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gromit

Will a Munich 2022 bid be favourite?

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Well, I guess it's game(s) over:

A poll published in Sueddeutsche Zeitung today shows a 60% (out of ca. 13000 votes) No result in Munich. It was an online poll and is not representative, but they did a similar poll last year ahead of the referendum on a 3rd airport runway. There the Yes got a slim majority, while in the end the slim majority was on the No side in the referendum.

Even among the Yes voters now, only half had a favourable opinion of the IOC - so that goes along with what I said above earlier.

They must be eternally thankful in Lausanne that Oslo comes to the rescue - all this talk about the quantity of bids is hilarious since it's the quality that decides, and there it seems the IOC will only have one option left after Sunday.

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Polls can be corrupted, remember that. Any negative campaign that seeks to go against the grain often will meddle with polls (particularly online ones).

I'm going to remain optimistic. :)

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I admire your optimism ;-)

The figures may not be representative, but the tendency is definitely there. I fear the Yes campaign didn't really gave an idea to sell their concept or counter-argument the No campaign.

Three days til we know...

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@ Stefan,

such online polls say nothing about the real result of a referendum (and you can't compare it with other ones)...

Just wait and see - the only thing what I really found strange is that the referendum wasn't done together with the Bavarian or with the National elections in september (that would have a guaranteed a high turnout...

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Now that Oslo is in the race, I think we have a (new) frontrunner, even if Munich bids. The Norwegians are much more popluar compared to the Germans and Bach can not lobby for Munich anymore.

Edited by Westfale

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Now that Oslo is in the race, I think we have a (new) frontrunner, even if Munich bids. The Norwegians are much more popluar compared to the Germans and Bach can not lobby for Munich anymore.

I wouldn't be so sure. Oslo would do a great job, but you can't deny that Munich 2022 would be one of the most enigmatic Olympic bids of recent times. Even on this website, a grouping of Olympic bid enthusiasts, it has near unanimous support.

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I wouldn't be so sure. Oslo would do a great job, but you can't deny that Munich 2022 would be one of the most enigmatic Olympic bids of recent times. Even on this website, a grouping of Olympic bid enthusiasts, it has near unanimous support.

+ coming of a defeat which will get it some sympathy

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@StefanMUC - isn´t the Süddeutsche reader manipulated from Thomas Kistner?

He is one of the biggest critics of the IOC and FIFA, and he always write very negative comments about bidding for the WinterGames

just yesterday there was another report from him

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/sport/olympia-bewerbung-von-peking-in-der-abwaertsspirale-1.1811434

and Tuesday he was part of the "Münchner Runde" on BR

and he is was really unsympathically, even the girl from "NOlympia" movement was more sympatically

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Didn't watch Munchner Runde, but his commentary yesterday was spot on: The IOC dies have a serious problem with attracting some dubious bids while others ( like Switzerland, Austria and perhaps Germany) can't get their public behind a bid anymore.

His job is being a journalist - and he's critical, yes, which is a rare thing in nowadays media world which often seems to consist of paid PR reports...

The IOC dies have a serious problem with attracting some dubious bids while others ( like Switzerland, Austria and perhaps Germany) can't get their public behind a bid anymore.

Does, not dies - Freudian slip while typing?! ;-)

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critical is one thing, but when you read his CV then you know he is fighting the IOC and FIFA, and not really care about Munich

the NOlympia girl has really Munich in her heart, but he is just fighting his fight against IOC and FIFA

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Everywhere are the comments so negative. I will never experience Olympic Games in my country.

but this is typically, the negative people are often those who raise her voice

the high ammount of Postal votes give me some new hope

and i saw a poll that Germans support with 80% a munich bid, i know it´s easier to say YES when your city is not involved

but with a high ammount of voters we should reach the 50,1 % ;)

PLEASE MUNICH`S don´t let us down

i want Olympic Games in Germany once, and Munich 2022 is they only realistic chance i see

  • Like 1

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You can also vote NO by postal vote...high turn-out as such is fine, but interpreting as an advantage for the Yes campaign is far-fetched IMO.

Keep all your fingers crossed, people, I'll make a cross on the ballot tomorrow :-) But after all the negativity in comments everywhere, I really doubt it will pass.

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the Atmosphere in GAP was rather negative before the referendum for the 2018 Bid

but it turned out with a YES

so i still hope

my HEART is still hoping for a YES

but my mind tells me we will see a NO :(

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So, if Munich does not bid, the IOC is faced with the choice of (a) a true winter, not yet-hosted nation but where the ski slopes are 380 mi away? (b ) a bi-national bid in some ex-Soviet state (again); or © a repeat host for whom it would be 3rd time in pretty much the same environs played in 1952 and 1994 (very much, a "been there, done that" setting)?

Not terribly good choices. I'd probably go for the Krakow bid. At least Polish folks dances have not yet been featured in any gigantic Opening Ceremony!

Edited by baron-pierreIV
  • Like 1

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Just to summarise ahead of tomorrow the conditions for Munich to go ahead:

It's four separate referendums, all asking the same question (bid yes/no).

For one side to win a valid majority in the referendum, it needs the following votes:

10% of all eligible voters in Munich and the counties of Traunstein (biathlon, cross country) and Berchtesgaden (luge track), 20% in Garmisch

That's at least 107524 votes in Munich, 13966 in Traunstein, 8440 in Berchtesgaden and 4234 in Garmisch. Always provided of course the other side doesn't get more.

If there's less votes on either side, that particular referendum is invalid and merely an opinion poll without binding power.

In order to go ahead with the bid, DOSB and politicians clearly stated they only go for it with a 4:0 Yes, even if Munich approves and a smaller site says No. If the referendum is invalid due to low figures, they want to respect the outcome nonetheless and go with the majority decision whatever that is.

Complicated :-)

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I still think Munich will say yes tomorrow.

The "Ja" side doesn't need to be more passionate about the Games than the "Nein" side being passionate about NOT wanting them. If there are 10 people that say, "Hmm.. Olympics? Sure, okay." then Munich will still win even if there are 9 people that say, "HELL NO! NEVER!"

No German Olympics in your lifetime? You'll probably get confirmation of a German Olympics in 1.5 years from now.

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Right, but they will win if 10 are ok with the Olympics, 9 really REALLY don't want it, and another 2 don't care to vote either way. It's not like there is only 1 more person in Munich that wants the Games than doesn't want it, and that the entire fate of Munich 2022 depends on 20 year old Hans Schmidt to vote.

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