments isn't going to help their cause.

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The problem with experience for winter host cities is that winter sport events are few and far between. There are many more opportunities for summer candidates to gain experience. Almaty has hosted and will host two of the four major winter Multi-sport competitions in the world. That's pretty damn good for a winter candidate. Beijing hosting a bunch of fencing tournaments isn't going to help their cause.

And Kazakhstan went 7G 1S 5B...13 medals in London for 12th place- very impressive Olympic performance. This doesn't go unnoticed.

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And Kazakhstan went 7G 1S 5B...13 medals in London for 12th place- very impressive Olympic performance. This doesn't go unnoticed.

Yeah, but that's summer. It doesn't add to Kazakhstan's "winter sporting tradition".

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And Kazakhstan went 7G 1S 5B...13 medals in London for 12th place- very impressive Olympic performance. This doesn't go unnoticed.

I still fail to understand why so many people equate sporting tradition with number of medals won. And yea, especially if you're mixing winter and summer, that's not a compelling argument.

Take South Korea as example. Before Seoul was picked as host, they had never won more than 6 medals at a single Olympics. They had won a grand total of 1 gold medal in their history. That's actually 1 LESS than North Korea had won up to that point. Was their sporting tradition questioned? I doubt it. Since 1988, South Korea has won at least 28 medals at every Summer Olympics. Only once have they finished outside the top 10 in total golds (since I know that's how the rest of the world ranks it). Similarly on the Winter side, South Korea has won more than a few medals, but the number of sports those medals have come in I can count on 1 hand. Number of Koreans to win a medal in a sport other than speed skating.. 1. Ironic perhaps that 1 is better known than any of the speed skaters though. Same thing though.. is anyone questioning Korea's "tradition" in the snow sports or the sliding sports? They're still getting a Winter Olympics anyway.

The short of if is don't judge Kazakhstan's winter tradition by the medal count. They've hosted some fairly prestigious events, certainly nothing on par with the big prize that is the Olympics. And yes, it's still Kazakhstan, relatively unknown to the rest of the world, but if we're talking about their ability and readiness to host a multi-discipline Winter sports event, they've got the edge on that one over Beijing. As opposed to if we're talking about handling the influx of crowds and running an event of that size, that's a different story where there is certainly an edge to Beijing.

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Seoul is hardly an indicative example, though. They were competing against one other bid, from a country that had already hosted the last time the Summer Olympics were in Asia. And that repeat country was also bidding with one of their lesser-known cities. So Seoul's election shouldn't be all that surprising.

Sporting prowess is ONE of those things that make the entire package. As usual, it also depends what you're running up against. Russia's strong winter sports tradition helped them win Sochi 2014. Being one of the few strong winter sports nations that had yet to host a Winter Olympics.

Although, I do agree that it is erroneous to cite Kazahkstan's Summer tally when they're bidding for a winter Games. They only have a total of seven medals (& only one of them gold) at the Winter Games. Even Poland got that many just in Sochi alone. And while medal tallies aren't necessarily the ultimate 'make it or break it' deal, it is however, another check on your Olympic application resume.

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I stand corrected :)

Almaty hosted the Asian Winter Games in 2011 and will host the Winter Universade in 2017. That's very respectable experience. They don't build venues, leave them empty and hope the IOC will come knocking. There's a reason they are as prepared as they are.

Regarding officials, the host country does not supply them all -- nor should they, or the results would be biased. The IFs supply officials. The host supplies support staff who do not necessarily need in depth knowledge of the events they are helping with. There's plenty of precedent for nations with no experience in a given sport staging successful Games. When was the last time you saw a Japanese bobsled team? And yet Sapporo and Nagano were just fine.

Before pleading for a backup candidate, the IOC would have to eliminate both Almaty and Beijing from the shortlist -- in effect saying "you are not capable of hosting the Games." That won't happen for at least 4 reasons: 1.) they are capable. 2.) The IOC won't risk political backlash of giving offense -- especially where China is concerned. 3.) The IOC want to make sure their brand looks strong and won't want to beg for help.
4.) there's no obvious replacement. In this hypothetical scenario Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Poland would all have said "no." The US and France are looking at Summer Games. Canada just hosted. Who is the IOC going to get that will be so much better than Almaty or Beijing?

The host of the 2022 Games will come from the IOC's shortlist.

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It is not totally erroneous to be talking about your summer prowess for a Winter Bid- it gives you some cachet and entry into the club of' successful Olympic Nation's, gives you Olympic champions to roll out at events and bid presentations, it shows you have a professional sport structure than can create champions when it is your turn to host etc.... at Sochi they even rolled out a few summer athletes to carry the flame in the stadium for example.

At very least it cannot hurt your Winter bid to be a successful Summer Olympic nation. There is only one IOC to impress- not a summer and winter one.

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Salt Lake comes to mind because there's scope to build another village. There's nowhere in Vancouver to do so. Besides the "ZOMG we're gonna make lots of money selling the village" turned out a bust. Zero appetite for that again.

Am really surprised that the Vancouver Village was a bust. But that's another major item Olympic wannabee cities have to consider. You (OCOG) have to work w/ the local real estate industry because unleashing say 3,000 units (for the summer) in one stroke (and how many units were in Vancouver?) is just suicide for the real estate industry. Like any business, the real estate industries in every city want to control the # of units released on the market each year becuz that is their lifeblood. The fewer units, the more they can make for less hours. The greater the units released, the smaller and MORE spread out are their commissions. (Atlanta was so wise in getting a major local RE developer on board and getting to GSU to commit to absorb the est. 3,000 new beds the few new bldgs in the Village, created.)

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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Hmmm, I wouldn't be classifying Kazahkstan in the "successful" Summer Olympic category, either. But if we're going to be associating summer prowess with winter aspirations, then China wins that argument hands down. Not to mention that China's winter performance is equal that of Kazakhstan's Summer record.

And while there may be one IOC, there's still TWO different set of Games. Each that require their own set of demands, venues & dealing with two different types of sporting federations, which some may not care about who won what at the Summer Games.

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I think the other major barriers for Lviv and Almaty are governance. The blowback in Sochi was hugely negative for the IOC--worse than Beijing. No one would delude themselves into categorising Kazakhstan as anything less that a vile dictatorship. Zero appetite for that I suspect--and hope.

Ukraine is still an emerging struggling democracy. With the 2016 Rio OSGs looking very shaky--and Brasil has a much more stable government and economy than Ukraine--not much chance of going there just yet.

Norway and Austria get a whack of medals in a handful of sports--but they're in "traditional" OWG sports. Sadly a lot of folks don't view things like short track as important when compared to nordic or alpine or hockey or figure skating. I don't agree with that perspective, but it's there.

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Kazakhstan is not an dictatorship it's an democracy the President is very well like and keeps winning elections Kazakhstan has better relations to the western world then Russia does Kazakhstan is hosting the 2017 World Expo and the Winter University Games which will be an great text event 5 years out from the 2022 Winter Games, Kazakhstan economy is forecast to be 2 times it's size by 2022 as well.

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Kazakhstan is not an dictatorship it's an democracy the President is very well like and keeps winning elections Kazakhstan has better relations to the western world then Russia does Kazakhstan is hosting the 2017 World Expo and the Winter University Games which will be an great text event 5 years out from the 2022 Winter Games, Kazakhstan economy is forecast to be 2 times it's size by 2022 as well.

Maybe that president can promote the Perth Olympic bid.

I guess what they say, "Ignorance is bliss" really is true.

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:lol::D:o:unsure::wacko:

Kazakhstan is not an dictatorship it's an democracy the President is very well like and keeps winning elections Kazakhstan has better relations to the western world then Russia does Kazakhstan is hosting the 2017 World Expo and the Winter University Games which will be an great text event 5 years out from the 2022 Winter Games, Kazakhstan economy is forecast to be 2 times it's size by 2022 as well.

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  • 1 month later...

Well it's now to Almaty, Beijing, Oslo and Ukraine. I really hope that Almaty and Beijing don't get it. If the current IOC president Bach really wants to stop awarding games to another Sochi, then Almaty and Beijing are to be avoided. Civil rights issues are not the only problems of these two places, there's also a huge issue with pollution. They're both ranked in the top 10 worst in the world on pollution as far as large metropolitans go.

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Well it's now to Almaty, Beijing, Oslo and Ukraine. I really hope that Almaty and Beijing don't get it. If the current IOC president Bach really wants to stop awarding games to another Sochi, then Almaty and Beijing are to be avoided. Civil rights issues are not the only problems of these two places, there's also a huge issue with pollution. They're both ranked in the top 10 worst in the world on pollution as far as large metropolitans go.

Naw, pollution's not a problem. China's already selling fresh-air-in-a-can in it's most heavily polluted areas. Just another way for China to generate more money, especially with the increased amount of tourists. :rolleyes:

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The IOC may have no choice but to go to either Almaty or Beijing by late this year. Expect Lviv to be dropped when the short list is announced and I still cannot see the government in Oslo providing the necessary financial support.

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The IOC may have no choice but to go to either Almaty or Beijing by late this year. Expect Lviv to be dropped when the short list is announced and I still cannot see the government in Oslo providing the necessary financial support.

That would be sad because they'll be creating another Sochi situation, and once the 2022 games are over they'll have the same situation for the 2030 winter games bid, no one wants to put in a reasonable bid due to the beijing/almaty games, and only cities creating similar situations will bid again.

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