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runningrings

(serious) predictions for 2020/22/24/26

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The back-to-back in North America i agree with. But why can't there be 2 straight in Europe? Happened plenty of times before, recently too. At this point, I don't see how the 2022 Winter Olympics would be anywhere other than Europe. Doesn't seem like there's anyone in Asia likely to bid. We know the United States is out. Too soon for Canada. So unless you think they're going to avoid Europe for 2020, 2022 might be a given for Europe.

Yeah. I know. I was just stating that I don't think that IOC would have 4 games in a row in only 2 continents.

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The back-to-back in North America i agree with. But why can't there be 2 straight in Europe? Happened plenty of times before, recently too. At this point, I don't see how the 2022 Winter Olympics would be anywhere other than Europe. Doesn't seem like there's anyone in Asia likely to bid. We know the United States is out. Too soon for Canada. So unless you think they're going to avoid Europe for 2020, 2022 might be a given for Europe.

Well last time it happened (2004-2006) the iOC had to go back to Europe and 2022 looks like it will be a similar situation.

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Yeah. I know. I was just stating that I don't think that IOC would have 4 games in a row in only 2 continents.

Again what needs to be emphasised is that because of the seasonal nature of winter sports, there are only 3 continents that can host the Winter Olympics so if one bails out you are stuck with either or.

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Need I remind you more then 50% of Toronto's population does not speak English as its first language. But off course I get your anglophone point because it is Canada after all.

This is irrelevant. English is by far (still over 50%) the most spoken first language of Toronto (according to Statistics Canada), and English is an official language of Canada. There is no other dominant language within the other half of that statistic to make Toronto truly bilingual. Therefore Toronto falls into the Anglo-sphere.

While Los Angeles or Miami statistically have less cultural groups, they are dominated by Latino cultures within their foreign born populations, so you'd have an easier task of arguing that a Miami Olympics could be considered a Latin American AND Anglo Olympics.

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To host the Summer Olympic Games:

2020 - Istanbul (the favourite I think)

2024 - Toronto

2028 - Cape Town

2032 - Brisbane or Melbourne

2036 - US city (Chicago or New York)

(......)

2048 - LONDON

I'd swap Toronto and US city around. I don't think Canada can/will land 2 games before America gets one. that would 40 years since a summer games for america! Also probably swap Toronto then with Brisbane/Melbourne to soon for us Aussies although we will want to bring it back we won't win... yet.

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I'd swap Toronto and US city around. I don't think Canada can/will land 2 games before America gets one. that would 40 years since a summer games for america! Also probably swap Toronto then with Brisbane/Melbourne to soon for us Aussies although we will want to bring it back we won't win... yet.

Interesting thought. I see Baptista has not put in the Winter Games.

If Los Angeles really is the best US option, I can see maybe the USOC waiting until 1932 and the centenary games and maybe going 2026 where a North American bid is in pole position for the Winter Games.

2020: Tokyo - I have a sneaking suspision that the Turkey bid will stumble at the end

2022: Barcelona/La Molina - the greatest legacy and a sop to Spain

2024: Paris

2026: Denver

2028: Durban

2030: Changchun (PRC)

2032: Los Angeles

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Interesting thought. I see Baptista has not put in the Winter Games.

If Los Angeles really is the best US option, I can see maybe the USOC waiting until 1932 and the centenary games and maybe going 2026 where a North American bid is in pole position for the Winter Games.

2020: Tokyo - I have a sneaking suspision that the Turkey bid will stumble at the end

2022: Barcelona/La Molina - the greatest legacy and a sop to Spain

2024: Paris

2026: Denver

2028: Durban

2030: Changchun (PRC)

2032: Los Angeles

Interesting thought. I see Baptista has not put in the Winter Games.

If Los Angeles really is the best US option, I can see maybe the USOC waiting until 1932 and the centenary games and maybe going 2026 where a North American bid is in pole position for the Winter Games.

2020: Tokyo - I have a sneaking suspision that the Turkey bid will stumble at the end

2022: Barcelona/La Molina - the greatest legacy and a sop to Spain

2024: Paris

2026: Denver

2028: Durban

2030: Changchun (PRC)

2032: Los Angeles

oh he did put winter games i edited them out cause i wasn't going to talk about it.

I don't see America going for a winter games before summer. I have a feeling now that Paris won't get 2024 and it may go back to USA. then Paris 2028 Africa 2032 and possibly China 2036 unless they go for winter games

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The IOC has made it abundantly clear they want to move the Games all over the globe. They've also made it clear that they want to diminish the role of the USA.

No country will host two Games within 6 years of each other. The IOC is not going to vote to give the USA 2032 in 2025 -- one year before the USA even hosts 2026.

I believe the minimum gap between two Games for the same country is 14 years and probably closer to 18. If the US gets 2026, that means they won't have a shot at Summer Games until 2040 at the earliest, more likely 2044 -- nearly 50 years after Atlanta.

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The IOC has made it abundantly clear they want to move the Games all over the globe. They've also made it clear that they want to diminish the role of the USA.

No country will host two Games within 6 years of each other. The IOC is not going to vote to give the USA 2032 in 2025 -- one year before the USA even hosts 2026.

I believe the minimum gap between two Games for the same country is 14 years and probably closer to 18. If the US gets 2026, that means they won't have a shot at Summer Games until 2040 at the earliest, more likely 2044 -- nearly 50 years after Atlanta.

Geopolitically when North America is needed to host the WOG which is going to be sometime after 2022 it will be the USA hosting don't you think?

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Geopolitically when North America is needed to host the WOG which is going to be sometime after 2022 it will be the USA hosting don't you think?

Not necessarily. Canada has the same chance of hosting a winter games as the US maybe more. Especially if the US focuses on a summer bid and their relationship with the IOC deson't improve.

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There also is no reason why the Winter Games MUST come back to North America in 2026. Yes, it seems to fit well into the rotation, but it does not have to happen that way.

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Winter Games will return to North America/the US in 2026. USA will NOT bid for 2024. Mark my words.

In which case the US won't host Summer Games again until the 40's or 50's. That will adversely affect American audiences, athletes, sponsors and the worldwide Olympic movement. Mark my words.

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In which case the US won't host Summer Games again until the 40's or 50's. That will adversely affect American audiences, athletes, sponsors and the worldwide Olympic movement. Mark my words.

Eh. The Summer Games were absent from the US from 1932 until 1984, yet when they returned, even without the evil Commies (altho there were the token Commie appearance put in by the Chinese, the Roma and the Yugos), they were still a smash! Much like London this year. Away from the UK for some 64 years, yet as we just saw this summer, was greeted by the UK home crowds with a vengeance.

So how could you say that the absence of the Summer Games from US shores would result in diminishing interest on the part of the US public? The US still sends the largest delegations to BOTH OGs; so the US public will still follow the Games regardless of medium or distance. Precisely, if it comes around too often; people will take it for granted. So a good 50-60 year absence will actually build up greater anticipation for the event coming back to (US) shores. So sorry, AF, your argument that a delayed Summers will adversely affect US Olympic interest is a little disingenuous.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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I have to admit I see Baron's point here. The longer the wait, the higher the build up - although hopefully not too long.

You can't deny that the Summer Olympics in a large, iconic American city some 28 years after Atlanta would engulf the nation in a way that the 1996 event was not able to.

I believe between 1980 and 2002 the US probably became desensitised to the value of the Games. With the growth of the internet and social media, especially in the USA, I think the next American Olympics will be truly on the next level.

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I believe between 1980 and 2002 the US probably became desensitised to the value of the Games.

Yet the 1994 World Cup still maintains the LARGEST paid attendance records for a World Cup to this day...in a country where soccer supposedly isn't even the top-drawing sport. Go figure.

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I don't think there will be any excuse for any country to lose interest in the Games just because they don't get to host it. This isn't like the olden days. Every Games gets such massive coverage both on tv and online nowadays that it's accessible to most on this planet no matter where the Games are played. Hosting should be seen as a bonus and not as a requirement to keeping the people interested in the Olympics.

The US, of all countries, will probably be the last country to tune out of the Olympics, given their history of involvement, and the fact they dominate the medal standings every time. I could see the US hosting a Summer Games 20 years after their last if all the stars aligned, but I could also see them 50 years after their last too if the stars don't align.

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Eh. The Summer Games were absent from the US from 1932 until 1984, yet when they returned, even without the evil Commies (altho there were the token Commie appearance put in by the Chinese, the Roma and the Yugos), they were still a smash! Much like London this year. Away from the UK for some 64 years, yet as we just saw this summer, was greeted by the UK home crowds with a vengeance.

So how could you say that the absence of the Summer Games from US shores would result in diminishing interest on the part of the US public? The US still sends the largest delegations to BOTH OGs; so the US public will still follow the Games regardless of medium or distance. Precisely, if it comes around too often; people will take it for granted. So a good 50-60 year absence will actually build up greater anticipation for the event coming back to (US) shores. So sorry, AF, your argument that a delayed Summers will adversely affect US Olympic interest is a little disingenuous.

The world has changed dramatically. This is the internet age. Entertainment options abound. People get distracted easily. It's tough to hang onto audience share. I have no doubt American viewership will last ok through 2020 and maybe into the 20's as well. But all the way to the 40's or 50's without domestic Games? You really think that's going to have zero impact?

There's no way to know for certain until it plays out, but that's one gamble I hope the USOC doesn't take.

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The world has changed dramatically. This is the internet age. Entertainment options abound. People get distracted easily. It's tough to hang onto audience share. I have no doubt American viewership will last ok through 2020 and maybe into the 20's as well. But all the way to the 40's or 50's without domestic Games? You really think that's going to have zero impact?

There's no way to know for certain until it plays out, but that's one gamble I hope the USOC doesn't take.

Neeeh. In a country of 310 million right now, in a continent of 450 mil right now, the numbers and the interest will always be there. The number of Olympic geeks alone around the world will grow exponentially as time goes by. Unless say, it's held in a country like North Korea, the numbers will always be there. Another statistic to remember: it is a known fact that US fans were the biggest foreign contingent that flew down to RSA for the 2010 World Cup (some 8,000mi, or 12,900km away, on 17+ hour-flight measuring just NYC - Jo'burg) for what 2 or 3 games -- in the middle of a US recession?? I wonder what the 2012 stats will reveal once the figures are all compiled and collated.

I am sure applications to go to Rio will break records notwithstanding the outrageous $49 cost for a Brazilian visa for a US citizen today. I wish Brazil and the US would whittle down their tit-for-tat visa application oneups-personship game.

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There also is no reason why the Winter Games MUST come back to North America in 2026. Yes, it seems to fit well into the rotation, but it does not have to happen that way.

2022 then 2026 in Europe. Where does 2030 go if China is focused on a SOG

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I've always thought 2026, no matter the outcome of 2020, 2022 and 2024 is a great opportunity for China to take on a Winter Olympics. If they were to do it in 2026, then I think that they could still make a good case for a Summer Olympics in the late 2030's/40's.

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I've always thought 2026, no matter the outcome of 2020, 2022 and 2024 is a great opportunity for China to take on a Winter Olympics. If they were to do it in 2026, then I think that they could still make a good case for a Summer Olympics in the late 2030's/40's.

China's going to have to show to the IOC that giving them 2008 has paid off in legitimate civil liberties for their people...before they get a serious crack at another set of games. That was the big caveat in awarding 2008 to the PRC.

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