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(serious) predictions for 2020/22/24/26

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Agreed. Especially when it to the Chinese. Just like the IOC overlooked many challenges when it came to Beijing.

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2020

I think it is between Istanbul and Tokyo - both cities have disadvantages and advantages.

2022

I can't see an American bid at the moment - therefore I think we will see these Winter Olympics in Europe - potential bidders in alphabetical order: München (Deutschland), Norge, Östersund (Sverige), Schweiz, Zakopane (Polska) and Zaragoza (España)

A South American bid from Santiago de Chile would be great!

2024

This depends a lot on 2020 and which European country might host 2022:

- USA, Tokyo or Africa will be possible if Istanbul won... (potential bidders: San Francisco, Chicago or New York / Cape Town or Durban)

- Europe or Africa will be possible if Tokyo won... (potential bidders: Berlin/Hamburg (Deutschland), Paris (France), Roma (Italia), Moskva (Russia), Madrid (Spain), Istanbul (Türkiye) / Cape Town or Durban (South Africa)

2026

I think there will might be an US bid when the USA fails in 2024 - a Chilean bid would be great too or even a bid from New Zealand (potential bidders: Anchorage, Denver or Reno / Santiago de Chile / Christchurch

And of course there will be bids from Europe too of 2024 wasn't held in Europe

There might be a bid from Harbin

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2022

I can't see an American bid at the moment - therefore I think we will see these Winter Olympics in Europe - potential bidders in alphabetical order: München (Deutschland), Norge, Östersund (Sverige), Schweiz, Zakopane (Polska) and Zaragoza (España)

A South American bid from Santiago de Chile would be great!

Ostersund-Are and Zaragoza-Jaca have already both pulled out.

However Barcelona-La Molina is still moving forward

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Sailing and Equestrian events have been held far away from the main Olympics... On other continents even. Never destroyed the spirit of the games or anything like that. The World Cup has matches all over the place.

The Winter Games would be perfectly fine pulling the Downhill or Sleding events a few hours from the host cities.

Little things put huge restrictions on who can host and skyrocket costs. Change 'em

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Sailing and Equestrian events have been held far away from the main Olympics... On other continents even. Never destroyed the spirit of the games or anything like that. The World Cup has matches all over the place.

The Winter Games would be perfectly fine pulling the Downhill or Sleding events a few hours from the host cities.

Little things put huge restrictions on who can host and skyrocket costs. Change 'em

Exactly, the downhill is two events and can be held about 3 hours away if necessary. The slalom/gs can happen closer.

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Ostersund-Are and Zaragoza-Jaca have already both pulled out.

However Barcelona-La Molina is still moving forward

I wouldn't be astonished when Zaragoza and Östersund will join again after the 2020 decision (Zaragoza after an unsuccessful bid from Madrid only)

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I wouldn't be astonished when Zaragoza and Östersund will join again after the 2020 decision (Zaragoza after an unsuccessful bid from Madrid only)

Ostersund have said they won't bid again because of continued Swedish Government refusal to provide the necessary financial guarantees

A pity as Sweden should get the chance to host the games

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What I think has a better chance of occurring if Tokyo wins 2020

2020 - Tokyo

2022 - Munich or Oslo

2024 - Paris

2026 - Harbin or a U.S. City

2028 - Durban

2030 - A Euro City

2032 - Toronto or a U.S. City (depending on if a U.S. city won 2026)

What I think has a better chance of occurring if Istanbul wins 2020

2020 - Istanbul

2022 - Munich or Oslo

2024 - Durban or a U.S. City

2026 - Harbin or a U.S. City (depending on if a U.S. city won 2024)

2028 - Tokyo

2030 - A Euro City

2032 - A Euro, African or American city depending on who won 2024

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What I think has a better chance of occurring if Tokyo wins 2020

2020 - Tokyo

2022 - Munich or Oslo

2024 - Paris

2026 - Harbin or a U.S. City

2028 - Durban

2030 - A Euro City

2032 - Toronto or a U.S. City (depending on if a U.S. city won 2026)

What I think has a better chance of occurring if Istanbul wins 2020

2020 - Istanbul

2022 - Munich or Oslo

2024 - Durban or a U.S. City

2026 - Harbin or a U.S. City (depending on if a U.S. city won 2024)

2028 - Tokyo

2030 - A Euro City

2032 - A Euro, African or American city depending on who won 2024

My predictions

2020: Istanbul

2022: Munich

2024: Paris

2026: Almaty

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hamburg2028.jpg

Moin Moin, bist Du aus Hamburg?

Moin, ursprünglich aus Niedersachsen - aber zur Zeit beruflich in den Niederlanden. Bin Norddeutschland aber sehr verbunden geblieben und würde die Olympischen Sommerspiele eines Tages liebend gerne quasi "in der Heimat" sehen.

Und Hamburg wäre dafür eine wunderbare Stadt...immerhin scheint der Hamburger Senat ja diese Idee parteienübergreifend aufzugreifen/weiterzuführen. Das Wichtigste ist, dass Sommerspiele in Hamburg vom Standort, Lebensgefühl und der Botschaft, die Deutschland an den Rest der Welt aussenden könnte ("europäische Spiele, mit Leidenschaft und Bescheidenheit") einfach fantastisch passen würden!

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Moin, ursprünglich aus Niedersachsen - aber zur Zeit beruflich in den Niederlanden. Bin Norddeutschland aber sehr verbunden geblieben und würde die Olympischen Sommerspiele eines Tages liebend gerne quasi "in der Heimat" sehen.

Und Hamburg wäre dafür eine wunderbare Stadt...immerhin scheint der Hamburger Senat ja diese Idee parteienübergreifend aufzugreifen/weiterzuführen. Das Wichtigste ist, dass Sommerspiele in Hamburg vom Standort, Lebensgefühl und der Botschaft, die Deutschland an den Rest der Welt aussenden könnte ("europäische Spiele, mit Leidenschaft und Bescheidenheit") einfach fantastisch passen würden!

Sehr Norddeutsch das Ganze hier ;) .

Sehe ich auch so, lieber Spiele in Hamburg als in Bayern. Mal ohne die typischen Trachtengruppen. ;)

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Richtig - das hanseatische Lebensgefühl hätte zwar nicht das Feuer des brasilianischen Sambas oder die Lockerheit eines australischen "G'day", aber es wäre eine fantastische Werbung für uns als Sport- und Kulturnation, die inzwischen eine vielfältige und vor allem europäische Gesellschaft zu bieten hat.

Berlin wäre mir persönlich zu vorhersagbar (und ist pleite) - München sollte lieber das Double "Sommer- und Winterspiele" anstreben.

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My predictions for 2020 and beyond

Summer Olympic Games

2020- Tokyo

2024- Paris

2028- Melbourne

2032- Durban (first African Nation to host an Olympic Games)

2036- Berlin (celebrating 100 years of the Nazi Olympics)

2040- New York City (First American City since Atlanta to host a Summer Olympic Games)

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HA Melbourne 2028? You think Australia will get 2 games before America gets 2 games? AOC has already said they'd prefer Brisbane + I think they'd be smart enough to know NOT to bid so soon to Sydney. I don't understand Berlin 2036 especially the 100 year anniversary would not benefit them at all!

I agree with first two remove Melbourne and replace with Durban then NYC then idk a bit far

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HA Melbourne 2028? You think Australia will get 2 games before America gets 2 games? AOC has already said they'd prefer Brisbane + I think they'd be smart enough to know NOT to bid so soon to Sydney. I don't understand Berlin 2036 especially the 100 year anniversary would not benefit them at all!

I agree with first two remove Melbourne and replace with Durban then NYC then idk a bit far

Yeah, I gotta agree about Melbourne and Berlin.

Melbourne, whilst being a very attractive location, is not hosting the Games until well into the 2040s. Australia had its bite in the Olympic apple in 2000. It's quite simply not Oceania's turn.

Concerning Berlin: Whilst the Mayor may have made some noises in relation to a potential bid, the Summer Games would have no popular support in Berlin (which is a city with a substantial Left Party and Green element - who are the natural coalition partners for the Social Democrats in Berlin), none in the rest of the country (Germany has already become too Berlin-centric) and has no experience mounting quality bids (Its 2000 bid was a complete disaster...Anyone remember that they researched the sexual preferences of IOC members and didn't include wider civil society - something that led to bombings of sponsors' offices and branches in the city?). FInally, and most fatally, Berlin is practically bankrupt (a debt of €60 billion and mounting) and already dependent on federal government funds. And it goes without saying that Germans wouldn't be so stupid to apply for 2036, given all the associations with the National Socialist era it would evoke. Finally, the city has become a joke among Germans, as they're not even able to complete their international airport in time. If it's gonna be Germany, it will be in 2028 or 2032, and it will either be Hamburg or Munich. That is, if the National Olympic Committee in Germany don't fall for another string quartet and inspirational video, like they did in the case of Leipzig (hopeless!) for 2012!

As for New York City, I really doubt the United States will be content waiting until 2040 for its next home Games!

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XXXII Summer 2020 - Tokyo, Japan

XXIV Winter 2022 - Barcelona, Spain

XXXIII Summer 2024 - Philadelphia, USA

XXV Winter 2026 - Astana, Kazakhstan

XXXIV Summer 2028 - Baku, Azerbaijan

XXVI Winter 2030 - Oslo, Norway

XXXV Summer 2032 - Manila, Philippines

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XXXII Summer 2020 - Tokyo, Japan

XXIV Winter 2022 - Barcelona, Spain

XXXIII Summer 2024 - Philadelphia, USA

XXV Winter 2026 - Astana, Kazakhstan

XXXIV Summer 2028 - Baku, Azerbaijan

XXVI Winter 2030 - Oslo, Norway

XXXV Summer 2032 - Manila, Philippines

Manilla? Is that a joke?

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nope, i really want to see an olympics in the philippines one day, it could be very interesting. however it sadly can't happen until they get a better government

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XXXII Summer 2020 - Tokyo, Japan

XXIV Winter 2022 - Barcelona, Spain

XXXIII Summer 2024 - Philadelphia, USA

XXV Winter 2026 - Astana, Kazakhstan

XXXIV Summer 2028 - Baku, Azerbaijan

XXVI Winter 2030 - Oslo, Norway

XXXV Summer 2032 - Manila, Philippines

is this Blacksheep reincarnated?

Not only does Philadelphia have a challanege against Paris and Africa they have to get picked by USOC over NYC or Chicago or L.A.

Barcelona? They haven't bid once with them only Jaca but maybe it's a England situation don't bid with Birmingham and Manchester bid for bigger and then they won on first bid with London same with Jaca then Barcelona.

Way to soon for Baku i have to say. Baku is still behind Doha even and still has a while to go to becoming recognized. Where's South Africa and Paris?

And Manila? My friends went their exactly last year said people were lovely and relatively cheap stuff but it was a poor city and not built up. and had people with these weird vehicles and it just doesn't look ready for 2032.

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Barcelona? They haven't bid once with them only Jaca but maybe it's a England situation don't bid with Birmingham and Manchester bid for bigger and then they won on first bid with London same with Jaca then Barcelona.

Barcelona has virtually all the venues needed and is about 100miles to La Molina both by road and by train. La Molina, as a resort, has held World Skiing events before.

Jaca is not big enough to host on its own and neither is the next nearest large city of Huesca. They tried to link with Zaragoza, but this bid has pulled out. The distance between Zaragoza and Jaca was a problem and I think they failed with their bid in 2014 as they tried to get around this.

I think Turin2006 won with their first bid, and Barcelona offers the IOC a chance to go to the Pyrenees for the first time, a new Western country to host the Winter Olympics and reward Spain for the efforts it has made with Madrid if they aren't awarded 2020. The Winter Olympics would be comparatively cheap for Spain to host.

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is this Blacksheep reincarnated?

Not only does Philadelphia have a challanege against Paris and Africa they have to get picked by USOC over NYC or Chicago or L.A.

Barcelona? They haven't bid once with them only Jaca but maybe it's a England situation don't bid with Birmingham and Manchester bid for bigger and then they won on first bid with London same with Jaca then Barcelona.

Way to soon for Baku i have to say. Baku is still behind Doha even and still has a while to go to becoming recognized. Where's South Africa and Paris?

And Manila? My friends went their exactly last year said people were lovely and relatively cheap stuff but it was a poor city and not built up. and had people with these weird vehicles and it just doesn't look ready for 2032.

Darcy, I agree with you on your assessment. Let me throw in my two cents as well.

Examining the patterns of IOC votes over the past few decades shows that it's quite rare for the Committee to award the Games to a pioneering city (I'm not including repeat hosts like London or Athens here) on its first attempt - I think Sydney was the last city to manage this feat. However, one may argue that Sydney was a special case, since there were human rights concerns about the People's Republic. Whilst Philadelphia is an amazing treasure for anyone (like me) interesting in the history of the United States (and its foundation), I think its symbolism only reaches that far. Let's also not forget that Philadelphia is part of the industrial heartland of the United States, which is currently going through an economic crisis of sorts (and has been facing a precipitous decline over the past few years; if there are any native Pennsylvanians who are able to provide more accurate information, please feel free to correct me). Finally, the city just lacks the "wow" effect of New York City or West Coast Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco. On that note, I don't think that Chicago will be applying again - the city's press wasn't exactly convinced and Mayor Emmanuel will not want to risk another first-round exit.

Barcelona won't be hosting a Winter Olympics or, for that case, the Summer Olympics for the foreseeable future. Why? Spain is practically broke, its banks on life support by the European Union and 50% of its young people unemployed. I honestly think the country has other priorities than spending money on an ill-advised Winter Olympics bid. In that regard, I also maintain that if Madrid officials do not possess the foresight and wisdom to end their bid (like Rome did), they will be shot down by the IOC. After all the discussions about how the Olympic Games might have caused a steeper decline in economic fortunes for Athens and Greece, the IOC will not wish to risk more damage to the Olympic brand.

Baku? A vanity bid with no substance at this time. They also did not manage to make the cut to become a Candidate City. Hosting the Eurovision Song Contest (by winning the previous edition) is one thing. Hosting the Olympic Games? Completely different kettle of fish. Plus, the inevitable discussions about human rights et cetera.

Manila is also not going to get to host the Games anytime soon. There are countries like France, Germany, the United States, Canada, China (Shanghai or Hong Kong), South Africa and (once they have sorted out certain logistical and organizational matters) India waiting for their turn at the till. It's unfair, but the Philippines quite simply do not have any economic leverage in a wider context, unlike the countries named here. The IOC decides on the basis of narrative, commercial interests and organizational discipline (the last element being the key reason why I don't see India hosting any Olympic Games until the mid to late-2030s at the earliest; even though I hope they surprise me). Before Manila gets to host, Auckland is more likely to get its hands on the Games.

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Darcy, I agree with you on your assessment. Let me throw in my two cents as well.

Examining the patterns of IOC votes over the past few decades shows that it's quite rare for the Committee to award the Games to a pioneering city (I'm not including repeat hosts like London or Athens here) on its first attempt - I think Sydney was the last city to manage this feat. However, one may argue that Sydney was a special case, since there were human rights concerns about the People's Republic. Whilst Philadelphia is an amazing treasure for anyone (like me) interesting in the history of the United States (and its foundation), I think its symbolism only reaches that far. Let's also not forget that Philadelphia is part of the industrial heartland of the United States, which is currently going through an economic crisis of sorts (and has been facing a precipitous decline over the past few years; if there are any native Pennsylvanians who are able to provide more accurate information, please feel free to correct me). Finally, the city just lacks the "wow" effect of New York City or West Coast Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco. On that note, I don't think that Chicago will be applying again - the city's press wasn't exactly convinced and Mayor Emmanuel will not want to risk another first-round exit.

Barcelona won't be hosting a Winter Olympics or, for that case, the Summer Olympics for the foreseeable future. Why? Spain is practically broke, its banks on life support by the European Union and 50% of its young people unemployed. I honestly think the country has other priorities than spending money on an ill-advised Winter Olympics bid. In that regard, I also maintain that if Madrid officials do not possess the foresight and wisdom to end their bid (like Rome did), they will be shot down by the IOC. After all the discussions about how the Olympic Games might have caused a steeper decline in economic fortunes for Athens and Greece, the IOC will not wish to risk more damage to the Olympic brand.

I think with the USA, it is very much who decides to bid. There is a Washington-Baltimore option but having two different city mayors working together could be a challenge. A trump card that Philadelphia might hold is that it is the HQ of Comcast, parent company of NBC Universal, which could help a Philadelphia bid in the same way Coca Cola helped positively influence Atlanta's bid. I don't think Philadelphia suffered as much as the rest of Pennsylvania and it has a very diversified economy - reading a little about it, historically medicine and pharmaceuticals have been very important and these industries tend to be recession proof. If it comes down to Philadelphia v Los Angeles it could be tough decision for the USA. Lets not forget that the state of California is bankrupt (or close to it)

As for Spain and its' economy, public support for Madrid both in the city and in the nation remains very high. There is a feeling that an Olympics will create jobs both in the construction sector and postgames as well as leave a positive feel good factor. Lets not forget 2020 is 8years away. Therefore a Barcelona Winter Olympics in 2022 will be 10years away and if Madrid loses, the award of the games will help overcome the negativity generated by this rejection. Barcelona has a number of indoor venues that can be cheaply adapted for the indoor sports leaving only the major outdoor construction. Looking up La Molina, until recently they did have a ski jump so they have a location which does not need to be cleared, and construction of a bobsleigh run and new Olympic village with create jobs. With Hollande in power and the EU thinking there needs to be an emphasis on investment as well as debt reduction, this could be the sort of project which does get authorised.

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It would be interesting to discuss about if Olympic Games are a welfare corporation or not - respectively what the "main focusses" are of the Olympic Games...

A very interesting question?

Outside of the USA, because the high amount of government spending involved, there often will be a social angle because the Games are being funded by the taxpayer.

Also if, as some have written, the requirement exists to have a post-games legacy, this would lead to the respective Olympic Villages often been converted into 'affordable housing', a welfare issue, as well as other facilities and venues being handed over for public and community use, so it would appear that the IOC see a social angle to an Olympic Games.

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