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Is Durban too Ugly to be the 2024 host?


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Then in a scenario like this that you're outlying, it would benefit an Istanbul bid the most. And especially in a small field without Durban in it.

Especially if the Turks are willing to heavily invest in the Games, which they would be.

Actually in that hypothetical squeme, Istanbul could pull off a surprise victory -Without the big contenders Paris and Durban-. Rome is a big challenge, but in the point of surprises, the Turkish economy is growing in big steps, the youth is there... Just need a clear bid and opportunity.

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So all we can basically agree on is:

1) 2024, 28, & 32 are going to Europe, Africa & N America in some order.

2) When Durban bids, they will win.

3) If Paris bids, they will take the Europe slot, as long as they don't wait too long & somewhere like Milan or Istanbul takes it.

4) If Durban doesn't go for 2024, North America has a very good chance, unless Paris get involved.

5) Everything ultimately depends on when Durban want to bid.

Nope.. still don't agree with that. Number 1 is likely if and only if South Africa decides to bid in that timeframe. I continue to disagree with 2. 3 is a maybe, and if they pass on 2024 they may miss their window. 4 is also a maybe. And 5.. yea, let's see when that happens. I'm not ready to say they're the winner the very first time they bid.

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Then in a scenario like this that you're outlying, it would benefit an Istanbul bid the most. And especially in a small field without Durban in it.

Especially if the Turks are willing to heavily invest in the Games, which they would be.

Could they get short listed again? Yes. I don't see them winning though. Even in a smaller field you're going to have at least one solid bid from traditional Europe or North America or Africa. I think the IOC will choose any one of those over Istanbul.

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Could they get short listed again? Yes. I don't see them winning though. Even in a smaller field you're going to have at least one solid bid from traditional Europe or North America or Africa. I think the IOC will choose any one of those over Istanbul.

But weren't we talking about if "traditional Europe" & Africa were out of the equation though, since you said that you could still envision a scenario without either of them.

If we take Paris & Durban out, who else is there that would be "solid" & compelling enough to overthrow the Turks? You've already cited that Rome has their issues & if Munich goes for 2022 & wins, then there's no Berlin 2024 bid. And I don't see the IOC choosing Russia again so soon after the fiasco that Sochi 2014 has been thus far. I still think in a field like that, Istanbul would have the most to gain.

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But weren't we talking about if "traditional Europe" & Africa were out of the equation though, since you said that you could still envision a scenario without either of them.

If we take Paris & Durban out, who else is there that would be "solid" & compelling enough to overthrow the Turks? You've already cited that Rome has their issues & if Munich goes for 2022 & wins, then there's no Berlin 2024 bid. And I don't see the IOC choosing Russia again so soon after the fiasco that Sochi 2014 has been thus far. I still think in a field like that, Istanbul would have the most to gain.

If you want to theorize that Istanbul is only up against Doha and Baku, fine. In that case I guess they win, but that one definitely is a stretch.

I think the IOC would prefer Paris, Rome, Durban, the US, Toronto, Berlin (or Hamburg) to Istanbul. Do you envision a scenario where none of the above bid for 2024? I don't.

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Out of all those, you cited that you could the two most formidable options not entering the 2024 fray. You also went on to say that Rome would still have their main issues. And as far as North America, I still don't see enough of a compelling narrative for the IOC to come running back here if they have another more appealing option. Just bcuz Istanbul didn't do so well for 2020 (yet they still beat out Madrid) doesn't mean that would be the case for 2024.

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Hmm...Toronto is almost certain to bid in 2024, so that leaves Paris and Istanbul as the prime challengers. 2024 will either be one heck of a competitive field, or if these 2 cities drop out of the race, a cakewalk.

Toronto's rival in a y bid race will be a top us city if theu bid. No olympic race is a cakewalk unless you are against Baku and Doha.

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Well, I admit, I fancy their chances as well... and the IOC members have gone way above and beyond their usual encouragement in their exhortations for SA to bid.

So far, it's all talk. There are dozes of rules and criteria the IOC could change to make hosting less burdonsome, helping to bring the games to Africa. They've changed exactly zero of those rules.

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Like some people here seem to think Durban has....

Nobody ever has a guarantee, but Durban will enter any race as one of the favorites if not the favorite. That's not saying they can get away with a shoddy bid.

Just as Beijing 2008 seemed close to a sure thing from the get go, Durban wil come out of the gate with a lot of energy and momentum.

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So far, it's all talk. There are dozes of rules and criteria the IOC could change to make hosting less burdonsome, helping to bring the games to Africa. They've changed exactly zero of those rules.

Thing is, Durban already has a lot of facilities in place to make it less burdonsome than many. Then again, of course they have specific challenges of their own as well. It's that dichotomy that will be threshed over and over if and when if they bid.

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Nobody ever has a guarantee, but Durban will enter any race as one of the favorites if not the favorite. That's not saying they can get away with a shoddy bid.

Just as Beijing 2008 seemed close to a sure thing from the get go, Durban wil come out of the gate with a lot of energy and momentum.

Athens 1996.

It's easy for us to say at this point that Durban would be a formidable opponent and that they would be one of the favorites in whatever race they enter. They probably will be. But they still have to earn it. Doesn't matter where they start, it's how they finish that will matter.

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It's easy for us to say at this point that Durban would be a formidable opponent and that they would be one of the favorites in whatever race they enter. They probably will be. But they still have to earn it. Doesn't matter where they start, it's how they finish that will matter.

Yeah, that's basically how I see it. They'd have to be rated one of the favourites in any race they enter - you just have to see to cautious comments from other potential bidders when they mention Durban as a factor in deciding whether they'll enter the fray or not, on top of all the statements from the various senior IOCers and presidential aspirants.

That said, just like on here when any mention of it comes up, there's bound to be polarities in IOC opinions about their chance, and concerns about their ability, or the wisdom or responsibility of giving it to them. The whole issue would no doubt be THE big debating point here and in the general media when they do decide to go. I'd trust that by the end of that coming race there'd be some consensus reached from that inevitable about whether they'd earned the right to be trusted with the games. I think we'd all agree they'd need to be able to reassure the IOC before they'd make the leap of faith.

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Athens 1996.

It's easy for us to say at this point that Durban would be a formidable opponent and that they would be one of the favorites in whatever race they enter. They probably will be. But they still have to earn it.

Isn't that what he meant though, when he said "that's not saying they can get away with a shoddy bid". No one here is saying that a Durban bid would be handed the Games on a silver platter. The only ones that seem to have that assumption over what others have to say about it are the ones who would support other bids & see Durban as a threat.

Of course the South Africans would have to earn it. Again, no one here is saying that. But the Athens 1996 comparison is certainly not a fair one either. The Greeks lost '96 bcuz they were extremely arrogant & touted a sense of entitlement to the centennial Games. And on top of that, their '96 bid was indeed "shoddy". And yet after all those negatives, they still came runner-up to Atlanta. But somehow I believe the South Africans will play it much smarter than that, much like the Brazilians did for 2016, when they're finally ready to make another bid.

*again, no one here is saying otherwise.

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Isn't that what he meant though, when he said "that's not saying they can get away with a shoddy bid". No one here is saying that a Durban bid would be handed the Games on a silver platter. The only ones that seem to have that assumption over what others have to say about it are the ones who would support other bids & see Durban as a threat.

Of course the South Africans would have to earn it. Again, no one here is saying that. But the Athens 1996 comparison is certainly not a fair one either. The Greeks lost '96 bcuz they were extremely arrogant & touted a sense of entitlement to the centennial Games. And on top of that, their '96 bid was indeed "shoddy". And yet after all those negatives, they still came runner-up to Atlanta. But somehow I believe the South Africans will play it much smarter than that, much like the Brazilians did for 2016, when they're finally ready to make another bid.

*again, no one here is saying otherwise.

Actually, that's EXACTLY what 1 person here is saying. And he's repeated it multiple times, so I don't think it's been mis-represented.

That response was almost more about Beijing 2008 than commentary on Durban. As in Beijing 2008 seemed close to a sure thing, but it doesn't always pan out that way. Obviously the Athens `96 guys made a lot of errors along the way, but still.. Beyond that though, I still think we're putting a little too much into Durban being a favorite because we assume they won't bid until they're ready. I'm less than convinced that will be the case. although hearing that the city may aim for the Commonwealth Games first definitely shows a good deal of restraint when we hear IOC members practically begging them to enter the race, it seems.

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The commonwealth message is not one that has come from the city. As some of you might be aware an event planning session was held to determine what south Africa should bid for up to 2030. Both commonwealth and Olympics were discussed amongst many other events. Why so much more coverage is given to commonwealth baffles me. More will be revealed in early 2014

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Nobody ever has a guarantee, but Durban will enter any race as one of the favorites if not the favorite. That's not saying they can get away with a shoddy bid.

Just as Beijing 2008 2000 seemed close to a sure thing from the get go, Durban wil come out of the gate with a lot of energy and momentum.

Fixed your post :)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sounds like South Africa is going to bid for 2024 or 2028, but haven't decided which yet (Of course, we'd all speculated that was the case here already.)

According to ESPN Olympic Sports (link here: http://espn.go.com/olympics/story/_/id/9980974/south-africa-eyes-2024-2028-olympic-bid):

South Africa is eyeing the 2024 or 2028 Summer Olympics.

[+] Enlargeespn_safrica92_d1_300.jpg
AP Photo/Gillian AllenIn 1992, South Africa sent an integrated team to the Olympics. The country had last been represented by an all-white team in 1960.

IOC executive board member Sam Ramsamy tells The Associated Press the bid is "definitely coming." Ramsamy is the first president of South Africa's united Olympic committee.

He says he will talk with government officials about a bid after the national elections in April or May.

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