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The Next Asian Host Olympic Frontier?

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I would love to see India host the Olympics - but I feel that despite its size, it might not happen for 50 years. I don't really think the Olympics means a great deal to people in India either. People often try to make out that it is the "next China", but it's simply not the case as Indian's are not as mobilised by their Government as the Chinese are.

The 2010 Commonwealth Games were not the best, either

Also - as for new Asian frontiers for the Summer Olympics - it's gotta be SE Asia. Currently Bangkok is too unpredictable with social unrest, but it would otherwise be amazing to see a Thai Olympics. Others are KL and Singapore. Jakarta could happen. Ultimately I could see Jakarta, KL, Singapore and Bangkok before Delhi or Mumbai.

What about Manila? I don't know enough about the place to pass judgement.

A competition like Olympics there could boost the number of people in participating more is sports. Field Hockey is their national sport, they could secure a medal in their home also

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What about Manila? I don't know enough about the place to pass judgement.

No. Not in this century. Probably never. As with all SEAsia cities, weather would be a problem during the June-December period. It doesn't just rain heavily here; half the city sinks in filthy floodwater in just a couple of hours. Plus there's no money, no space, no national commitment to sports, poor public transportation, dysfunctional politics, zero military/police force capability.

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No. Not in this century. Probably never. As with all SEAsia cities, weather would be a problem during the June-December period. It doesn't just rain heavily here; half the city sinks in filthy floodwater in just a couple of hours. Plus there's no money, no space, no national commitment to sports, poor public transportation, dysfunctional politics, zero military/police force capability.

Fully agree with you - I also happen to think that there are other countries (including Germany, France, India, the United States, China, South Africa, Canada) that (will) have valid claims to host an Olympic Games - and arguably a stronger case than the Philippines. I'm not sure whether I'd exclude all of Southeast Asia - Singapore and/or Hong Kong would be intriguing alternatives, especially as governance and financial conditions are much more stable.

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Manila is just building and building...even on reclaimed land at the Bay. But there's little free land within the metropolis to accommodate a Village, a huge Olympic Park, 24 other world-class venues.

future-manila-bay-skyline-757233.jpg

Aside from a virtually non-existent sports programme (its near equatorial location is NOT conducive to a lot of sports), the people barely eke out a living...much less indulging in sports. The best Manila does is host SEA Games, and in December when the climate is quite agreeable.

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My personal analysis:

VERY LIKELY:

Kazakhstan:

The best and closest option at the moment. Growing economy, young population (Average: 29.9) and "relative" political stability. Also is getting better results in sports -Historical 13th. place at London-. Kazakhstan is becoming too active in the region; and even when the official moto is designed as "the land of kazakh people", the country have a varied group of ethnic groups. A SOG is a long shot, but a WOG is a good possibility and the last goal is having good results in Sochi. It that happens, so Kazakhstan has an excellent opportunity by 2028 - 2032. Kazakhstan has historical ties not only with Russia and China, but also with the Turkish block -Turkey and Azerbaijan- and a potential muslim block.

LIKELY:

Malaysia:

Geographically, Malaysia is protected by natural inclements -At least in a relative way-, have a good infrastructure in Kuala Lumpur and next strategic points. Also, the prestige of the city is notorious and have internal political stability. Maybe it didn't have the best results yet, but it keeps a good effort -The Chinese School is becoming a force in Malaysia-. I don't think a potential malaysian bid in a short term, but maybe in a 15 - 25 years, especially if Malaysia will improve effective foreign relations -Which the actual government is making with great results- and improve better results in sports.

POSSIBLE / IF:

India:

I think an Indian bid is 50/50 at this moment -Most likely on the negative side-, but it could improve, especially after the disastrous 2010. India has political power, technology and the exotic factor, but still faces obstacles: This year's blackout in Northern India, which is considered the largest power outage in history, affecting 620 million of people and shows the lack of an effective infrastructure; the political tumult inside the country is still remarkable -With weakness in terrorist attacks- and the relations between neighborns is still on the rocks -China, Bangladesh and especially Pakistan-. Finally, it would be a race between cities -Delhi on the north and Hyderabad on the south-. Last but not least, more public interest at the Olympics

Thailand:

Growing economy, relative young population (32.2), exotic factor and respectable results at the Olympics. But the political tumult is remarkable -The last coup d'etat was in 2006 and latter a political crisis lasted two years-, they have a huge problem with the borders -Cambodia and Laos- for the drug and sexual trafficking. And last, Bangkok's fame. The city is beautiful and historical, but being known as a prostitution parade could be an obstacle -Albeit could be an small obstacle-.

LONG SHOT:

Taiwan:

This is a curious case where the menaces of a potential bid came outside of their hands. Taiwan has an excellent infrastructure, tradition at sports and "a history" to sell. But their political status, the confrontation with other countries -China and Japan- and finally the typhoon season make difficult a good bid.

Qatar / United Arab Emirates:

I put them together. They have money, they make impressive cities, they have relative politic influence, but the geographical conditions, the lack of sport tradiction and the 2022 bribery scandal make difficult a Doha/Dubai potential bid... Maybe in 10 years will be different, but right now, it's a long shot.

Iran:

Excellent results at the SOG -17th. place in London-, exotic factor, young population (27.7) and good development of the country. The obstacles: Geopolitics - Inside the country, there's still a politic tumult and polemic rules; the volatile region and confrontation with Saudi Arabia and next the crashing relation with other countries like USA and Israel. Last but not least, the public interest.

Singapore:

Excellent infrastructure, growing economy, developed country... The bad news: The geographical space and the dimensions of a potential SOG -Which could be outside of their hands-. A future land rcovering from the seas will make conflicts with the neighborns.

UNLIKELY:

Indonesia -In this case, I hope don't hurt susceptibilities-:

Indonesia has a growing economy, young population (27.9), and political influence. But the obstacles could be: Political instability, results at the SOG, potential city host and natural inclements.

Vietnam:

Recent plans of improving the infrastructure and the government is trying to clean their image inernationally. Still, a lack of better results in SOG and geographical conditions make difficult a potential bid.

Philippines:

Maybe the most unlikely host of these options. Lack of better results at the SOG, High rate of poverty and marginalization of the population, political instability, lack of better infrastructure in Manila, typhoon season, poor transport system -Example: Jeeps as public transports-

I didn't considerated Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan because they're members of the European Olympic Group... I need to choose which seems possible... Kazakhstan -WOG- and Malaysia -SOG-

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Jakarta, just been successfully choose a new governor, this time the newest governor is known as a clean person, also for the 1st time the vice governor comes from minority ethnic, the chinese one, he also known for a clean politician, now the atmosphere in Indonesia is getting better, the people now believe, that start from Jakarta, we could have a clean government, in the next 2 years, Indonesia will have presidential election, and some clean names already mentioned to be the candidates, if this euphoria, this condition could continue, if we could have a clean government in 2014, i personally believe, Indonesia will be the next SOG host in Asia :), sorry for Malaysia, but you have the chance now, why your government not back the plan ?

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My personal analysis:

VERY LIKELY:

Kazakhstan:

The best and closest option at the moment. Growing economy, young population (Average: 29.9) and "relative" political stability. Also is getting better results in sports -Historical 13th. place at London-. Kazakhstan is becoming too active in the region; and even when the official moto is designed as "the land of kazakh people", the country have a varied group of ethnic groups. A SOG is a long shot, but a WOG is a good possibility and the last goal is having good results in Sochi. It that happens, so Kazakhstan has an excellent opportunity by 2028 - 2032. Kazakhstan has historical ties not only with Russia and China, but also with the Turkish block -Turkey and Azerbaijan- and a potential muslim block.

LIKELY:

Malaysia:

Geographically, Malaysia is protected by natural inclements -At least in a relative way-, have a good infrastructure in Kuala Lumpur and next strategic points. Also, the prestige of the city is notorious and have internal political stability. Maybe it didn't have the best results yet, but it keeps a good effort -The Chinese School is becoming a force in Malaysia-. I don't think a potential malaysian bid in a short term, but maybe in a 15 - 25 years, especially if Malaysia will improve effective foreign relations -Which the actual government is making with great results- and improve better results in sports.

POSSIBLE / IF:

India:

I think an Indian bid is 50/50 at this moment -Most likely on the negative side-, but it could improve, especially after the disastrous 2010. India has political power, technology and the exotic factor, but still faces obstacles: This year's blackout in Northern India, which is considered the largest power outage in history, affecting 620 million of people and shows the lack of an effective infrastructure; the political tumult inside the country is still remarkable -With weakness in terrorist attacks- and the relations between neighborns is still on the rocks -China, Bangladesh and especially Pakistan-. Finally, it would be a race between cities -Delhi on the north and Hyderabad on the south-. Last but not least, more public interest at the Olympics

Thailand:

Growing economy, relative young population (32.2), exotic factor and respectable results at the Olympics. But the political tumult is remarkable -The last coup d'etat was in 2006 and latter a political crisis lasted two years-, they have a huge problem with the borders -Cambodia and Laos- for the drug and sexual trafficking. And last, Bangkok's fame. The city is beautiful and historical, but being known as a prostitution parade could be an obstacle -Albeit could be an small obstacle-.

LONG SHOT:

Taiwan:

This is a curious case where the menaces of a potential bid came outside of their hands. Taiwan has an excellent infrastructure, tradition at sports and "a history" to sell. But their political status, the confrontation with other countries -China and Japan- and finally the typhoon season make difficult a good bid.

Qatar / United Arab Emirates:

I put them together. They have money, they make impressive cities, they have relative politic influence, but the geographical conditions, the lack of sport tradiction and the 2022 bribery scandal make difficult a Doha/Dubai potential bid... Maybe in 10 years will be different, but right now, it's a long shot.

Iran:

Excellent results at the SOG -17th. place in London-, exotic factor, young population (27.7) and good development of the country. The obstacles: Geopolitics - Inside the country, there's still a politic tumult and polemic rules; the volatile region and confrontation with Saudi Arabia and next the crashing relation with other countries like USA and Israel. Last but not least, the public interest.

Singapore:

Excellent infrastructure, growing economy, developed country... The bad news: The geographical space and the dimensions of a potential SOG -Which could be outside of their hands-. A future land rcovering from the seas will make conflicts with the neighborns.

UNLIKELY:

Indonesia -In this case, I hope don't hurt susceptibilities-:

Indonesia has a growing economy, young population (27.9), and political influence. But the obstacles could be: Political instability, results at the SOG, potential city host and natural inclements.

Vietnam:

Recent plans of improving the infrastructure and the government is trying to clean their image inernationally. Still, a lack of better results in SOG and geographical conditions make difficult a potential bid.

Philippines:

Maybe the most unlikely host of these options. Lack of better results at the SOG, High rate of poverty and marginalization of the population, political instability, lack of better infrastructure in Manila, typhoon season, poor transport system -Example: Jeeps as public transports-

I didn't considerated Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan because they're members of the European Olympic Group... I need to choose which seems possible... Kazakhstan -WOG- and Malaysia -SOG-

Thanks for this analysis, Roger. Unfortunately, I disagree with you on a number of your assessments:

Kazakhstan: Not likely anytime soon - the country's effectively a dictatorship. Granted they do have the oil reserves, but does the IOC really need another "stand up for human rights" debate, just a few years after Beijing? Have a look at some of the reports published by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty for some of the facts, as well as well as this article from the Economist on the recent sham elections in that nation.

India: For starters, I'm not an apologist for the current Indian government. From my vantage point, they have done more harm than good to the country. I also agree that the current chances of India winning a bid would be less than 50% (if asked today, I'd say just 10%). That said, here's what we disagree on:

  • Yes, there was a blackout on the Northern Grid, and as always the news media was quick to embrace the story. This reminds me a similar story halfway across the world. Or how about this one? Maybe this one as well? And even parts of the news media (yes, I hate Fox too - but that's another point) have expressed their doubts. California has had a notorious history of blackouts in 2000/01. Yet, no one would hold that against a Los Angeles bid! The truth is (and I've been there a few times) that New Delhi's power output has radically improved. Any Olympic Games there would take place in a period where less energy consumption would take place (due to less air-conditioning being needed).

  • Political stability in India is remarkable, contrary to what you appear to suggest - the current federal government has been in office for the past 8 years, winning two elections in a row. The Conservative government (under AB Vajpayee) preceding it served a full parliamentary term of five years. The states in India rarely feature coalition governments. Granted, there are demonstrations, strikes and heated political discussion. But not more so than, say, in Greece, Spain, Italy, America (did anyone say "Tea Party"?), Canada (remember the Coalition crisis in 2008?) or South Africa (yes, Mr Malema, I'm looking at you). I'd say that even though the political culture in India may not quite resemble the Roman Senate or the Athenians, it would be unfair to characterize that as "tumult" and suggest that the country is unstable. I also didn't see anyone denying a Barcelona bid because Spain has a lively sense of ethnic diversity.

  • Again, I could also turn that argument around. Didn't the United States suffer 3,000 deaths on one particular day? Weren't London and Madrid bombed by terrorists? Didn't Oslo suffer a terrorist attack on 7 July, at the hands of a lone madman? Oh, and what about the Centennial Park bombing in Atlanta 1996 and the biggest Olympic terrorist attack of them all, Munich 1972? Yet I would vigorously disagree with anyone suggesting that the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain and Norway are incapable of hosting these events because they were attacked by terrorists with nefarious motives.

  • Relations to Pakistan won't be a factor. Heaven knows that country is going down fast and won't be much of a threat to India anyway. China knows it can't afford to double-play a nuclear-armed India - and also, because it doesn't want India to completely join the United States-led camp. Bangladesh is dependent on India for economic assistance, as is Nepal and Bhutan. Again, neigbourly relations rarely are an issue: Look at China (relations with practically all its neighbours), Russia (South Ossetian War), West Germany (big red flag at the time of Munich 1972) or South Korea (hello there, North Korea!) for examples of how little the IOC cares about these matters. Unless there's a war, neighbours are merely an inconvenience.

  • The only Indian candidate, if any, will be New Delhi: They have the sports infrastructure, the general wherewithal and transport links to make it happen - as well as the history. Yes, the Commonwealth Games went horribly wrong, thanks to incompetence and sheer greed on part of the political hacks appointed. But these are issues that (upon an honest, self-critical review on part of a new generation of leaders) can be rectified. Hyderabad is not the city. They're not well-known enough (even compared to Bombay, Calcutta or Bangalore), would need even more time than Delhi to assert their credibility and just have little to offer by way of either sporting experience, infrastructure or heritage. Delhi is the melting pot of India, uniting all Indians, including people from Andhra Pradesh. It's the only viable candidate.
  • Well, public interest: If you build it, they will come. However, the stories I've read about increased private-sector participation are quite encouraging.

The biggest obstacle to India? Corruption and a sense of ethics. That is at the core of the problem - but things are happening, hidden from the spotlight of the news media watching out for the next train disaster, natural calamity or government crisis. Indians are increasingly more away and less resigned (compared to my previous trips). Can Delhi host? Absolutely! Unlike some, I don't believe that 2010 said anything about Indians in general, but more about the ruling Congress Party in particular. Indians aren't more incompetent, less intelligent or less disciplined than others. But like everywhere else in the world, you need to create a framework encouraging professionalism and discipline. In a way, the Commonwealth Games disaster was a blessing for the country - because the next time they wade their feet into the water, they will come back with a solid bid plan, and if it's only for their national pride.

Thailand and Indonesia: Forget it, not happening. SIngapore, Hong Kong or Kuala Lumpur are more likely to host the Olympic Games first.

Iran: A challenging proposition, to put it tactfully. I doubt the Mullahs want the Games in their backyard - it would expose them too much to Western influence. And I doubt the IOC would like to be seen kowtowing to another discredited dictatorship.

Qatar: Thanks to the ludicrous FIFA bid, a Doha bid is dead on arrival. It'd be seen as rich sheikhs attempting to buy the Olympic Games. So much for any remaining public respect. Also, how do you want to create the necessary enthusiasm and atmosphere in that country? Compared to that, the Beijing Olympics with their mass choreography would appear to be an outburst of spontaneity!

Dubai: Quite liberal within the Middle East, decent infrastructure and increasingly cosmopolitan image. They might, just about, be able to pull those Games off. Just about...

Taiwan: Perfectly capable, but politically dead-on-arrival.

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Thailand and Indonesia: Forget it, not happening. SIngapore, Hong Kong or Kuala Lumpur are more likely to host the Olympic Games first.

May I ask you the reason ? One not simply says forget it, not happening without any reason, especially if it comes from a foreigner that doesn't know the situation :), Singapore ? too small, Malaysia ? They never get the support from their own govt, Hongkong ? Would you think China will support Hongkong than Guangzhou/Shanghai ? From this 5 candidates, I could see, Bangkok is the front runners, and after that Jakarta, if we in Indonesia, could have clean govt, then we'll bid for 2030s :)

May I ask you the reason ? One does not simply says forget it, not happening without any reason, especially if it comes from a foreigner that doesn't know the situation :), Singapore ? too small, Malaysia ? They never get the support from their own govt, Hongkong ? Would you think China will support Hongkong than Guangzhou/Shanghai ? From this 5 candidates, I could see, Bangkok is the front runners, and after that Jakarta, if we in Indonesia, could have clean govt, then we'll bid for 2030s :)

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May I ask you the reason ? One not simply says forget it, not happening without any reason, especially if it comes from a foreigner that doesn't know the situation :), Singapore ? too small, Malaysia ? They never get the support from their own govt, Hongkong ? Would you think China will support Hongkong than Guangzhou/Shanghai ? From this 5 candidates, I could see, Bangkok is the front runners, and after that Jakarta, if we in Indonesia, could have clean govt, then we'll bid for 2030s :)

Actually, I'm fairly well-acquainted with Indonesian history - from Sukarno via the Suharto era to SBY. I've actively followed the economic and social trends in Indonesia, so it's a bit discourteous of you to disqualify my opinion as that of a seemingly uninformed foreigner. But since you asked this ignorant foreigner about his opinion, I shall be delighted to dispense it:

  • Jakarta gets regularly flooded, due to its proximity to several rivers and sewers being clogged.

  • The Jakarta government's finances are somewhat limited: an overall budget of 4 billion USD, that's about one-fifteenth of Berlin's current debt

  • Further, the city suffers from a major transportation problem: most of your transport is done by walking and cars. An effective and well-used public transport system is virtually non-existent. For a city its size, Jakarta would certainly have to guarantee the building of an efficient metropolitan transport network (before it applies for the Games). Like the MRT in Singapore, for instance. But the earliest your MRT is ready is by 2017, and it doesn't cover a particularly meaningful stretch of the city.

  • Since you brought up the other Southeast Asian cities, you may wish to have a look at this article from the Jakarta Post (not exactly a Western and biased newspaper, is it?). Jakarta lags well behind Singapore, Hongkong, Kuala Lumpur and even Manila. And just in case, here's another survey published in April 2012: Jakarta achieves a laudable 195th (Asians) and 229th (foreigners)

  • Finally, except the rotating Southeast Asian Games, Jakarta has no experience of hosting international sporting events

As for the other countries: Singapore isn't too small, it can host if it wants to - and acquire additional land, where needed for an Olympic Park. Its standard of living far outstrips that of most Asian cities, and it'd be a natural candidate for hosting the Summer Games. If KL puts together a convincing bid, the federal government in Putrajaya will get behind it. Thailand is definitely not hosting - have you ever been to Bangkok? Seriously, the strongest bid? Please!

Concerning Hong Kong, it's Chinese, isn't it? What greater way to bind that particularly recalcitrant part of the country to mainland China than by supporting the Olympic Games there. I agree with you that Shanghai is more likely to be the next Chinese candidate, followed by Hong Kong.

Feel free to discount my assessment - after all, I'm apparently just an ignorant foreigner!

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Maybe it's just me, but I considerate Guangzhou as a threat for Shanghai future bid:

-Named one of the 13 emerging megacities of China

-Center of the cantonese culture

-Southern China's largest city

-Growning GDP inside the country -13,0%

-Multicultural city inside China with african and asian immigration

The most important obstacle for this city is the climate -Typhoon season-.

And name recognition: I think it's safe to venture that more people are familiar with Shanghai than Guangzhou!

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I would love to see India host the Olympics - but I feel that despite its size, it might not happen for 50 years. I don't really think the Olympics means a great deal to people in India either. People often try to make out that it is the "next China", but it's simply not the case as Indian's are not as mobilised by their Government as the Chinese are.

The 2010 Commonwealth Games were not the best, either

I think India needs to prove its mettle in another multi-sports event like the Asian Games, for instance in 2019 or 2023. However, it is vital that the government only be involved in the financing of the event, not its planning and execution. You would need clear safeguards against "just-in-time" delivery of venues, corruption and excessive interference. Further, I stick by my belief that you need a successful businessperson in charge of the organization, who could secure corporate support from across Asia as well. If the Commonwealth Games 2010 proved one thing, it is that you can't have an establishment hack (from outside Delhi at that) in charge of such a complex operation. The Indians also need to embrace foreign consultancies and seek to assuage the news media with initiatives on ethics and poverty.

The Asian Games would also give New Delhi the opportunity to build an Olympic Park in New Delhi, doing the heavy lifting for the Olympic Games in advance. But yes, first, the world needs to see with its own eyes that the Commonwealth Games were a lesson learnt by New Delhi itself. A successful Asian Games could herald the beginning of a new Olympic chapter for the city.

Concerning mobilisation: Well, most Indians were turned off by the evident corruption of Commonwealth Games organizers. That's why there were so many calls for boycotts within the country (hence, the empty seats - well, and thanks to the ticketing disaster too). If the bid is solid and actually takes the public seriously, the people will back the bid. I'm confident of that.

Really? How have you come to this conclusion?

Yeah, I'd be interested in that as well - if anything, the Malaysians are more likely to pull this sort of rabbit out of the proverbial hat!

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Actually, I'm fairly well-acquainted with Indonesian history - from Sukarno via the Suharto era to SBY. I've actively followed the economic and social trends in Indonesia, so it's a bit discourteous of you to disqualify my opinion as that of a seemingly uninformed foreigner. But since you asked this ignorant foreigner about his opinion, I shall be delighted to dispense it:

  • Jakarta gets regularly flooded, due to its proximity to several rivers and sewers being clogged.

  • The Jakarta government's finances are somewhat limited: an overall budget of 4 billion USD, that's about one-fifteenth of Berlin's current debt

  • Further, the city suffers from a major transportation problem: most of your transport is done by walking and cars. An effective and well-used public transport system is virtually non-existent. For a city its size, Jakarta would certainly have to guarantee the building of an efficient metropolitan transport network (before it applies for the Games). Like the MRT in Singapore, for instance. But the earliest your MRT is ready is by 2017, and it doesn't cover a particularly meaningful stretch of the city.

  • Since you brought up the other Southeast Asian cities, you may wish to have a look at this article from the Jakarta Post (not exactly a Western and biased newspaper, is it?). Jakarta lags well behind Singapore, Hongkong, Kuala Lumpur and even Manila. And just in case, here's another survey published in April 2012: Jakarta achieves a laudable 195th (Asians) and 229th (foreigners)

  • Finally, except the rotating Southeast Asian Games, Jakarta has no experience of hosting international sporting events

As for the other countries: Singapore isn't too small, it can host if it wants to - and acquire additional land, where needed for an Olympic Park. Its standard of living far outstrips that of most Asian cities, and it'd be a natural candidate for hosting the Summer Games. If KL puts together a convincing bid, the federal government in Putrajaya will get behind it. Thailand is definitely not hosting - have you ever been to Bangkok? Seriously, the strongest bid? Please!

Concerning Hong Kong, it's Chinese, isn't it? What greater way to bind that particularly recalcitrant part of the country to mainland China than by supporting the Olympic Games there. I agree with you that Shanghai is more likely to be the next Chinese candidate, followed by Hong Kong.

Feel free to discount my assessment - after all, I'm apparently just an ignorant foreigner!

Wow... Okay, first, let me take back my words to you, but your Jakarta Post's link is written in 2008, I do realize, as for now, the crime rate isn't decreasing yet, but as I told in my post before, Jakarta just been successfully choose a new governor, and he's carrying the hope, we do believe that he could bring Jakarta to be a better city, he was proving his capacity at Surakarta :) , the budget for Jakarta in 2012 is about 4.5 billion USD, the mass transport system, although I must admit is still far from world class, but we already had the BRT, and the new governor promise to us that he'll add more than 1000 buses :), you are right about the MRT, the 1st line will be finished in 2016/2017 and it's just from south Jakarta to central Jakarta. 1962 Asiad, 1965 Ganefo, do you know Ganefo ? If you are born in East part of Germany then you'll know what is Ganefo :), and FYI, for now, I 'm not supporting any city in Indonesia to be a host for SOG, we need to clean up our bureaucracy first :). But since this thread is about the next Asian, -well it could be, in the next 10, 20, 30 or even 50 years right ? Then I think, if we could clean up the bureaucracy, Indonesia has a very strong chance :)

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Really? How have you come to this conclusion?

It's just an opinion.

Qatar is making more of an effort to land major international sporting events. Malaysia isn't really trying. Both have climate problems. Qatar also has more money.

I give Qatar the edge over Malaysia because they're building more of a track record and pedigree in sports organization and because they've got more money to throw at the Games.

Personally, I'd prefer to go to Malaysia.

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And name recognition: I think it's safe to venture that more people are familiar with Shanghai than Guangzhou!

Actually, by the time China launches a 2nd summer bid, Shanghai and Guangzhou would've merged into one hyper-megalopolis known as Shangzhou (in the north) and Guanghai (in the south).

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