2022: A troubling scenario

[Tony E Loves Architecture]

I have no reason to be naive. Difference is, when I predict Future Hosts, I say I think it will work out like that, not that it will. With this, Oslo and Krakow will most likely fail Referendum's, but it's not 100 per cent that they will fail. Oslo is still Officially in the Race and Oslo are the favourites. GCL, you say I'm obsessed with Europe before in another thread, but all you bang on about is Asia. Asia got 2018 and 2020. Until Oslo and Krakow withdraw, the IOC won't have a 3rd Olympics in Asia in a row.

[zekekelso]

Until Oslo and Krakow withdraw, the IOC won't have a 3rd Olympics in Asia in a row.

I believe the word you are looking for is "Unless"

[Quaker2001]

I have no reason to be naive. Difference is, when I predict Future Hosts, I say I think it will work out like that, not that it will. With this, Oslo and Krakow will most likely fail Referendum's, but it's not 100 per cent that they will fail. Oslo is still Officially in the Race and Oslo are the favourites. GCL, you say I'm obsessed with Europe before in another thread, but all you bang on about is Asia. Asia got 2018 and 2020. Until Oslo and Krakow withdraw, the IOC won't have a 3rd Olympics in Asia in a row.

Except when you say "2024 WILL BE Europe and 2028 WILL BE Africa" as if it's a statement of fact that we're all supposed to accept.

You're exactly right.. there's a pretty good chance the referendums with Oslo and Krakow will fail. So it's not 100 percent, but it's a lot closer to 100% than 0%. Meaning that yes, Oslo is still officially in the race, but a month from now they may not be. That needs to be factored into their chances now. On that basis, it's hard to call them the favorite. If you want to perceive them that way now, you're entitled to that opinion. But don't lose sight of what may happen (and in your own words is "most likely" to happen) within the next few weeks.

[Athensfan]

I have no reason to be naive. Difference is, when I predict Future Hosts, I say I think it will work out like that, not that it will. With this, Oslo and Krakow will most likely fail Referendum's, but it's not 100 per cent that they will fail. Oslo is still Officially in the Race and Oslo are the favourites. GCL, you say I'm obsessed with Europe before in another thread, but all you bang on about is Asia. Asia got 2018 and 2020. Until Oslo and Krakow withdraw, the IOC won't have a 3rd Olympics in Asia in a row.

You frequently omit the phrase "I think."

I can point to quite a few posts, for example, where you've said "Europe will host 2024." Someone voices dissent and then you repeat the same declaration again as if somehow that makes it more true.

Stop it.

[Tony E Loves Architecture]

You frequently omit the phrase "I think."

I can point to quite a few posts, for example, where you've said "Europe will host 2024." Someone voices dissent and then you repeat the same declaration again as if somehow that makes it more true.

Stop it.

Well, I own up, I'm wrong to say Europe will or Asia will etc will Host. I should say I believe Europe will surely Host 2024.

[baron-pierreIV]

It's not just the IOC having troubles finding suck...err, host cities...but the Int'l beauty pageants as well. Miss Universe thought they had found a sucka this year in Fortaleza, Brazil. But as of two weeks ago, that arrangement was dropped...so even MUO is also host-less for this year and may fall back on their old standby, Las Vegas. Remember, last year, they committed to Moscow and then the Russkies issued their anti-LGBT stance and the organization was locked in.

[Tulsa]

They can't ask for new bids at this point, not unless what they have in front of them is completely unacceptable. As much as we know Lviv has no shot because of the unrest in Ukraine, they're still in the running.

About Lviv, I can't imagine IOC take the risk to choose Lviv, They have never chosen a country where you have a civil war or a war (What's happen exactly it's difficult to know) and moreover Ukraine has have a lot of difficult to be ready for the last Euro in 2012... Definitively even if Lviv doesn't stop their bid, it's impossible for IOC to choose this country...

[p85]

A poll from InsideTheGames.biz

Which of the 2022 Winter Olympic bid cities is most likely to be shortlisted as a candidate?

Krakow has less votes than Lviv.

In other ranking Krakow’s bid was rated worse than Lviv’s (which is a huge slap in the face to the Poles), and in that biased, pro-Oslo article, Krakow’s venues were labeled as “built on potato fields”.

Both articles are often cited by bid’s opponents, just look up any article about referendum in random Polish info website and see the comments.

You shouldn’t be surprised that people here think that the bid was doomed from the beginning, the whole thing is just a waste of money, we should withdraw, and the committee should be tried for huge embezzlement.

Yes, 2022 is a huge troubling scenario.

[mr.bernham]

A poll from InsideTheGames.biz

Which of the 2022 Winter Olympic bid cities is most likely to be shortlisted as a candidate?

Krakow has less votes than Lviv.

In other ranking Krakow’s bid was rated worse than Lviv’s (which is a huge slap in the face to the Poles), and in that biased, pro-Oslo article, Krakow’s venues were labeled as “built on potato fields”.

Both articles are often cited by bid’s opponents, just look up any article about referendum in random Polish info website and see the comments.

You shouldn’t be surprised that people here think that the bid was doomed from the beginning, the whole thing is just a waste of money, we should withdraw, and the committee should be tried for huge embezzlement.

Yes, 2022 is a huge troubling scenario.

Almaty had a higher rating then Beijing? Who's the insurance policy now

[FYI]

It's just a "poll". Nothing to be taking with such a concrete basis. China has the means, the money & the experience to not be considered anything but. The IOC doesn't have the luxury in this race to simply dismiss the proven Chinese.

[zekekelso]

It's just a "poll". Nothing to be taking with such a concrete basis. China has the means, the money & the experience to not be considered anything but. The IOC doesn't have the luxury in this race to simply dismiss the proven Chinese.

It's not "just a poll." It's a poll posted on the internet. And we know everything the internet is 100% true and representative, right?

[Tulsa]

It's not "just a poll." It's a poll posted on the internet. And we know everything the internet is 100% true and representative, right?

No Internet isn't true and representative... You can cheat a poll, and never Internet will be representative... When you do a poll you need to follow a methodology if you want exploit some results and with internet it's very difficult to have operational result.

[zekekelso]

Is there sarcasm in French?

[Tulsa]

Is there sarcasm in French?

Sorry I didn't understand !!!

Sometimes I think everybody is serious here... lol

[stryker]

With the recent news coming out of Oslo and polls in Krakow showing increasing opposition, I'm sure the Chinese right now (if they haven't already) have made note to remind the IOC that Beijing worked once before, the required infrastructure will be in place, and there are none of those pesky referendums which can derail a bid. Of course, I'm sure if asked by the media, as Bach has already commented, there are still five bidders in the race, but he's conveniently either blind to reality or he's putting on a good show for the media. As far as Bach goes, he made a huge mistake when said in a press release that the current bidders should look to the success of Sochi to see the benefits of hosting. Sochi is part of the reason that front runner candidate cities like Munich said no and why public support in Oslo and Krakow is threatening to derail their respective bids. The Lviv bid is dead, and the IOC should've told the Ukrainians a while ago to drop out. The announcement from of Oslo about political support puts their bid on life support. I don't see how at this point that Oslo gets the funding they need. Krakow? The referendum is just under two weeks away and polling shows those opposed to a bid hovering around the 60% mark.

Unless those polls are dramatically off, the Krakow bid ends with the referendum. Oslo may not last much longer afterwards. I raised the possibility of Almaty and Beijing being the only two left standing a month or so ago and even then, I thought it was possible but not likely. Now I'd put the odds of that happening at greater than 50% and if so, Beijing is likely going to be the first city to host both editions of the Olympics. I cannot see them taking a risk on Almaty. The IOC knows Beijing is a sure thing. Going to Asia three times in a row? The IOC would have no choice unless they reopened the bidding window which would draw huge uproars from Almaty and Beijing. If the IOC really wanted to keep Oslo in the race, they'd be making some phone calls asking some of the Norwegian politicians "how much would it take for you to give financial backing to make sure Oslo bids?"

[zekekelso]

Just remember, many people here declared the Tokyo 2020 bid dead based on early polls showing poor public support.

[Quaker2001]

With the recent news coming out of Oslo and polls in Krakow showing increasing opposition, I'm sure the Chinese right now (if they haven't already) have made note to remind the IOC that Beijing worked once before, the required infrastructure will be in place, and there are none of those pesky referendums which can derail a bid. Of course, I'm sure if asked by the media, as Bach has already commented, there are still five bidders in the race, but he's conveniently either blind to reality or he's putting on a good show for the media. As far as Bach goes, he made a huge mistake when said in a press release that the current bidders should look to the success of Sochi to see the benefits of hosting. Sochi is part of the reason that front runner candidate cities like Munich said no and why public support in Oslo and Krakow is threatening to derail their respective bids. The Lviv bid is dead, and the IOC should've told the Ukrainians a while ago to drop out. The announcement from of Oslo about political support puts their bid on life support. I don't see how at this point that Oslo gets the funding they need. Krakow? The referendum is just under two weeks away and polling shows those opposed to a bid hovering around the 60% mark.

Unless those polls are dramatically off, the Krakow bid ends with the referendum. Oslo may not last much longer afterwards. I raised the possibility of Almaty and Beijing being the only two left standing a month or so ago and even then, I thought it was possible but not likely. Now I'd put the odds of that happening at greater than 50% and if so, Beijing is likely going to be the first city to host both editions of the Olympics. I cannot see them taking a risk on Almaty. The IOC knows Beijing is a sure thing. Going to Asia three times in a row? The IOC would have no choice unless they reopened the bidding window which would draw huge uproars from Almaty and Beijing. If the IOC really wanted to keep Oslo in the race, they'd be making some phone calls asking some of the Norwegian politicians "how much would it take for you to give financial backing to make sure Oslo bids?"

Why do the Chinese need to remind the IOC of anything? If Oslo and Krakow are about to die a slow quiet death, why say anything if you're about to be 1 of only 3 entries left in the running (really 2 if we're discounting Lviv). Bach isn't going to go on record and spell doom for Oslo and Krakow. That's not a show for the media. Granted, we're hearing the same type of Roggespeak that we got from his predecessor.

That said, we're fans in a forum. We have the advantage of being able to discuss and speculate what may or may not happen in the next year. From the IOC's standpoint, they have what they have now and a vote in a little over a year. They don't need to connect the dots now like we do here so often. And no, the IOC is not going to reopen bidding. But yea, I'm sure they're trying to keep Oslo and Krakow in the race, not because it's the better option for them, but because it's probably going to look bad if more cities drop out of the running, no matter where they come from.

[StefanMUC]

I'm thinking maybe the IOC would even disregard the lack of governmental guarantee to keep Oslo in. And once they choose it, the government will support anyway.

[Rob2012]

I'm thinking maybe the IOC would even disregard the lack of governmental guarantee to keep Oslo in. And once they choose it, the government will support anyway.

Chicago was still to-ing and fro-ing anout government guarantees well into the candidate stage. Of course, it's a different kettle of fish in one sense because the US is federalised and the finances would've been too, but given how desperate this race is looking, I wouldn't be at all surprised if you're correct. Oslo can easily be rejected later on. I don't see the IOC losing anything by shortlisting Oslo, even with uncertainties over financing.

[PaStKaz]

In Kraków public support increasing now. Maybe it won't be over 50% in the day of referendum but probably it will be invalid due to low attendance. And in times of host election public support will be, i think, no bad. Surely not the best but acceptable.

Of course it's only my prediction and I'm only almost sure about it. Maybe other members from Poland have another opinion but Kraków is back i think. If i can say something like this, however Kraków wasn't out. Just as Oslo.

[p85]

In Kraków public support increasing now. Maybe it won't be over 50% in the day of referendum but probably it will be invalid due to low attendance. And in times of host election public support will be, i think, no bad. Surely not the best but acceptable.

Of course it's only my prediction and I'm only almost sure about it. Maybe other members from Poland have another opinion but Kraków is back i think. If i can say something like this, however Kraków wasn't out. Just as Oslo.

LoveKrakow.pl realised a poll with 36,3% answers supporting the Games, and with 63,7% being against.

http://lovekrakow.pl/aktualnosci/sondaz-lk-krakowianie-przeciwko-igrzyskom-ale-za-budowa-metra_5812.html

The sample was 4,000, but I have some concerns about poll's methodology. LoveKrakow.pl presented anti-Olympic sentiments from the very beginning, and the journalist allegedly tried to be bribed by Jagna's husband is connected with that website.

[Tony E Loves Architecture]

Surely, they should Poll the People of Zakopane and Jasna aswell?

[p85]

Surely, they should Poll the People of Zakopane and Jasna aswell?

Another reason to have concerns about that poll's results.

And please to note, that none poll limited to Krakow/Zakopane/Jasna area was ever published by serious opinion polling institute. I guess results may have varied from those polls hold nationwide, and that conflicts with anti-Krakow-Olympic policy presented by major Polish media.

[jawnbc]

In the run-up to a similar poll in Vancouver the vote was expected to be No. It ended up a clear Yes. Like the Polish bid, the surrounding communities--including Whistler, which hosted about 40% of the OWGs--were not included in the vote.

If the Polish vote tanks Krakow, we might see the IOC decide only 2 bids go forward--and offer a call for additional bids to round out the field. Unprecedented circumstances lead to unprecendented actions. Like the 76 OWGs being handed to Innsbruck.

Salt Lake 2022 anyone?

[Athensfan]

In the run-up to a similar poll in Vancouver the vote was expected to be No. It ended up a clear Yes. Like the Polish bid, the surrounding communities--including Whistler, which hosted about 40% of the OWGs--were not included in the vote.

If the Polish vote tanks Krakow, we might see the IOC decide only 2 bids go forward--and offer a call for additional bids to round out the field. Unprecedented circumstances lead to unprecendented actions. Like the 76 OWGs being handed to Innsbruck.

Salt Lake 2022 anyone?

If you've read this thread, you'll see all sorts of reasons why the IOC will not reopen bidding.

I expect the shortlist to have at least 3 cities: Oslo, Beijing, Almaty. If Krakow's referendum passes, they'll be there too. If Oslo withdraws, it will most likely do so after the selection of the shortlist.

Worst case scenario, Almaty and Beijing will still be standing. The IOC won't ask for additional bids unless a.) none of the existing bids are capable of delivering an Olympics (both Almaty and Beijing are) and b.) there are other interested parties ready to step forward.

With the USOC talking to LA and NYC about 2024, I think there's just about zero chance they'd offer up Salt Lake City for 2022.