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2022: A troubling scenario


stryker
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The race for 2020 will be over in a few months and the race for 2022 will be officially starting. A number of cities have indicated potential interest in bidding but I speculate if some in the IOC are fretting a bit about the 2022 race. Consider the following. Only three cities made a push for 2018. The costs for the Sochi Olympics, albeit nearly everything had to be built from scratch, has gone through the roof. It's been mentioned in another thread how while the Winter Olympics are smaller than their summer counterparts, the venues are much more specific and costly (bobsleigh runs and ski jumps). Looking at the potential field for 2022, both Oslo and Munich are the likely favorites and if one or both of them is in the race then the IOC can breathe easy.

Both Munich and Oslo have referendums coming up that will determine whether or not a bid will go forward. The Munich bid has three separate referendums and the Oslo bid has tepid support right now at best. A nightmare scenario? Both referendums don't have the needed support and both bids end just like the Swiss bid earlier. What would the IOC's next best option be? Ukraine? By all accounts they did well at Euro 2012 but the preparations were troublesome and I'd say preparing for an Olympics is bigger in scope than Euro. Who else? Romania? Georgia? China? A joint bid between Poland and Slovakia (the IOC may not have a choice)? Of course perhaps between now and November another bid comes out such as one from Sweden or Kazakhstan.

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The IOC has survived 2 World Wars,1-candidate-only bidding cycles (1984 and Winter 1980); bidding scandals; having been shafted by one city. It will survive 2022. If it's meant to be; it's meant to be.

As a last resort, and if Istanbul loses, Doha, Dubai and Saudi Arabia can bankroll a revived Sarajevo bid. All that resurgent stuff will make for a compelling theme.

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I agree with baron, what happens was meant to be. The Olympic Movement has survived worse. China was mentioned in the post and I'm very interested to see how Harbin would do against Munich or Oslo. And if China does bid and Munich and Oslo don't, do they become the favorite?

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I agree with baron, what happens was meant to be. The Olympic Movement has survived worse. China was mentioned in the post and I'm very interested to see how Harbin would do against Munich or Oslo. And if China does bid and Munich and Oslo don't, do they become the favorite?

China will probably bid with Beijing if they do bid.

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Seeing that the majority of Oslo citizens oppose a Norwegian bid, we can pretty much say goodbye to an Oslo bid. I hope Munich enters the race to make things a bit more entertaining. Not sure what to say about an Ukraine bid (their preparation for the Euro 2012 was very troublesome despite the event was held without much issues)

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They're not worried. Yes the number of bid cities has been dropping the last few cycles, but all they need is 1 capable city that they can award a 2022 to and then they can worry about 2026 another 4 years from now. Not exactly unprecedented for this to happen and the IOC has survived it before. Don't see why this time would be different

And the costs for Sochi aren't a long term problem either. Clearly this upcoming Olympics is a one time doesn't represent what it would cost other host cities to put on an Olympics. Remember how the buzz after Beijing was how could London possibly top them? Well London certainly didn't spend anywhere near as much as Beijing and they still managed to put on a very successful Olympics. These big spending bids don't have to become the norm. And seeing what is being exposed with Russia right now, perhaps this will be the last of its kind

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He doesn't, but if you consider a first city/country bid in a potential field of "weak" or "lesser city" bids, then you have a reasonable chance of at least getting the Candidate spot.

After all, if it's Sarajevo, Almaty and Tbilisi only bidding, it's a good shot of getting selected.

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No doubt the Olympic movement would survive. My point is I think the costs of staging the Winter Olympics not to mention the fact that the list of viable locations is far fewer than the summer edition, have reached a level where countries are much more hesitant to put in a bid than they otherwise might be. The global economic situation doesn't help matters either. It's all a moot point though if either Oslo and or Munich officially enters the race.

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People do seem to be forgetting about Barcelona - La Molina 2022, especially if Madrid don't win 2020

If the Spanish Olympic Comitee is smart enough, they must do this. A good technical aspect and the recent losses could make a great bid even with a strong Munich. Again, IF they think with their heads, because with that clear sentiment - Why Barcelona did have an SOG and Madrid don't? is too visceral and strong for them.

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After all, if it's Sarajevo, Almaty and Tbilisi only bidding, it's a good shot of getting selected.

Tbilisi would have to count on being the ONLY bidder in the race to be he successor to Sochi. The others would be just about in the same boat too.

If the rst of the Euro possibles drop like flies, it could well end up as charmed timing for anyone from North America.

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Tbilisi would have to count on being the ONLY bidder in the race to be he successor to Sochi. The others would be just about in the same boat too.

If the rst of the Euro possibles drop like flies, it could well end up as charmed timing for anyone from North America.

Who? USA has said no, and I don't think Canada would bid for the same event 12 years after Vancouver

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The Olympics didn't just "survive" in the past when the burdens of hosting made few cities want to bid. The Olympics adapted in order to survive. In particular, they embraced commercialism to get out of the post '76 slump.

Right now, the IOC has rules/preferences in place that make hosting burdonsome. As long as they get great cities wanting to host, there is no need for them to change. But if (when?) they reach the point where bidders start drying up, you can bet they'll adapt once again

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People do seem to be forgetting about Barcelona - La Molina 2022, especially if Madrid don't win 2020

Gromit, just because we haven't mentioned every possible bidder in every post doesn't mean we're forgetting someone.

The reality is that Bubka and the Ukraine seem to be raring to go whereas Barcelona is still very hypothetical and it seems very unlikely that the Spaniards would back a second Castillian Games.

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I'm sure this won't happen, but if Tokyo wins the 2020 Games, maybe the USOC should start thinking about a last-minute bid for 2022. Salt Lake has already expressed interest, and they could probably put together a bid at short notice and relatively low cost. If both Oslo and Munich decide not to bid, the only competition might be bids from Eastern European countries that may or may not be financially feasible. The IOC might not be excited about returning to Salt Lake, but it would be a much safer and surer option than Ukraine, Poland, Kazakhstan, etc. Tokyo 2020 likely means that the U.S. won't get a Summer Games until at least 2032 regardless of whether they host a Winter Games in the 20s, so the USOC might as well throw its hat in the ring.

I still fully expect either Oslo or Munich to bid, so this is likely a moot point, but perhaps the USOC should learn from the 2020 race that it's not a bad idea to have a bid in its back pocket (whether it's Salt Lake for Winter or LA for Summer) in the event of a weak field.

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No doubt the Olympic movement would survive. My point is I think the costs of staging the Winter Olympics not to mention the fact that the list of viable locations is far fewer than the summer edition, have reached a level where countries are much more hesitant to put in a bid than they otherwise might be. The global economic situation doesn't help matters either. It's all a moot point though if either Oslo and or Munich officially enters the race.

Again, let's not base the costs of staging a Winter Olympics on what Sochi is doing. Cities/countries don't NEED to spend $50 billion. It can be done for a lot less, so I don't think everyone out there looks at Sochi as some sort of cautionary tale that they're getting into.

The state of the world economy is what they have to worry about. But that could turn around (hopefully) in the next 4 years. So even if they just had the 1 bidder this time around, it's not to say that guarantees a future trend.

I'm sure this won't happen, but if Tokyo wins the 2020 Games, maybe the USOC should start thinking about a last-minute bid for 2022. Salt Lake has already expressed interest, and they could probably put together a bid at short notice and relatively low cost. If both Oslo and Munich decide not to bid, the only competition might be bids from Eastern European countries that may or may not be financially feasible. The IOC might not be excited about returning to Salt Lake, but it would be a much safer and surer option than Ukraine, Poland, Kazakhstan, etc. Tokyo 2020 likely means that the U.S. won't get a Summer Games until at least 2032 regardless of whether they host a Winter Games in the 20s, so the USOC might as well throw its hat in the ring.

I still fully expect either Oslo or Munich to bid, so this is likely a moot point, but perhaps the USOC should learn from the 2020 race that it's not a bad idea to have a bid in its back pocket (whether it's Salt Lake for Winter or LA for Summer) in the event of a weak field.

That's a tough sell. You're asking a city to potentially commit to spending billions of dollars and to prepare for that effort on very short notice. I'm not sure even Salt Lake would want to do that and they might have their sights set on 2026 or beyond, an Olympics they can fully prepare for without being rushed in.

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I like the idea of Salt Lake setting itself up as the "ready to bid/host on short notice" city. They've got most of the facilities in place and working; they were great (if a bit boring) hosts; the US will always be a safe host country... etc.



Salt Lake doesn't have to spend $billions to host.

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If I were the USOC, I wouldn't consider a last minute bid for 2022 unless the IOC specifically asked me to. That request would obviously have to come through back channels, but without it, I just don't think it makes sense. The USOC is clearly developing a very methodical game plan. Throwing all that out the window for a hail-Mary 2022 bid doesn't add up.

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They may well change their intentions if they see Tbilisi/Borjomi is the best they have to beat. Maybe Reno would be in with a shot after all (heaven help us)!

I brought up this hypothetical 2022 U.S. scenario a few months back, when Switzerland declared game over due to their failed referendum. Some of they nay-say responses you'll see hear again between your post & mine.

Who's to say the USOC hasn't mentioned to any of the Winter hopeful's can you be ready when/if we ask you to. I'm sure they're all still preparing for a 2026 attempt if the USOC finally says no to a 2024 bid cuz they can't come up with a winnable summer candidate/bid. I doubt that they stifled everything simply bcuz that's not at the top of the agenda at the moment.

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I brought up this hypothetical 2022 U.S. scenario a few months back, when Switzerland declared game over due to their failed referendum. Some of they nay-say responses you'll see hear again between your post & mine.

Who's to say the USOC hasn't mentioned to any of the Winter hopeful's can you be ready when/if we ask you to. I'm sure they're all still preparing for a 2026 attempt if the USOC finally says no to a 2024 bid cuz they can't come up with a winnable summer candidate/bid. I doubt that they stifled everything simply bcuz that's not at the top of the agenda at the moment.

But by the same token, what message does it send to the Summer candidates if the USOC suddenly jumps back into the 2022 race? They waited until the 11th hour to finally say no to a 2020 Summer bid. As opposed to 2022 where they made it clear well in advance that they weren't interested in pursuing a bid. So has that much really changed that they'd be willing to flip-flop on that decision? Clearly they had their reasons to drop out of the race then. I know we're using 2020 as a cautionary tale to take another look at 2022, but I don't know that much has changed since that original decision that is going to make the USOC change their mind. Nor do I think after they told the world that 2022 was off the table that they're quietly talking to the Winter hopefuls and telling them to jump at a moment's notice. I think they absolutely stifled talk of 2022 and probably don't have second thoughts about that decision. Like Athens said, the process to find a 2024 bid candidate has been very methodical. I just don't see them rushing through their 2022 candidates to get a bid ready, especially if it's going to hurt efforts for 2024.

Again, all it takes is 1 bid for the IOC to choose a winner. It would be taking a big gamble in terms of strategy to pursue a 2022 bid. If they were going to do that, perhaps they should have thought of that a year ago.

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