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runningrings

(serious) predictions for 2020/22/24/26

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Of course Id like to see the Olympic games in Istanbul, it would be a great opportunity for the country to show it's culture and ability to host major events. I am only discussing the topic of security because I do feel it would harm the city's chance of winning.

I still argue that Istanbul's biggest problem is nightmarish transportation. The city is very spread out. The venues will be more so and the commute will take forever.

If the IOC goes for Istanbul, they will have to ignore A LOT of technical deficiencies. Obviously they've done that before, so it's entirely possible. I'm still expecting Tokyo. I think it's the wise choice.

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Tokyo will win, Istanbul has a distant shot but they will want safe after two differents olympics. Tokyo have an unexpected emotional factor and its victory opens a fantastic race for 2024.

If Madrid wins only Tokyo might be back against an African & maybe US city, if Tokyo wins it's 2012 II and that's a movie IOC would love to see. Being the center of attention again, the ultimate race. I know IOC, they are vulturs, they won't resist the appeal of such a race.

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ok thats the last drop of my patience....

what u know about turkey from 15000 km s away? did u ever visit ? ever saw the athletes in london 2012? ever have an idea about Turkey? im not happy with AKP either, but Turkey is a democratic secular parliamentary social republic, which is not like Israel, Greece, Spain nor many other western countries.and if someone try to change this it, the Turkish people will punish dem not the army or the police. the thing people u dont get it is st in out history. we had our independence with half our citizens lives and blood, even some try to evolve the people to conservative line or social whatever u name the core is the same. some things are sacred here and no one can try to change these. if so it will turn into a civil war and wont be happy ending like arap spring, it will spread out to the other Islamic countries and burn your borders too... dont mix Turkey with other countries we had an imperial background for thousands of years and a democracy for 200 years.

Ok you're right, I'm not on the ground, I can only go by what is reported here. I actually admire the Turkish ability to oust a government that is exceeding the set boundaries either by military coup, or by the popular revolution. I apologize if I offended you.

*major facepalm*

The same could be said for the US, Germany or France, and even my own Australia. All grapple with right-wing religious parties that attempt to assert their beliefs onto the wider population. The JDP of Turkey is no different here. The major difference is their values are not underpinned by Christianity, but rather Islam.

Your sentiment reinforces my original suggestion that ultimately people are uncomfortable with the fact that Istanbul is a predominantly Islamic city, but disguising it as safety concerns, issues which are could be applied to any prospective Olympic host.

I can't lie I'm queasy regarding Islam, and you're right about the right wing being oppressive and controlling everywhere. From everything I've read and seen of Turkey it's an awesome place, Istanbul looks absolutely beautiful, I think Turkish culture is fascinating. I think an Istanbul Olympics would be pretty cool to watch, just wish the timezone would be better haha NBC would tape delay it all just like London.

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Each Summer/Winter games combo will be hosted in the same continent..This will be a first :P

2020 - Madrid,Spain

2022 - Munich,Germany

2024 - Toronto,Canada

2026 - Denver,USA

2028 - Tokyo,Japan

2030 - Harbin,China

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Harbin are TOO FAR from the skiing facilities and the IOC have repeatedly said this.

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The IOC can say whatever they want, the fact is the Winter Games rotation is fast approaching it's breaking point. So they either need to come out and change the rules to allow much laxer co-hosting (enabling cities like Harbin or even Boston to host), or they need to just go back to the old ski village system. There are only so many cities that can accommodate the Winter Olympics as they are.

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The IOC can say whatever they want, the fact is the Winter Games rotation is fast approaching it's breaking point. So they either need to come out and change the rules to allow much laxer co-hosting (enabling cities like Harbin or even Boston to host), or they need to just go back to the old ski village system. There are only so many cities that can accommodate the Winter Olympics as they are.

+1

My predictions

2020: Madrid

2022: Munich

2024: Tokyo

2026: Oslo

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If Madrid wins only Tokyo might be back against an African & maybe US city,

The Japanese have pretty much said that "2020 is last chance" if they don't get this. So I woudn't expect a 2024 run with them, especially when their 2020 bid wasn't all that easy to convince everyone to try for a 2nd time.

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The Japanese have pretty much said that "2020 is last chance" if they don't get this. So I woudn't expect a 2024 run with them, especially when their 2020 bid wasn't all that easy to convince everyone to try for a 2nd time.

I didn't know this FYI, thanks for sharing. Was this recently published?

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2020: Tokyo

2022: St-Moritz

2024: Saint-Petersburg

2026: Denver

2028: New York

2030: Harbin

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Hmmm, do you think this is just a tactic implemented by the Tokyo bid team to get more votes?

One could look at it that way. But considering that one of the low elements of the Tokyo 2020 bid is public support, even by the IOC's own preliminary polls, I wouldn't necessarily take it with a grain of salt, either.

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Hi guys!

I'm a newbie -- but I've observed this website for a number of years and I understand host city predictions are a faux pax on here. But I thought I'd give it a go anyway. :) I had a look for other threads like this but I had no luck? Sorry if I've doubled up. But given this one only goes up to 2026 - this is all about being as succinct as possible - not justifying why you think its acceptable for Santiago to host the 2050 Winter Olympics after hosting the 2040 Summer Olympics. :D

One rule:

-Nothing beyond 2026 - it's pointless!

2020 - Istanbul (although I concede Tokyo has the better bid technically, Istanbul will win on the sentimental vote. Given the concessions already made, it could be to Rogge what Beijing 2008 was to Samaranch.)

2022 - Munich(a Winter Olympics at the heart of Europe, in one of its most powerful Olympic nations + a whole swagger of sentimentality attached to a Munich Winter Olympics)

2024 - New York City (with 2020 in Euro/West Asia and 2022 in Europe, the US is a glaringly obvious frontrunner for 2024. I predict a Paris-USA showdown, with the French tradition of heartbreak enduring. It could be any US city, but Chicago had a shot last time, and the West Coast has had it frequently. If NYC does go into 2024 with a new plan - I can't see the USOC turning them down. Aside from Chicago - perhaps Boston, Washington DC or Philadelphia could do it? All are iconic "boutique" cities that could put on a quintessential American Olympiad. Basically, if we go back to the USA, I'd like to see the East Coast, we've had the West in 84 and South in 96, this would bring it full circle).

2026 - Harbin. I'd like to say New Zealand, but I've adjusted to the brutal reality I might not see the OWG's in the Southern Hemisphere in my lifetime due to scheduling issues. Given that, I think in the next few years we'll see China put up its hand for the Winter Olympics, and Harbin would surely be the obvious choice. If don't see Japan putting a bid forward for another OWG (can see them holding out for a 2028 bid with somewhere like Tokyo, Osaka or Hiroshima), and if not Harbin, a close second would be Europe again in 2026 - perhaps far western Europe (Jaca?) or Scandinavia (Ostersund? Oslo?).

Why would NYC want to bid for 2024? They couldn't even get a stadium deal struck for their 2012 bid when they could build a stadium and actually reuse it for one of the area's teams. Now all of the baseball and football teams have new stadiums with long term leases.

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Harbin are TOO FAR from the skiing facilities and the IOC have repeatedly said this.

I don't think it matters where China's concerned. The IOC will ignore all kinds of technical problems to give China their first Winter Games. I believe Harbin will host fairly soon. As others have noted, options for Winter Games are dwindling....

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^ I agree, AF. I don't C how Yabuli, 125 miles miles from Harbin, is "too far", especially where China's concerned. It'll be a trivial matter to the IOC, just like Rio's spread out 4-cluster concept was seen as "acceptable".

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^ I agree, AF. I don't C how Yabuli, 125 miles miles from Harbin, is "too far", especially where China's concerned. It'll be a trivial matter to the IOC, just like Rio's spread out 4-cluster concept was seen as "acceptable".

Its not far but it takes about 4 hours to get there from Harbin. That needs to be improved significantly.

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Hmmm, do you think this is just a tactic implemented by the Tokyo bid team to get more votes?

The fact is that 2020 really isn't Tokyo's last chance, but it may be their best one because of the smaller, weaker field. Tokyo may CHOOSE not to bid again for a long time, but if Istanbul wins 2020, Tokyo could try again for 2024 or 2028 and could easily be a favorite in either race. Tokyo is the most obvious choice for the next Asian host of the Summer Games (over China and Korea) -- it's just a question of when.

Everybody knows that Africa, the USA and Europe are all waiting in the wings. I can see where Japan would be nervous about the future, but this doesn't have to be the end for them.

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Its not far but it takes about 4 hours to get there from Harbin. That needs to be improved significantly.

It's China. I'm sure that they would move Heaven & Earth to make their first Winter Games happen. Just like they did with Beijing, their very first Olympic Games.

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like if Harbin is out, where do you go? we're already down to a bunch of repeat hosts and a mix of no profile cities in sketchy locations (LET'S ALL GO TO BULGARIA!) and ski villages far too small for the modern Olympics.

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Everybody knows that Africa, the USA and Europe are all waiting in the wings.

Actually, everyone doesn't know this. The US has no city making even the first steps towards a bid, and the economic conditions that kept RSA's government from supporting a 2020 bid are still around. Each could come up with a strong bid, but there's a ton of uncertainty.

Should Tokyo lose to Madrid, Europe gets knocked out for 2024 and suddenly 2024 could start to look *very* good for Tokyo.

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like if Harbin is out, where do you go? we're already down to a bunch of repeat hosts and a mix of no profile cities in sketchy locations (LET'S ALL GO TO BULGARIA!) and ski villages far too small for the modern Olympics.

Don't know about you guys, but I'd much rather go to Sofia than Harbin.

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If Tokyo and/or Madrid loses i doubt either of them will have a go for 2024. With Spain losing 3 olympics in a row i doubt they'd have a 4th go especially in there economic situation. As for Japan support is already low for a 2nd bid hope they get it though!

Don't know about you guys, but I'd much rather go to Sofia than Harbin.

No way. Bulgaria is way to unsafe for me. Know that sounds harsh but i would definitely not travel there. I'd love Harbin to host

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If Tokyo and/or Madrid loses i doubt either of them will have a go for 2024. With Spain losing 3 olympics in a row i doubt they'd have a 4th go especially in there economic situation. As for Japan support is already low for a 2nd bid hope they get it though!

No way. Bulgaria is way to unsafe for me. Know that sounds harsh but i would definitely not travel there. I'd love Harbin to host

Sofia not safe its right beside Istanbul? This from the person who support Doha which is in a more volatile middle East.

In 1992 Sofia was close to winning.

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