Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
runningrings

(serious) predictions for 2020/22/24/26

Recommended Posts

You didn't get my point - I doubt that welfare belongs to the major focusses of the IOC...

E.g. why didn't host a "third-world county" Olympic Games in the past, when welfare is really a major issue for the IOC?

Edited by Citius Altius Fortius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You didn't get my point - I doubt that welfare belongs to the major focusses of the IOC...

E.g. why didn't host a "third-world county" Olympic Games in the past, when welfare is really a major issue for the IOC?

I did get your point.

Legacy is important to the IOC. However, just because a country is in current economic difficulties doesn't necessarily preclude them especially if there is significant public support. If a country like Spain can convince themselves that the economic benefits of job creation and improved infrastructure from hosting either the Summer or Winter Games outweigh the cost of doing so, then the government will be adamant in convincing the IOC that they will underwrite the costs incurred. Better to take taxes from those working, than pay benefits to those who are not. Often it is improvement in roads, rail, housing etc which are key to economic growth long after the memories of the games have faded. And all will take Athens as a blueprint of how not to do it.

From a bidders perspective it could be described as welfare, but from the IOC viewpoint it will be described as legacy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Examining the patterns of IOC votes over the past few decades

I think the biggest thing you will notice is that there is no pattern. These guys are all over the map. Especially when we are talking about 20-30 years from know, who the heck knows how they will be thinking.

As for Philly? The town the booed Santa Clause isn't getting the Olympics. Period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did get your point.

Legacy is important to the IOC. However, just because a country is in current economic difficulties doesn't necessarily preclude them especially if there is significant public support. If a country like Spain can convince themselves that the economic benefits of job creation and improved infrastructure from hosting either the Summer or Winter Games outweigh the cost of doing so, then the government will be adamant in convincing the IOC that they will underwrite the costs incurred. Better to take taxes from those working, than pay benefits to those who are not. Often it is improvement in roads, rail, housing etc which are key to economic growth long after the memories of the games have faded. And all will take Athens as a blueprint of how not to do it.

From a bidders perspective it could be described as welfare, but from the IOC viewpoint it will be described as legacy.

You didn't get my point totally - if welfare/legacy would be a main focus of the IOC it would have given/would give it to a third world country.

The main focus of the IOC is that the host is capable to give the athletes good conditions to perform, to earn money, that the spectators have fun, that the Games are secure and that the olympic family a pleasant time in the host city. It is great if the Games have a legacy, but for the 16 days it is not mandatory...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the biggest thing you will notice is that there is no pattern. These guys are all over the map. Especially when we are talking about 20-30 years from know, who the heck knows how they will be thinking.

100% agree with this. A lot of people tend to look at past voting and think they can use that to make predictions several cycles into the future. It simply doesn't work that way. Patterns like the 8's in Asia and the like are mere coincidence and anyone who actually believes that you can predict the 2028 race from it needs to take a longer look at things. Every bid is unique unto itself. Yes, there are elements of past bids that you can apply, but those won't emerge until you know who the bid cities are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You didn't get my point totally - if welfare/legacy would be a main focus of the IOC it would have given/would give it to a third world country.

The main focus of the IOC is that the host is capable to give the athletes good conditions to perform, to earn money, that the spectators have fun, that the Games are secure and that the olympic family a pleasant time in the host city. It is great if the Games have a legacy, but for the 16 days it is not mandatory...

Which is why I think people rule out Toronto at their peril.

Great country. Great city. Economically guaranteed due to strongish Canadian economy and proximity of the USA. Experience of recently running a large multi event games. Major area close to the city centre which could be site for major and impressive inner-city development in the Port Lands, and finally a potential team to move into the stadium after the games - Toronto Argonauts - if as expected the stadium is designed to be down scaled after the games. As the CFL uses a large field there would be less need to make expensive alterations to the stands.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Toronto just needs to get its act together, for once - I think its defeat for 2008 was down to reasons well beyond its control: It was quite simply Beijing's time. No one - not Toronto, nor anyone else was going to stop the Chinese from taking their prize. Canadians hosted a good Winter Games in Vancouver. These have erased any memories of Montréal - and I'm sure Toronto won't be engaging in a Taillibert-style architectonic disaster during its venue preparation.

I'd certainly love travelling to Canada for a new edition of the Summer Games!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the biggest thing you will notice is that there is no pattern. These guys are all over the map. Especially when we are talking about 20-30 years from know, who the heck knows how they will be thinking.

As for Philly? The town the booed Santa Clause isn't getting the Olympics. Period.

santa clause?, what does that have to do with anything related to the games? so what, if they think he isn't really then it's more telling the truth if anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

100% agree with this. A lot of people tend to look at past voting and think they can use that to make predictions several cycles into the future. It simply doesn't work that way. Patterns like the 8's in Asia and the like are mere coincidence and anyone who actually believes that you can predict the 2028 race from it needs to take a longer look at things. Every bid is unique unto itself. Yes, there are elements of past bids that you can apply, but those won't emerge until you know who the bid cities are.

It's true the 8 in Asia is a dull think, but you can't deny there is a patern in IOC voting for the last 40 years for summer games.

They only went to countries who never hosted before & english-speaking cities.

The only exception is Athens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only 'pattern' that there is, is the unofficial 'continental rotation'. Other than that, the IOC is an unpredictable bunch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's true the 8 in Asia is a dull think, but you can't deny there is a patern in IOC voting for the last 40 years for summer games.

They only went to countries who never hosted before & english-speaking cities.

The only exception is Athens.

So the pattern is that it can go to any country that's never had it before and/or an English-speaking country.. but there's an exception to that? That's not really a pattern or a trend. And there's a 2 in 3 chance 2020 won't follow that (unless we consider Japan to be an English-speaking country)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the pattern is that it can go to any country that's never had it before and/or an English-speaking country.. but there's an exception to that? That's not really a pattern or a trend. And there's a 2 in 3 chance 2020 won't follow that (unless we consider Japan to be an English-speaking country)

It's just a fact that the last time a country who already hosted a summer game and wasn't an English-speaking country won a bid was Germany in 1966.

I really believe that if you look at Greece's case with a little honesty, you will recognize that it won for historical reasons for the IOC and not only on bid qualities. Their victory was an exception.

I don't pretend i know everything about IOC and someone who analysed every single votes. I just pointed out what you can't deny Russia, Japan, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands all failed to win a new or a second SOG recently.

Canada, Russia, Korea, Spain, China & Brazil all won for the first time.

Greece, Australia, the USA & UK only managed to win again for the last 46 years. And i already explained why Greece was an exception for the IOC, even if i think you would need to really dumb not to see why it is.

And i'm aware of the 2020 candidates cities, thank you. And i'm not stupid, i just know that someday it will change sooner or later.

China is too big to be ignored, soon the IOC will want to go back to Europe and there isn't going to be a huge choice of newcomers or English-Speaking countries there but still my point is valid until 2013. :D

And for all you & I know it could be valid for many more years as Istanbul can totally win 2020, USA, the Canada & SA can easily win 2024 & 2028!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the pattern is that it can go to any country that's never had it before and/or an English-speaking country.. but there's an exception to that? That's not really a pattern or a trend. And there's a 2 in 3 chance 2020 won't follow that (unless we consider Japan to be an English-speaking country)

well japan technically has some English in them in form of Romaji. also english words could also be translated into kanji while sounding identical to the english word but with japanese pronunciation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really believe that if you look at Greece's case with a little honesty, you will recognize that it won for historical reasons for the IOC and not only on bid qualities. Their victory was an exception.

Technically, you could put Greece in the English-speaking column too because I think the major non-Greek language spoken there is English.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My predictions:

1896 - I. - Athinai, Ellas

1900 - II. - Paris, France

1904 - III. - Saint Louis, United States

1908 - IV. - London, United Kingdom

1912 - V. - Stockholm, Sverige

1916 - VI. - Berlin, Deutschland

1920 - VII. - Antwerpen, België

1924 - I. - Chamonix, France

1924 - VIII. - Paris, France

1928 - II. - Sankt Moritz, Schweiz

1928 - IX. - Amsterdam, Nederland

1932 - III. - Lake Placid, United States

1932 - X. - Los Angeles, United States

1936 - IV. - Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Deutschland

1936 - XI. - Berlin, Deutschland

1940 - - Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Deutschland / Sankt Moritz, Schweiz / Sapporo, Nihon-Koku

1940 - XII. - Helsinki, Suomi / Tokyo, Nihon-Koku

1944 - - Cortina d‘Ampezzo, Italia

1944 - XIII. - London, United Kingdom

1948 - V. - Sankt Moritz, Schweiz

1948 - XIV. - London, United Kingdom

1952 - VI. - Oslo, Norge

1952 - XV. - Helsinki, Suomi

1956 - VII. - Cortina d‘Ampezzo, Italia

1956 - XVI. - Melbourne, Australia + Stockholm, Sverige

1960 - VIII. - Squaw Valley, United States

1960 - XVII. - Roma, Italia

1964 - IX. - Innsbruck, Österreich

1964 - XVIII. - Tokyo, Nihon-Koku

1968 - X. - Grenoble, France

1968 - XIX. - Ciudad de México, México

1972 - XI. - Sapporo, Nihon-Koku

1972 - XX. - München, Deutschland

1976 - XII. - Innsbruck, Österreich

1976 - XXI. - Montreal, Canada

1980 - XIII. - Lake Placid, United States

1980 - XXII. - Moskva, Sojuz Sowjetkich

1984 - XIV. - Sarajevo, Jugoslavija

1984 - XXIII. - Los Angeles, United States

1988 - XV. - Calgary, Canada

1988 - XXIV. - Soul, Taehan Min‘guk

1992 - XVI. - Albertville, France

1992 - XXV. - Barcelona, España

1994 - XVII. - Lillehammer, Norge

1996 - XXVI. - Atlanta, United States

1998 - XVIII. - Nagano, Nihon-Koku

2000 - XXVII. - Sydney, Australia

2002 - XIX. - Salt Lake City, United States

2004 - XXVIII. - Athinai, Ellas

2006 - XX. - Torino, Italia

2008 - XXIX. - Beijing, Zhong-guo

2010 - XXI. - Vancouver, Canada

2012 - XXX. - London, United Kingdom

2014 - XXII. - Sochi, Rossija

2016 - XXXI. - Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

2018 - XXIII. - Pyeongchang, Taehan Min‘guk

2020 - XXXII. - Tokyo, Nihon-Koku

2022 - XXIV. - München, Deutschland

2024 - XXXIII. - Paris, France

2026 - XXV. - Santiago de Chile, Chile

2028 - XXXIV. - San Francisco, United States

2030 - XXVI. - Östersund, Sverige

2032 - XXXV. - Cape Town, South Africa

2034 - XXVII. - Harbin, Zhong-guo

2036 - XXXVI. - Nai Dilli, Bharat

2038 - XXVIII. - Kraków, Polska

2040 - XXXVII. - Istanbul, Türkiye

2042 - XXVIII. - Denver, United States

2044 - XXXVIII. - Brisbane, Australia

2046 - XXIX. - Oslo, Norge

2048 - XXXIX. - Berlin, Deutschland

2050 - XXX. - Almaty, Qasaqstan

2052 - XL. - Toronto, Canada

2054 - XXXI. - Graubünden, Schweiz

2056 - XLI. - Roma, Italia

2058 - XXXII. - Christchurch, New Zealand

Edited by Citius Altius Fortius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've always said we won't see a Denver Olympics in my lifetime. So I've got 30 years left I guess.

2042 - XXVIII. - Anchorage, United States; Denver, United States or Reno, United States

Edited by Citius Altius Fortius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really can't conceive of any possible way that Chile will host 2026.

I agree. I think it'll be much further down the line before a Southern Hemisphere city even gets close to landing a Winter Olympics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah, Chile is a no go for any time in the next few decades, but strange things can happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2026 is way too early to Chile. We are talking about a country which has never medalled at the WOG or even sent athletes in sports besides skiing.

@CAF what is Nai Dilli, Bharat?

New Delhi?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree, I think a southern hemisphere WOGs is little than a pipe dream at the moment, as much as many of us have orgasms over the notion. Considering the lack of any real winter sports tradition or results among the usual southern hemisphere suspects, I can't see any real compelling reason for it other than it would sem like a colourful, exotic notion.

That said, I wouldn't mind seeing one of the possible contenders put a bid in to test the waters and see what the IOC has to say. A Winter YOGs might be a good way to test thew waters too, though that could be a problem if it turns out to clash with the senior SOGs.

Edited by Sir Rols

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering the lack of any real winter sports tradition or results among the usual southern hemisphere suspects, I can't see any real compelling reason for it other than it would sem like a colourful, exotic notion.

Have yous looked at where the IOC has been sending the WOG's lately? Southern Russia and South Korea.... two places with extremely limited winter sporting traditions. Both used their lack of sporting tradition as part of their pitch to land the games... We are going to use the Olympics as a catalyst to transform into winter sporting areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have yous looked at where the IOC has been sending the WOG's lately? Southern Russia and South Korea.... two places with extremely limited winter sporting traditions. Both used their lack of sporting tradition as part of their pitch to land the games... We are going to use the Olympics as a catalyst to transform into winter sporting areas.

I've been discussing (and advocating) a southern hemisphere WOGs for the past eight years on GBids. There's few aspects of the notion that haven't been thrashed out in multiple threads and debates here. We've done venue plans, followed every utterance by the IOC or southern hemiphere NOCs about the nation, the lot. And the cold reality I've had to come to accept is that it's just bloody unlikely, if not near impossible.

Both Russia and South Korea have far more winter sports tradition and results than NZ or Chile. Russia's one of the traditional powers, Korea's got a short track pedigree.

Not to mention both are from the north - so seasons and scheduling would not cause such a ruckus than if broadcasters and the Winter IFs have to change their whole modes and calendars of operation for one season just to accommodate a "feel good" plan to take the WOGs south.

Edited by Sir Rols
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...