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Sports Illustrated Olympic Games Predictions


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I just got the magazine, if you want to know a few let me know (i'm not going to type everything). It looks like they will have their "live from london" iPad/iPhone/Android app out tomorrow and will do a slow roll out of content.

I wonder whether you could do a quick count up of New Zealand me me?

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I may have missed a few but it looked like 3 gold, 7 silver, 3 bronze, with the vast majority coming in rowing and sailing.

Thanks, will have a closer look once they are posted online.

Cheers

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The Associated Press has also made medal predictions:

http://www.state-journal.com/ap%20sports/2012/07/20/london-olympics-medal-projections

They give the USA a far bigger advantage, in my opinion a too big advantage. According to my counts, the medal table is:

Gold Silver Bronze TOTAL 1 USA 48 29 43 120 2 China 37 27 25 89 3 Russia 29 25 30 84 4 Great Britain 25 20 21 66 5 Australia 16 12 8 36 6 Japan 16 11 9 36 7 Germany 11 25 15 51 8 France 11 12 17 40 9 South Korea 9 8 15 32 10 Italy 8 5 18 31 11 Netherlands 8 5 6 19 12 Iran 8 4 3 15 13 Kenya 6 8 4 18 14 Ukraine 6 2 8 16 15 Brazil 5 10 4 19 16 Jamaica 5 6 2 13 17 Hungary 5 2 8 15 18 New Zealand 4 6 4 14 19 Czech Republic 4 5 4 13 20 Canada 3 7 7 17 21 Azerbaijan 3 3 6 12 22 Cuba 3 3 4 10 23 Romania 3 3 2 8 24 Slovakia 3 3 1 7 25 Switzerland 3 1 3 7 26 Belarus 2 8 7 17 27 Spain 2 4 8 14 28 Poland 2 4 6 12 29 Kazakhstan 2 4 4 10 30 Ethiopia 2 1 4 7 31 Croatia 2 1 1 4 32 Sweden 1 4 5 10 33 Greece 1 2 2 5 33 Serbia 1 2 2 5 35 Norway 1 2 3 36 Taiwan 1 1 3 5 37 Georgia 1 1 2 4 38 Bulgaria 1 1 1 3 39 Estonia 1 1 2 40 Ireland 1 3 4 41 Uzbekistan 1 2 3 42 South Africa 1 1 2 43

Turkey 4 3 7 44 Mongolia 2 4 6 45 India 2 3 5 46 Puerto Rico 2 2 47 Denmark 1 5 6 48 Thailand 1 2 3 49 Mexico 1 1 2 49 North Korea 1 1 2 49 Tajikistan 1 1 2 52 Argentina 1 1 52 Botswana 1 1 52 Dominican Republic 1 1 52 Malaysia 1 1 52 Austria 1 1 52 Singapore 1 1 52 Sudan 1 1 52 Vietnam 1 1 60 Egypt 3 3 60 Armenia 3 3 62 Belgium 2 2 62 Finland 2 2 64 Afghanistan 1 1 64 Chile 1 1 64 Ecuador 1 1 64 Grenada 1 1 64 Indonesia 1 1 64 Israel 1 1 64 Colombia 1 1 64 Lithuania 1 1 64 Malta 1 1 64 Morocco 1 1 64 Moldova 1 1 64 Portugal 1 1 64 Slovenia 1 1 TOTAL 302 301 361 964

As you can see in the silver medal total, I must have made a mistake somewhere and missed out a medal, so the medal table is not 100 % correct. The high number of bronze medals is because there are several events (boxing, for example) where two bronze medals are awarded.

But as I showed in 2008, those medal picks are very unreliable anyway, so it's actually only a game: http://www.gamesbids.com/forums/topic/11574-sports-illustrated-medal-picks/page__view__findpost__p__183978

Oops, sorry -- I had hoped that the spreadsheet would be displayed correctly here. But probably you can guess the positions and medal numbers from it anyway. ;)

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Here are the AP picks again formatted. These figures should be right.

I copied the data onto a spreadsheet, extracted the medal and the country from each record and converted the data into a Pivot Table.

(And did alot a cleaning of the data in the process)

When I first did the table, I notice some countries had different variations on their name (ie USA/United States, Great Britian/England, Korea /South Korea, etc) Just make sure a country is not listed twice.

United States_______48 _____29 _____43 _____120

China_______________37 _____27 _____25 _____089

Russia______________29 _____25 _____30 _____084

Great Britain_______25 _____20 _____21 _____066

Germany_____________11 _____25 _____15 _____051

France______________11 _____12 _____17 _____040

Australia___________15 _____13 _____08 _____036

Japan_______________17 _____11 _____08 _____036

South Korea_________09 _____08 _____15 _____032

Italy_______________08 _____05 _____18 _____031

Brazil______________05 _____10 _____04 _____019

Netherlands_________08 _____05 _____06 _____019

Kenya_______________06 _____08 _____04 _____018

Belarus_____________02 _____08 _____07 _____017

Canada______________03 _____07 _____07 _____017

Ukraine_____________06 _____02 _____08 _____016

Hungary_____________05 _____02 _____08 _____015

Iran________________08 _____04 _____03 _____015

New Zealand_________04 _____06 _____04 _____014

Spain_______________02 _____04 _____08 _____014

Czech Republic______04 _____05 _____04 _____013

Jamaica_____________05 _____06 _____02 _____013

Azerbaijan__________03 _____03 _____06 _____012

Poland______________02 _____04 _____06 _____012

Cuba________________03 _____03 _____04 _____010

Kazakhstan__________02 _____04 _____04 _____010

Sweden______________01 _____04 _____05 _____010

Romania_____________03 _____03 _____02 _____008

Ethiopia____________02 _____01 _____04 _____007

Slovakia____________03 _____03 _____01 _____007

Switzerland_________03 _____01 _____03 _____007

Turkey______________00 _____04 _____03 _____007

Denmark_____________00 _____01 _____05 _____006

Mongolia____________00 _____02 _____04 _____006

Greece______________01 _____02 _____02 _____005

India_______________00 _____02 _____03 _____005

Serbia______________01 _____02 _____02 _____005

Croatia_____________02 _____01 _____01 _____004

Georgia_____________01 _____01 _____02 _____004

Ireland_____________01 _____00 _____03 _____004

Armenia_____________00 _____00 _____03 _____003

Bulgaria____________01 _____01 _____01 _____003

Chinese Taipei______01 _____01 _____01 _____003

Egypt_______________00 _____00 _____03 _____003

Norway______________01 _____02 _____00 _____003

Thailand____________00 _____01 _____02 _____003

Uzbekistan__________01 _____00 _____02 _____003

Belgium_____________00 _____00 _____02 _____002

Estonia_____________01 _____01 _____00 _____002

Finland_____________00 _____00 _____02 _____002

Mexico______________00 _____01 _____01 _____002

North Korea_________00 _____01 _____01 _____002

Puerto Rico_________00 _____02 _____00 _____002

South Africa________01 _____00 _____01 _____002

Taiwan______________00 _____00 _____02 _____002

Tajikistan__________00 _____01 _____01 _____002

Afghanistan_________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Argentina___________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Austria_____________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Botswana____________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Chile_______________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Colombia____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Dominican Republic__00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Ecuador_____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Grenadines__________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Indonesia___________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Israel______________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Lithuania___________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Malaysia____________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Malta_______________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Moldova_____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Morocco_____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Portugal____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Singapore___________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Slovenia____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Sudan_______________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Vietnam_____________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Grand Total________302 ____302 ____360 _____964

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These predictions would give new zealand their best games ever in terms of total medals won beating the 13 from Seoul in 1988!

Does anyone know if the Sports Illustrated picks are online yet?

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Here are the AP picks again formatted. These figures should be right.

I copied the data onto a spreadsheet, extracted the medal and the country from each record and converted the data into a Pivot Table.

(And did alot a cleaning of the data in the process)

When I first did the table, I notice some countries had different variations on their name (ie USA/United States, Great Britian/England, Korea /South Korea, etc) Just make sure a country is not listed twice.

United States_______48 _____29 _____43 _____120

China_______________37 _____27 _____25 _____089

Russia______________29 _____25 _____30 _____084

Great Britain_______25 _____20 _____21 _____066

Germany_____________11 _____25 _____15 _____051

France______________11 _____12 _____17 _____040

Australia___________15 _____13 _____08 _____036

Japan_______________17 _____11 _____08 _____036

South Korea_________09 _____08 _____15 _____032

Italy_______________08 _____05 _____18 _____031

Brazil______________05 _____10 _____04 _____019

Netherlands_________08 _____05 _____06 _____019

Kenya_______________06 _____08 _____04 _____018

Belarus_____________02 _____08 _____07 _____017

Canada______________03 _____07 _____07 _____017

Ukraine_____________06 _____02 _____08 _____016

Hungary_____________05 _____02 _____08 _____015

Iran________________08 _____04 _____03 _____015

New Zealand_________04 _____06 _____04 _____014

Spain_______________02 _____04 _____08 _____014

Czech Republic______04 _____05 _____04 _____013

Jamaica_____________05 _____06 _____02 _____013

Azerbaijan__________03 _____03 _____06 _____012

Poland______________02 _____04 _____06 _____012

Cuba________________03 _____03 _____04 _____010

Kazakhstan__________02 _____04 _____04 _____010

Sweden______________01 _____04 _____05 _____010

Romania_____________03 _____03 _____02 _____008

Ethiopia____________02 _____01 _____04 _____007

Slovakia____________03 _____03 _____01 _____007

Switzerland_________03 _____01 _____03 _____007

Turkey______________00 _____04 _____03 _____007

Denmark_____________00 _____01 _____05 _____006

Mongolia____________00 _____02 _____04 _____006

Greece______________01 _____02 _____02 _____005

India_______________00 _____02 _____03 _____005

Serbia______________01 _____02 _____02 _____005

Croatia_____________02 _____01 _____01 _____004

Georgia_____________01 _____01 _____02 _____004

Ireland_____________01 _____00 _____03 _____004

Armenia_____________00 _____00 _____03 _____003

Bulgaria____________01 _____01 _____01 _____003

Chinese Taipei______01 _____01 _____01 _____003

Egypt_______________00 _____00 _____03 _____003

Norway______________01 _____02 _____00 _____003

Thailand____________00 _____01 _____02 _____003

Uzbekistan__________01 _____00 _____02 _____003

Belgium_____________00 _____00 _____02 _____002

Estonia_____________01 _____01 _____00 _____002

Finland_____________00 _____00 _____02 _____002

Mexico______________00 _____01 _____01 _____002

North Korea_________00 _____01 _____01 _____002

Puerto Rico_________00 _____02 _____00 _____002

South Africa________01 _____00 _____01 _____002

Taiwan______________00 _____00 _____02 _____002

Tajikistan__________00 _____01 _____01 _____002

Afghanistan_________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Argentina___________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Austria_____________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Botswana____________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Chile_______________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Colombia____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Dominican Republic__00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Ecuador_____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Grenadines__________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Indonesia___________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Israel______________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Lithuania___________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Malaysia____________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Malta_______________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Moldova_____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Morocco_____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Portugal____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Singapore___________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Slovenia____________00 _____00 _____01 _____001

Sudan_______________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Vietnam_____________00 _____01 _____00 _____001

Grand Total________302 ____302 ____360 _____964

Thanks a lot for your work! There are two little mistakes in your table, though: You have two entries for Chinese Taipei and Taiwan (both are the same country, of course). And the Grenadines are actually Grenada. The AP people got that wrong, Kirani James is from Grenada actually: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirani_James

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I agree that the USA is too high. Some of the athletics predictions seemed quite optimistic. If we hit 100 we'll be doing well. I expect to edge the Chinese, but I think it will be much closer than those predictions suggest.

This is a tiny detail, but I'm surprised nobody has Aly Raisman on the Floor Exercise podium. IMO she's a favorite for gold.

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What is SI's pick for Canada?

From what I read two gold medals, Pendrel and Witten. A few medals in Rowing, too. But generally it looks like if they are right we are heading for our worse Olympics since... Montreal (gold-medal wise).

Full list:

Bronze, Mark Oldershaw, C1 1000m

Silver, Adam van Koeverden, K1 1000m

Bronze, Zach Bell, Omnium

Gold, Tara Witten, Omnium,

Gold, Catharine Pendrel, mountain biking

Bronze, Canada, women's Team Pursuit

Bronze, Benefeito and Filion, women's 10m Synchro Platform

Bronze, Erik Lamaze, Show Jumping

Silver, Karen Cockburn, Trampoline

Silver, Calder and Frandsen, rowing men's pair

Silver, Canada, rowing men's eight

Silver, Canada, rowing women's eight

Bronze, Kathrine Sergerie, taekwondo -67kg

Silver, Dylan Armstrong, shot put

Silver, Carol Huynh, wrestling -48kg

Bronze, Tonya Verbeek, wrestling -55kg

So overall 2-7-7-16. Somewhere between Beijing and Athens in terms of total medals. Only winning two gold would be quite a disappointment, though.

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From what I read two gold medals, Pendrel and Witten. A few medals in Rowing, too. But generally it looks like if they are right we are heading for our worse Olympics since... Montreal (gold-medal wise).

Full list:

Bronze, Mark Oldershaw, C1 1000m

Silver, Adam van Koeverden, K1 1000m

Bronze, Zach Bell, Omnium

Gold, Tara Witten, Omnium,

Gold, Catharine Pendrel, mountain biking

Bronze, Canada, women's Team Pursuit

Bronze, Benefeito and Filion, women's 10m Synchro Platform

Bronze, Erik Lamaze, Show Jumping

Silver, Karen Cockburn, Trampoline

Silver, Calder and Frandsen, rowing men's pair

Silver, Canada, rowing men's eight

Silver, Canada, rowing women's eight

Bronze, Kathrine Sergerie, taekwondo -67kg

Silver, Dylan Armstrong, shot put

Silver, Carol Huynh, wrestling -48kg

Bronze, Tonya Verbeek, wrestling -55kg

So overall 2-7-7-16. Somewhere between Beijing and Athens in terms of total medals. Only winning two gold would be quite a disappointment, though.

A little light. I cannot imagine Ryan Cochrane not medaling and between Martha McCabe, Sinead Russel and Tera van Belien, one of them should win a medal.

Also find it strange that 10m synchro is our medal, I would put Abel in the 3m and Abel and Heymans in the 3m synchro as much more likely.

And I cannot see Canada doing worse then Beijing, especially after all the money and time spent on the programs since.

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