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Istanbul's bid is pretty much out the window!


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However, just based on all the things I have heard from friends who have been to Turkey, the country's cost-of-living is quite cheap. It would also not entail a trip to the end of the world (figuratively speaking), as the country's central position between Europe and Asia proper puts within the perimetre of three markets (Europe, Asia and Northern Africa). Japan would be more interesting for the North and South Americans, as well as the Far Easterners.

I can't speak for Turkey and its prices (never been - though ironically, just this morning me and the hubby were pricing tix there for a possible visit there early next year), but, as someone who has been to Japan fairly often and regularly (and whose partner thinks of it as a quick shopping trip destination), I don't think it's as expensive as it once was, or that it has a past reputation for.

Of course, that might be because of the strength at the moment of the Aussie dollar (even London this year seemed far cheaper than I've ever experienced in the past - and Sydney seems to be rising up the ranbks of the more expensive destinations these days).

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Interesting ideas. What did you do with Africa, North America, South America and Oceania? Together they have a lot of votes. I don't think they're totally predictable either. I can definitely see some of them voting for Istanbul (US, Canada).

I'm no so sure about Southeast Asia either. It remains to be seen how Islamic nations will rally around Istanbul.

Finally this whole simulation presupposes that all members vote according to international relations and geopolitics. Because the ballots are secret, members do not have to honor their countries' preferences. It's quite possible someone will vote for the cuisine they prefer, the bid spokesperson they prefer or even the technical bid they prefer.

All these hypotheses are guesswork -- especially until we see the Evaluation Report.

If plusbrilliantsexploits doesn't have any objection ;), I make my hypotheses:

Latin America:

I think there will be three distinct Latin American blocks.

-The first group -Mexico, Chile, Peru, Brasil, Colombia- is most likely to support Tokyo.

  • These countries have strong economical and strategic ties with Japan. Japan is a relevant inversor in these countries
  • As I said in other post, the new mexican government is making a new plan in foreign policy, particularly, with Japan as an strategic ally.
  • In Peru and Brazil, there's a small but important comunity of Japanese people involved in strategic activities -Trade and arts-

-The second group -With Central America- is bounded to North America aspirations. Special cases: Guatemala and Panama. They have diplomatic relations with Taiwan instead China...

If we check the voters for the Latin American vote. We have: 1 vote from Guatemala, 1 from Brazil, 1 from Panama, 1 from Mexico and 1 from Argentina... More advantage to Tokyo...

North America:

I think their decision will depends of their aspirations in 2024 and the potential voters.

Southeast Asia:

I believe this block will be decisive in this race. Malaysia and Indonesia are muslim countries but keep out the religion and they have little in common with Turkey; albeit, they have an interesting relation with Japan. Both countries suffered Japanese domination by the WWII but at these times, Japan is an strategic partner. However, in the case of Malaysia, the relations with China are becoming closer and could be a handicap for Tokyo aspirations. In the case of Thailand, Japan is the second inversor of the country and historical ties. Finally Vietnam is key "friend" of Africa.

Finally, I would say this: Even when it could representate "the first muslim city with the SOG", I don't think Istanbul will have full support for the muslim world. Morocco, Saudi Arabia -Historical adversary- and Iran -Stategic ally of Syria- could pull off the support for a Turkish bid.

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I do think Istanbul CAN win, but so far I haven't seen anything from them that tells me they'll do whatever it takes. They seem a bit laissez faire about this whole process. The want the Games, but they don't seem willing to put in the work.

I do believe an Istanbul victory will benefit North American aspirations for 2024. I'll be very curious to see if they pull off a sprint finish.

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Most have the people I have spoken to think that as of right now Japan has a sizable lead in decided votes (around 30 for the Japanese, a dozen for Madrid and 4 to 6 for Istanbul). Istanbul cannot rely on the Arab/Muslim vote, Turkey is not on the best of terms with many Arab states.

If Istanbul were to win this it would be a bigger comeback than London.

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If plusbrilliantsexploits doesn't have any objection ;), I make my hypotheses:

Latin America:

I think there will be three distinct Latin American blocks.

-The first group -Mexico, Chile, Peru, Brasil, Colombia- is most likely to support Tokyo.

  • These countries have strong economical and strategic ties with Japan. Japan is a relevant inversor in these countries
  • As I said in other post, the new mexican government is making a new plan in foreign policy, particularly, with Japan as an strategic ally.
  • In Peru and Brazil, there's a small but important comunity of Japanese people involved in strategic activities -Trade and arts-

-The second group -With Central America- is bounded to North America aspirations. Special cases: Guatemala and Panama. They have diplomatic relations with Taiwan instead China...

If we check the voters for the Latin American vote. We have: 1 vote from Guatemala, 1 from Brazil, 1 from Panama, 1 from Mexico and 1 from Argentina... More advantage to Tokyo...

North America:

I think their decision will depends of their aspirations in 2024 and the potential voters.

Southeast Asia:

I believe this block will be decisive in this race. Malaysia and Indonesia are muslim countries but keep out the religion and they have little in common with Turkey; albeit, they have an interesting relation with Japan. Both countries suffered Japanese domination by the WWII but at these times, Japan is an strategic partner. However, in the case of Malaysia, the relations with China are becoming closer and could be a handicap for Tokyo aspirations. In the case of Thailand, Japan is the second inversor of the country and historical ties. Finally Vietnam is key "friend" of Africa.

Finally, I would say this: Even when it could representate "the first muslim city with the SOG", I don't think Istanbul will have full support for the muslim world. Morocco, Saudi Arabia -Historical adversary- and Iran -Stategic ally of Syria- could pull off the support for a Turkish bid.

There are 5 Latin American votes; 9 Caribbean & Central American votes. The Latin American votes would tend to favor Madrid in Round One.

North America - 5. Hard to tell how that will split but 5 is such a small inconsequential bloc.

Southeast Asia will probably go Tokyo.

2 biggest blocs: Europe (40) Asian (22). So,my rough guess is that Tokyo 7, Madrid, at least 20; and Istanbul 13. Say, Asia's 22 votes split half-half. So with those 2 blocs, Tokyo gets 18, Madrid 22, Istanbul 24. So Tokyo has to grab a lot of votes from the other blocs to even get past Round One. I'd say it's still anybody's race.

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There are 5 Latin American votes; 9 Caribbean & Central American votes. The Latin American votes would tend to favor Madrid in Round One.

North America - 5. Hard to tell how that will split but 5 is such a small inconsequential bloc.

Southeast Asia will probably go Tokyo.

2 biggest blocs: Europe (40) Asian (22). So,my rough guess is that Tokyo 7, Madrid, at least 20; and Istanbul 13. Say, Asia's 22 votes split half-half. So with those 2 blocs, Tokyo gets 18, Madrid 22, Istanbul 24. So Tokyo has to grab a lot of votes from the other blocs to even get past Round One. I'd say it's still anybody's race.

I have two questions in this hypothesis:

-Is it really a fact than Latin America would actually vote to Madrid in the first round? Because in the last years, the relations between Spain/Latin America are more in terms of love/hate and now with other countries looking another strategic allies -Especially in countries where Japan; maybe Spain didn't make a big difference this time?

-For the European vote... Most of the voters came for the potential bidders in 2024 - 2028, so I have doubts than Madrid could make half of the votes from the European block.

Maybe it's more a feeling, but I don't think Madrid has the advantage or the right support on this race for pass the first round, even when Tokyo and Istanbul have weakness

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There are 5 Latin American votes; 9 Caribbean & Central American votes. The Latin American votes would tend to favor Madrid in Round One.

North America - 5. Hard to tell how that will split but 5 is such a small inconsequential bloc.

Southeast Asia will probably go Tokyo.

2 biggest blocs: Europe (40) Asian (22). So,my rough guess is that Tokyo 7, Madrid, at least 20; and Istanbul 13. Say, Asia's 22 votes split half-half. So with those 2 blocs, Tokyo gets 18, Madrid 22, Istanbul 24. So Tokyo has to grab a lot of votes from the other blocs to even get past Round One. I'd say it's still anybody's race.

I think you're seriously over-estimating Madrid's power. There's no way Tokyo will be first out unless they commit a major blunder. They're the only really safe option. The IOC knows that.

Also, all these predictions are based on geopolitics and international relations. Although current diplomatic relationships (or lack thereof) will certainly play some role, they aren't the end of the story. The IOC is made up of individuals -- not nations. I think they're a lot more idiosyncratic and capricious than most of these predictions acknowledge.

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Very nice analysis plusbrilliantsexploits

I have the opinion the voting will be like the following

Asia: I think Japan may not get any votes from its immediate neighbours because of the recent tense relations. On the other hand Turkey has very good relations with Japan's immediate neighbours. However I think Tokyo will gain the majority of the votes of south-east Asia, although Malaysia and Indonesia could go either way.

Europe: I think Tokyo will score really well in Europe, especially in the West. However I think funny enough Istanbul will score better in the east..the balkans, especially, Greeks would see the benefits of having a local games.

Oceania: I think would all go to Tokyo

North America/Central America: Will be interesting, i think votes may be split there. The first round in central may go Madrid, but then could go either way after that.

South America: Like Central America, the first round of voting may go Madrid, then it may be split. Both Turkey and Japan do have good relations with this continent, and thats why there may be a split. Some members might like the new frontiers idea, like Brazil. Some may want the safe option in Japan.

Africa: Another interesting one, Istanbul may do well here, because Turkey has really improved its relations with this continent. Turkey has gained a lot of respect there especially the aid provided during the Somalian famine. The Turk PM was the first foreign leader in 20 years to visit the crisis ridden nation, which isnt forgotten. There are twice as many Turkish embassy's there since 2000 too.

With the Middle East, besides the Shia/Alevi governments like Syria and Iran, you'd expect Turkey to vote well with the Arab/Sunni states, however you always never know which way the Arabs will turn. Which i think results in a very close race..Turkey needs to really work on the Western European states, there are alot of votes there and Germany, France, Holland, Austria, etc...may say no to Turkey, like they've been saying to Turkey's EU aspirations.

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I think you're seriously over-estimating Madrid's power. There's no way Tokyo will be first out unless they commit a major blunder. They're the only really safe option. The IOC knows that.

Also, all these predictions are based on geopolitics and international relations. Although current diplomatic relationships (or lack thereof) will certainly play some role, they aren't the end of the story. The IOC is made up of individuals -- not nations. I think they're a lot more idiosyncratic and capricious than most of these predictions acknowledge.

My 1st round-guesses above were incomplete on purpose. I did not guestimtate outside of the Euro, Asian and So. American bloc votes. I have no way of knowing how the scattered other votes might go.

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Africa: Another interesting one, Istanbul may do well here, because Turkey has really improved its relations with this continent. Turkey has gained a lot of respect there especially the aid provided during the Somalian famine. The Turk PM was the first foreign leader in 20 years to visit the crisis ridden nation, which isnt forgotten. There are twice as many Turkish embassy's there since 2000 too.

AK, there is no IOC delegate from Somalia. The region is only represented by one Ethiopian delegate. I doubt that Turkey's famine efforts will matter here.

It's really hard to say how the 3rd world countries will vote. It will really be very expensive for them to participate in a Tokyo Games. I hope they will remember that.

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as i knwo from news, greece russia uk and usa supporting istanbul for now

Russian IOC members will vote for Tokyo to clear the way for a European host in 2024. The US members will vote for Tokyo like Easton did in the second round last time. The UK is probably split.

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Russian IOC members will vote for Tokyo to clear the way for a European host in 2024. The US members will vote for Tokyo like Easton did in the second round last time. The UK is probably split.

If the US has aspirations for 2024, I would expect them to vote for Istanbul.

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There are 5 Latin American votes; 9 Caribbean & Central American votes. The Latin American votes would tend to favor Madrid in Round One.

North America - 5. Hard to tell how that will split but 5 is such a small inconsequential bloc.

Southeast Asia will probably go Tokyo.

2 biggest blocs: Europe (40) Asian (22). So,my rough guess is that Tokyo 7, Madrid, at least 20; and Istanbul 13. Say, Asia's 22 votes split half-half. So with those 2 blocs, Tokyo gets 18, Madrid 22, Istanbul 24. So Tokyo has to grab a lot of votes from the other blocs to even get past Round One. I'd say it's still anybody's race.

Interesting scenario, M, but I also do tend to think you're overestimating Madrid. And I think you're letting personal preferences underestimate Tokyo's. And apart from the fact that I also agree that you can't neatly assign potential votes purely along geographical blocs, I also honestly think that those Europeans who might usually go for rotational/bloc voting will be more tempted this time to keep their own options open for 2022-24 than to support their own in this race.

That said, I'll admit the one thing that bothers me about this race is the Madrid factor. My gut feeling still is that they are struggling uphill, but a lot of us have been burned by dismissing them too blithely in the past few races (and I for one sure will admit guilty to that). If nothing else, they've shown themselves to be the masters of dealing and seeking and gaining those first and second preferences, so I wonder how much of a “spoiler” effect they can bring to this one. Still, if I was on the Madrid team, and I was going to try and play the numbers/preferences game, I'd probably lean to trying to get my first preference supporters to switch my votes to Tokyo if they are dispatched on the first round – if nothing else but to keep their options alive for 2024.

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I'll admit the one thing that bothers me about this race is the Madrid factor. My gut feeling still is that they are struggling uphill, but a lot of us have been burned by dismissing them too blithely in the past few races (and I for one sure will admit guilty to that). If nothing else, they've shown themselves to be the masters of dealing and seeking and gaining those first and second preferences, so I wonder how much of a “spoiler” effect they can bring to this one. Still, if I was on the Madrid team, and I was going to try and play the numbers/preferences game, I'd probably lean to trying to get my first preference supporters to switch my votes to Tokyo if they are dispatched on the first round – if nothing else but to keep their options alive for 2024.

I agree with you where Madrid is concerned. They've proven twice that they are stronger than people realize. I can imagine a scenario where Madrid sneaks into the final, but I really can't see them winning. In order for Madrid to get out of the first round either Istanbul or Tokyo will have to badly miscalculate.

I agree with you about Tokyo snapping up Madrid's European votes as well. It makes a great deal of sense. Rio gave everybody a seeming "underdog" to root for. So far, Istanbul really hasn't done that. I don't get the sense that European IOC members would have any qualms about choosing Tokyo over Istanbul. As you mentioned, they've got a lot of incentive to do just that.

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Just came from seeing TAKEN2 if only to relive my visit to Istanbul this summer. And of course, it seems that much of the film was shot in the older backstreets of Istanbul, but it really reinforces my view that it's a very big old city and that any new venues, even the Olympic Village will have to be all on the outskirts of metro Istanbul. I think it will be a nightmade, logistically, to have the Games in Istanbul.

SKYFALL too, has many scenes shot in Istnabul, so that might be the only reason for me to see it. Otherwise, am no great fan of Daniel Craig.

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AK, there is no IOC delegate from Somalia. The region is only represented by one Ethiopian delegate. I doubt that Turkey's famine efforts will matter here.

It's really hard to say how the 3rd world countries will vote. It will really be very expensive for them to participate in a Tokyo Games. I hope they will remember that.

Baron

I was referring more so to the votes of the wider African continent, rather then the one region...however you may be correct it may not matter anyway.

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The interesting wildcard aspect of Istanbul in terms of geopolitics is that it is just about the only European city that could host 2020, and still leave 2024 wide open for a more traditional European host. Granted, with 2022, it could spell a very European start to the 2020's, Istanbul at least is in a grey area, unlike Madrid which is blatantly Europe blocking. If Madrid can do better than we thought in its bid for 2016 following from London, then surely it's not unreasonable to see a city like Paris land 2024 even if 2020 ends up in Istanbul.

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I can't speak for Turkey and its prices (never been - though ironically, just this morning me and the hubby were pricing tix there for a possible visit there early next year), but, as someone who has been to Japan fairly often and regularly (and whose partner thinks of it as a quick shopping trip destination), I don't think it's as expensive as it once was, or that it has a past reputation for.

Of course, that might be because of the strength at the moment of the Aussie dollar (even London this year seemed far cheaper than I've ever experienced in the past - and Sydney seems to be rising up the ranbks of the more expensive destinations these days).

I agree about Japan.

I was there last May and I didn't find it too expensive at all. I think it's one of those cities that you can spend alot of money in, but at the same time, you can comfortably backpack around the place on a budget.

We stayed on the 20 something floor of a hotel in Okubo , a stop away from Shinjuku on the Yamanote - floor to ceiling window with a view over the entire city, it was competitively priced to what you would find it Sydney or even Auckland.

From an Olympic tourist perspective, there is a heck of alot of free stuff to do aswell. Just walking through Kabuki-cho is a free experience in itself. :-)

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I agree about Japan.

I was there last May and I didn't find it too expensive at all. I think it's one of those cities that you can spend alot of money in, but at the same time, you can comfortably backpack around the place on a budget.

We stayed on the 20 something floor of a hotel in Okubo , a stop away from Shinjuku on the Yamanote - floor to ceiling window with a view over the entire city, it was competitively priced to what you would find it Sydney or even Auckland.

From an Olympic tourist perspective, there is a heck of alot of free stuff to do aswell. Just walking through Kabuki-cho is a free experience in itself. :-)

Then the rest of the world has pretty much caught up with Japan/Tokyo's cost of living.

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a big mac menu is about 5 USD in Istanbul,

also easy to access turkish riviera and other touristic destinations with high speed train, airway or busses cheaper then u expecting. istanbul to antalya is about 50-110 USD inc VAT with plane and around 100 with buses.

cheapest choice for visitors in this bid is Turkey. been to barcelona cheaper than paris and rome but expensive than istanbul, and my cousins to japan, and japan i dont think so i can afford a trip for 10 days in tokyo ...just flights are 1000 Euros

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