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(serious) predictions for 2020/22/24/26


runningrings

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Hi guys!

I'm a newbie -- but I've observed this website for a number of years and I understand host city predictions are a faux pax on here. But I thought I'd give it a go anyway. :) I had a look for other threads like this but I had no luck? Sorry if I've doubled up. But given this one only goes up to 2026 - this is all about being as succinct as possible - not justifying why you think its acceptable for Santiago to host the 2050 Winter Olympics after hosting the 2040 Summer Olympics. :D

One rule:

-Nothing beyond 2026 - it's pointless!

2020 - Istanbul (although I concede Tokyo has the better bid technically, Istanbul will win on the sentimental vote. Given the concessions already made, it could be to Rogge what Beijing 2008 was to Samaranch.)

2022 - Munich(a Winter Olympics at the heart of Europe, in one of its most powerful Olympic nations + a whole swagger of sentimentality attached to a Munich Winter Olympics)

2024 - New York City (with 2020 in Euro/West Asia and 2022 in Europe, the US is a glaringly obvious frontrunner for 2024. I predict a Paris-USA showdown, with the French tradition of heartbreak enduring. It could be any US city, but Chicago had a shot last time, and the West Coast has had it frequently. If NYC does go into 2024 with a new plan - I can't see the USOC turning them down. Aside from Chicago - perhaps Boston, Washington DC or Philadelphia could do it? All are iconic "boutique" cities that could put on a quintessential American Olympiad. Basically, if we go back to the USA, I'd like to see the East Coast, we've had the West in 84 and South in 96, this would bring it full circle).

2026 - Harbin. I'd like to say New Zealand, but I've adjusted to the brutal reality I might not see the OWG's in the Southern Hemisphere in my lifetime due to scheduling issues. Given that, I think in the next few years we'll see China put up its hand for the Winter Olympics, and Harbin would surely be the obvious choice. If don't see Japan putting a bid forward for another OWG (can see them holding out for a 2028 bid with somewhere like Tokyo, Osaka or Hiroshima), and if not Harbin, a close second would be Europe again in 2026 - perhaps far western Europe (Jaca?) or Scandinavia (Ostersund? Oslo?).

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All I can predict is the following:

Munich and Harbin will host winter Games semi-soon.

Paris, Durban, USA, Tokyo will all host Summer Games semi-soon.

Rome and Shanghai will get their chances in the more distant future.

I can't predict any more than that. I can't really guess as to the order. There are too many variables. I still think that's the general palette of hosts for the future.

Of course, if the USA winterizes, Canada will be up for Summer Games -- but I'd really prefer not to dwell on that scenario....

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How can usa host 2024 and 2030? The days of counties hosting that close are gone.

too many years passed since usa hosting... and where else left after euro- asia in winter games ? south america? ocenia?

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too many years passed since usa hosting... and where else left after euro- asia in winter games ? south america? ocenia?

Europe again? Norway, France, Ukraine, Bulgaria??

6 years after means the games will be awarded one year before the summer games in 2024. Highly doubtful.

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I don't want to offend our resident Turk, emre, but would safety be a major issue facing the Istanbul 2020 bid?

I mean the country borders Syria, Iran and Iraq - and with conflict in Iran growing more likely, Syria's issues may not be resolved for a while and Iraq is obviously unstable with weekly bombings.

Would the IOC really award it to Istanbul?

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I don't want to offend our resident Turk, emre, but would safety be a major issue facing the Istanbul 2020 bid?

I mean the country borders Syria, Iran and Iraq - and with conflict in Iran growing more likely, Syria's issues may not be resolved for a while and Iraq is obviously unstable with weekly bombings.

Would the IOC really award it to Istanbul?

Careful, someone by the name of blacksheep, aka, BS, will pounce on u for bringing up such a "trivial" matter!

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Any prediction that suggests any country can host two Games a mere six years apart is way off. I think 14 years is the absolute minimum.

I think 10 is possible given the right country only because the hosting of the first games and the bidding for the second wouldn't overlap that most. 6 years won't happen though.. I can't see a country, even the United States, putting their efforts into a bid while they're still to preparing to host an Olympics.

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I think 10 is possible given the right country only because the hosting of the first games and the bidding for the second wouldn't overlap that most.

But imagine what would have happened if Toronto had bid for 2020 (10 years after Vancouver). They would have gone down in flames.

Now imagine Chicago bidding for 2016 (14 years after Salt Lake City). We still heard cries of "The US AGAIN?! It's too soon!"

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Realistically, the countries that would most likely swing Summer and Winter Games so close together in the foreseeable future are the USA and China. I'd give outside chances to France, Germany and Canada. I don't imagine the IOC contemplating going to either Japan or Korea twice in such a narrow window. I still think that, if anything, a 14 year gap is an optimistic minimum -- for all of the aforementioned countries.

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Realistically, the countries that would most likely swing Summer and Winter Games so close together in the foreseeable future are the USA and China. I'd give outside chances to France, Germany and Canada. I don't imagine the IOC contemplating going to either Japan or Korea twice in such a narrow window. I still think that, if anything, a 14 year gap is an optimistic minimum -- for all of the aforementioned countries.

That's why I said only with the right country (and in the right circumstances). Plus part of the deal with NYC 2012 and Chicago 2016 wasn't just the separation from Salt Lake but also the frequent hostings from 1980-2002. That it will now be at least 20 years from Salt Lake, I don't think it's as unthinkable for 10 years. Although yes, that logic doesn't apply evenly and most countries would probably need to wait longer.

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2020 - Tokyo

2022 - Barcelona

2024 - Paris

2026 - Salt Lake City

2028 - Cape Town

2030 - Harbin

2032 - Toronto

The problem with 2022 is that, unlike in the far future, we know who's likely to bid but, unlike 2020, we don't know a lot about them. I think they'd prefer Barcelona over Munich, if only for the whole new frontiers thing and because there's still a lot of bad memories associated with 1972 even 40+ years later. But right now I'd give the edge to Oslo since they seem the most committed and the NOC bailed out the Youth Olympics. Really, I don't even know how to speculate so I'll just say Barca.

Basically, I see the USOC hedging their bets by throwing out a 2026 bid which would require as little financial support as possible (and could easily be pulled) along with a much better supported 2024 bid. I'd guess that 2024 would then see the IOC opt for Europe, reasoning that the Games were held in the Western Hemisphere only 8 years prior. SLC is really an ideal half-hearted bid as it would be based so heavily on existing infrastructure, but even with concerns about having hosted so recently it would probably top a field consisting of European countries and Kazakhstan.

Africa will not wait past 2028, period. I think SA will sit 2024 out, they know Cape Town is preferable to Durban and they will invest more time and resources into making that happen.

Harbin is ideal for 2030.

Toronto was a guess, honestly. I don't know how many times the IOC can deny them based on very little. Maybe Australia sneaks in there and the US grabs 2036, I don't know

As an alternative, I'd suggest a return to Calgary winning in the same vein as SLC in 2026 while the US city (let's call it LA) takes 2032.

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I don't want to offend our resident Turk, emre, but would safety be a major issue facing the Istanbul 2020 bid?

I mean the country borders Syria, Iran and Iraq - and with conflict in Iran growing more likely, Syria's issues may not be resolved for a while and Iraq is obviously unstable with weekly bombings.

Would the IOC really award it to Istanbul?

Istanbul Turkey is not a real safe place for the Olympics Games right now so many wars going on in that area and that area is now really unstable so until that area becomes safer I do not see the Olympics Games going to Turkey and Istanbul never hosted a larger multi sporting event and the Transportation system in that city suck so it will not be really good place to host the Olympics I can see the Olympics Games in 2020 to be going to Tokyo Japan is is a safe city and they will put on an Amazing Olympics Games .

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2020 - Tokyo

2022 - Barcelona

2024 - Paris

2026 - Salt Lake City

2028 - Cape Town

2030 - Harbin

2032 - Toronto

The problem with 2022 is that, unlike in the far future, we know who's likely to bid but, unlike 2020, we don't know a lot about them. I think they'd prefer Barcelona over Munich, if only for the whole new frontiers thing and because there's still a lot of bad memories associated with 1972 even 40+ years later. But right now I'd give the edge to Oslo since they seem the most committed and the NOC bailed out the Youth Olympics. Really, I don't even know how to speculate so I'll just say Barca.

Basically, I see the USOC hedging their bets by throwing out a 2026 bid which would require as little financial support as possible (and could easily be pulled) along with a much better supported 2024 bid. I'd guess that 2024 would then see the IOC opt for Europe, reasoning that the Games were held in the Western Hemisphere only 8 years prior. SLC is really an ideal half-hearted bid as it would be based so heavily on existing infrastructure, but even with concerns about having hosted so recently it would probably top a field consisting of European countries and Kazakhstan.

Africa will not wait past 2028, period. I think SA will sit 2024 out, they know Cape Town is preferable to Durban and they will invest more time and resources into making that happen.

Harbin is ideal for 2030.

Toronto was a guess, honestly. I don't know how many times the IOC can deny them based on very little. Maybe Australia sneaks in there and the US grabs 2036, I don't know

As an alternative, I'd suggest a return to Calgary winning in the same vein as SLC in 2026 while the US city (let's call it LA) takes 2032.

where did Barcelona come from? I know Jaca has been trying haven't seen a Barcelona bid and doubt they'd get it first time bid. Salt lake city? Really? Not only is it too soon, the scandal i'm sure is still in there minds especially if it is the SAME city. There are other US cities more then willing to go for a winter games but i think they'd go for a summer ones first. 2 winters in a row?

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I don't want to offend our resident Turk, emre, but would safety be a major issue facing the Istanbul 2020 bid?

I mean the country borders Syria, Iran and Iraq - and with conflict in Iran growing more likely, Syria's issues may not be resolved for a while and Iraq is obviously unstable with weekly bombings.

Would the IOC really award it to Istanbul?

not offended but thinking its a silly excuse.

hmmms if sochi why not Istanbul? altough there tens of miles between Georgia South Osethia area between sochi, Chechenia and also armenia azerbaijan conflict.. also closer to Iran than Istanbul? and there will be another sport event in Mersin at 2013 ( med. games) with 4000 athletes. which is nearly border to Syria

i appreciate risks and questions about technical challenges and transportation about 2020 bid but not this kind things guys sorry...

its not our fault of western countries draw the bordes with a pen after ww1 in middle east:) and the longest peace agreement in the world is between Iran and Turkey Since 1639 still we have the same borders nothing changed.

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