Berlin 2036?

[Olympian2004]

Alright, before I engage in the lines of argument you have put forward, I'd like to clarify that it was most certainly not my intent to "fling mud on Berlin big time". However, if my earlier contribution came across that way, then I regret that and offer my apologies.

You apologise - and then you continue flinging mud. Sorry, but it really comes across this way, even now. And I tell you why:

Finally, think about how Berlin is going to sell the Games as an economic winner to its citizens? They are already resentful of gentrification. For them, the Olympic Games would just be another corporate party to oppose.

Come on, the gentrification topic and Olympic Games are two completely different cups of tea! That's what I find appalling about your rationale: That you take single examples of "civil unrest" (so to speak) in Berlin as proof for a general resistance of the city's population as a whole.

And by the way, regarding Hamburg: There we talk about a city where the majority of voters toppled a whole school reform planned by the city government. So let's not pretend that the people of Hamburg are always content and don't know the word recalcitrance. Nevertheless, I would never make the mistake of implying that they are too recalcitrant to accept Olympic Games in their city.

It is a fact that Berlin leads the nation in terms of unemployment (twice the national average), youth unemployment, welfare recipients (around 16% of all inhabitants) and personal indebtedness. The city is not known for its prosperity - and it would be woefully overwhelmed by the financial challenges brought on by the Olympic Games.

Again, we don't know how Berlin will develop in the future. 2029 (for example) is still far away, and it's pretty bold to assume that it will always stay a city with high debts and unemployment.

It's also interesting to note one further thing: Munich's Green membership defied their party leadership (which, yes, did support Munich 2018) - despite reassurances about the ecological impact and environmental aspects of the Winter Games. No one can guarantee this would not happen in Berlin - especially given the fact that Olympic opponents fire-bombed the branches of corporate sponsors, sent extensive dossiers to the IOC about their opposition and generally managed to dominate media coverage at the time

No one could guarantee either that this wouldn't happen in Hamburg or any other German city. Furthermore, I have to repeat it: What annoys me is that you always mention what happened in 1993 and then insinuate that Berlin (or parts of it) would present the same kind of opposition to any future Olympic bid. Berlin in 1993 still was a mentally separated city with strong economical, social and ideological problems to face shortly after reunification. You can't compare the situation then to today's situation and probably also not to the (assumed) situation in 10 or 20 years.

Berlin has no formal plan or long-term agenda. Hamburg has already published a plan - and there is cross-party support for the Olympic Games in Hamburg. Hamburgers have been conditioned and been positively prepared to welcome the world one day. Berliners have only heard occasional mutterings from their Mayor.

As if the Hamburg bid plans after 2003 were anything more than some occasional mutterings from their mayor or other dignitaries... Of course Berlin hasn't prepared a whole elaborate bid plan because it didn't bid within the past 20 years, for God's sake. Hamburg can build on what it prepared for the 2012 race, OK. Good for them. But one day, every Olympic bid (including Hamburg's 2012 bid) starts with the mutterings of the mayor or some other dignitary. And I can't blame neither the Hamburg nor the Berlin mayor if they just keep it at mutterings at this point in time, regarding that Munich currently is the top priority for a German Olympic bid, namely for the 2022 Winter Games.

I doubt its economic wherewithal, as well as enthusiastic and overwhelming backing from politics, corporations, the media and the German public. I think a lot of states in Germany would only give lukewarm backing to a capital that is already receiving way too much attention in what is a federal republic consisting of 15 other states.

I now smell severe "anti-Berlinism" as the main cause for your anti-Berlin-bid stance.

Berlin has the largest number of journalists in the nation who would rabidly exploit every screw-up, mistake and misstep of the bid organizers.

As if this would be any different in Hamburg or any other German city. Exploitative journalists exist everywhere, not only in Berlin.

The associations with 1936 would be made - not by you and I, perhaps...but they would certainly be milked by left-wing Olympic opponents in Berlin throughout the bid phase. If Munich was a symbol for a dream destroyed by terrorists and an incompetent security apparatus in our country, Berlin stands for the abuse of the Olympics by Hitler and his National Socialist cronies for their nefarious goals. This is harsh, but the reality - and it would be very difficult to erase this bit of history. Can't you imagine all the TV features if the Games were held in Berlin again? A city like Hamburg, with a new Olympic Stadium and a different Olympic Park, could shine a light on the history of a modern, progressive and multicultural Germany in the midst of the European Union.

The associations didn't play that much of a role either when the 2009 IAAF World Championships were staged in that very Olympic Stadium which once has been tainted by the "Hitler Games". Yes, there would be associations made if the Olympic Games were staged there again. But at the same time, most observers would also know that many years have passed since 1936 and that Berlin has staged much-acclaimed sports events meanwhile, also in that stadium. And why Berlin as national capital which has overcome war and separation and has changed a lot especially since reunification can't be an example for modernity, progress and multiculturalism, is really beyond me.

Again, I would wholeheartedly support also a Hamburg bid and am really not a "Berlin maniac". But supporting one city shouldn't mean that one should put down the other. And that's what you still do, in my opinion. Negative campaigning is a pretty bad way of advertising one's own favourite city.

[plusbrilliantsexploits]

You apologise - and then you continue flinging mud. Sorry, but it really comes across this way, even now. And I tell you why:

Come on, the gentrification topic and Olympic Games are two completely different cups of tea! That's what I find appalling about your rationale: That you take single examples of "civil unrest" (so to speak) in Berlin as proof for a general resistance of the city's population as a whole.

And by the way, regarding Hamburg: There we talk about a city where the majority of voters toppled a whole school reform planned by the city government. So let's not pretend that the people of Hamburg are always content and don't know the word recalcitrance. Nevertheless, I would never make the mistake of implying that they are too recalcitrant to accept Olympic Games in their city.

Again, we don't know how Berlin will develop in the future. 2029 (for example) is still far away, and it's pretty bold to assume that it will always stay a city with high debts and unemployment.

No one could guarantee either that this wouldn't happen in Hamburg or any other German city. Furthermore, I have to repeat it: What annoys me is that you always mention what happened in 1993 and then insinuate that Berlin (or parts of it) would present the same kind of opposition to any future Olympic bid. Berlin in 1993 still was a mentally separated city with strong economical, social and ideological problems to face shortly after reunification. You can't compare the situation then to today's situation and probably also not to the (assumed) situation in 10 or 20 years.

As if the Hamburg bid plans after 2003 were anything more than some occasional mutterings from their mayor or other dignitaries... Of course Berlin hasn't prepared a whole elaborate bid plan because it didn't bid within the past 20 years, for God's sake. Hamburg can build on what it prepared for the 2012 race, OK. Good for them. But one day, every Olympic bid (including Hamburg's 2012 bid) starts with the mutterings of the mayor or some other dignitary. And I can't blame neither the Hamburg nor the Berlin mayor if they just keep it at mutterings at this point in time, regarding that Munich currently is the top priority for a German Olympic bid, namely for the 2022 Winter Games.

I now smell severe "anti-Berlinism" as the main cause for your anti-Berlin-bid stance.

As if this would be any different in Hamburg or any other German city. Exploitative journalists exist everywhere, not only in Berlin.

The associations didn't play that much of a role either when the 2009 IAAF World Championships were staged in that very Olympic Stadium which once has been tainted by the "Hitler Games". Yes, there would be associations made if the Olympic Games were staged there again. But at the same time, most observers would also know that many years have passed since 1936 and that Berlin has staged much-acclaimed sports events meanwhile, also in that stadium. And why Berlin as national capital which has overcome war and separation and has changed a lot especially since reunification can't be an example for modernity, progress and multiculturalism, is really beyond me.

Again, I would wholeheartedly support also a Hamburg bid and am really not a "Berlin maniac". But supporting one city shouldn't mean that one should put down the other. And that's what you still do, in my opinion. Negative campaigning is a pretty bad way of advertising one's own favourite city.

First of all, my reluctance in considering Berlin as a candidate for a future Summer Games is not driven by an irrational anti-Berlin stance. I've been to the city many a time and thoroughly enjoyed my stays there, especially given its cultural and arts scene, as well as its diverse history and nature.

I just mean to avoid a capital-centric focus in a country that rightly projects itself as a federal republic that is able to welcome our international guests in any city chosen to host the Games. That's one thing I like about the United States and Australia: they automatically consider different cities on being on an even keel for hosting the Olympic Games. In my view, in the Federal Republic we have three great cities perfectly capable of hosting the Games as well: Realistically that includes Berlin, Hamburg and Munich. I think it goes without saying that Germany cannot risk its prospects by presenting another "sympathy candidate" like Leipzig to the IOC. Since Munich's focus is on 2022, it's a straight race between Berlin and Hamburg. And yes, I'm a passionate supporter of Hamburg - but that doesn't make my reluctance towards Berlin as a candidate today less legitimate.

It's been a long time since Summer Games have taken place in Germany. Consequently, I want the best candidate to win those Games. And given the whole "continental rotation" concept that the IOC has adopted, it's more important than ever to ensure everything has been done to ensure that "our" city wins. In this context, discussing the drawbacks of a Berlin bid isn't the equivalent of "flinging mud" - it's an examination and evaluation of factors that could stop a Berlin bid in its tracks and leave Germany to wait even longer for the Summer Games. I've provided facts for each of my assertions, because I resent nothing more than people who are unable to support their claims. At the end of the day, I can only go by the data and bid history I have in front of me right now - as well as my knowledge of Berlin, Hamburg and German politics. And unlike the (hypothetical) title of this thread suggests, I think Germany has a good chance of hosting the Summer Games by 2028 (or if Paris actually fails to bid: 2024). So, all my comments (and admittedly, I didn't make this expressly clear) relate to what my concerns would be if Berlin was going to declare its willingness to bid for 2024 sometime in 2015.

If we're fortunate, then Berlin may well end up radically cutting its debt, bringing unemployment in line with the national average and reduce the indebtedness of its citizens. If they manage to do so, then it's all good. The problem is that these are structural problems that are not likely to be solved over a period of 5 or 10 years. And just like I cannot make predictions for the next 15 to 20 years, neither can you.

The heart of the matter is simple: I'm presenting a rational, data-based case against Berlin's current suitability as a candidate. Anyone can look up the sources I've presented and form their own point of view. It's a perfectly legitimate case. Since I don't wish to engage in an unnecessarily abrasive argument, I think we should just leave it at that and agree to disagree for the time being.

If Berlin gets selected and runs a successful campaign to win over the IOC, I shall quite simply eat my words. I'm very passionate about Germany's chances of hosting the Summer and Winter Games soon - and I'm not beyond having my mind changed.

[Crusader]

I think if you consider Olympic Bids from Germany - could Hamburg be London to Berlin's Paris?

Hamburg has apparently ring fenced area in central Hamburg for the Olympic site, and this visionary concept might appeal to the IOC members voting.

Even if Paris goes for and wins 2024 - I think the following 3 rotations are up in the air, and could go Africa-NorthAmerica-Europe-Asia. So if Munich2022 occured, 2036 could still be back in Germany.

[plusbrilliantsexploits]

I think if you consider Olympic Bids from Germany - could Hamburg be London to Berlin's Paris?

Hamburg has apparently ring fenced area in central Hamburg for the Olympic site, and this visionary concept might appeal to the IOC members voting.

Yes, it could well be. They have already hosted a number of regular sports events:

• Vattenfall Classics (cycling/UCI ProTour)
  
• Hamburg Grand Prix (equestrian)
  
• International German Open (tennis/ATP) and German Open (tennis/WTA)
  
• Hamburg Masters (field hockey)
  
• Hamburg Triathlon
  
• Hamburg Marathon
  

Further, Hamburg has also hosted the following sporting events in the past

• Football World Cups 2006 and 1974
  
• Triathlon World Championship 2007
  
• Handball World Championship 2007
  
• Europa League Final 2010 (football)
  

But to be fair (and in this regard I fully agree with Olympian2004), Hamburg needs to pull in more international events - particularly in athletics and swimming. Those are areas in which Berlin arguably has a good deal of experience. But mind you, the London bid was born out of Sebastian Coe's disappointment about the 2005 IAAF Championships having to be awarded by London (after winning the bid), as the government reneged on funding for the Pickett's Lock athletics stadium. So yeah, anything is possible...

[plusbrilliantsexploits]

Re: the time of a bid...well, even if Munich gets 2022, we could still see the Summer Games make an appearance in Germany before the 2020s are out. Mind you, a continental rotation is not an absolute and irreversible imperative for the IOC. It's which city offers a convincing narrative, precision in organization and markets. If either Berlin or Hamburg offer this trinity of values to the Committee and others in the running don't - then who knows, we might see two editions of the Olympic Games in Germany before the decade is out. But then, I couldn't have credibly told you in 2003 that Paris would lose to London...we shall just have to see.

[Crusader]

Yes, it could well be. They have already hosted a number of regular sports events:

• Vattenfall Classics (cycling/UCI ProTour)
  
• Hamburg Grand Prix (equestrian)
  
• International German Open (tennis/ATP) and German Open (tennis/WTA)
  
• Hamburg Masters (field hockey)
  
• Hamburg Triathlon
  
• Hamburg Marathon
  

Further, Hamburg has also hosted the following sporting events in the past

• Football World Cups 2006 and 1974
  
• Triathlon World Championship 2007
  
• Handball World Championship 2007
  
• Europa League Final 2010 (football)
  

But to be fair (and in this regard I fully agree with Olympian2004), Hamburg needs to pull in more international events - particularly in athletics and swimming. Those are areas in which Berlin arguably has a good deal of experience. But mind you, the London bid was born out of Sebastian Coe's disappointment about the 2005 IAAF Championships having to be awarded by London (after winning the bid), as the government reneged on funding for the Pickett's Lock athletics stadium. So yeah, anything is possible...

Hamburg needs an athletic track to host any large scale Athletics events .... its a case of chicken and egg ... and the city will have to built some sort of venue to do this

[Sir Rols]

Okay, I'm a pretty strong supporter of a German hosting – SOGs or WOGs. It's one of my last sentimental wishes for the games (along with a Swedish WOGs). And I've travelled around Germany fairly widely, and spent extended periods there for both work and pleasure, so I feel I do know it reasonably well – though I won't claim to be up to date with all the day-to-day or month-to-month minutae of federal and regional politics within Germany.

I do feel and agree that Germany is one of those fortunate countries that have the luxury of more than one potential host for a summer games (not sure about winter, though). We've already seen two of its big three, Berlin and Munich, host the SOGs, and I actually could see Hamburg being a viable host contender. And I loved their 2012 plan – my favourite amongst the German domestic bidders for that race! If anything, I'd probably lean towards favouring Hamburg in the future as well – for one I like to see variety of hosts and would always instinctively tend to back a newcomer against a repeat host, plus, well, not only is this board's prominent Hamburger Citius Altius Fortius undoubtedly GamesBids' most popular member, but I count him as a good personal friend and I'd be thrilled to see him be able to experience the Games in his home town.

But while I think Hamburg is up to it, and electable, I'd also recognise that this isn't a universal, or even very widespread, view amongst Olympic bid watchers like us here on the board. I know there would be a very large group willing to debate here that Hamburg doesn't have the world profile or cachet the IOC would love, or that it's foolish to bid if a country doesn't put up their best short – and in many eyes Berlin would be their best shot. I'd love to see such arguments proved wrong, but that would only happen if it did bid- and win. And that's a tough task for any city – just ask Paris, or New York, or Tokyo.

As regards possible opposition – well, as I acknowledged, I don't follow the detailed ins-and-outs of German political debate. But I'm aware the country, in my mind to its great credit, has a vibrant questioning and protesting political culture, which has come to the fore in the past in the bids by Berlin for 2000 and the Munich for 2018. But I think that's true of any major democracy these days. In countries like Germany – or Australia, or Canada or the USA – one of the first tasks of any potential bid is that it would first need to work hard to convince its citizens that bidding is worthwhile and not just an unecessary and expensive vanity exercise due to fail. I suspect, that as a country with a strong sports culture and support, that this would be eminently achievable, but still nevertheless would need to be worked at.

[FYI]

Okay, so I wasn't going to get into this German city debate. But I'm just curious now. When prospective German hosts R talked about here on these boards, you of course hear about Berlin N Munich, & even Hamburg. But Y is Frankfurt hardly ever mentioned? It's only Germany's financial capital & transportation hub. Is the 3rd largest metropolitan area in Germany, N Is the largest financial center in continental Europe & has the largest (& impressive) skyline in Europe. The city also boasts an expansive metro system & has a huge airport with non-stop service to many global destinations. They also made an attempt for 2012, along with Hamburg & Dusseldorf.

With seemingly the talk in large countries, like the U.S. & Germany, where the Alpha cities in these respective countries may not be longer interested, but their Beta cities might be, I'm actually getting intrigued by a hypothetical Beta world-city showdown, kinda like the 1996 one. Like a hypothetical field of Frankfurt or Hamburg, Philadelphia or Dallas, Osaka or Nagoya, or Melbourne or Brisbane all against one another. I'd be interested to C this change of interest in cities, if the Paris', New York's, & if Tokyo loses 2020, R just over the Olympic fever by trying to chase down that all-so coveted Olympic flame.

[Citius Altius Fortius]

It seems that you are astonished that the majority of the German GBmembers would prefer a bid from Hamburg than a bid from Frankfurt. Maybe you are not aware of the significance of Hamburg. It is the sixth largest city in the European Union (right after London, Berlin, Madrid, Rome and Paris)

London - 7,8 million

Berlin - 3,5 million

Madrid - 3,2 million

Rome - 2,7 million

Paris - 2, 2 milion

Hamburg - 1,8 million

I lived in Frankfurt for three years and I have to admit that it has not the flair of a city to me - it is more like a village with skyscrapers in one part of it and a huge airport on its border in the south west.

[Daze]

I don´t think that a city like Frankfurt has a chance to host the Games.

It is not much bigger than our 2012 city Leipzig, which was way too small for the IOC.

I think Berlin, Hamburg and Munich are the only german cities which are capable to host any Olympics.

Maybe you can add Cologne to this but not Frankfurt, Düsseldorf or even Stuttgart.

[Citius Altius Fortius]

I would bend over backwards without a second of hesitation to do everything that the Games become an unique, brillaint and successful Games for the participating athletes/visitors from all over the world if the IOC awarded Summer Olympics to Hamburg...

My experience of the wonderful London Olympics made me aware that a German bid will be successful only when it offers something special to the IOC - e.g. the 'city-Olympics' like the 2012 bid from Hamburg, but there are several things, which I would change after my London experience - or Games, which are able to use the historic sites of 1936, but transfer into the democratic Germany of today - like an Olympic Park around the 1936 stadium - or a new Park on the former border between former East and West Berlin - or a Winter bid which uses the Summer venues of 1972

But that all is not enough - it must be unique and offer a stage for the world

[plusbrilliantsexploits]

Okay, so I wasn't going to get into this German city debate. But I'm just curious now. When prospective German hosts R talked about here on these boards, you of course hear about Berlin N Munich, & even Hamburg. But Y is Frankfurt hardly ever mentioned? It's only Germany's financial capital & transportation hub. Is the 3rd largest metropolitan area in Germany, N Is the largest financial center in continental Europe & has the largest (& impressive) skyline in Europe. The city also boasts an expansive metro system & has a huge airport with non-stop service to many global destinations. They also made an attempt for 2012, along with Hamburg & Dusseldorf.

Well, these are rather interesting and valid points you make in regard to Frankfurt. Indeed, the city has a rather healthy economy and its debt is far lower than that of Berlin or even Hamburg (last year, the city's total debt was just around €983 million). The city boasts a fairly good business climate and the fact that it's Germany's financial centre with excellent transport connections by air, road and rail definitely helps a great deal. In international surveys regarding quality of life, Frankfurt (within Germany, that is) is usually only beaten by Hamburg (for instance, the 2011 The Economist survey). It even scored quite nicely in the evaluation of Germany's potential candidates by the German NOC - only beaten by Hamburg (and if it had been in the race, presumably by Berlin as well). So, there are positive bits.

The problems are the following:

• Frankfurt is too small. The city proper only has 679,000 citizens within its limits (that makes it only the fifth-largest city in Germany, after Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Cologne) - Frankfurt would probably have to rely on a wide range of clusters in its suburbs and metropolitan area to accommodate all the events that the Olympic programme requires. Plus, as CAF alluded to, it would have a provincial feel to it.
  

• It has an image problem. If I'm worried about civic rejection and lack of sufficient public acceptance in Berlin, then I'd have even more serious concerns about Frankfurt. Its status as Germany's financial centre and headquarters of the European Central Bank, alongside it being the headquarters of many a corporation, would not exactly endear it to a lot of people. Plus, cities like Hamburg, Berlin and Munich are perceived to have greater passion about sport.
  

• Besides a few matches of the 1974 and 2006 World Cups, the city doesn't exactly have a great sporting tradition. Berlin, Hamburg and Munich have much stronger claims in this department. Before at least being considered as a serious candidate, they really need to get working on that area.
  

[plusbrilliantsexploits]

Okay, I'm a pretty strong supporter of a German hosting – SOGs or WOGs. It's one of my last sentimental wishes for the games (along with a Swedish WOGs). And I've travelled around Germany fairly widely, and spent extended periods there for both work and pleasure, so I feel I do know it reasonably well – though I won't claim to be up to date with all the day-to-day or month-to-month minutae of federal and regional politics within Germany.

I do feel and agree that Germany is one of those fortunate countries that have the luxury of more than one potential host for a summer games (not sure about winter, though). We've already seen two of its big three, Berlin and Munich, host the SOGs, and I actually could see Hamburg being a viable host contender. And I loved their 2012 plan – my favourite amongst the German domestic bidders for that race! If anything, I'd probably lean towards favouring Hamburg in the future as well – for one I like to see variety of hosts and would always instinctively tend to back a newcomer against a repeat host, plus, well, not only is this board's prominent Hamburger Citius Altius Fortius undoubtedly GamesBids' most popular member, but I count him as a good personal friend and I'd be thrilled to see him be able to experience the Games in his home town.

But while I think Hamburg is up to it, and electable, I'd also recognise that this isn't a universal, or even very widespread, view amongst Olympic bid watchers like us here on the board. I know there would be a very large group willing to debate here that Hamburg doesn't have the world profile or cachet the IOC would love, or that it's foolish to bid if a country doesn't put up their best short – and in many eyes Berlin would be their best shot. I'd love to see such arguments proved wrong, but that would only happen if it did bid- and win. And that's a tough task for any city – just ask Paris, or New York, or Tokyo.

As regards possible opposition – well, as I acknowledged, I don't follow the detailed ins-and-outs of German political debate. But I'm aware the country, in my mind to its great credit, has a vibrant questioning and protesting political culture, which has come to the fore in the past in the bids by Berlin for 2000 and the Munich for 2018. But I think that's true of any major democracy these days. In countries like Germany – or Australia, or Canada or the USA – one of the first tasks of any potential bid is that it would first need to work hard to convince its citizens that bidding is worthwhile and not just an unecessary and expensive vanity exercise due to fail. I suspect, that as a country with a strong sports culture and support, that this would be eminently achievable, but still nevertheless would need to be worked at.

I fully agree with your post on every point, Sir Rols. Absolutely, a healthy questioning of government and corporate endeavours is part of a lively and strong democracy. The problem in Germany, as I perceive it, is 1) that we Germans sometimes stand in our own way by focusing on the parochial and not paying attention to the value of staging an Olympic Games (beyond the financial aspect; we all know that the Games, if executed well, are not a balance-sheet winner, to put it diplomatically) and 2) that the opposition of a motley few crowds out the potential support of a decisive majority and gets way too much play in the media. That's what usually has wrecked German bids in the past. That, and the occasional oddball candidate (Berchtesgarden 1992, Leipzig 2012).

However, I'm thrilled about vivid exchange of ideas that has developed within this thread - and the consensus that Germany has at least three interesting alternatives for staging a summer Games one day. That only bodes well for the future.

[Sir Rols]

I would bend over backwards without a second of hesitation to do everything that the Games become an unique, brillaint and successful Games for the participating athletes/visitors from all over the world if the IOC awarded Summer Olympics to Hamburg...

My experience of the wonderful London Olympics made me aware that a German bid will be successful only when it offers something special to the IOC - e.g. the 'city-Olympics' like the 2012 bid from Hamburg, but there are several things, which I would change after my London experience - or Games, which are able to use the historic sites of 1936, but transfer into the democratic Germany of today - like an Olympic Park around the 1936 stadium - or a new Park on the former border between former East and West Berlin - or a Winter bid which uses the Summer venues of 1972

But that all is not enough - it must be unique and offer a stage for the world

All bidders have to face that. It's exactly what gets pondered in the USA bid threads as well. The narrative's really important for every bidder. London did masterfully with its Youth message. I think that's an underrated part of their 2012 campaign. But I'm confident that givien the right timing and support, Germany does has strengths to play, including those you already mention. It's good that Germany now has a recent bid under it's belt with Munich. Experience helps you improve every time.

[Daze]

All bidders have to face that. It's exactly what gets pondered in the USA bid threads as well. The narrative's really important for every bidder. London did masterfully with its Youth message. I think that's an underrated part of their 2012 campaign. But I'm confident that givien the right timing and support, Germany does has strengths to play, including those you already mention. It's good that Germany now has a recent bid under it's belt with Munich. Experience helps you improve every time.

But that´s a problem here. The NOC/DOSB/politics/public doesn´t have the patience to go through more than one bid.

And that´s not working anymore. You may have to go through two or more bids like Athens, Beijing, Rio, Istanbul or Tokyo.

None of this cities won their olympics with their first bid.

[plusbrilliantsexploits]

But that´s a problem here. The NOC/DOSB/politics/public doesn´t have the patience to go through more than one bid.

And that´s not working anymore. You may have to go through two or more bids like Athens, Beijing, Rio, Istanbul or Tokyo.

None of this cities won their olympics with their first bid.

Well, repeat bidding is the name of the game these days - Rio had to go through it, the winner of the 2020 bid will have gone through it, ditto for Athens and Beijing. Due to the multitude of candidates, it's unavoidable that some worthy candidates will fall by the wayside - for instance, the Candidate Cities for the 2012 Summer Olympics.

So, ultimately, the German NOC, political leadership, business and the public will quite simply have to get used to it. Winning on the first attempt is possible, but recent trends within the IOC support the theory that it would be prudent to be ready for Round 2, as it were...

[Crusader]

But while I think Hamburg is up to it, and electable, I'd also recognise that this isn't a universal, or even very widespread, view amongst Olympic bid watchers like us here on the board. I know there would be a very large group willing to debate here that Hamburg doesn't have the world profile or cachet the IOC would love, or that it's foolish to bid if a country doesn't put up their best short – and in many eyes Berlin would be their best shot. I'd love to see such arguments proved wrong, but that would only happen if it did bid- and win. And that's a tough task for any city – just ask Paris, or New York, or Tokyo.

I agree with you to a certain extent, but I think Germany is also Australian and American in this regard rather than British or French where it would be extremely foolish to bid without London or Paris.

Germany's big 3 cities aren't so massively different in size, and Hamburg has always had a strong sporting tradition. I also think that if you look at the history and culture of the city, it would be comparatively easy to bring stronger international recognition very quickly.

[FYI]

The problems are the following:

• Frankfurt is too small. The city proper only has 679,000 citizens within its limits (that makes it only the fifth-largest city in Germany, after Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Cologne) - Frankfurt would probably have to rely on a wide range of clusters in its suburbs and metropolitan area to accommodate all the events that the Olympic programme requires. Plus, as CAF alluded to, it would have a provincial feel to it.
  

• It has an image problem. If I'm worried about civic rejection and lack of sufficient public acceptance in Berlin, then I'd have even more serious concerns about Frankfurt. Its status as Germany's financial centre and headquarters of the European Central Bank, alongside it being the headquarters of many a corporation, would not exactly endear it to a lot of people. Plus, cities like Hamburg, Berlin and Munich are perceived to have greater passion about sport.
  

• Besides a few matches of the 1974 and 2006 World Cups, the city doesn't exactly have a great sporting tradition. Berlin, Hamburg and Munich have much stronger claims in this department. Before at least being considered as a serious candidate, they really need to get working on that area.
  

While I appreciate your German insight, IDK if I can take it quite objectively, though, since you & CAF R so passionate about a Hamburg bid, judging from this thread.

While yes, Frankfurt city proper is only 679,000, but going by this logic even Hamburg is "too small" for a 21st century Olympic Games at only 1.8 million. Also for example just going by this, the City of San Francisco, which many Americans & also foreigners tout would make a good choice for the next U.S. bid, has a city proper population of only 805,000. While Philadelphia, which many cite wouldn't be a good U.S. choice, has a city propor population of 1.6 million.

The Olympic Games are a regional effort TBW, which in turn requires a region to work together to host an Olympic Games at all levels. I can't remember when an Olympic Games was all held within the confines of a host city's 'city limits'. There's always gonna be some events that are going to be stretched out. Even Jacque Rogge himself said a couple of years ago, that any city thinking about an Olympic Games must have a "metro" population of at least 2.5 million. Frankfurt falls very comfortably in this category at 5.6 million, & not at all like Leipzig's, which someeone else alluded to on here, at 3.5 million,

While, I'm not trying to downplay Hamburg's credentials here, which is not my intent, I just think that Frankfurt is being short-changed here, IMHO, I think it does belong alongside Berlin, Munich N Hamburg, as Olympic hopefuls. You claim Frankfurt has a low image, but yet myself as an American, Frankfurt has always been on my radar as far as German cities are concerned, precisely cuz it's the business & financial capital. It may not be the "sportiest" of cities bcuz of this, (& again comparing to San Francisco, respectively speaking, there R other more sport-driven U.S. cities), what a better way to promote more sport into a city than by having an Olympic Games. Akin to London's "inspire a generation", which supposedly was a big key in their success, a similar approach could be worked in with a Frankfurt case. A city nor country doesn't need to have a strong sporting tradition to land an Olympic Games. Just look at Seoul, Sarajevo & PyenogChang, but it could be a catalyst for the beginnings to become one.

[plusbrilliantsexploits]

While I appreciate your German insight, IDK if I can take it quite objectively, though, since you & CAF R so passionate about a Hamburg bid, judging from this thread.

While yes, Frankfurt city proper is only 679,000, but going by this logic even Hamburg is "too small" for a 21st century Olympic Games at only 1.8 million. Also for example just going by this, the City of San Francisco, which many Americans & also foreigners tout would make a good choice for the next U.S. bid, has a city proper population of only 805,000. While Philadelphia, which many cite wouldn't be a good U.S. choice, has a city propor population of 1.6 million.

The Olympic Games are a regional effort TBW, which in turn requires a region to work together to host an Olympic Games at all levels. I can't remember when an Olympic Games was all held within the confines of a host city's 'city limits'. There's always gonna be some events that are going to be stretched out. Even Jacque Rogge himself said a couple of years ago, that any city thinking about an Olympic Games must have a "metro" population of at least 2.5 million. Frankfurt falls very comfortably in this category at 5.6 million, & not at all like Leipzig's, which someeone else alluded to on here, at 3.5 million,

While, I'm not trying to downplay Hamburg's credentials here, which is not my intent, I just think that Frankfurt is being short-changed here, IMHO, I think it does belong alongside Berlin, Munich N Hamburg, as Olympic hopefuls. You claim Frankfurt has a low image, but yet myself as an American, Frankfurt has always been on my radar as far as German cities are concerned, precisely cuz it's the business & financial capital. It may not be the "sportiest" of cities bcuz of this, (& again comparing to San Francisco, respectively speaking, there R other more sport-driven U.S. cities), what a better way to promote more sport into a city than by having an Olympic Games. Akin to London's "inspire a generation", which supposedly was a big key in their success, a similar approach could be worked in with a Frankfurt case. A city nor country doesn't need to have a strong sporting tradition to land an Olympic Games. Just look at Seoul, Sarajevo & PyenogChang, but it could be a catalyst for the beginnings to become one.

You make a number of interesting and thought-provoking points, for which I thank you. It's always good to get a different angle on a topic, and I can say that the way you put the argument across is rather cogent. On a related note, despite my passionate support of Hamburg as a prospective host of the summer edition of the Olympic Games, I quite appreciate the advantages and drawbacks of other host cities as well. You will have noted that I readily conceded that Berlin has an excellent tradition in hosting athletics events and certainly possesses an irresistible level of name recognition. So, I don't have my objectivity affected by my personal favourites. My paramount objective is to support the best candidate for Germany to secure the Summer Olympics by the mid-2030s.

With regard to the examples you cite: San Francisco easily gets a pass for its sub-million population because of a number of factors, including 1) its iconic skyline and overall natural beauty - it's known the world over as the gateway to the Pacific; hence, its approval by international visitors; in fact, I'd love to visit San Francisco one day as well; its landmarks are known the world over - whether it's the Golden Gate Bridge, Fisherman's Wharf or even Alcatraz... 2) it has a place in the cultural and social imagination of people - whether its beat literature, its history during the 1960s and its creative scene...3) and yes, there's the sporting scene: even if I don't mention the 49ers (not an Olympic sport, I know), you've got considerable cycling, triathlon, marathon, kite-surfing, windsurfing and yachting (one instance: SF will be hosting the 2013 America's Cup). But above all, its sporting scene projects an image of youthfulness, energy and dynamicism.

Frankfurt, with respect, doesn't have that kind of iconic status - yes, it's a financial and transportation hub...no doubt about it. But there's more to winning a bid in a multipolar world. Also, an excessive organization in clusters is not kindly looked upon by the IOC, either. There were mutterings about the Turin bid spread way too thinly across the province of Turin. Usually, during the Summer Games, there are only certain types of competition that take place outside the city limits, namely the football and individual ones (usually sailing and occasionally equestrian)...

That said, Frankfurt does have reputed fair grounds - and I suppose the Organizing Committee could build on that for events like fencing, gymnastics, wrestling and the like. So, in terms of logistics, I think Frankfurt would have an easier time to survive the Applicant City phase than Leipzig. The problem I see is its lack of iconic or at least potentially iconic status. Berlin is the country's capital and recognized metropolis, Hamburg is the gateway to Northern Europe, with a beautiful seafront, Munich is the self-confident city that has thrived on its ambition (including great green spaces within the city and countryside around it).

Seoul, Pyeongchang and Sarajevo are specific cases: Seoul stood for Korea's democratization and its recognition by the world as a rising economic power. Pyeongchang is the first Winter Games in Korea and was bolstered by stratospheric support levels, as well as unanimous backing by the government and the business community. Sarajevo was the first Winter Games in a nominally socialist country. So yeah, there were specific factors that caused the victory of these bids.

Frankfurt does have great transport connections and thrives on a comparably above-average economy (and consistently strong tax revenues). But can Frankfurt make the case that their Games would have (sport at) heart? I can't predict that - right now, the case still remains to be made in my eyes. Don't get me wrong - I would enjoy Germany offering a very wide range of strong candidates. But, as I said, the jury's still out on Frankfurt.

[Citius Altius Fortius]

You claim Frankfurt has a low image, but yet myself as an American, Frankfurt has always been on my radar as far as German cities are concerned, precisely cuz it's the business & financial capital.

... well that might be a result that Germany is often mixed up by Americans with what they normally know about Germany.

The image of Germany in the USA has often its origin in the US-occupation zone after WWII - the US-occupation zone contained: Bavaria, the northern part of Baden-Württemberg, Hesse and Bremen/Bremerhavn. Berlin was devided in four sectors, but under Allied rule until 1990.

I am quite sure when I ask you about several German habits/dishes/clothes etc. etc. you will tell me that several things are German, but these things are traditional in Bavaria or in other parts of the US-occupation zone only...

It is only natural that the US-soldiers, who returned to the USA, told their relatives about what they saw - but these things are only traditional in the area of Germany, which belonged to the US-occupation zone. Of course the US-media prefer to inform the US-citizens about what they expect from Germany, but these things are only typical again for the US-occuption zone - the same is valid for the "Germany" part in EPCOT in Florida...

Frankfurt was the place, where the US-military government was - since it is in Hesse, which belonged to the US-zone - and there was an airfield, which was used by the US-Air Force right after the US-Army freed the area from the Nazis (it took 5 days to prepare the runway, that it could be used again) - today's airport was created out of this US Air-Base - the special usage rights of the US-Air Force ended in 2005.

When the three occupation zone of the Western Allies formed the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) Frankfurt had the luck that it was in the geographical centre of West Germany and that it was the HQ of the US-troops - therefore it became the financial and transportation hub of the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany).

Please don't get me wrong - I do love Bavarian habits and it is part of Germany's culture. I don't have a problem with the stereotypes of Germany in the USA, but Americans should be aware that these stereotypes belong to Bavaria or South/Southeast Germany only...

[Citius Altius Fortius]

Frankfurt, with respect, doesn't have that kind of iconic status

I totally agree - of course there are some very, very nice sites in Frankfurt (like the Römerberg, Alte Oper, some of the skyscrapers, the cathedral and Sachsenhausen), but it has not the urban flair of a world metropole - I think Berlin and Hamburg (Summer Olympics) and München (Winter Olympics) can offer the IOC something special...

[Citius Altius Fortius]

The "main idea" of the Hamburg bid of 2012 was to host "City Olympics"

[FYI]

With regard to the examples you cite: San Francisco easily gets a pass for its sub-million population because of a number of factors, including 1) its iconic skyline and overall natural beauty - it's known the world over as the gateway to the Pacific; hence, its approval by international visitors; in fact, I'd love to visit San Francisco one day as well; its landmarks are known the world over - whether it's the Golden Gate Bridge, Fisherman's Wharf or even Alcatraz... 2) it has a place in the cultural and social imagination of people - whether its beat literature, its history during the 1960s and its creative scene...3) and yes, there's the sporting scene: even if I don't mention the 49ers (not an Olympic sport, I know), you've got considerable cycling, triathlon, marathon, kite-surfing, windsurfing and yachting (one instance: SF will be hosting the 2013 America's Cup). But above all, its sporting scene projects an image of youthfulness, energy and dynamicism.

Frankfurt, with respect, doesn't have that kind of iconic status - yes, it's a financial and transportation hub...no doubt about it. But there's more to winning a bid in a multipolar world. Also, an excessive organization in clusters is not kindly looked upon by the IOC, either. There were mutterings about the Turin bid spread way too thinly across the province of Turin. Usually, during the Summer Games, there are only certain types of competition that take place outside the city limits, namely the football and individual ones (usually sailing and occasionally equestrian)...

That said, Frankfurt does have reputed fair grounds - and I suppose the Organizing Committee could build on that for events like fencing, gymnastics, wrestling and the like. So, in terms of logistics, I think Frankfurt would have an easier time to survive the Applicant City phase than Leipzig. The problem I see is its lack of iconic or at least potentially iconic status. Berlin is the country's capital and recognized metropolis, Hamburg is the gateway to Northern Europe, with a beautiful seafront, Munich is the self-confident city that has thrived on its ambition (including great green spaces within the city and countryside around it).

Seoul, Pyeongchang and Sarajevo are specific cases: Seoul stood for Korea's democratization and its recognition by the world as a rising economic power. Pyeongchang is the first Winter Games in Korea and was bolstered by stratospheric support levels, as well as unanimous backing by the government and the business community. Sarajevo was the first Winter Games in a nominally socialist country. So yeah, there were specific factors that caused the victory of these bids.

Yes, I already know all of the positive attributes of Y San Francisco gets looked at so favorably by many when it comes to it being a potential Olympic candidate. But you cited in one of your previous posts that Frankfurt's small city proper populance is what would make it a challenge for them that "they would probably need to rely on a wide range of 'clusters' in it's suburbs & metropolitan area to accommodate all the events that the Olympic program requires".

So I used San Francisco as a comparison, bcuz they too (regardless of their natural beauty N iconic status), would also have to branch out with any Olympic plan that they would come up with across the Bay metropolitan area. San Francisco sits at the very tip of a peninsula N has nowhere to go but across bridges to Oakland or down an isthmus towards San Jose. If you were to look at their proposed 2016 bid plan, you'd C that there were plenty of events that were planned outside San Francisco. And for their 2012 failed bid, everything was even more spreadout where they proposed the main Olympic stadium all the way down in Palo Alto & the USOC, strangely enough, were considering them alongside NYC, in the final U.S. candidate evaulations, with such a spreadout venue plan.

N obviously, the IOC doesn't seem to actually mind "an excessive organization in clusters". It worked for Rio 2016 & their spread-out, 4-cluster concept. And while I also know the main reasons why Seoul, Sarajevo & PyeongChang were actually chosen, the real point behind that, is that they had compelling arguments as to Y they should be chosen, even though they aren't exactly sport-minded cities. While I'm not saying that Frankfurt would be some sort of a sure thing in that particular category, I would at they very least, be interested to see what kind of hypothetical concept & pitch that they could come up with if they were interested. N sorry to say, but if iconic status is one of the main focal points of your concern, then seriously, Berlin (with it's recognized global image & the Brandenburg Gate, etc) is the only German option. Just like many others here cite that NYC should be the only & next American candidate due to "high global perception".

[Citius Altius Fortius]

I posted the complete Hamburg bid broschure in the "Past Bids" forum

[plusbrilliantsexploits]

N obviously, the IOC doesn't seem to actually mind "an excessive organization in clusters". It worked for Rio 2016 & their spread-out, 4-cluster concept. And while I also know the main reasons why Seoul, Sarajevo & PyeongChang were actually chosen, the real point behind that, is that they had compelling arguments as to Y they should be chosen, even though they aren't exactly sport-minded cities. While I'm not saying that Frankfurt would be some sort of a sure thing in that particular category, I would at they very least, be interested to see what kind of hypothetical concept & pitch that they could come up with if they were interested. N sorry to say, but if iconic status is one of the main focal points of your concern, then seriously, Berlin (with it's recognized global image & the Brandenburg Gate, etc) is the only German option. Just like many others here cite that NYC should be the only & next American candidate due to "high global perception".

Well, by the "iconic status" angle, I was referring to the key reasons why Frankfurt's population size of 680,000 or so should be overlooked. I didn't mean it an exclusionary criterion per se - rather such a status can offset a nominally low population size (i.e. anything below a million). Hamburg, Berlin, Munich and Cologne have much lesser problems in that department, since they are Germany's only 1m+ cities in Germany. Plus, as CAF already said, these cities could offer something different to the International Olympic Committee. Frankfurt has yet to prove that it could provide something special to the Olympic Movement (in terms of commercial interests, legacy issues or the overall thrust of the bid). Don't get me wrong - I don't doubt Frankfurt's technical ability to carry out the Summer Olympics - Frankfurt did apply to the German NOC and got high technical marks (placing second behind Hamburg). If selected as a German candidate, Frankfurt would definitely be able to pass the Applicant City stage, just on technical excellence compared to many also-rans. I think that Rio's cluster organization didn't matter as much as its powerful message of "What is wrong with this map?".

I think we just disagree on whether Frankfurt would be able to pass muster in the Candidate City stage, especially when compared to cities like Berlin, Hamburg and Munich. Since Germany probably only gets the Summer Games every once in a while (whilst countries like the United States and China have leverage that Germany doesn't, especially commercial interests and sizable markets), I'm interested in sending a very strong candidate into the race. For me, by definition, Berlin, Hamburg and Munich qualify automatically. I agree with you on one point, though: If Frankfurt is somehow able to put together an inspiring message and an excellent public relations campaign, then yes: anything is possible.

As I said: The more strong German candidates for a Summer Games, the better for Germany's eventual chances. You brought an interesting perspective to the table, and it's certainly worth seriously considering. Thank you.

P.S. I will definitely check out the San Francisco bid later...