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Berlin 2036?


msp2032

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This looks fantastic. Just update it a little and go with it again

Add a convincing public relations campaign and a catchy theme song to that effort, run the ads on national television - and Germany would back the bid!

For a successful effort, have a look at one of the

! (had no idea how to embed a Youtube video here!)

Also, don't you love that the demonym "Hamburger" would be an excellent self-reference for one of the current TOP sponsors of the Olympic Movement?

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Munich has good chances to host Winter Olympics in 2022 - the DOSB has to decide which Olympics it wants and where Germany has the better chances to host as soon as possible - furthermore the "Thomas Bach issue" will play a special role.

Berlin would have good chances in an international competition too - you are right with the debts, but the debts are caused by the fact too, that it is our capital and has to built up a new infrastructure - at the same time it has to built a single city out of two parts - it would be good if an area of the former nowhere land of the wall would be blocked for an Olympic Park...

In my view, Germany should play the long game and submit candidacies for both editions of the Olympic Games. Think of it, the federal government (despite all that talk about transfers to Greece, Spain and Portugal) would be able to devote funds to both Olympic Games - provided the Summer edition takes place sometime in the 2030s.

Regardless of the origins of the Berlin debt, the fact remains that popular support in Berlin would be tenuous at best. There is an entire sub-culture of citizens opposed to any venture that reeks of corporate involvement. Berliners have proven that they're not interested in the Olympic Games - and the German NOC should respect that fact. Hamburg is the natural choice, being Germany's second-largest city, with a high level of economic prosperity and obvious advantages as a host. Kiel could even do its second stint as a sailing venue.

Concerning Thomas Bach - it's still another year to go to the election. And knowing the IOC, its intrigues, backroom deals and power plays - I wouldn't be surprised if Bach started feeling the heat come 2013. If politics teaches one thing, it's that the early frontrunner usually doesn't win. We shall see what happens...I personally see more disadvantages than advantages in a German heading the IOC - the need for neutrality (remember, JAS was in office for 5 years before Barcelona got the Games), Bach's comparably staid and business-as-usual personality (although not quite as dull as Jacques Rogge) and his role in the failed Munich 2018 bid: these aren't indicators that he'd necessarily be good news for either German sport or an Olympic Games in Germany.

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Interesting. But that warm-up track is tooooo far, not unless there is a bullet train between the warm-up and the stadium. Also, the Stadium needs a little more space around it for all the ceremonial hoo-haw stuff.

The warm up track is about 400m from the main stadium in the picture.

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That's too far for divas like Usain Bolt. Probably needs a people-mover or some sort of express connection.

Issues like the warm-up track and aspects of the stadium to enable the best presentation during the ceremonies can all be fixed. The key matter is that Hamburg has an attractive plan for the Olympic Park and offers a great scenery for both spectators and the media.

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I have still the "bid brochure" of Hamburg 2012 as PDF - here is a view from the south to the north - with the new Olympic Stadium, Olympic Arena and Olympic Aquatic Centre in the Olympic Park at the southern bank of the river Elbe

UngesichertesVorschau-Dokument.png

Are you able to publish that pdf on this site or send a copy to people? I would be fascinated to look at that in detail.

Whilst I don't think Hamburg would have won in 2012, putting Leipzig forward seemed more than a little bizarre.

I also think that there is no reason why Germany cannot host both the Summer and Winter Games within a short period of time especially if they are at opposite ends of the country. There are only so many countries and cities capable of hosting a Winter Games and it will be a chance for Germany to be 3rd time lucky in the Summer Games - hosting a games where no external political issues overtake the games as occured in '36 and 72' .... you could say that Germany is already overdue another Summer Games :)

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Wow, talk about flinging mud on Berlin big time:

There are further reasons for Berlin not hosting - neither in 2036, nor at any other time in the future. The most fatal one would be its structural debt: It already has a deficit of €63 billion, with the gap projected to widen in the coming years. This is a lot of things, but not a healthy state of financial affairs. Even during the Cold War, given its status as a "front line city", it was dependent on federal handouts. That hasn't stopped, the city relies on both the federal government and European Union structural funds to keep itself afloat.

And you assume that nothing at all will change about Berlin's deficit in the future, not even until 2029 when a decision on a 2036 bid would be made (I'm also not a fan of a Berlin bid for 2036 of all years, by the way)? That's pretty daring, to say the least - especially considering that Berlin is trying to cut that deficit.

Then, there is the politics of Berlin (which serves as both the federal capital of Germany and as a separate state, a bit like Canberra doubling as the ACT in Australia): The city is structurally left-wing, with disproportionately high levels of support for the Greens and the Left Party. These two are the natural coalition partners of the Social Democrats and are very sceptical towards any kind of project involving corporate involvement and major construction. For them, the Olympic Games are nothing but a prestige project for what they perceive as a conglomerate of elites in politics, business and media outlets. Even though these two left-wing parties are in opposition now, they typically control anywhere between 35 to 40% of all seats in Berlin's Legislative Assembly. That may not be enough to stop a formal application, but it would be enough to make quite a bit of noise. And since the IOC looks for political support in excess of 80-85%, Berlin would quite simply start with a major disadvantage.

Munich also has a strong Green faction in its town hall, and the Greens even govern there together with the Social Democrats. That didn't keep Munich away from bidding for 2018. And yes, while the Munich Greens (at least parts of them, not the actually governing parts) created some noise, too, I don't think that the 2018 bid failed because of that.

By the way, Hamburg has a strong Green faction and a considerable Leftist faction in its town hall, too.

It also has a reputation for being the city with the highest rate of welfare recipients and the unemployedin the entire nation. Finally, Berlin's leaders don't exactly inspire a lot of confidence or civic pride - their most recent public undertaking, the opening of an international airport (due for completion in October 2011) has been delayed twice. It will now open in March 2013 (for now). Oh, and the costs were originally supposed to stay below €2.8 billion - now, they have almost gone up to €5 billion.

Berlin's current leaders won't stay in power forever - and there'll be the day when the shame about the new airport will be pretty much forgotten.

If the German NOC made the mistake of choosing Berlin as the German candidate (regardless of which year), I'm certain that I wouldn't be the only German opposing the bid. Berliners don't want the Games - they have proven that in the 1990s. And that is a recipe for a mediocre Games at best...

Oh yes, and because some (not the majority of!) Berliners opposed the bid in the 1990s, it's certain that they will oppose any future bid, too? That's a pretty unfair prejudice, don't you think so? It's as if one wanted to deny Denver another bid for the Winter Games just because its citizens rejected the hosting of the 1976 Games in a referendum in 1972.

And talking about "mediocre Games": Berlin has staged highly praised world championships in athletics in 2009 and equally praised European championships in swimming in 2002. It has even been awarded another edition of the swimming EC in 2014. Every time the Berliners embraced those events staged in their city, so I deem it unfair to judge them only by the opposition in parts of the Berlin population against the 2000 bid.

I don't want to sound like a blind Berlin fan - in fact, I would love Olympic Games in Hamburg, too, just like I would love Olympic Winter Games in Munich. But I think it's pretty shortsighted condemning the biggest city in Germany and excluding it from the very small field of potential German Olympic bid cities. Berlin has proven already that it can stage highly successful sports events, it has great venues in place already now and as I said, the deficit and the disgrace about the airport and the current leaders of the city won't remain forever.

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hosting a games where no external political issues overtake the games as occured in '36 and 72' .... you could say that Germany is already overdue another Summer Games :)

Uh, you might as well include 1916 in that. And in both 1916 and 1936 those "external political issues" were Germany's own doing. As I said earlier, seeing as Germany responded to both previous Berlin SOG awards with a world war, maybe Berlin should not qualify for a 3rd shot.

Now, if you want a city overdue for a summer games, how about Chicago? They've been denied since 1904.

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Wow, talk about flinging mud on Berlin big time:

And you assume that nothing at all will change about Berlin's deficit in the future, not even until 2029 when a decision on a 2036 bid would be made (I'm also not a fan of a Berlin bid for 2036 of all years, by the way)? That's pretty daring, to say the least - especially considering that Berlin is trying to cut that deficit.

Munich also has a strong Green faction in its town hall, and the Greens even govern there together with the Social Democrats. That didn't keep Munich away from bidding for 2018. And yes, while the Munich Greens (at least parts of them, not the actually governing parts) created some noise, too, I don't think that the 2018 bid failed because of that.

By the way, Hamburg has a strong Green faction and a considerable Leftist faction in its town hall, too.

Berlin's current leaders won't stay in power forever - and there'll be the day when the shame about the new airport will be pretty much forgotten.

Oh yes, and because some (not the majority of!) Berliners opposed the bid in the 1990s, it's certain that they will oppose any future bid, too? That's a pretty unfair prejudice, don't you think so? It's as if one wanted to deny Denver another bid for the Winter Games just because its citizens rejected the hosting of the 1976 Games in a referendum in 1972.

And talking about "mediocre Games": Berlin has staged highly praised world championships in athletics in 2009 and equally praised European championships in swimming in 2002. It has even been awarded another edition of the swimming EC in 2014. Every time the Berliners embraced those events staged in their city, so I deem it unfair to judge them only by the opposition in parts of the Berlin population against the 2000 bid.

I don't want to sound like a blind Berlin fan - in fact, I would love Olympic Games in Hamburg, too, just like I would love Olympic Winter Games in Munich. But I think it's pretty shortsighted condemning the biggest city in Germany and excluding it from the very small field of potential German Olympic bid cities. Berlin has proven already that it can stage highly successful sports events, it has great venues in place already now and as I said, the deficit and the disgrace about the airport and the current leaders of the city won't remain forever.

Alright, before I engage in the lines of argument you have put forward, I'd like to clarify that it was most certainly not my intent to "fling mud on Berlin big time". However, if my earlier contribution came across that way, then I regret that and offer my apologies.

Let's examine the individual rebuttals that you have offered:

1) Debt: Yes, it is true that the city government has tried to cut expenses, for instance by making a substantial number of employees redundant in the past few years. The truth remains that the city has a debt in excess of €63 billion, with €1 billion in interest payments being added on top of this fiscal deficit every year - despite all the cuts. Hence, why the city's overall debt is projected to rise to €65 billion by 2015. Berlin isn't cutting the debt at the moment, but the rate at which new debt is taken on! One of the reasons why Berlin isn't doing even worse are federal subsidies and structural funds provided by the European Union. By the way, if you're familiar with Berlin politics, this has been a trend fostered by both Christian Democrats and Social Democrats in their times administering the city (both before and after reunification). Berlin's debt problem is fairly well-publicized within Germany (and even beyond, as there have been articles about it in publications like The Economist, The Financial Times and The New York Times). This does certainly not bode well for the overall assessment by the IOC, which takes these factors into account. The truth is that the city has and is still living well beyond its means.

Finally, think about how Berlin is going to sell the Games as an economic winner to its citizens? They are already resentful of gentrification. For them, the Olympic Games would just be another corporate party to oppose. Plus, the number of tourists in Berlin is already quite high - an Olympic Games would not change that. In fact, if the London effect (namely less tourists heading to Berlin) is pointed out to Berlin supporters, they may think twice.

2) Politics: Philosophically, Berlin's politics are much more tilted toward the left-wing spectrum of politics than those in Hamburg. For instance, the Social Democrats in Hamburg are much more fiscally conservative and have a wider backing of wealthy and middle-class voters than their counterparts in Berlin. Even the Hamburg Greens have to pay heed to this reality, as many of their voters tend to be middle-class as well. The Left Party has no real tradition in Hamburg politics and has been a non-factor, especially with the Social Democrats having recaptured an absolute majority in the last legislative election. That has a lot to do with the economic and social structure of the city - and the fact that in order to govern that city, you must successfully bring together the wealthy, middle class and business in Hamburg.

It is a fact that Berlin leads the nation in terms of unemployment (twice the national average), youth unemployment, welfare recipients (around 16% of all inhabitants) and personal indebtedness. The city is not known for its prosperity - and it would be woefully overwhelmed by the financial challenges brought on by the Olympic Games.

Whilst the Munich bid did not fail because of Green opposition, the latter (combined with the rather parochial protests of some of the farming communities in Garmisch-Partenkirchen) certainly contributed to the IOC favouring Pyeongchang. Have a look at pages 33 and 34 of the Report of the Evaluation Commission for the 2018 Winter Olympic Games. The Greens' opposition was not lost on the visiting IOC members, and the contrast was only amplified by Pyeongchang's near-stratospheric approval ratings (both in the public and the political realms).

It's also interesting to note one further thing: Munich's Green membership defied their party leadership (which, yes, did support Munich 2018) - despite reassurances about the ecological impact and environmental aspects of the Winter Games. No one can guarantee this would not happen in Berlin - especially given the fact that Olympic opponents fire-bombed the branches of corporate sponsors, sent extensive dossiers to the IOC about their opposition and generally managed to dominate media coverage at the time. That represents a stark difference to Denver, when the citizens of that city (having won the bid) peacefully voted down a bond issue on grounds of (what they regarded as) "fiscal responsibility". Yes, tant pis, for the IOC - but the Berlin opponents went a step further, engaged in violent acts and actively sabotaged the Berlin bid.

3) Sports: I don't doubt Berlin's technical capacity to successfully stage the Olympic Games - at all. As for the velodrome: Manchester is acknowledged to have an excellent velodrome, but that didn't stop British officials from favoring London.

Harsh Realities

Berlin has no formal plan or long-term agenda. Hamburg has already published a plan - and there is cross-party support for the Olympic Games in Hamburg. Hamburgers have been conditioned and been positively prepared to welcome the world one day. Berliners have only heard occasional mutterings from their Mayor. He has not really set his mind on winning the Games, hence his reticence in naming a date. Hamburg is setting aside considerable public space for a future Olympic Park. Does Berlin?

I doubt its economic wherewithal, as well as enthusiastic and overwhelming backing from politics, corporations, the media and the German public. I think a lot of states in Germany would only give lukewarm backing to a capital that is already receiving way too much attention in what is a federal republic consisting of 15 other states. Berlin has the largest number of journalists in the nation who would rabidly exploit every screw-up, mistake and misstep of the bid organizers. Compared to that, the Chicago Tribune's opposition to Chicago 2016 would like a children's picnic. And the world of the media and the IOC is an unfair place: The associations with 1936 would be made - not by you and I, perhaps...but they would certainly be milked by left-wing Olympic opponents in Berlin throughout the bid phase. If Munich was a symbol for a dream destroyed by terrorists and an incompetent security apparatus in our country, Berlin stands for the abuse of the Olympics by Hitler and his National Socialist cronies for their nefarious goals. This is harsh, but the reality - and it would be very difficult to erase this bit of history. Can't you imagine all the TV features if the Games were held in Berlin again? A city like Hamburg, with a new Olympic Stadium and a different Olympic Park, could shine a light on the history of a modern, progressive and multicultural Germany in the midst of the European Union.

But most importantly, the public would need to be convinced of a sustainable case for Berlin. Why should this city take on the Olympic Games, when it's hopelessly indebted, has to shut down schools and hospitals, is the welfare and unemployment capital of Germany and where projects like the airport cannot be completed on time and within the set budget?

I'm sorry if I appeared to be unfair, but I have serious concerns about Berlin's capacity to mount a winning bid - not because of technical flaws, but the economic framework of any such bid and the difficulty to secure overwhelming public acceptance within the city. Hence, why I favour a city like Hamburg to win the Summer Games for Germany.

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Uh, you might as well include 1916 in that. And in both 1916 and 1936 those "external political issues" were Germany's own doing. As I said earlier, seeing as Germany responded to both previous Berlin SOG awards with a world war, maybe Berlin should not qualify for a 3rd shot.

Now, if you want a city overdue for a summer games, how about Chicago? They've been denied since 1904.

The United States has had its turn with Olympic Games in the recent past. Los Angeles 1984, Atlanta 1996 and Salt Lake 2002. Three Games within the past 28 years - not bad, I'd say.

Contrast that with Germany: 80 years since the last Winter Olympics and 40 years since the last Summer Olympics. As stated previously, I'd be a passionate supporter of Olympic Games in my country - but for a variety of reasons, I think Berlin is not appropriate to host them. That has little to do with fear of a third edition of a worldwide war, as you seem to indicate.

Today's Germany is not the militarist, invading and authoritarian regime that brought you World Wars I and II - it's a mature, freedom-loving, Western democracy which has made great strides socially, culturally and economically. So, no fear on that front!

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Are you able to publish that pdf on this site or send a copy to people? I would be fascinated to look at that in detail.

Whilst I don't think Hamburg would have won in 2012, putting Leipzig forward seemed more than a little bizarre.

I also think that there is no reason why Germany cannot host both the Summer and Winter Games within a short period of time especially if they are at opposite ends of the country. There are only so many countries and cities capable of hosting a Winter Games and it will be a chance for Germany to be 3rd time lucky in the Summer Games - hosting a games where no external political issues overtake the games as occured in '36 and 72' .... you could say that Germany is already overdue another Summer Games :)

Yes, putting forward Leipzig was an entirely political and stupid decision. The city lacks the metropolitan, cultural and economic gravitas to stage an international multi-sport event like the Olympic Games. When the decision to select Leipzig was announced, I was shocked - it was technically inferior to both Hamburg and Frankfurt and everyone with some knowledge of the IOC's evaluation criteria knew that there was no chance in hell the city would get past the wary IOC Evaluation Commission's scoring threshold.

Indeed, Olympic Games in Germany would be great - but we obviously need a better message than wishing to rectify (self-inflicted) mistakes (1936: National Socialists; 1972: incompetent and naive security arrangements). I really think that this new Germany has a lot to offer in terms of culture, natural beauty and sporting excellence- but most importantly, a spirit of graciousness, friendliness and a passion for welcoming international guests (athletes and visitors) and providing them with a home away from home.These are elements we can definitely build on in a future bid.

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Contrast that with Germany: 80 years since the last Winter Olympics and 40 years since the last Summer Olympics. As stated previously, I'd be a passionate supporter of Olympic Games in my country - but for a variety of reasons, I think Berlin is not appropriate to host them.

No where do I write Germany shouldn't get another shot - I was a big supporter of Munich 2018, and would much rather see the games in Germany than in Italy or Spain. My point was about Berlin. Berlin has been given TWO shots at hosting an Olympic Games. They screwed up both. With so many cities begging for a first shot, I don't see any case for giving Berlin a third.

That has little to do with fear of a third edition of a worldwide war, as you seem to indicate.

It's called sarcasm. I guess this form of humour is not really known in Germany?

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No where do I write Germany shouldn't get another shot - I was a big supporter of Munich 2018, and would much rather see the games in Germany than in Italy or Spain. My point was about Berlin. Berlin has been given TWO shots at hosting an Olympic Games. They screwed up both. With so many cities begging for a first shot, I don't see any case for giving Berlin a third.

It's called sarcasm. I guess this form of humour is not really known in Germany?

Oh, I love sarcasm! But as we all know, there are situations on the internet when the written word doesn't quite convey the nuances of one's trains of thought - sarcasm, irony and the like. So, since you meant it as a joke: My bad! I will admit, though, that we Germans aren't exactly known as inventors of the sarcastic brand of humour!

I'm glad that you supported the Munich 2018 bid and hope that you'd be convinced by a Germany-based bid in the future as well. Yes, Berlin isn't my favourite either...let's indeed give different cities in Germany the chance to shine!

Cheers!

PS: I would have loved Chicago as an Olympic City - you never know, maybe some other time in the not-too-distant future!

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Are you able to publish that pdf on this site or send a copy to people? I would be fascinated to look at that in detail.

I will think about the best way to post it here...

Whilst I don't think Hamburg would have won in 2012, putting Leipzig forward seemed more than a little bizarre.

I also think that there is no reason why Germany cannot host both the Summer and Winter Games within a short period of time especially if they are at opposite ends of the country. There are only so many countries and cities capable of hosting a Winter Games and it will be a chance for Germany to be 3rd time lucky in the Summer Games - hosting a games where no external political issues overtake the games as occured in '36 and 72' .... you could say that Germany is already overdue another Summer Games :)

Well - I think Germany is overdue for Winter as well as for Summer Olympics - I think the DOSB will decide after the 2020 decision if Germany bids for 2022 or 2024...

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Well - I think Germany is overdue for Winter as well as for Summer Olympics - I think the DOSB will decide after the 2020 decision if Germany bids for 2022 or 2024...

In my view, 2024 might shape up to be a difficult year to win the Olympic Games. Even though it hasn't made any official declaration, Paris is widely presumed to be the European favourite for hosting the Summer Games. They are likely to go up against Durban, (probably) Toronto and maybe even an American bid. It would be a crowded field in which it might be difficult to make a mark this early. The only chance that Germany would have hosting the Summer Games this early would be if Paris decides to just withdraw and fight another day. But given the symbolism of the Paris centennial, the French desire to host the Summer Games and their general inclination in favour of prestige projects, I really don't see Paris just saying "thanks, but no thanks".

Consequently, I think Germany should (for now) really throw the proverbial kitchen sink at the 2022 Winter Olympics, try to bag the Games with Munich and then, strategically, move on and make the case for a summer bid in 2028 or (more likely) 2032.

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Now, if you want a city overdue for a summer games, how about Chicago? They've been denied since 1904.

Chicago was selected by the IOC over New York, but the US-government asked the IOC in 1902 to change it to Saint Louis - the IOC agreed in a vote: 14:2... Chicago wasn't denied - the US-government was the reason for the change from Chicago to Saint Louis...

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Well, it all depends on the 2020 decision.

If Istanbul (in my eyes more likely than Madrid) wins the 2020 Olympics, any european bid for 2024 and 2028 would be senseless.

In that case I think the DOSB would throw in a munich bid for 2022. The chances for a summer games bid would have to wait for sometime in

the 2030s and the 2022 winter olympics is the easiest way to win for a good german bid.

But if Tokyo wins the 2020 olympics, what should the DOSB do then? Sure the 2022 games are as easy to win as if Istanbul will be the 2020 host,

but the chances for a european city to win the 2024 a much higher. After South America and Asia in 2016 and 2020 it´s likely that the IOC want to return to europe that year.

So in the end we have to wait till the IOC session next year and its outcome and then we have to wait what the DOSB wants to do.

A (nearly) guaranteed 2022 win for munich or a bid against Paris and maybe Rome or/and Madrid for 2024.

I fear that they don´t take any risks and throw in a munich bid for 2022 and we have to wait a long time for any summer games in germany.

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Chicago was selected by the IOC over New York, but the US-government asked the IOC in 1902 to change it to Saint Louis - the IOC agreed in a vote: 14:2... Chicago wasn't denied - the US-government was the reason for the change from Chicago to Saint Louis...

But, Martin, the IOC, if it was and is the independent body that it claims to be, did not have to bend to Washington's and the MIssouri delegation's wishes. They could've stuck to their guns. So it just proves what the IOC has been from the start -- a wishy-washy organization who sometimes speaks with forked tongue.

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But, Martin, the IOC, if it was and is the independent body that it claims to be, did not have to bend to Washington's and the MIssouri delegation's wishes. They could've stuck to their guns. So it just proves what the IOC has been from the start -- a wishy-washy organization who sometimes speaks with forked tongue.

I don't think you can compare today's IOC with events which happened 108 years ago - St Louis decided to organise a competing event for the Louisiana Purchase Exposition and it became a bit of disaster as the sporting events were completely overshadowed. It could be said that the disaster of 1904, led to the modern Olympics we know today.

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I don't think you can compare today's IOC with events which happened 108 years ago - St Louis decided to organise a competing event for the Louisiana Purchase Exposition and it became a bit of disaster as the sporting events were completely overshadowed. It could be said that the disaster of 1904, led to the modern Olympics we know today.

Look, St. Louis 1904 ONLY FOLLOWED suit of Paris 1900 which had an even bigger world exposition and also used the Olympics as a sideshow.

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